Why Tiger Woods Is A Bad Price At +250....Even If He Wins

[milwaukee mike]

"If its a winner...in my mind there is no such thing as a bad line. You pick winners and you win money..."

so then laying -10,000 on a coin flip that won is an intelligent move? in the long run all that matters is good/bad lines and bonus $. otherwise you could just bet the yankees/fade the nationals every game every year and win 92+ on each, lose 70.

[smitch124]

I give Amby -350 on all coin flips, he still calls them right and leaves me broke. He pro...

[milwaukee mike]

english mike you're going back too far in your analysis.
and you're excluding the very important facts that
1) phil isn't playing
2) the field isn't nearly as close to tiger skill-wise as it was a few years ago

i think tiger has about a 30% chance of winning this week making that +250 about right.

[AMBlai01]

Milwaukee Mike....obviously you don't know my sarcasm.....

[englishmike]

This is a dream moment for me, I've always wanted to do this, so in the style of PAGS11, let me reply:

Art...I've seen a dozen different high profile golfers interviewed on The Golf Channel over the last two days and every single one said the same thing....driving accuracy and greens in regulation, so whilst Tiger is the longest he can also be wayward. If he leaves his driver in the bag on the first few holes on the first day and decides to plot his way round, +250 could look massive......good to have you in MY thread, always good to get your thoughts and GL luck with your plays...........

Papsmear: Casey has an outstanding chance, good to see you in MY thread, GL...........
JJ Dolbin: Great to see you around bud, welcome to MY thread.........
Ray: Wecome to MY thread, good to see you around bud. Great point about this course being 'new,' but whilst that's true I think his status as the best player in the world is slightly negated by a need to be accurate, I think the course set up adds parity to Word Ranking. Great write up though and i'll be honest, the fact very few of these players have played competitive rounds here was something I hadn't factored into anything so it does stand to reason bookmakers will assume the world number one will have a better chance than anyone. GL on your plays, you're always welcome in MY thread......

Smogs: Good to see you around bud, particuarly in MY thread. Grahame Storm is a live outsider and 480-1 is a line gone mad. GL.....

Smitch: You're always welcome in MY thread bud, glad you appreciate my work.........

AMBY: Get out of MY thread.

Headstrong: GL on your plays bud, good to have you aboard.......

Matty: Welcome to MY thread, good to have people of a higher intelligence level such as you and myself in MY thread.....I'll post some picks for sure......

AMBY: Please leave MY thread, we reek of high intelligence, you reek of Grey Goose......

Milwaukee Mike: Although I understand it would be a touger tournament to win with Phil in it, Phil has never won the Open and the field will be closer to Tiger because of penal rough and a demand for accuracy. With that said, I totally see why you said what you did and I guess you need to weigh up if +250 - +280 represents some sort of value to you, and if it does there's nothing to put you off. Always good to have you in MY thread.....

AMBY: You refuse to see my sarcasm, leave MY thread please.

PAGS11: You're always welcome in OUR threads pal........

[raydog]

you left out pavy...which is a good thing

[Willie Bee]

Mike, I was looking at some picks by the so-called experts, and two jumped out at me among their sleepers. What's your take on either Justin Rose or David Duval?

[Smogs]

I had a dabble on Nick Watney and Soren Kjeldson to win their respective 3 balls. Watney was 7/5 and Kjeldson at evs.

In other Sport, i had some of Australia @ 8/5 in the Ashes, now that i have seen the weather and we should get at least 4 days full play.

Good luck with the Open picks guys - initial weather for the morning suggests dry with a light breeze, not the horrific conditions we may see later in the tourney....hopefully lol

[head_strong]

Playing Hunter Mahan @ 33-1....

[andywend]

I wholeheartedly agree that Tiger isn't going to perform well this week and I especially thought so in the 1st round.

Unfortunately, the only golfer that was offered in a head to head matchup with Tiger was the CHOKE ARTIST, overrated Sergio Garcia.

Tiger did his share struggling to stay even in the 1st round but the worthless piece of cow dung Sergio Garcia went double bogey/bogey in the last 3 holes.

When I saw Sergio being the only golfer to bet against Tiger, I had to swallow a lump in my throat betting on him because I know how he squeezes in major events and he did exactly what I expected him to do.

Garcia the "spanish trash" could play in major events for 200 years and never win one.

[Smogs]

I guess you had a large wager on Garcia fella?

I wouldn't touch him with free money

[dwaechte]

This is a dream moment for me, I've always wanted to do this, so in the style of PAGS11, let me reply:

Art...I've seen a dozen different high profile golfers interviewed on The Golf Channel over the last two days and every single one said the same thing....driving accuracy and greens in regulation, so whilst Tiger is the longest he can also be wayward. If he leaves his driver in the bag on the first few holes on the first day and decides to plot his way round, +250 could look massive......good to have you in MY thread, always good to get your thoughts and GL luck with your plays...........

Papsmear: Casey has an outstanding chance, good to see you in MY thread, GL...........
JJ Dolbin: Great to see you around bud, welcome to MY thread.........
Ray: Wecome to MY thread, good to see you around bud. Great point about this course being 'new,' but whilst that's true I think his status as the best player in the world is slightly negated by a need to be accurate, I think the course set up adds parity to Word Ranking. Great write up though and i'll be honest, the fact very few of these players have played competitive rounds here was something I hadn't factored into anything so it does stand to reason bookmakers will assume the world number one will have a better chance than anyone. GL on your plays, you're always welcome in MY thread......

Smogs: Good to see you around bud, particuarly in MY thread. Grahame Storm is a live outsider and 480-1 is a line gone mad. GL.....

Smitch: You're always welcome in MY thread bud, glad you appreciate my work.........

AMBY: Get out of MY thread.

Headstrong: GL on your plays bud, good to have you aboard.......

Matty: Welcome to MY thread, good to have people of a higher intelligence level such as you and myself in MY thread.....I'll post some picks for sure......

AMBY: Please leave MY thread, we reek of high intelligence, you reek of Grey Goose......

Milwaukee Mike: Although I understand it would be a touger tournament to win with Phil in it, Phil has never won the Open and the field will be closer to Tiger because of penal rough and a demand for accuracy. With that said, I totally see why you said what you did and I guess you need to weigh up if +250 - +280 represents some sort of value to you, and if it does there's nothing to put you off. Always good to have you in MY thread.....

AMBY: You refuse to see my sarcasm, leave MY thread please.

PAGS11: You're always welcome in OUR threads pal........

Classic post... Your impression was dead on... I hope more guys get in here to see this.

[pavyracer]

you left out pavy...which is a good thing

You hate everyone, don't you? Don't you have some boring news updates to do?

[PAPSMEAR]

How's the tiger travelling so far?

[raydog]

You hate everyone, don't you? Don't you have some boring news updates to do?

what i hate pavy, is fukking stupidity. half the time nobody knows if you are being serious or not with your posts. we dont know if you are just a dumbass or you are trying to be funny and failing miserably. you obviously opened your mouth about something and had no fukking clue what you were talking about. heaven forbid someone call you out. clueless fukks, who dont even think golf is a sport, should not open their cokksucker in a golf thread when they dont know what they are talking about.

i just might do some news real soon. at least one of us has a personality and good sense of humor.

[PAPSMEAR]

you're all fired up with your posts today raydog...get back back in your kennel, lick your balls and have a nap

[raydog]

yeah, i woke up early and on the wrong side of the bed with a hangover. i dont like pavy giving me shit for pointing out the obvious.

got some players doing well and tiger played like shit today. thats what we wanted. if you like tiger, now is the time to buy him

[Matt Rain]

what i hate pavy, is fukking stupidity. half the time nobody knows if you are being serious or not with your posts. we dont know if you are just a dumbass or you are trying to be funny and failing miserably. you obviously opened your mouth about something and had no fukking clue what you were talking about. heaven forbid someone call you out. clueless fukks, who dont even think golf is a sport, should not open their cokksucker in a golf thread when they dont know what they are talking about.

i just might do some news real soon. at least one of us has a personality and good sense of humor.

Damn!

[Matt Rain]

Oh and Mike, you freak! STRICKER!!!

[smitch124]

This tourney is no fun without wind, I like it when the pins are horizontal

[Smogs]

We need tiger to throw some clubs!!

[jayc88]

If its a winner...in my mind there is no such thing as a bad line. You pick winners and you win money...

[pavyracer]

Hey raydog you stupid ignorant dogshit! How can you not giving me credit for my brilliant prediction of telling everyone to fade Tiger at the British Open? Why do I want to overpay for Tiger +250 when the guy is playing horrible? So everyone that doesn't agree with your golf predictions is stupid? Didn't I just stated my opinion about the British Open like anyone else? Who's is looking stupid now you fukking square?

[englishmike]

When I stated in my original post I wouldn't play Tiger at +250 I also said I thought he could win and what a mistake that was! Before he can win he has to make the cut and make no mistake, that's what he's playing for tommorow with wind gusts of 40KPH forecast, and let's not gloss over his poor play, 51 golfers shot par or better so there are no excuses. At one-over-par he's already a long way back and if I had to guess the cut I'd say +2 or +3, so one false move tommorow could be catastrophic and although I never thought I'd hear myself say it, I honestly think the quest to beat Jacks record is becoming harder and harder mentally each time he enters a major, it must be a lot of pressure to be expected to win.

The good news is the books still seem to think he's a live +550 chance, () which is good because all it means is there are great golfers out there with a good score who have an inflated line and stand a far more realistic chance. Take for example Ben Curtis. Curtis won The Open in 2003, missed three straight Open cuts and was then T8th in 07 and T7th in 08, so basically, if he makes an Open cut he goes close. Curtis is 6 shots clear of Woods already and is available at +1600 whilst Tiger is +550 and quite frankly that's not just illogical, it's crazy.

Another great example is Steve Stricker. He's already won twice on the PGA tour this year with another 4 Top Tens and is 5 clear of Tiger already and is also priced at +1600, which is absolutely unfathomable when you consider Strickers last two Opens are identical to Curtis's, T7th and T8th. The point i make is there are around a dozen golfers who are a better price than Woods with a considerably better chance of winning which makes this a fantastic betting proposition and the bottom line is you are gambling with an unquestionable edge in price if you swerve Tiger.

[PAPSMEAR]

I don't think +265 is any value anyway - if I ran a book I'd let the brainless faithful get on for as much as they liked at that price. He is a 100% fade in the British Open. I don't expect him to finish top ten

[PAPSMEAR]

lay tiger like a two hooker in the back of a panel van

[head_strong]

Nice call PAPSMEAR!!! You could have made a bunch of $ off me with that not finishing in the Top 10 offer, not only did he not finish in the Top 10 but missed the cut for only the 2nd time in a major since turning pro. Pretty amazing.....