CrazyLou's posted tennis record for the last year

[MrMonkey]

Matty's position as Tennis-handicapping-evaluator evaluator is now being severely questioned.

PART II!

[tacomax]

Yes, I understood that was your point. But Crazy doesn't flat bet so I'm not sure how useful that information is. If he varies bet sizes based on probability of outcome and his predictions are accurate then his actual $Won could be quite significant. But, since we don't know it would be pure speculation.

But, since Crazy doesn't tell people what bet sizes to use then I'm not sure how useful his picks are.

No question that single unit bets across the board actually mask what would otherwise be a massacre in terms of units lost. When you have a pick entitled A tennis play that I'd liquidate my possessions for... that's a loser at -560 then it makes your record so much better to only have a -5.6u loss rather than a -560u loss. That's when you end up like Daggerkobe and have a -300u record from the French open.

Oddly enough, that tournament (and his tennis record) is missing from Daggerkobe's signature - ironic when he was very vocal in criticising CrazyLou for fudging his figures.

[yisman]

But Crazy doesn't flat bet so I'm not sure how useful that information is.

Remove the word 'flat' and you have your answer.

[Chi_archie]

WOW!!!!! I remember you were working on this one day in chat......


kudos of the year for fishing through all the archives and posts to get this info..... Matty is poster of the year for 2009 IMO

[Justin7]

Mr. Rain,

I don't have time to look at every pick I've ever made. Any chance you could look at all my posts, and tell my my record?

[Chi_archie]

I'd like to know my immortal frickin deadbolt record......


I think over the past 8 months i've made about 8-10 of them..... I think I only lost 2 thanks... also do curious, pavy, sammy, bobby, and cockknockers records...

[SBR Lou]

Worth pointing out, as Matt Rain even alluded to, at least 80 plays are missing.

[tacomax]

I will take some time to collect my thoughts before addressing this topic.

Come on Lou, the longer it takes the worse it looks. I'll help you out with a few excuses.

1) The sample size is too small.

2) They were not flat bets and, ironically enough, you bet a lot less on the headline grabbing locks than most of the winners. And Fed to win the French was a 50 unit play.

3) You have an outstanding record on your non-posted plays.

4) You don't actually bet so you're not incurring any losses.

Justin7 is nudging you towards 3) but I think taking a combination of any 2 of the first 3 would be a sufficient response.

[tacomax]

Wow. I'm fukkin' psychic.

[Chi_archie]

when is a sample size large enough? 1000 plays? serious question

[RogueScholar]

Mr. Rain,

I don't have time to look at every pick I've ever made. Any chance you could look at all my posts, and tell my my record?

Did you lose all the information when you deleted all of those plays out of your spreadsheet last year?

[Chi_archie]

why would he delete his spreedsheet picks?

[tacomax]

when is a sample size large enough? 1000 plays? serious question

It largely depends on far the record deviates from the mean (the mean being where the actual return is equal to the expected return based upon the inferred probabilities in the odds). In such a way that you could ascertain a very dodgy roulette table in 50 spins but not be able to ascertain a slightly dodgy one in 500 spins.

[Fischnasty]

so is a "liquidate your assets" play capped at -1850 very dodgy or just slightly dodgy?

[tacomax]

He had another 25 -1850 winners that he didn't post so the -1850 plays actually showed a nice profit.

[xxdjstriderxx]

[Justin7]

why would he delete his spreedsheet picks?

I didn't want my wife or anyone else to see how much I lost on Arena Football or NCAAF teasers.

[Matt Rain]

Mr. Rain,

I don't have time to look at every pick I've ever made. Any chance you could look at all my posts, and tell my my record?

I will gladly do so if I ever feel that you're full of baloney. That doesn't seem likely.

[xyz]

if you fade him, you should be up

I am not sure about that. Book's vig on tennis odds is typically very large.