CrazyLou's posted tennis record for the last year

VegasDave · 07-12-09, 10:41 AM

Wow, pretty fascinating stuff Matty

.

The only problem of course (but one that you handled as best you could) was the flat 1 unit betting.

- Solid play for tomorrow
- Liquidate your assets play
- If this loses I'll never post tennis play again
- Small lean for tomorrow's action

Probably aren't all created equal.

englishmike · 07-12-09, 10:44 AM

I thought that. Are we assuming he played one unit to win 0,2 units on his -500's or have I got it wrong?

Matt Rain · 07-12-09, 10:46 AM

I had to weigh every bet as 1 unit cause he neglected to state how many units were "played" on a bunch of them.

Over a sufficiently large sample size though (say 5000 plays), I don't think his ROI (-12.4% btw) would be affected that much by bet sizing.

Matt Rain · 07-12-09, 10:47 AM

Originally posted by englishmike

I thought that. Are we assuming he played one unit to win 0,2 units on his -500's or have I got it wrong?

Like I said, x units to win 1 on faves, so 5 units to win 1. The default American way.

pico · 07-12-09, 10:47 AM

if you fade him, you should be up

englishmike · 07-12-09, 10:50 AM

Originally posted by Matt Rain

Like I said, x units to win 1 on faves, so 5 units to win 1. The default American way.

Matt Rain · 07-12-09, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by pico

if you fade him, you should be up

You'd only be up a handful of units, but yeah.

Mods or techs - is there any way to go back farther than a year? I'm not satisfied with a mere 149 picks.

yisman · 07-12-09, 11:27 AM

You can go back further, but not by searching his posts.

Anyway, nice job. I'm stunned that he's down so little. I guess he's gotten worse over the past few months, because he's definitely down more than that recently.

yisman · 07-12-09, 11:34 AM

weird gap. In the Tennis forum history, it jumps from http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...is-13-feb.html to http://forum.sbrforum.com/tennis-han...nnis-guys.html

over 27 months of threads missing.

SSLP · 07-12-09, 11:36 AM

kids barrelled in

InTheHole · 07-12-09, 11:41 AM

Good Job...too bad you couldn't account the "half your bankroll" plays.

xxdjstriderxx · 07-12-09, 11:44 AM

this thread is a winner.

dont forget the liquidate your posessions plays either.

i guess he must not have too many valuables in his home LOL

tacomax · 07-12-09, 03:10 PM

Excellent work by Matty showing why he is the best Tennis-handicapping-evaluator evaluator at SBR.

SBR Lou · 07-12-09, 03:36 PM

I will take some time to collect my thoughts before addressing this topic.

Fischnasty · 07-12-09, 03:43 PM

matty rain for poster of the month

Fischnasty · 07-12-09, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I will take some time to collect my thoughts before addressing this topic.

we'll be waiting

RogueScholar · 07-12-09, 03:45 PM

Originally posted by CrazyLou

I will take some time to collect my thoughts before addressing this topic.

His first instinct was just to call Matty the C-word, but considering recent events, that was obviously quite impolitic. He's now consulting with the Mod on duty to find out which words are okay to call Matt.

Fischnasty · 07-12-09, 03:46 PM

pete

Matt Rain · 07-12-09, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by tacomax

Excellent work by Matty showing why he is the best Tennis-handicapping-evaluator evaluator at SBR.

I'll soon have a certification program coming out in audiobook form.

Matt Rain · 07-12-09, 03:47 PM

Originally posted by RogueScholar

His first instinct was just to call Matty the C-word, but considering recent events, that was obviously quite impolitic. He's now consulting with the Mod on duty to find out which words are okay to call Matt.

xxdjstriderxx · 07-12-09, 03:48 PM

mods sticky plz thx

EaglesPhan36 · 07-12-09, 03:50 PM

Funny how one person can go through the archives in a few days and post Lou's record, but Lou can't track his own record.

Fischnasty · 07-12-09, 04:01 PM

willie bee is going to have to drive over to lou's place to make sure hes not pulling a david carradine

j0hnnyv · 07-12-09, 04:04 PM

this is priceless. matty rain is an early favorite for poster of the month!!

RogueScholar · 07-12-09, 04:21 PM

I was just thinking, without that Federer future, he'd be down nearly 30 units for the year...

No wonder that's his first line of defense when addressing perceived shortcomings in his "model" and its "filters".

The HG · 07-12-09, 04:29 PM

oh man....what an intense thread.

could be seismic repercussions from this thread

in Stalinist Russia Matt Rain would disappear, forget about get "banned", for a thread like this

I am not going to come out publicly on record and discuss Matt Rain for poster of the month, the atmosphere is VERY tense and unpredictable, I feel it best to lay low and not say much at the present time

jjgold · 07-12-09, 04:34 PM

Matty great job

Lou, Soprano and lots of others here have ZERO credibility with picks

curious · 07-12-09, 04:43 PM

I think your method of coming up with your conclusions about Crazy's results is totally bogus. Crazy doesn't flat bet. Your statement that the outcome could not be affected by bet size variation is not true. That would only be true if the range of the bet size variation was small. Since you don't know what Crazy's bet size range is then you can't say that the outcome would not have been affected by bet size variation.

tacomax · 07-12-09, 04:45 PM

Matty's position as Tennis-handicapping-evaluator evaluator is now being severely questioned.

MrMonkey · 07-12-09, 04:50 PM

This thread has the potential to be quite entertaining!

Matt Rain · 07-12-09, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by curious

I think your method of coming up with your conclusions about Crazy's results is totally bogus. Crazy doesn't flat bet. Your statement that the outcome could not be affected by bet size variation is not true. That would only be true if the range of the bet size variation was small. Since you don't know what Crazy's bet size range is then you can't say that the outcome would not have been affected by bet size variation.

I'll concede that Ganchrow, Justin et al. are much more qualified than I to substantiate the quality of CrazyLou's record. I guess all I can say is that I lined up his picks and, if one were to flat-bet the exact same picks, they'd be hitting 53.4% where they needed to hit 61.54% to break even. Small sample size too.

I wanted to keep compiling his picks and release the spreadsheet once I reached 500 picks, but I spilled the beans about what I was doing and some people disputed my figures. Here they are.

nosniboR11 · 07-12-09, 05:01 PM

Wow Rain, good job, all i can say is your the Man

pavyracer · 07-12-09, 05:15 PM

This may be off topic but if you add his NBA playoff record to the Tennis record he is not doing well either with no chalk or little chalk.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/178683-mushylous-week-nba-terror.html

curious · 07-12-09, 05:19 PM

Originally posted by Matt Rain

I'll concede that Ganchrow, Justin et al. are much more qualified than I to substantiate the quality of CrazyLou's record. I guess all I can say is that I lined up his picks and, if one were to flat-bet the exact same picks, they'd be hitting 53.4% where they needed to hit 61.54% to break even. Small sample size too.

I wanted to keep compiling his picks and release the spreadsheet once I reached 500 picks, but I spilled the beans about what I was doing and some people disputed my figures. Here they are.

Yes, I understood that was your point. But Crazy doesn't flat bet so I'm not sure how useful that information is. If he varies bet sizes based on probability of outcome and his predictions are accurate then his actual $Won could be quite significant. But, since we don't know it would be pure speculation.

But, since Crazy doesn't tell people what bet sizes to use then I'm not sure how useful his picks are.