Why work so hard to be normal, when God created you to stand out?
Duke +2 1/2
Georgia -10
Arizona St +5
Have a great Saturday!
Duke +2 1/2
Georgia -10
Arizona St +5
Have a great Saturday!
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Ranger , GLComment -
odom clowned him
propz sammyComment -
Gonna give your picks a look & consideration.
GL RFComment -
Sammy brokeComment -
Ranger , stay focusedComment -
My man, I hate to be a dick or a broken record, but I have to ask.
Why take the 2.5 with Duke? The odds Northwestern will win that game by 1-2 points is less than 1%.
You can get Duke at +120 right now.
I am going to preach this until you guys realize you are letting cash on the table. If you lose the game, you save 10 cents. If you win the game outright, you left 30 cents on the table.
Over the course of a season, it matters.Comment -
My numbers say Duke wins by 1. I'm taking the extra 3.5 points in my view. Pointspread edge and moneyline edge are two entirely different wagers. You have to first determine your edge on each. Now I agree there is an edge moneyline on Duke. But I find that the bigger edge is taking 2.5.
It's debatable on which wager one should take here but long term I think playing the point spread is the better edge IMOComment -
Appreciate the answer. I really do, most guys don't respond when I ask them that question.
Long term there is absolutely no question the play is the ML.
I created this thread right here on SBR.
Let me quote myself...
From 2013 thru 2017 there were 2832 games in 1-A. Of those 2832 games, there were 265 games (9.3%) where the close was 2.5 or less. That's 9% of your available games that close at 2.5 points or less.
Of those 265 games, 4 of them ended with the underdog covering with either +1.5, +2, or +2.5. That is 1.5% of the total games. In other words, 98.51% of the time, if you took the +1.5, +2, +2.5, the numbers would make absolutely no difference whatsoever....
Don't confuse your power numbers with the probability of the event outcome being Northwestern winning by 1 or 2 points.
The probability of that happening is about 1.5%. I gave you 5 year data, 10 year data is even more convincing. 10 year data suggest the outcome of a dog needing those 1-2 points is 1.1%.
A dog needing 1.5-2-2.5 has to win ATS has happened 7 times (1.1%)
7 times in 612 games over the last 10 years in NCAA Football taking the points would have helped you. 7.
On the other hand, dogs getting those numbers won outright last year 19 times. Just last year.
Good luck, I hope you win it.
Cheers, man!
Appreciated you not getting all pissed off, some guys are too sensitive on these boards if you ask them a question.Comment -
Nah man I like feedback like this. It can only make me better. I appreciate the history. But my main question is the sample. Is it a big enough sample to determine that those numbers hold over 10,000 play's? Those numbers are pretty convincing but I think for one to determine anything number wise you need at least 10K in samples, something I learned in statistics class in college. Again I appreciate the feedback as I will take this in consideration in the future when determining which way to go a far as M/L or pointspread.Appreciate the answer. I really do, most guys don't respond when I ask them that question.
Long term there is absolutely no question the play is the ML.
I created this thread right here on SBR.
Let me quote myself...
From 2013 thru 2017 there were 2832 games in 1-A. Of those 2832 games, there were 265 games (9.3%) where the close was 2.5 or less. That's 9% of your available games that close at 2.5 points or less.
Of those 265 games, 4 of them ended with the underdog covering with either +1.5, +2, or +2.5. That is 1.5% of the total games. In other words, 98.51% of the time. if you took the +1.5, +2, +2.5, the numbers would make absolutely no difference whatsoever....
Don't confuse your power numbers with the probability of the event outcome being Northwestern winning by 1 or 2 points.
The probability of that happening is about 1.5%. I gave you 5 year data, 10 year data is even more convincing. 10 year data suggest the outcome of a dog needing those 1-2 points is 1.1%.
A dog needing 1.5-2-2.5 has to win ATS has happened 7 times (1.1%)
7 times in 612 games over the last 10 years in NCAA Football taking the points would have helped you. 7.
On the other hand, dogs getting those numbers won outright last year 19 times. Just last year.
Good luck, I hope you win it.
Cheers, man!
Appreciated you not getting all pissed off, some guys are too sensitive on these boards if you ask them a question.
Cheers back at ya brah
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2 down one to goComment -
Looking goodComment -
I had the Duke moneyline Range...lol.
I post my NCAAF Upset Baskets and Quant would probably be pleased with the small moneylines it takes.
Good work so far Range but I am on the other side of tonight's game...
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Looking good so far. Let's get the late oneComment -
Oh no that kangaroo!I had the Duke moneyline Range...lol.
I post my NCAAF Upset Baskets and Quant would probably be pleased with the small moneylines it takes.
Good work so far Range but I am on the other side of tonight's game...
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Good Work Range!
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It is called sweeping the board
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nice work Range Finder......keep it up, brother!...
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Really nice job, Range.
Well done!Comment
