KVB Total Return Fund

[milwaukee mike]

I understood about 1/3 of that. This your profession grease?

I think his suggestion that 2 year bonds paying 2.5% are better than preferred stocks like bhr-b, cdr-c, etc that pay 7%+ is pretty silly

people thinking that rates will eventually go way up have been wrong for years and years, and will continue to be wrong... taking a return that is less than inflation (net of taxes) is no way to build up net worth

[Auto Donk]

Donk asked for link to donate



Did NOT donate

Wow

you fukkin' idiot....

I know you're on a very tight leash around here.....

slander my name again and I'll make sure you're gone.....

going the venmo route, as I want all the money I donate to go to Andy and his family; gofundme rakes 5% of all donations and charges a 3.5 perc transaction fund......

venmo free, and all the money goes where you want it to......

f'n unreal what a p o s you are....

[KVB]

Agreed Mike, and the fundamentals of the equities seem to still be rocking.

I adjusted the Fund, but then sold out of many positions to take profit. I should have gotten back into those stocks as things are really booming.

[KVB]

you fukkin' idiot....

I know you're on a very tight leash around here.....

slander my name again and I'll make sure you're gone.....

going the venmo route, as I want all the money I donate to go to Andy and his family; gofundme rakes 5% of all donations and charges a 3.5 perc transaction fund......

venmo free, and all the money goes where you want it to......

f'n unreal what a p o s you are....

Rudy's bitch does not try to be an honest guy, just wants to harm, not help.

Thanks for pointing out yet another useless trashy post from Rudy's bitch.

[Auto Donk]

i may have the fn idiot perma banned.....

just happened to see this shit here (why he posted it in your thread is beyond me), and if he did so elsewhere I'll hammer his ass.......

[KVB]

...Along with these two Funds, there are currently 4 other Funds I may opt to rotate into as the season progresses.

KVB NCAAF ATS/ML Fund

KVB NCAAF OVER Basket

KVB NCAAF UNDER Basket

KVB NCAAF UPSET Basket

Links are to the original posts for these strategies and those Total Baskets should generate lot of plays this year and produce a decent field from which to pick Total plays...

As much as Id like to give a large list of slightly positive plays to graze from as posters apply their own betting and compare, those OVER and UNDER baskets are too much to work and post.

I am not going to regularly track those baskets at SBR.

Just being clear here. I may move into them then I will track them in this thread, but the weekly tracking is too much.

[jjgold]

As long as you have some sort of weekly records that’s fine

[KVB]

As long as you have some sort of weekly records that’s fine

Wanted to post many different strategies over the whole season, but it's too much. For now the season long ones will be the basic Spread, ML, Totals for NCAAF and the UPSET Basket, which has a different set of regressed criteria.

[unde0087]

What is going on in here?

[KVB]

What is going on in here?

At the moment posting my NCAAF Total plays in here, that's really it.

Hopefully trade some stocks, but may use the cash for other sport plays, we'll see.

[jjgold]

KVB you must have lots of spreadsheets

[Auto Donk]

looks like the resident idiot didn't last long..... apparently got himself banned again in less than 24 hours or so.......

[Auto Donk]

[KVB]

KVB you must have lots of spreadsheets

Yeah Gold, I'm a mess right now, lol.

I will generate winners and maybe analysis, there is a lot monitor.

[KVB]

looks like the resident idiot didn't last long..... apparently got himself banned again in less than 24 hours or so.......

Crazy, last posts seemed fine.

I actually thought he might come around and avoid drama. He can't help it. If you need to boast about how you are the best or have to say you aren't creating drama, it's not going to go well.

The boasting is so tout like and he's known for it. So who knows.

It's a shame was going to give everyone a fresh start for the Fall, not skip over posts and give them a chance.

Too bad, he might know NCAA Foots, he might, was going to check his plays to see if we were involved in anything similar.

[Auto Donk]

Crazy, last posts seemed fine.

I actually thought he might come around and avoid drama. He can't help it. If you need to boast about how you are the best or have to say you aren't creating drama, it's not going to go well.

The boasting is so tout like and he's known for it. So who knows.

It's a shame was going to give everyone a fresh start for the Fall, not skip over posts and give them a chance.

Too bad, he might know NCAA Foots, he might, was going to check his plays to see if we were involved in anything similar.

I was going to tail his ass.....

as far as "foots" are concerned, if I ever meet him, after that slanderous bullshit he put up about me, it will be my "foots" upside his ass.....

drama queen just couldn't help himself.....

[Millerlite]

[paco]

Kvb Goodluck! Tell the wife I said hello.

[Auto Donk]

kvb's wife a class act......

she'll never put her man in this position:

[jjgold]

Lol good one

[KVB]

I am moving $10,000 into in the KVB NCAAF Market Reads Fund.

The description is below, the forecast is a stacking percentages forecast and the position will be aggressive.

Each position will risk 3.5% or $350 and there could be multiple positions if the line changes, but only if the line changes.

The first play is in and all further plays will be posted here, in the Total Return Fund Thread while the position is open in the Total Return Fund.

...The KVB NCAAF Market Reads Fund will consist of market reads based on the action we've seen during the day. It will consist of forecast predictions and overlay the same market analysis as the other NCAAF Funds but will add one more element. It will overlay existing market conditions to further refine potential market reads.

This will not be a basket, but could comprise more than one play some nights. The manager element comes into play as I will need to choose the best market reads for the evening based on what ever perceived edges we can find. I will not play every "advanatagous" play uncovered, I will personally try to weed out the losers.

This can result in manager error, something I try avoid with most Funds, but this risk is what makes this fund different.

The first play in this fund is BYU +10 (-104) over Arizona....

These are the market reads and while they may be made closer to the closing line than is ideal, I will be trying my best to predict the movement and get the best number.

Some reads will wait to trigger until very late, as the plan is to counter the anticipated move.

These plays are both risky and good, it will be up to me to mitigate the risk.

These plays are the fruits of the labor of the war room.

Good Luck.

[KVB]

Here's the day's NCAAF Totals Fund results...

			Risk 2.5%	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average
0-1	30-Aug	NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110)	-250	49.5	N	-2.5
0-1-1		UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113)	0	69	Y	4
1-1-1		WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110)	227.27	56	Y	1.5
2-1-1	31-Aug	W KENT/WISC UNDER 52 (-108)	231.48	52	PUSH	0
3-1-1	1-Sep	KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-105)	238.1	57	N	-0.5
3-2-1		WASH/AUB OVER 49.5	-250	50.5	Y	1
3-3-1		WASH ST/WYO UNDER 45.5 (-102)	-250	45	Y	0.5
3-3-1		Total	$9,946.85		4-2-1	0.571429

This is good, I expect a stronger performance as the early season moves on.

Nice to be about even now.

It's crude, but I the Fund has a jump on the closing line as well.

[jjgold]

You survived which is excellent and gambling going to bed

[KVB]

I may consider splitting this 10k for the Market reads and really get aggressive with some of it. They should be decent plays.

		Risk 3.5 %	Closing	Beat	BTC ATS
Date	NCAAF Market Reads Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average
1-Sep	BYU +10 (-104)	336.54	11	N	-1
		$10,337		0-1-0	-1

[KVB]

The NCAAF Totals Fund has picked up

MIA/LSU OVER 47 (-108).

Good Luck.

[jjgold]

KVB ths is moving day on a 3 day weekend

We look to you to make adjustments and be in position tomorrow to go for the kill

[KVB]

Light day today, we need patience.

Then we go for the kill.

But it's never what it seems.

[Auto Donk]

guess I'll have to find something to do while we patiently wait.....

maybe practice on my new drum kit.....

[jjgold]

😂😂😀

[KVB]

Without making any moves like selling a position or adding cash, I have room for one more decent sports Fund buy, but will have to sell or add cash to buy pretty much anything else, sports or stock wise.

I am moving $10,000 into the KVB MLB Contrarian Fund. I will be aggressively betting 3.5% or $350 of the bankroll per bet. This means, on days with something like 10 bets, there will a decent percentage of this Fund at play.

My expectation per bet indicates that over time there is a slim chance of catastrophe while the upside is chance is pretty good, even when roughly accounting for the varying prices of bets. The risk is acceptable.

The MLB Contrarian Fund will continue to be tracked with SBR Contest prices in it's usual place but the actual bets made, as generated, will be tracked here, in the Total Return Fund Thread.

Those numbers and prices will differ, but this thread represents all real tickets. The contest numbers represent bets I made, but obviously they aren't the real tickets I buy each day. The overall increase to my Contrarian Fund daily bets isn't much with this thread added, but I've also increased the units for the Contrarian Fund in general.

I will put the best price I get, as I will likely get many different prices as I bet the games.

Counting on some short term success here in the last month.

[unde0087]

This guy is printing money in here

[paco]

There’s the Over!

[KVB]

Here are the NCAAF Totals plays...

			Risk 2.5%	Closing	Beat	BTC
Record	Date	NCAAF Totals Fund	$10,000	Line	Closer?	Average
0-1	30-Aug	NM ST/MINN UNDER 47 (-110)	-250	49.5	N	-2.5
0-1-1		UCF/CONN UNDER 73 (-113)	0	69	Y	4
1-1-1		WAKE/TULANE UNDER 57.5 (-110)	227.27	56	Y	1.5
2-1-1	31-Aug	W KENT/WISC UNDER 52 (-108)	231.48	52	PUSH	0
3-1-1	1-Sep	KENT/ILLINOIS UNDER 56.5 (-105)	238.1	57	N	-0.5
3-2-1		WASH/AUB OVER 49.5	-250	50.5	Y	1
3-3-1		WASH ST/WYO UNDER 45.5 (-102)	-250	45	Y	0.5
4-3-1	2-Sep	MIA/LSU OVER 47 (-108)	231.48	47.5	Y	0.5
4-3-1		Total	$10,178.33		4-2-1	0.5625

And here are the Sports funds at work in this thread with 3 NCAAF Funds operating wtih 10k each...

Name	Open	Closed	Quantity	Proceeds/Value	CostBasis	Total Gain/Loss ($)	Total Gain/Loss (%)
Blended Value	5/29/18	7/17/18	1	$5,000.00	$5,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
CFL Sharp Forecast	7/17/18	8/20/18	1	$8,375.00	$10,000.00	-$1,625.00	-16.25%
NCAAF Totals	8/29/18		1	$10,178.33	$10,000.00	$178.33	1.78%
NCAAF Market Reads	9/1/18		1	$10,337.00	$10,000.00	$337.00	3.37%
MLB Contrarian	9/3/18		1	$10,000.00	$10,000.00	$0.00	0.00%
Totals						-$1,109.67

[jjgold]

CFL not a good idea

Bad leagues=unpredictable

[grease lightnin]

I think his suggestion that 2 year bonds paying 2.5% are better than preferred stocks like bhr-b, cdr-c, etc that pay 7%+ is pretty silly

people thinking that rates will eventually go way up have been wrong for years and years, and will continue to be wrong... taking a return that is less than inflation (net of taxes) is no way to build up net worth

The title of this thread is “total return”, right?

How much do think you will get in total return on a preferred or a reit (cdr-c) paying a 7% dividend if the 10yr goes to 4%? Go look at the returns on those since the election. It is negative even with your dividend.

I belive we have got most of the upside in the 10yr yield that we will get until Europe and Japan tighten their monetary policy. But what happens then, Mikey?

In my post, I was saying if you want fixed income, you may look at some short term individuals vs bond funds. I didn’t say, you should buy 2yr bonds instead of stocks.

But it is probably best for me to stay out of this conversation.

Peace and cheers, fellas.