Tuesday's PEP Squad...Cheering SBR on!

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 01:25 AM

I would go KC RL +120... I think Greinke shuts them down... Home RL's may be tricky, as you say, but good thing KC is on the road... I understand Greinke has been shaky, but Hou is the right team for him to get his groove back. Not sure which pitchers they have hit off of lately, but there's no way I like that offense better than Greinke.. No way

head_strong · 06-23-09, 01:30 AM

Originally posted by Razz_Donkey

What's up guys, no other games that look interesting? Head strong, hope to hear some more of your wisdom in here tonight.

First games that stick out to me are:
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Angels

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 01:33 AM

Glad to see you in here Head Strong. You were 100% correct about the Mets, excellent work. I really like STL in a bounce back situation. LAA is a bold pick especially with the Rockies current form. Whats the word with Santana being back on the mound for LAA? Is he healthy and ready to perform?

head_strong · 06-23-09, 01:35 AM

I'm showing O'Sullivan getting the start....

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 01:38 AM

Hmmmmmmm, I've seen Santana listed as well. Let me see if I can find out for sure. Now, O'Sullivan is a rookie with one previous start, correct?

head_strong · 06-23-09, 01:38 AM

I recognize the current outstanding play of the Rockies, they are on an unbelievable run. However, if the Angels line remains as is (-115) or continues to climb I'll be obligated to make that play whether I want to or not. I'm projecting a 10:1 ratio on the Rockies.

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 01:41 AM

Makes sense head strong, the Angels opening as favorites is certainly one of those

feelings. The public should love siding with the Rockies as dogs, this could be a great fade situation.

head_strong · 06-23-09, 01:43 AM

Originally posted by Razz_Donkey

Hmmmmmmm, I've seen Santana listed as well. Let me see if I can find out for sure. Now, O'Sullivan is a rookie with one previous start, correct?

I really don't care who is starting, honestly I'm not a big stat guy, not that I don't follow them but I leave the number cramming to the books. The books have the formula and seem to know everything about everything, me trying to figure that all out is next to impossible. I trust the numbers and generally try to stay away from trying to figure out who, when, how, why it works out the way it does.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 01:45 AM

Bet against Jimenez tomorrow??? No freakin way!

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 01:48 AM

Again head strong, very true. The Books always have more access to the numbers. Trying to find a soft line in MLB is basically fruitless. Which leads me to this question; does the opening line for the Red Sox seem odd to you? I know the Nats have had their fun recently, but how is it that they're only small dogs to the Sox?

Can't help but feel like I'm getting reeled in here...

head_strong · 06-23-09, 01:53 AM

Originally posted by Razz_Donkey

Again head strong, very true. The Books always have more access to the numbers. Trying to find a soft line in MLB is basically fruitless. Which leads me to this question; does the opening line for the Red Sox seem odd to you? I know the Nats have had their fun recently, but how is it that they're only small dogs to the Sox?

It does but it doesn't, I can see this as being the so called #1 "public fade play". As strange as it may sound opening the Red Sox at -150 or higher would drive a lot more money on the Sox. Keeping the # low gets people asking questions, like is this a trap play. You could also develop reasoning for backing the Nats, taking 2 of 3 from the Yankees and BlueJays both from the AL East. The books did a good job with this line and will probably have the $ coming in close to even due to the paranoia and the ones thinking they are fading the public. I personally am staying away from this game.

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 02:01 AM

Great insight as usual head strong. My initial reaction was to jump on board with the Sox, partly due their record against lefties. I can't help but feel paranoid here though. While we have you here, would you care to shed any light on another two very public teams? I see the Yanks have opened as dogs to Atlanta and Philly is a decent sized dog against Tampa. Do you see the public backing the Yanks even with Wang on the bump? Also, Moyer has been great against Tampa in the past which is a team that struggles with lefties. Phils have been a strong road team this year but have a few holes in their lineup without Howard and Ibanez. Do you forsee them continuing their slide?

head_strong · 06-23-09, 02:12 AM

I can't give any defiant numbers without getting all the information 1st, only 10% of peoples plays have been posted so far, so things could change before game time tomorrow. Just my opinion, the only one I could come close to guaranteeing is the $ will be strong on the Braves line and runline. People will continue to fade Wang and rightfully so as his #'s are terrible, as well as the Yanks dropping 4 of 5. I don't have opinions on every game as I generally only make 2 plays per day (normally in different time slots) and am usually happy to find 2 that qualify.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 02:14 AM

Glad to see backing of my Braves Run Line play...

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 02:20 AM

Thanks so much head strong, your views here have been very enlightening. We are all grateful for your contributions. I'll definitely keep my eyes out on the STL and LAA lines. I'm going to take a look at the CWS as well, instinct tells me that there is something interesting about their match with LAD. Please continue to drop in when you are able to, I hold your posts in the highest regard. Best of luck in your research and your plays.

head_strong · 06-23-09, 02:38 AM

No problem Razz, I enjoy talking theory and helping out fellow cappers whenever I have the time to do so. Is "CWS" the College World Series or the Chicago White Sox you are referring to? If it's College World Series I'm not touching that tonight.....despite everything pointing towards Texas, the public pounding LSU, the line way too low, I ignored all the warning signs and backed Coleman and LSU and nearly paid dearly, I had no business winning that bet and learned my lesson despite LSU pulling out the late miracle, I'll be the 1st to admit Texas should have won that game. GL to you as well, hope you cash tomorrow.

head_strong · 06-23-09, 02:39 AM

Sorry I see now you were referring to the White Sox and Dodgers Game, my bad.

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 02:52 AM

Thanks head strong, that was a very exciting match in the college world series. Glad to see LSU pulled that one out for you, I couldn't believe it myself. I was referring to the White Sox, was surprised to see them opening as a favorite against the Dodgers. Kuroda has been a fairly poor road performer but has still maintained a decent ERA. Lefties have struggled against the Dodger lineup so this looks like an interesting match, not to mention early movement on the total. I always try to keep an eye on the teams the public likes to bet (Dodgers being one of them and for good reason, they've been winning like crazy this year) and try to sniff out a good fade. Not sure how much support the Dodgers will get from bettors, but its worth a look. Thanks again and hope to see you cash as well.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 03:14 AM

How about the Marlins RL?? The ML is pretty much a pick 'em. Andrew Miller can neutralize their lefty hitters, leaving Adam Jones or Nolan Reimold as the only 2 who could pound him hard. While Jones and Reimold are doing well, I think Miller could pitch around the righties and get the majority of the outs vs the lefties.

I could see a Fla RL at home. And the payout is like +190... I think that could be a sharp play

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 03:16 AM

Let me check up this game TIK, glad to see you looking into some more games. I got a good feeling about Tuesday's action.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 03:18 AM

Thanks Razz... I was thinking I got myself locked into a headstrong Atl, Kc and Sf play to try and "show" fakergirl what's up... But then I decided to look around a bit... The Fla game could be very profitable...

head_strong · 06-23-09, 03:26 AM

Originally posted by TheIntegrityKid

Thanks Razz... I was thinking I got myself locked into a headstrong Atl, Kc and Sf play to try and "show" fakergirl what's up... But then I decided to look around a bit... The Fla game could be very profitable...

Hope I didn't confuse you by my post....I was giving my opinion on where I thought the $ would be for the Braves/Yankees game. In fact my 2 favorite plays as of now would be the Yankees and Angels.

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 03:32 AM

Marlins are batting .185 and slugging is .359 in the last 3. Bullpen has been average. Orioles are hitting .321 slugging .477. Bullpen has been stellar. FLorida last played NYY, and BAL last played Philly. Both teams won their series. The line is basically even... Most bets appear to be on the Marlins... What do you think TIK?

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 03:37 AM

I like the Fla Rl... And sorry if I confused you head strong.. Was thinking you liked Atl too...

If Fla can whoop the yanks, and miller is coming on a bit, why can't they beat the O's?

But I think I now know how PEP is gonna go... I'll make an instinct pick, and Razz will tell me if that's good or not based on hard numbers. Fla is another team that I see making a nice lil run. With Philly and the Mets faltering, this could be a nice lil race between Atl and Fla for the East...

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 03:57 AM

TIK, I'm gonna turn in for the night. Looking at the Florida game, it seems like an interesting spot. Both teams have been finding wins against tough opponents. I'm not sure which team is hotter at the moment. O's just came from a hitters park which may skew their numbers a bit. FLA played a slumping Yanks, but found a way to win even against tough pitching. I tend to agree that Miller will put a decent start for them, he's looked good so far. I don't have much of a lean at this point. Its a weird spot, both of their last opponents have impressive pedigree's but neither one put up much of a fight. I'm not sure how to gauge the recent performance of these two teams.

Interesting to see that you are looking into the Yanks head strong. Gonna wait and see how things shake down for tomorrow, hopefully get some lineups finalized and some public trends identified. You guys have a good night.

TheIntegrityKid · 06-23-09, 04:41 AM

I'm out too... Remember, my picks are ATL RL, KC RL, SF ML, FLA RL

just thought I'd post them again and that way when I come back, I can see what everyone thinks... I'll prob be around at 6et or earlier if I can make it...

Hope to see you all there and let's hit a parlay!

head_strong · 06-23-09, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by head_strong

Hope I didn't confuse you by my post....I was giving my opinion on where I thought the $ would be for the Braves/Yankees game. In fact my 2 favorite plays as of now would be the Yankees and Angels.

Yankees are no longer a game of interest for myself, too much $ coming in on them so they will not qualify.

Dbldown11 · 06-23-09, 10:44 AM

Well boys it wasnt pretty for me last night going 0-3....but I've got 6 6:00pm games on tap for tonight. Go with your favorites from the list, or pick them all cause it's gonna be a 6-0 night

Phillies +155
Nasty Nats +114
Idians -102
Blue Jays -143
Tigers -125
Yankees +103

Razz_Donkey · 06-23-09, 12:11 PM

Thanks for posting DD. Best of luck tonight. I'll be out and about throughout the day, but I'm going to look into some games a bit more later. There seem to be a fair amount of home dogs or small favorites that the public is against which might provide some decent fade spots. See you later in the afternoon.

forloveofthegame · 06-23-09, 12:21 PM

good afternoon everyone... i just looked over the lines and have found some great plays for the day my favorite is reds ml great value here. also on the giants under cubs under and the seattle and baltimore ml. first look i was high on the nats but now im not so sure. lets get something worked out

dreamjob · 06-23-09, 03:19 PM

What's up guys? I just wanted to see what's going on. Apparently not too much. Thats ok we still got about 3 hours till game time. Time to look and see who i like for tonight.

Minkus · 06-23-09, 03:22 PM

hey fellas...whats the deal so far?

dreamjob · 06-23-09, 03:24 PM

Not much minkus i just got on. What are your picks so far?

Minkus · 06-23-09, 03:27 PM

ive been busy since 7am ..im just looking at them now...

went 3-0 yesterday.

dreamjob · 06-23-09, 03:28 PM

Originally posted by Minkus

ive been busy since 7am ..im just looking at them now...

went 3-0 yesterday.

Congrats, nicely done