Monday's Positive Energy thread

[TheIntegrityKid]

CUB/ATL: Both of these starters are plain studs, but can't seem to get any damn run support from their teams. Last 3 outings have fetched 5 team runs for Dempster and only 4 for Vazquez. The Cubs pitching has been the main key to their success this year, but their bats seem to be heating up (or was it just the terrible bullpen of the Indians?) The Braves are coming off an impressive (but losing) showing against Boston and look to improve their record at home.

A couple of interesting things about these clubs: The Braves 12-17 at home but .500 on the road. Cubs are 13-18 on the road. Cubs are 3-9 when listed as dogs. Both clubs deserve "underachievers" awards.

This one comes down to pitching as I see it. I expect solid outings from each starter, it just depends on who gets the most help. Sure, the Cubs have won 4 straight but three of them came at the hands of bullpen meltdowns. Atlanta's bullpen has sported a .417 WHIP in 7 innings of use in the last 3 games! I think the Braves can get this one taken care of, I'll lean ATL(-135)** and the Under 8 (-110)*.

Razz... our energies must be aligned because you keep siding with the teams that I like for tomorrow...

we both like sf, col, stl AND atl... wow!

[lakerboy]

i think minkus has been drinking like he was on game 7 night when his wings went down to his junior rival sis the kid

[Minkus]

i think minkus has been drinking like he was on game 7 night when his wings went down to his junior rival sis the kid

what

I dont drink mommas boy. Just give it time, she will be finished soon

[Minkus]

im done with trying to help you lakerboy.

[Razz_Donkey]

Razz... our energies must be aligned because you keep siding with the teams that I like for tomorrow...

we both like sf, col, stl AND atl... wow!

Yeah, i don't know if its a good or bad thing at the moment considering my recent form.

I'm not sold on SFO and am having second thoughts on STL right now.

Lets get some more discussion here, why is the Mets line set so low while they're at home? And what about the A's, does -150 seem suspicious considering they were swept by SFO two weeks ago?

[TheIntegrityKid]

Okay okay... you guys have all complained about this thread being bogged down with too many posts unrelated to picking winners....

So let's stick to what we wanna accomplish here...

I like Sf, Atl, Col and Stl tomorrow.... Razz seems to as well... Let's get some more picks, based on the star system from you guys and we can see what we wanna do...

[TheIntegrityKid]

Yeah, i don't know if its a good or bad thing at the moment considering my recent form.

I'm not sold on SFO and am having second thoughts on STL right now.

Lets get some more discussion here, why is the Mets line set so low while they're at home? And what about the A's, does -150 seem suspicious considering they were swept by SFO two weeks ago?

Where can I find line movements?? Is there a place that tracks them specifically??

[Minkus]

Razz

Redding hasn't beaten the Cardinals since 2004....

[Minkus]

TIK

List the games of what you two like again, please.
Dont add any more on the post
thanks

[lakerboy]

just for you razz

Cubs ml
Cubs over
Cards 9.5

[Razz_Donkey]

Where can I find line movements?? Is there a place that tracks them specifically??

Vegas Insider does, but who knows how reliable they are. We won't see any significant line moves until the morning anyway. I was referring more to the opening lines, does anything look off to you considering how we broke down the games?

[Minkus]

just for you razz

Cubs ml
Cubs over
Cards 9.5

over or under?

[lakerboy]

cards over 9.5

[TheIntegrityKid]

This is what I said earlier Minkus:

***Col ML--- if Kershaw could hold the Angels, Cook should be able to as well

**Atl ML--- Vazquez is the pitcher that will cool down Chicago

*Stl ML--- Prob more of an instinct pick, but I like Wellemeyer over Redding. Plus, the Stl bats have been better recently

I also like Sf...but not enough to make them an official 1, 2 or 3 star

[Razz_Donkey]

just for you razz

Cubs ml
Cubs over
Cards 9.5

Thanks lakerboy. I like the Cards over 9.5. Not sold on the Cubs, but I'll think about it. Care to elaborate as to why you see Cubs winning and the over?

[Minkus]

Lakerboy

i like that cubs ml..over 8 is my only dissagreement

[TheIntegrityKid]

Vegas Insider does, but who knows how reliable they are. We won't see any significant line moves until the morning anyway. I was referring more to the opening lines, does anything look off to you considering how we broke down the games?

I'm not experienced to know if something looks off... Unless the game has a ridiculous number attached to it, I'm thinking that the line is an reflection of the money thrown on either side...

I do think it's important to look for prices. But the winner should be found first, regardless of price. And then we can sort thru whichever price we like.

The only price that seems to scare me is the Braves being favored by so much at home. I thought it'd be close to a pick 'em or even the Braves being a home dog, which would've been ideal...

[Minkus]

dempster 2-10 lifetime against braves

[lakerboy]

Thanks lakerboy. I like the Cards over 9.5. Not sold on the Cubs, but I'll think about it. Care to elaborate as to why you see Cubs winning and the over?

cubs bats are starting to heat up - they will rock vazquez plus cubs allow runs- the 8 is misleading

[TheIntegrityKid]

The sample isn't that good but I found something that details each hitters record vs opposing hitters in the Cubs vs Braves matchup

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2009_06_22_chnmlb_atlmlb_1&mode=preview

go to that site and scroll to the very bottom.... the sample size is VERY small... but the cubs hitters do better vs Vaz than the Braves hitters to Dempster

[TheIntegrityKid]

While going 0-2 with a 2.54 ERA in his past four outings, the 32-year-old right-hander has limited opponents to a .173 batting average and .206 on-base percentage. The durable veteran has completed eight innings in each of his past two starts and exited with a loss. He is 0-1 with a 5.93 ERA in his past five starts against the Cubs.

[TheIntegrityKid]

Vazquez can flat out pitch... but he doesn't have much of a record vs the Cubbies.... Hard for me to pick against him for tomorrow tho... I like Atl in this spot... Willing to look at the over/under tho...

[lakerboy]

u always like atlanta

[TheIntegrityKid]

Nope... I loved the Bos Rl the other day and then Atl spanked them 8-2...

[Razz_Donkey]

I'm willing to differ here, my favorite play was NYM/STL over 9.5. The Atlanta and Oakland games were tossups to me. I liked Atlanta a lot more than the under 8.

[TheIntegrityKid]

Yeah, the Cubs-Braves will prob be over, as Faker pointed out.... I have no official opinion on the Oak game other than I think Sanchez will neutralize Oak's lefties, so my instinct says SF wins...

[lakerboy]

agreed nointegritychild

[TheIntegrityKid]

agreed nointegritychild

[head_strong]

Hadn't read all the previous post yet and don't know if some of you have already spoken on this.....but I can't figure out why the slumping Mets are favored over the surging Cards. I will probably be forced into backing the Mets if this line doesn't drastically change, without a doubt the $ will be coming in strong on the Cards so the line change should reflect that, if not I'll likely take NYM.

[Razz_Donkey]

Hadn't read all the previous post yet and don't know if some of you have already spoken on this.....but I can't figure out why the slumping Mets are favored over the surging Cards. I will probably be forced into backing the Mets if this line doesn't drastically change, without a doubt the $ will be coming in strong on the Cards so the line change should reflect that, if not I'll likely take NYM.

I asked the same question earlier. My initial lean was on the Cards, but this line looks off to me. Come to think of it, the same goes for ATL. Money is already coming in strong on STL and CUB. Good post head strong, I'm looking forward to see what else you think about these games.

[KingRevolver]

u always like atlanta

You just noticed?

[head_strong]

I asked the same question earlier. My initial lean was on the Cards, but this line looks off to me. Come to think of it, the same goes for ATL. Money is already coming in strong on STL and CUB. Good post head strong, I'm looking forward to see what else you think about these games.

With such a small card tomorrow it shouldn't be very difficult to gauge exactly which teams have the most $ coming in on them. I've only reviewed 100+ post thus far (early posters) so it's still too early for myself to commit on anything just yet. I'd estimate I scan through nearly 2000 post per day, then see if the line movement (runlines) reflect what I see, as well as the perception the consensus sites are trying to project.
No comment on the Cubs/Braves game as of now, I see the $ coming in closer to even then most might think.

[Razz_Donkey]

Good stuff head strong, you clearly are putting in a lot of research. If you don't mind sharing, what is the most accurate place to find out where money is coming in? Its hard to tell because so many of the sites differ in their numbers.

[head_strong]

According to scoresandodds.com Soriano is also listed Doubtful.

[KingRevolver]

Alright fellas...keep up the good work!