Yankees open new stadium today, value play..

[VegasDave]

The value is there win or lose. The line is unquestionably inflated and sharps are responding to that if you examine the market right now.

Most dog bettors wait until the last minute to let the public get in on the fave, not just sharps.

If this exact game was played 100 times, do you believe that the Indians would win this game 35 times or more?

Personally, I don't really think so. It is probably right around that number. CC is the much better pitcher, it is in New York, etc.

I get what you are saying. But I think so many people were planning on fading the Yanks in their opener based on the logic that there would be huge value in it that when it is all said and done, it kind of evened out. +190 isn't a terrible price at all considering CC could blow up, etc, but it really isn't the super-duper value you are cracking it up to be.

[dwest718]

Cliff Lee can't blow up? Assuming +190 is value is assuming 1) Cliff Lee is actually a solid pitcher and last year wasn't an aberration, 2) Cleveland isn't one of the worst teams in the AL, and 3) C.C. is going to pitch before the all-star break like he did last season.

Yankees lines are always inflated so there is always value betting against them. But is there actually more value here than normal? Some of you guys seem to think so.

[dwest718]

Most dog bettors wait until the last minute to let the public get in on the fave, not just sharps.

If this exact game was played 100 times, do you believe that the Indians would win this game 35 times or more?

Personally, I don't really think so. It is probably right around that number. CC is the much better pitcher, it is in New York, etc.

I get what you are saying. But I think so many people were planning on fading the Yanks in their opener based on the logic that there would be huge value in it that when it is all said and done, it kind of evened out. +190 isn't a terrible price at all considering CC could blow up, etc, but it really isn't the super-duper value you are cracking it up to be.

Wow

We are on exactly the same page.

[laxdjock]

While I generally agree with that thinking Dave....I think people are undervaluing CL based on 2 starts. I consider this much closer to a toss up, which increases the "value" aspect.

GO CLE!

[dwest718]

Or just not realizing that last season was a complete and total aberration.

[Tsoprano]

Lou the Mush has gone to work

Yankees is a

[VegasDave]

While I generally agree with that thinking Dave....I think people are undervaluing CL based on 2 starts. I consider this much closer to a toss up, which increases the "value" aspect.

GO CLE!

If you considered this a toss-up, or even a 40/60, you got GREAT value, so good luck

[Flyers09]

i got em -1.5 for first 5innings
-200 first 5
-200 ml for game

and they are not on the board i cant see the game, can someone tell me wtf is going on here???

[tacomax]

]
and they are not on the board i cant see the game, can someone tell me wtf is going on here???

CC just gave up a grand slam. Your 5 inning bet is looking shaky.

[Flyers09]

figures....just figures...

[SBR Lou]

Indians get on the board first in the 4th, 1-0.

[Flyers09]

wtf...last time i listen to sbr posters on the mlb i woke up late and had no choice....figures.....

[dwest718]

Was anyone on Yankees 1st 5?

The only reason the Indians scored was because Johnny Damon played a fly ball like a little league outfielder. Didn't react in time, misjudged twice, and then just let it fly over his head. Not sure how its so hard to just the spin of a high outside fastball off the barrel of the bat but oh well. C.C. is pitching pretty well. Lee is also pitching solidly... both have made a few small mistakes. If the Yankees stretch this inning out, the Indians are screwed because the only guy they have in the bullpen is Wood. 4 innings of Indians bullpen = Yankees easy win.

[Flyers09]

1st 5 for me

[dwest718]

1st 5 for me

What I'm saying is you can't blame SBR posters for that.

[Flyers09]

What I'm saying is you can't blame SBR posters for that.

the thread was like 2 pages long and everyone but one person was betting that along with the ml....i shouldda known cause the yankees starting pitcher itsnt that good...i saw him play before and hes over weight and useless, and his ears get in the way of his eye sight

[SBR Lou]

the thread was like 2 pages long and everyone but one person was betting that along with the ml....

Yeah the Indians certainly weren't the "popular" side in this thread, to be honest that actually made me feel somewhat better about Cleveland. Game is far from over but the Yanks do not look like -210 favorites, and to think some thought the line could've been higher.

[Flyers09]

Yeah the Indians certainly weren't the "popular" side in this thread, to be honest that actually made me feel somewhat better about Cleveland. Game is far from over but the Yanks do not look like -210 favorites, and to think some thought the line could've been higher.

thats what im getting at, this is my fault for betting this game...oh well nhl should make up for it tonight


Lets go BlueJackets(i know im dreaming) lol

[dwest718]

... More people in this thread are on the Indians as a "value play" than anything else.

And Sabathia is an elite pitcher after the All Star break. Above average before. To say he's not that good is just false. Lee has gotten lucky a few times and had a few good innings. Pitching much better than his previous starts.

[tacomax]

and his ears get in the way of his eye sight

I'm sure that even Ganchrow doesn't make use of the ear factor in his betting models.

[VegasDave]

Yeah the Indians certainly weren't the "popular" side in this thread, to be honest that actually made me feel somewhat better about Cleveland. Game is far from over but the Yanks do not look like -210 favorites, and to think some thought the line could've been higher.

When you said you were surprised the line wasn't higher, I thought you meant the line should be higher, which would be over-reactionary because the line is already inflated due to it being the Yankees and their opening game in new stadium, etc.

You didn't seem to disagree BEFORE the game started.

[Flyers09]

well last time i saw him pitch i was disgusted, prolly just an off day, it happens i sappose

[SBR Lou]

You didn't seem to disagree BEFORE the game started.

I'm not sure I agreed with anything you said. The line was inflated enough, I did not agree that it could or should have been higher for absolutely any reason.

Win or lose here, too much attention in this thread was focused on Cliff Lee's prior two starts. -210 was and is ridiculous.

[Tsoprano]

Crazylou, you are such a shitty "handicapper"

[dwest718]

It's hopeless for Indians backers. Dac is on the Indians.

[VegasDave]

I'm not sure I agreed with anything you said. The line was inflated enough, I did not agree that it could or should have been higher for absolutely any reason.

Win or lose here, too much attention in this thread was focused on Cliff Lee's prior two starts. -210 was and is ridiculous.

I NEVER said it SHOULD be higher.

There was speculation that it could be as high as -300.

Considering their ROAD opener with CC on the mound was at -195, home opener in the new stadium VS. a 2-7 team (1-5 away), how would a line jump of more than -020 or so been that shocking?

You were going to start this thread and talk about value even if the line was +145/-165, because you believed in principal that this line was going to be grossly inflated. You didn't make any mention of what you felt the true line for this game should have been, or how far off this line was.

[Flyers09]

can you say PUSH!

[pavyracer]

3-1 Indians

[UnDeRDaWg]

Yankee collapse..here we go...

[SBR Lou]

3-1 Indians

4-1 now, Bases loaded as well. I realize we are on the wrong side though, after all, speculation was the Yanks could've been as high as -300. Maybe in the wet dream of sportsbooks and wise guys, .

[dwest718]

Your bet is turning out so you get to talk shit about how you were right. Like guy said on the first page "I see what you did there."

[VegasDave]

4-1 now, Bases loaded as well. I realize we are on the wrong side though, after all, speculation was the Yanks could've been as high as -300. Maybe in the wet dream of sportsbooks and wise guys, .

Lou, just because the bet looks great doesn't mean it changes what was speculated in the past. This makes no sense .

All the same, I hope you got some money on it... hope it hangs on for you Cleveland backers .

[pavyracer]

All over Indians tonight. Cy Young winner at +192? Are you kidding me? Thank you people.

9-1

[SBR Lou]

10-1.

When you have the best pitcher on Cleveland's roster as almost a 2-1 dog against a team that is more overvalued than the Los Angeles Lakers, it doesn't take a ouija board to determine the side.

[Shark79]

9-1

Cant wait to see balance go up up up !!!!