Nash 2015 MLB Thread

[stevenash]

Best Plays for Satuday (evening games)

Cards/Dodgers UNDER 7.5

Dodgers aren't touching Wacha in St. Louis and Cards can't covr the 7.5 by themselves.

[swordsandtequila]

Mets/Marlins over 7.5 is the best total IMO on the day docket.
Marlins actually hit LHP pretty good, and Niese is the type of LHP they like to smack around.
Slappy Dee Gordon hits LHP,and Prado, so does Ozuna and his power.
If Ichiro starts, even though he's 100 years old, he's still a .400 stick. He's been killing lefties since his Japan days.
Then you have the Stanton factor.....

And Koehler for Miami really doesn't scare anybody either.

Yeah, I think the 7.5 here is easily obtainable.

That's the play.

The lean is Reds over also.
Still looking at that.

[stevenash]

^
Thanks

And Wacha is no hitting LA in the sixth.

[pacman63]

Ok so it was the cards who couldn't touch Frias and Wacha who ran out of gas but in the end another great play Nash and thank you for all your DD

[alamo]

Cards/Dodgers UNDER 7.5

Dodgers aren't touching Wacha in St. Louis and Cards can't covr the 7.5 by themselves.

This one went the complete opposite to the way you had it drawn up but we still came out with the right result !

[stevenash]

The epitome of the prhase "Luck is the residue of design"

You draw up a plan, you execute it, it doesn't win the way you drew it up to win, but it won.

[Big Bear]

This one went the complete opposite to the way you had it drawn up but we still came out with the right result !

i guess the other shoe finally dropped for Wacha

he was due for a regression

[GIVEMETHEMONEY]

Any plays for today stevenash? Did you and Manu Ginobili ever kiss in make up after head butting way back when? hehe

Talk about an aggressive NBA play that was it!!

I tailed you the other day on the under and won. Thanks!

[stevenash]

Mr. Anderson and the Dodgers over the Cardinals.
We'll talk about that after I take my two puppy dogs to Lake Moheagan.
But yeah, I like LA and Anderson.

[Smoke]

[Capybara]

Like 8 over +14* pretty much.
I have a guy tracking my record though.

Nashy, good job lately, sharp plays and leans yesterday. Lol @ you have a guy. Will he be appearing in here bimonthly or something with your official updates?

I wish I could stay out of the casino so I could keep betting baseball, as I was doing well, but I can't, because apparently I have a problem. :-(

[stevenash]

Any plays for today stevenash? Did you and Manu Ginobili ever kiss in make up after head butting way back when? hehe

Talk about an aggressive NBA play that was it!!

I tailed you the other day on the under and won. Thanks!

Dodgers -101 and OVER 8.5 Houston / White Sox

[BayArea888]

Mr. Anderson and the Dodgers over the Cardinals.
We'll talk about that after I take my two puppy dogs to Lake Moheagan.
But yeah, I like LA and Anderson.

Walking my dog helps me sort out my plays too!

[stevenash]

Walking my dog helps me sort out my plays too!

And keeps them from pooping the as well.



Holy crap, Nasher took an 0-fer this afternoon.

I suck at this.

[BigDeem5]

Like 8 over +14* pretty much.
I have a guy tracking my record though.

Keep crushing, pal

[stevenash]

Tonight's best bet

(dropped two plays yesterday, hey !, I'm only flesh and blood, what? You think I was going to keep running off streaks of six? Not bloody likely lol)

Arizona with Archie Bradley -102

I don't get the -102 line.

Alex Wood did me very well last start at +167 if you remember, he did me very well indeed, and Archie Bradley's last start was abysmal, I get that, actually his last three haven't been good, but he's capable, he opened up the first three weeks of the season throwing what they call 'quality starts'.

Wood is a decent lefty, not Steve Carlton or Kershaw, or even Cliff Lee, but I can't wrap my head around the fact he's a road favorite in Phoenix against a team that mauls LHP.

Like Goldschmidt, who hammers LHP, here's the break down, look at what Pollock does, and the rest.

BATTING
NAME	GP	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
A.J. Pollock	17	41	11	16	4	1	1	6	25	5	5	2	0.39	0.457	0.61	1.066
Nick Ahmed	16	29	4	11	0	0	2	5	17	5	4	0	0.379	0.486	0.586	1.072
Paul Goldschmidt	19	39	6	14	2	1	3	12	27	6	10	4	0.359	0.444	0.692	1.137
Jeremy Hellickson	2	3	0	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.333	0.333	0.667
Mark Trumbo	20	38	7	12	1	1	4	8	27	4	5	0	0.316	0.381	0.711	1.091
Aaron Hill	16	31	3	9	0	0	0	2	9	2	6	0	0.29	0.333	0.29	0.624
Ender Inciarte	23	49	7	14	0	0	0	5	14	2	5	1	0.286	0.333	0.286	0.619
Yasmany Tomas	13	24	1	6	2	0	0	6	8	2	6	1	0.25	0.308	0.333	0.641

It's the Atlanta Braves for the love of God, yeah they got Freeman and Markakis in the middle of the order, but that's not Ruth and Gehrig, and the 2015 Braves ain't the '27 Yankeees.

Now, I'm not saying Bradey and the Snakes should be -150, hardly, but they shouldn't be a pick 'em at home.
Line should be what they called in the good old days, back in the the day 5 1/2 - 6 1/2, or -120 or so.

Favorable price, home team that kills LHP is the reason why I like the Snakes tonight.

[Big Bear]

good write up

[tennis005]

Rockies have hit Kershaw, and kendrick blows. I was thinking of doing over 9.5 and parlaying that with Arizona +1.5 (which was sitting at -165)

Which teams do you think will score over 4 runs today? I am looking for a 2 team parlay for team run totals?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

bradley hasn't been the same since he got hit in the head.

maybe it's mental who knows but he's definitely not the same pitcher.

[Capybara]

I had the same thought about the snakes. Bradley just needs to relax out there and his stuff will do the rest. I have a strong feeling he bounces back tonight. They should not be home dogs to Atlanta, that's nuts. Having said that, if he throws the ball all over the map again, he's getting sent down.

How about the unders in San Diego and San Fran?

[Ra77er]

I love the writeup as well Steve, good work.

Having said that,

I see very thin value on Arizona here much like Bear's wang probably, but they are certainly the right side to me. Grabbing a +101 is tempting.

[stevenash]

bradley hasn't been the same since he got hit in the head.

maybe it's mental who knows but he's definitely not the same pitcher.

Few encouraging things I heard about Bradley earlier.
He's pretty much over that.

We'll see, he's in a very nice spot tonight.
Very nice.

[Vinnie Paz]

I'm worried about that 17 inning'er last night

Is that logic too square?

[stevenash]

Keep crushing, pal

Thanks Deemer, hope your Indians keep raking.
That's a scary good crew there in Cleveland.
You got some nice front line pitching, you got relief that won't (usually) burn you.
Nice team.

[stevenash]

I'm worried about that 17 inning'er last night

Is that logic too square?

Not at all, which is why the price is probably the way it is. -103 right now.
Bradley had better be good, he has to go seven inning, piss poor or light's out.
Both Brews and Snakes had to use starters in relief.

[stevenash]

Rockies have hit Kershaw, and kendrick blows. I was thinking of doing over 9.5 and parlaying that with Arizona +1.5 (which was sitting at -165)

Which teams do you think will score over 4 runs today? I am looking for a 2 team parlay for team run totals?

Being I just saw this, out of the games left, Dodgers and Giants should score 4 +, both teams have guranteed ninth inning at bats as well.

[Vinnie Paz]

Being I just saw this, out of the games left, Dodgers and Giants should score 4 +, both teams have guranteed ninth inning at bats as well.

Giants at home vs cole. Did you mean some other team?

[stevenash]

Giants at home vs cole. Did you mean some other team?

Brain fart I meant Pirates.
I hate when I do that.

[tennis005]

not looking good so far. I parlayed Mets over 3, Pitt over 3.5 and Seattle ML

I was thinking at worse mets would give me a push, lets see how it finishes. I think Vogelsong has gone back to elite status with Madison. Last 5 games he has given up 4 runs.

[Ra77er]

I might be crazy but Im considering backing Guthrie again +122 for the Royals at home has to be a trap!!

[El Nino]

I might be crazy but Im considering backing Guthrie again +122 for the Royals at home has to be a trap!!

Wahoos bash Guthrie... http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvsp...5370/teamId/5/

[Ra77er]

I have that factored in Nino and I still come up with Royals -120. Carrasco is hot vs KC hitters as well. Thanks for the link though, this one is much easier to read everyday (I adjust batting to 2 AB's and pitching to 10 AB's personally)....secret sauce ingredient incoming

http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/matchup.htm

[stevenash]

Late game total

That Arizona bet of mine last night is among the top 10 crappy wagers I have made in the last year.

Watching it was like getting waterboarded, After the first inning I thought the reports of Bradley being back to form were valid, than bang, the f'n pitcher breaks it open in the second with a hit, and to compound matters, I'm sitting there in the third inning wating for the Snakes bats to start cranking, nothing, fourth inning, nothing, fifth inning, nothing, and on and on and on.....

It was like I made a shitty wager (and I did) and the baseball gods are going to punish me further by making me watch it.

That makes three straight losses for Nasher, but like Jimmy V. said "don't give up, don't ever give up"

40 minutes to first pitch, I won't get long winded here.

GIANTS/PIRATES UNDER 7

(reminder, I'm on a 3 game cooler folks)

[R.P. McMurphy]

Agree on Bradley with ya Nasher. Of course he's gonna say the right thing for his career and people not to lose confidence. Hes scorched earth till he proves otherwise on field from here on and autofade for side/total or both. Bol tonight!

[STAX]

gl Nash... I'm really big on Angels tonight. Got them at +105 earlier and just pounded more at +112. Also got this parlay:

312340665-1	6/2/15 9:06pm	$20.00	$324.60	Pending	4 Team Parlay
				Pending	6/2/15 9:40pm MLB Baseball 959 Atlanta Braves -107* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Arizona Diamondbacks (S Miller - R must Start J Collmenter - R must Start)
				Pending	6/2/15 10:10pm MLB Baseball 961 New York Mets +101* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Diego Padres (N Syndergaard - R must Start I Kennedy - R must Start)
				Pending	6/2/15 10:15pm MLB Baseball 963 Pittsburgh Pirates +109* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Francisco Giants (A Burnett - R must Start C Heston - R must Start)
				Pending	6/2/15 10:05pm MLB Baseball 976 Los Angeles Angels +112* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Tampa Bay Rays (C Archer - R must Start C Wilson - L must Start)