NFL SBR Consensus

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2590810 Aug 28 08:00 PM	Aug 28 07:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [120] TENNESSEE PK-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2590811 Aug 28 08:00 PM	Aug 28 07:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [121] SAN FRANCISCO +3-125	12.50 / 10.00

Ticket#:2590813 Aug 28 08:00 PM	Aug 28 07:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [126] NEW ORLEANS -3-125	12.50 / 10.00
Ticket#:2590814 Aug 28 08:00 PM	Aug 28 07:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [128] DALLAS +2½-105	10.50 / 10.00

***

Ticket#:2590812 Aug 28 08:00 PM

Aug 28 07:52 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [123] CHICAGO +4-110

11.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Arizona +3 (+105)
Oakland +4.5 (-110)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

overall: 22-22
*** plays: 4-1
amount wagered: 483.50
amount won: -21.50

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2597158 Sep 04 08:30 PM

Sep 04 08:18 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [461] GREEN BAY +5-110

11.00 / 10.00

[KVB]

…The concept of following the money can be a dangerous weapon in a bettor’s arsenal. I believe that for this thread, eventually, you’ll find that a more sophisticated marketplace will catch up to such an easily available piece of information. Keep tracking, should be interesting.

It’s a lot like season average statistics and typical box score information. If you are winning early with these, eventually the lines and marketplace will adjust and edges will disappear. Good bets disappear and worse, become losers. Turning to less popular, more predictive stats, will help sharpen that edge.

It’s the same with the flow of money. If you can discover less popular, more predictive ways to watch the money flow, you will have an edge on information and a very dangerous edge on the marketplace. This is where the ‘how you use your information’ really comes into play. This takes a lot of experience but should get everyone thinking…

When this was posted the overall record was 11-3. It looks like the marketplace did indeed catch up here. There is a lot to learn from the preseason results alone; a lesson in money management for one.

At 11-3 or 12-2 it’s easy to see many bettors increasing their wagers. A nasty stretch comes and look at what happens to them…at 50-50 they are down much more than the vigorish paid. Many bankrolls have fallen to this folly.

The reverse can also be true. A losing streak hits so bettors pull back and bet less. When the win streak comes, they don’t get what they deserve. In this case, it could be better to make less plays, as opposed to betting less per play.

Simply put, and I’ve posted something like this before, jiggling bet size will change the breakeven point, and usually not for the better.

Not to hijack the thread, but the Forum could ask themselves…Any other lessons that can be gleaned from preseason results alone? In my opinion, this is actually a good exercise. The closer you pick apart the results, the more you can learn. Some secrets you keep for yourself.

I have said more than once that a 50-50 bettor is close to breaking out to be successful. Of course, 44 plays aren’t many, but this thread presents a good start. Weed out some losers, find a few winners and…well you know.

Combining the flow of money with other handicapping methods can really up a bettor’s game.

It takes work to be a consistent winner.

Good work MattE. Keep tracking.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

spot on KVB. with the record it had going into the last week of preseason no surprise how it ended. with this basically tracking when the books win and lose, if the info is correct, do you think the books try to give some back in the last week before season starts in hopes of boosting up the egos of bettors for the season?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

double post

[ItsMeMrMattE]

can anyone explain to me what the best bets are on the consensus. i know it says Beat the Prick contest picks but what does that mean?

[Ghenghis Kahn]

it means whatever you pick as your best bet counts as 2 units instead of 1. seems like everyone is picking ne as their best bet. just take miami and thank me later.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2601049 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:49 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [464] ATLANTA +3-109	10.90 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601050 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:49 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [466] ST. LOUIS -3+105	9.52 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601051 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:49 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [467] CLEVELAND +5½-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601060 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:50 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [470] PHILADELPHIA -10-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601061 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:50 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [471] OAKLAND +6½-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601062 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:50 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [473] CINCINNATI +1-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601094 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [475] BUFFALO +6½-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601095 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [477] WASHINGTON +3+105	9.52 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601096 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [480] KANSAS CITY -3-119	11.90 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601097 Sep 07 01:00 PM	Sep 07 12:52 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [481] NEW ENGLAND -3-125	12.50 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

*** plays
ATL
PHI
OAK
BUF
KC
STL

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2601360 Sep 07 04:25 PM	Sep 07 04:14 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [483] CAROLINA +4½-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2601361 Sep 07 04:25 PM	Sep 07 04:14 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [485] SAN FRANCISCO -3-120	12.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Indianapolis +7.5 (-110)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

New York +6.5 (-115)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2602385 Sep 08 10:20 PM

Sep 08 09:58 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [491] SAN DIEGO +3-110

11.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

overall: 32-28
*** plays: 8-3
amount wagered: 660.30
amount won: +12.60

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2605067 Sep 11 08:25 PM

Sep 11 08:18 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [101] PITTSBURGH +2½-105

10.50 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Week 2

N.Y Giants -2 (-110)
Washington -4.5 (-110)
Atlanta +5.5 (-110)
Cleavland +5 (-110)
New England -3 (-120)
Buffalo -1.5 (-110)
*** Carolina -1.5 (-110)
Tennessee -3 (-120)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

*** St. Louis +4 (-110)
Kansas City +13 (-110)
Houston -3 (-110)
Seattle -5 (-110)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

San Francisco -7 (+104)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Indianapolis -3 (-105)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Week 3

Atlanta -7 (+100)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Detroit -1 (-110)
Tennessee +6 (-110)
St. Louis +2 (-110)
New England -14 (-105)
Houston +1 (-105)
San Diego +2.5 (-105)
Jacksonville +5.5 (-110)
Minnesota +9.5 (-110)
Cleavland +1.5 (-110)
Arizona +3 (-120)
Miami - 6 (-105)
Denver +4 (-110)
*** Pittsburgh +3 (+107)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

*** New York -1.5 (-110)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Week 4

*** New York + (+105)

[nikossf]

Still riding the Jets huh, man... I dont know.. Im staying away..
Chicago should be big this weekend.. or even Philly.. Why Jets???

[ItsMeMrMattE]

overall: 46-45
*** plays: 12-4
amount wagered: 997.30
amount won: -30.70

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Buffalo +2.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh -7 (-117)
NY Jets -2 (-110)
Indianapolis -7 (-112)
Carolina +3 (-115)
Chicago +1 (+105)
Oakland +4 (-110)
San Diego -12.5 (-110)
Minnesota +5 (-105)
Philadelphia +4 (-106)
Dallas +3 (-117)

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Week 5

Minnesota +9 (-105)

[nikossf]

Week 5

Minnesota +9 (-105)

Was this posted before, MattE??? Never saw this..

[ItsMeMrMattE]

no im not posting them before game. less free time recently. you know the concept of the thread so its easy to figure out which ones will be eventually posted. just tracking it to see where it ends out at. so far it looks like its telling that same story vegas always tells. you will hit around 50% but the vig will eat you up. keep an eye on the *** plays. those are still hitting good for now.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Atlanta +4 (-105)
Indianapolis -2.5 (-115)
Dallas -4.5 (-110)
Philadelphia -3.5 (-115)
Tampa Bay +11 (-115)
Detroit -4.5 (-110)
Carolina -1.5 (-110)
Jacksonville +6 (-115)
Denver -8 (-113)
San Diego -7 (+100)
New England +2.5 (-105)