NFL SBR Consensus

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  • ItsMeMrMattE
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 08-30-10
    • 5294

    #36
    @KVB you are definitely right about it being the information age. i think we will live to see interesting time for money making activities like this. i wrote a post on here a while back stating that i think its possible at some point, with the way computing power and data analysis is constantly improving, we reach a height in technology where the computing power needed to make extremely accurate predictions in events like sports matches will be easily available to both bettors and bookmakers. at this point the only thing that will keep the bookmakers in business is the inability to predict human intent. this could lead to athletes throwing games on a regular basis along with other scenarios but most would be detrimental to the integrity of sports. I didn't expect it to do this good in preseason and i know it wont run like this for the whole season. Im using this season to help me find things that will be beneficial in making picks at a later time and to become more in tune with the nfl marketplace.
    Thats a good point about not only just going with the gut, but trying to figure out why i feel that way, and then write down what i came up with at the time. Im gonna work on that.
    Comment
    • jjgold
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 07-20-05
      • 388179

      #37
      whatever you do over time w-l will be around 50%-52%

      Its just stats 101

      Matty I am betting against you here but maybe your system will prove me wrong
      Comment
      • ItsMeMrMattE
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-30-10
        • 5294

        #38
        time will tell JJ. whether in the end it ends up producing profits or not, i have no idea. im interested to find out tho. if i had to guess hit % rate at this point, i would say a safe guess is somewhere between 50%-60%
        Comment
        • jjgold
          SBR Aristocracy
          • 07-20-05
          • 388179

          #39
          Matty we will follow this closely and I hope y'all win a lot
          Comment
          • ItsMeMrMattE
            SBR Hall of Famer
            • 08-30-10
            • 5294

            #40
            ***
            Ticket#:2582427
            Aug 18 08:00 PM
            Aug 18 07:54 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
            [431] CLEVELAND +2-110
            11.00 / 10.00
            Comment
            • 2daBank
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 01-26-09
              • 88966

              #41
              i glanced at it a minute ago and it looked like the money was super close..like the over myself, gl
              Comment
              • ItsMeMrMattE
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 08-30-10
                • 5294

                #42
                ya it looks like a lot of big bets came in late for CLE according to the consensus.
                Comment
                • ItsMeMrMattE
                  SBR Hall of Famer
                  • 08-30-10
                  • 5294

                  #43
                  that was a good ending.

                  overall: 12-3
                  *** plays: 3-0
                  amount wagered: 162.50
                  amount won: 88.00
                  Comment
                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 08-30-10
                    • 5294

                    #44
                    good call on the over 2dabank.
                    Comment
                    • 2daBank
                      SBR Aristocracy
                      • 01-26-09
                      • 88966

                      #45
                      Originally posted by ItsMeMrMattE
                      good call on the over 2dabank.
                      lucky as hell for both of us but who cares ill take it..
                      Comment
                      • KVB
                        SBR Aristocracy
                        • 05-29-14
                        • 74817

                        #46
                        Originally posted by 2daBank
                        lucky as hell for both of us but who cares ill take it..
                        I think you'll find that the harder you work on your plays, the luckier you'll get.
                        Comment
                        • 2daBank
                          SBR Aristocracy
                          • 01-26-09
                          • 88966

                          #47
                          Originally posted by KVB
                          I think you'll find that the harder you work on your plays, the luckier you'll get.
                          i dunno, been at this a long time, work pretty hard and ive found that if you make enough plays you gonna see your share of great luck and horrible beats alike, just the name of the game..
                          Comment
                          • KVB
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 05-29-14
                            • 74817

                            #48
                            Originally posted by 2daBank
                            i dunno, been at this a long time, work pretty hard and ive found that if you make enough plays you gonna see your share of great luck and horrible beats alike, just the name of the game..
                            I see what you're saying. I feel patience a discipline will trump the ups and downs of lady luck. But boy I too have seen my share of great luck and horrible beats alike.

                            I was making a bit of a joke but referring to the fact that winning isn't easy and correctly putting in extra time should give you more winners (or less losers) than the more casual, lazy bettor.
                            Comment
                            • 2daBank
                              SBR Aristocracy
                              • 01-26-09
                              • 88966

                              #49
                              Originally posted by KVB
                              I see what you're saying. I feel patience a discipline will trump the ups and downs of lady luck. But boy I too have seen my share of great luck and horrible beats alike.

                              I was making a bit of a joke but referring to the fact that winning isn't easy and correctly putting in extra time should give you more winners (or less losers) than the more casual, lazy bettor.
                              for sure,, i certainly put the work in (pretty much skipped majority of the baseball season simply cause didnt have the time this year for the several hours a day i need to have any success with bases), unfortunately patients is not a virtue that i was blessed with a whole lot of and while i take great pride in being disciplined when it comes to many things in my life when it comes to gambling it a ongoing internal struggle
                              Comment
                              • nikossf
                                SBR MVP
                                • 03-02-10
                                • 2217

                                #50
                                MattE!!... Any thoughts on tonights game?
                                Comment
                                • ItsMeMrMattE
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 08-30-10
                                  • 5294

                                  #51
                                  this would have been a no play or if i really had to PHI -3.5 game for me. consensus says...

                                  Ticket#:2584553
                                  Aug 21 07:30 PM
                                  Aug 21 07:20 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                  [251] PITTSBURGH +4-110
                                  11.00 / 10.00
                                  Comment
                                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 08-30-10
                                    • 5294

                                    #52
                                    overall: 12-4
                                    *** plays: 3-0
                                    amount wagered: 173.50
                                    amount won: 77.00
                                    Comment
                                    • ItsMeMrMattE
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 08-30-10
                                      • 5294

                                      #53
                                      Ticket#:2585442
                                      Aug 22 07:30 PM
                                      Aug 22 07:21 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                      [254] DETROIT -3-125
                                      12.50 / 10.00
                                      Ticket#:2585443
                                      Aug 22 07:30 PM
                                      Aug 22 07:21 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                      [255] CAROLINA +6-110
                                      11.00 / 10.00
                                      Ticket#:2585444
                                      Aug 22 07:30 PM
                                      Aug 22 07:21 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                      [258] N.Y. JETS -3EV
                                      10.00 / 10.00
                                      Comment
                                      • pavyracer
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 04-12-07
                                        • 82840

                                        #54
                                        SBR consensus is like polling 100 escorts asking who has STD's. The poll is going to be inaccurate because most of them will lie.
                                        Comment
                                        • ItsMeMrMattE
                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                          • 08-30-10
                                          • 5294

                                          #55
                                          lol. i can work with that analogy. don't rely just on what it says. wrap it up and know what your getting into. so far its sucked my dick pretty good tho.
                                          Comment
                                          • ItsMeMrMattE
                                            SBR Hall of Famer
                                            • 08-30-10
                                            • 5294

                                            #56
                                            Oakland +6.5 (-110)
                                            Comment
                                            • ItsMeMrMattE
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 08-30-10
                                              • 5294

                                              #57
                                              Ticket#:2585545
                                              Aug 22 10:00 PM
                                              Aug 22 09:43 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                              [262] SEATTLE -7-105
                                              10.50 / 10.00
                                              Comment
                                              • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 08-30-10
                                                • 5294

                                                #58
                                                Ticket#:2586302
                                                Aug 23 04:30 PM
                                                Aug 23 04:17 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                [263] TAMPA BAY +3-115
                                                11.50 / 10.00
                                                Comment
                                                • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                  • 08-30-10
                                                  • 5294

                                                  #59
                                                  Ticket#:2586469
                                                  Aug 23 07:00 PM
                                                  Aug 23 06:47 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                  [265] DALLAS +5-110
                                                  11.00 / 10.00
                                                  Ticket#:2586470
                                                  Aug 23 07:00 PM
                                                  Aug 23 06:47 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                  [268] ATLANTA -4½-110
                                                  11.00 / 10.00
                                                  Comment
                                                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                    • 08-30-10
                                                    • 5294

                                                    #60
                                                    Ticket#:2586526
                                                    Aug 23 07:30 PM
                                                    Aug 23 07:21 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                    [270] BALTIMORE -2½-115
                                                    11.50 / 10.00
                                                    Comment
                                                    • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 08-30-10
                                                      • 5294

                                                      #61
                                                      Ticket#:2586560
                                                      Aug 23 08:00 PM
                                                      Aug 23 07:50 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                      [272] INDIANAPOLIS PK-110
                                                      11.00 / 10.00
                                                      Ticket#:2586561
                                                      Aug 23 08:00 PM
                                                      Aug 23 07:50 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                      [273] MINNESOTA +2-110
                                                      11.00 / 10.00
                                                      Ticket#:2586562
                                                      Aug 23 08:00 PM
                                                      Aug 23 07:50 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                      [275] ST. LOUIS +3-110
                                                      11.00 / 10.00
                                                      Comment
                                                      • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-30-10
                                                        • 5294

                                                        #62
                                                        Ticket#:2586619
                                                        Aug 23 09:00 PM
                                                        Aug 23 08:49 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                        [278] DENVER -7-115
                                                        11.50 / 10.00
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                          SBR Hall of Famer
                                                          • 08-30-10
                                                          • 5294

                                                          #63
                                                          Ticket#:2587339
                                                          Aug 24 04:00 PM
                                                          Aug 24 03:31 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                          [279] SAN DIEGO +5½-110
                                                          11.00 / 10.00
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Bluehorseshoe
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 07-13-06
                                                            • 15006

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by nikossf
                                                            Love the concept.. Vegas is in business for a reason!!! will be watching...
                                                            Because they charge vig.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • chilidog
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 04-05-09
                                                              • 10305

                                                              #65
                                                              Originally posted by Bluehorseshoe
                                                              Because they charge vig.
                                                              They always take a position. It's quite rare to get 50/50 on each side.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                • 08-30-10
                                                                • 5294

                                                                #66
                                                                Ticket#:2587538
                                                                Aug 24 08:00 PM
                                                                Aug 24 07:48 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                [281] CINCINNATI +2½-105
                                                                10.50 / 10.00
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                  • 08-30-10
                                                                  • 5294

                                                                  #67
                                                                  overall: 18-12
                                                                  *** plays: 3-0
                                                                  amount wagered: 328.50
                                                                  amount won: 48.00

                                                                  in extra 5 units for the nfl season for minimal work, not to bad.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                    • 08-30-10
                                                                    • 5294

                                                                    #68
                                                                    ***
                                                                    Ticket#:2590654
                                                                    Aug 28 06:00 PM
                                                                    Aug 28 05:50 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                    [101] ATLANTA +4½-110
                                                                    11.00 / 10.00
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 08-30-10
                                                                      • 5294

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Ticket#:2590732
                                                                      Aug 28 07:00 PM
                                                                      Aug 28 06:53 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [104] BUFFALO -3-130
                                                                      13.00 / 10.00
                                                                      Ticket#:2590733
                                                                      Aug 28 07:00 PM
                                                                      Aug 28 06:53 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [106] CINCINNATI -2½-110
                                                                      11.00 / 10.00
                                                                      Ticket#:2590734
                                                                      Aug 28 07:00 PM
                                                                      Aug 28 06:53 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [108] MIAMI -3EV
                                                                      10.00 / 10.00
                                                                      Ticket#:2590735
                                                                      Aug 28 07:00 PM
                                                                      Aug 28 06:53 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [109] N.Y. JETS +3-105
                                                                      10.50 / 10.00
                                                                      Ticket#:2590736
                                                                      Aug 28 07:00 PM
                                                                      Aug 28 06:53 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                      [111] KANSAS CITY +4-105
                                                                      10.50 / 10.00
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • ItsMeMrMattE
                                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                        • 08-30-10
                                                                        • 5294

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Ticket#:2590782
                                                                        Aug 28 07:30 PM
                                                                        Aug 28 07:23 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                        [114] N.Y. GIANTS -3EV
                                                                        10.00 / 10.00
                                                                        Ticket#:2590784
                                                                        Aug 28 07:30 PM
                                                                        Aug 28 07:23 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                        [118] PITTSBURGH -4-105
                                                                        10.50 / 10.00
                                                                        ***
                                                                        Ticket#:2590783
                                                                        Aug 28 07:30 PM
                                                                        Aug 28 07:23 PM NFL STRAIGHT BET
                                                                        [116] TAMPA BAY -3EV
                                                                        10.00 / 10.00
                                                                        Comment
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