NFL SBR Consensus

[ItsMeMrMattE]

I've always been curious to see how helpful the consensus thing could be. going to try and track it all season. so far all i have decided to do is just pick a side based on which ever team has the least amount wagered on them. if you have ideas on other ways to track it let me know. if there is a *** by the pick. it was the lowest amount wagered but highest average bet size.

***

Ticket#:2579652 Aug 15 07:30 PM

Aug 15 07:22 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [404] NEW ENGLAND -2-110

11.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2579672 Aug 15 08:00 PM

Aug 15 07:44 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [406] NEW ORLEANS -3EV

10.00 / 10.00

[chilidog]

I'm not gonna give it away, but I will say that there is definitely at least one very profitable pattern from the NFL consensus data. And that pattern does come into play tonight...

[ItsMeMrMattE]

PM me chilidog. i can keep a secret.

[WWWBUKTN]

I've been doing this forever. It works best on national television games as those are bet way harder than the average game. You get a good look at what the public likes and you fade it. It won the last six sides going in during the playoffs last year including the Super Bowl. I hate O/U's usually but when I see something that's 25% and under I roll with it blindly.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2579783 Aug 15 10:00 PM	Aug 15 09:50 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [407] DETROIT +3-115	11.50 / 10.00
Ticket#:2579784 Aug 15 10:00 PM	Aug 15 09:50 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [410] SEATTLE -6-110	11.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

good start.

overall: 4-0
*** plays: 1-0
amount wagered: 43.50
amount won: 40.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

didn't get home in time for the first game. play would have been..

Green Bay +2.5 (-105)

[yankees10]

Not sure I understand the consensus I saw looks like it was on Seattle how was they a play ?

[jjgold]

Consensus is all random it's a bad betting strategy

Just look for the best number

[nikossf]

With this theory would you be playing Pittsburgh and Indy in the afternoon games?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@yankees10 according to consensus SD had $49,358 SEA had $42,720. playing side with least amount wagered.

@jjgold why is consensus all random?

@nikossf yes.

[yankees10]

I see I think I'm looking at the wrong thing can you tell me how to get to what you are seeing because what I'm looking at don't have the amount of money being wagered just the percentages ? Thx

[ItsMeMrMattE]

go to nfl odds page. on the upper right, next to the date, you will see Consensus click that.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2580791 Aug 16 07:00 PM	Aug 16 06:38 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [414] INDIANAPOLIS PK-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2580792 Aug 16 07:00 PM	Aug 16 06:38 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [415] BALTIMORE -2½-110	11.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2580828 Aug 16 07:00 PM

Aug 16 06:52 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [417] N.Y. JETS +3-105

10.50 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2580852 Aug 16 07:30 PM	Aug 16 06:59 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [420] PITTSBURGH PK-110	11.00 / 10.00
Ticket#:2580853 Aug 16 07:30 PM	Aug 16 06:59 PM	NFL	STRAIGHT BET [421] MIAMI +3-115	11.50 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2580904 Aug 16 08:00 PM

Aug 16 07:27 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [423] ATLANTA +3+110

10.00 / 11.00

[BigdaddyQH]

If you have to depend on gimiks to win, you will NEVER win, like the vast majority of the players in here, no matter what they tell you.

[nikossf]

Hey MattE... Looking good so far with the 1st qtr to an end.. Like the idea here...

[chilidog]

If you have to depend on gimiks to win, you will NEVER win, like the vast majority of the players in here, no matter what they tell you.

The Wise One has graced us with his almighty presence. Tell us again how awesome you are, how much we suck, and how you could easily kick all of our butts with just your left pinky toe.

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2580947 Aug 16 08:30 PM

Aug 16 08:21 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [425] ARIZONA +5-110

11.00 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@bigdaddyQH i don't really know what makes this qualify as a gimik. its a pretty straight forward and simple concept. if the consensus numbers do come from a book, which im trying to figure out by doing this. then by backing every single game on the lower amount wagered side your basically betting that the book makes money this season. granted line movement and actual amount wagered does come into play, but im trying to keep it as simple as possible. i by no means recommend anyone make their bets based solely on this. just trying to see how sharp this tool actually is. i will not be making any normal unit bets on the nfl this season because im not ready for it. i still have a lot to learn when it comes to football betting. $10 bets on every game, or every game i can get in, already missed one, will be all im betting. and $10 at a time through out the whole season will not make or break my BR, but will keep me interested enough to try and improve.

[nikossf]

@bigdaddyQH i don't really know what makes this qualify as a gimik. its a pretty straight forward and simple concept. if the consensus numbers do come from a book, which im trying to figure out by doing this. then by backing every single game on the lower amount wagered side your basically betting that the book makes money this season. granted line movement and actual amount wagered does come into play, but im trying to keep it as simple as possible. i by no means recommend anyone make their bets based solely on this. just trying to see how sharp this tool actually is. i will not be making any normal unit bets on the nfl this season because im not ready for it. i still have a lot to learn when it comes to football betting. $10 bets on every game, or every game i can get in, already missed one, will be all im betting. and $10 at a time through out the whole season will not make or break my BR, but will keep me interested enough to try and improve.

Love the concept.. Vegas is in business for a reason!!! will be watching...

[ItsMeMrMattE]

overall: 10-2
*** plays: 1-0
amount wagered: 130.00
amount won: 79.00

[nikossf]

MattE... whats on Tap for today??

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@nikosssf Denver and most likely KC

[ItsMeMrMattE]

***

Ticket#:2581656 Aug 17 04:00 PM

Aug 17 03:52 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [427] DENVER +3+105

10.00 / 10.50

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@nikosssf if you played Denver i would just hold on to profits, unless there is something that you already really like in the KC/Car game. amount wagered will have me on KC +3 but i dont think its gonna hit.

[yankees10]

Why do you think that ?

[ItsMeMrMattE]

@yankees10 i dont know enough about either team or football betting for that matter to be able to really give you a solid answer to that. mainly just from the way things have been moving ML and spread wise. also the gut is saying it wont. was intended for anyone that hit DEN in the early game. it just seems wise to me here to keep the profits from that game and move on to tomorrow.

[yankees10]

I see well I have kc so I know they ain't gonna cover lol

[ItsMeMrMattE]

Ticket#:2581847 Aug 17 08:00 PM

Aug 17 07:53 PM

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [429] KANSAS CITY +3-115

11.50 / 10.00

[ItsMeMrMattE]

overall: 11-3
*** plays: 2-0
amount wagered: 151.50
amount won: 78.00

[KVB]

This is the information age and the information you have and how you use it will make all the difference in the world to your bottom line. The concept of following the money can be a dangerous weapon in a bettor’s arsenal. I believe that for this thread, eventually, you’ll find that a more sophisticated marketplace will catch up to such an easily available piece of information. Keep tracking, should be interesting.

It’s a lot like season average statistics and typical box score information. If you are winning early with these, eventually the lines and marketplace will adjust and edges will disappear. Good bets disappear and worse, become losers. Turning to less popular, more predictive stats, will help sharpen that edge.

It’s the same with the flow of money. If you can discover less popular, more predictive ways to watch the money flow, you will have an edge on information and a very dangerous edge on the marketplace. This is where the ‘how you use your information’ really comes into play. This takes a lot of experience but should get everyone thinking.

Don’t try to outsmart the odds makers, or even the bookmakers for that matter. You can’t outsmart the experts for any length of time. You don’t need to; you only need to outsmart the average opinion that makes up the bettor’s in the marketplace.

Looking good MattE...keep thinking out of the box and don't be afraid to ask that gut of yours for some details about what it's thinking, then make some notes and keep track...you might be surprised.