This is going to sound crazy, but...

**Slanina** · 01-06-15, 10:30 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

wow, we are all hoping for the push now.

4 goals now. Empty netter coming in 2 minutes for the loss.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-06-15, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

4 goals now. Empty netter coming in 2 minutes for the loss.

Funnily enough, Dallas probably won't cover the over.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-06-15, 10:42 PM

I've got Min. Is it wrong to feel defeated on a bet before it actually plays out? Been getting burned so frequently, I can't help but think it is a natural reaction.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-06-15, 10:50 PM

Min did me in guys. I think I'm done. 3-17 in shootouts, a loss last night with 2.5 secs, a two goal come back and then losing in OT. Is this a normal trend in sports betting. I'm relatively new to this hobby, but this is this bad luck the norm?

**Slanina** · 01-06-15, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

Min did me in guys. I think I'm done. 3-17 in shootouts, a loss last night with 2.5 secs, a two goal come back and then losing in OT. Is this a normal trend in sports betting. I'm relatively new to this hobby, but this is this bad luck the norm?

This is incredibly bad luck. Bad luck runs happen but this is way beyond that. I have no expectations of winning going into a day now. Winning only 15% of Shootout games over 20 games isn't normal in any language. Sometimes you just have to fight through weeks like these as it will turn around. The only issue is how buried we get before it does turn.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-06-15, 11:14 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

This is incredibly bad luck. Bad luck runs happen but this is way beyond that. I have no expectations of winning going into a day now. Winning only 15% of Shootout games over 20 games isn't normal in any language. Sometimes you just have to fight through weeks like these as it will turn around. The only issue is how buried we get before it does turn.

Well put Slanina. I suppose the question becomes, how long should I (or anyone for that matter) "stick with it". I gamble for fun. My life does not depend on it. However, it is still nice to have some fun, follow some games and win and few bucks.

**Slanina** · 01-07-15, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

Well put Slanina. I suppose the question becomes, how long should I (or anyone for that matter) "stick with it". I gamble for fun. My life does not depend on it. However, it is still nice to have some fun, follow some games and win and few bucks.

If it makes you feel any better I'm starting my system tomorrow. It hasn't been fully tested so I'm going small for now. You can watch me get murdered as I'm going in blind.

**a4u2fear** · 01-07-15, 05:06 PM

You should probably fade these picks, as the team picks are in a fantastic slump
TOR +115
NYR +103

**Jayvegas420** · 01-07-15, 05:53 PM

I will fade on Toronto pick

Thank you.

**Slanina** · 01-07-15, 06:07 PM

I'm not fading anything. I will go down with the ship. I'm keeping faith.

**blackHIPPY** · 01-07-15, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

I'm not fading anything. I will go down with the ship. I'm keeping faith.

Me too

**ToyotaLC** · 01-07-15, 08:14 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

I'm not fading anything. I will go down with the ship. I'm keeping faith.

Awesome! I did a number of NBA picks tonight, and I'll jump back on board tomorrow. I'm still new so I'll have to investigate what fading means. Are you finishing up your system this weekend? I know this is a4's thread, but I'd be interested to see if we couldn't get a few consensus picks each night. I'm sure someone will chime in that that isn't possible.

**Slanina** · 01-07-15, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

Awesome! I did a number of NBA picks tonight, and I'll jump back on board tomorrow. I'm still new so I'll have to investigate what fading means. Are you finishing up your system this weekend? I know this is a4's thread, but I'd be interested to see if we couldn't get a few consensus picks each night. I'm sure someone will chime in that that isn't possible.

My system has Pittsburgh tonight. But it's kinda messed up for now. Have to sort it out. I bet on it though. For NBA capping, search filmoz. He's a solid capper. Fading = doing opposite. So instead of betting Toronto, you'd bet Washington.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-07-15, 08:50 PM

Originally posted by Slanina

My system has Pittsburgh tonight. But it's kinda messed up for now. Have to sort it out. I bet on it though. For NBA capping, search filmoz. He's a solid capper. Fading = doing opposite. So instead of betting Toronto, you'd bet Washington.

Thanks. Looks at though that might have been the play. They are in tough with Wash.

**a4u2fear** · 01-08-15, 04:54 PM

Ok, so teams still in dog house, but totals are still going well, our worst day lately was 1-1-2

DAL +140
STL -170
WPG -105
NYR +143

CAR u5 -115
MIN o5.5 +115
LA o5 -122

**oldscho0led** · 01-08-15, 06:36 PM

a4u, the team record is sucking because of the SO right? What would be the record if we are just betting them 1st period?

**Slanina** · 01-08-15, 07:31 PM

Today is the day the sun shines!

**a4u2fear** · 01-08-15, 07:35 PM

Originally posted by oldscho0led

a4u, the team record is sucking because of the SO right? What would be the record if we are just betting them 1st period?

Yes, SOs are likely the reason we are 8-10 units off, and that's with 50/50 outcome.

I can check 1P but not soon

**ToyotaLC** · 01-08-15, 10:48 PM

Another loss in OT. At least it wasn't a shootout. Double stinger with the end also not hitting.

**Slanina** · 01-09-15, 12:14 AM

I'm wondering how the Rangers will lose this one.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-09-15, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

I'm wondering how the Rangers will lose this one.

They came close. Was waiting for it to get tied up and go to a shootout. Ugh,

**Slanina** · 01-09-15, 01:42 AM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

They came close. Was waiting for it to get tied up and go to a shootout. Ugh,

Me too. Was looking at a bad night when it was 2-0 Kings. Nice turn around for +1.42 units. Well 1.42 for me on the day.

**a4u2fear** · 01-09-15, 08:01 AM

Totals still our cash cow. Will update records this weekend, want the teams to win some first! ha

TOR o6 +100

TOR -130
CHI -210

**oldscho0led** · 01-09-15, 09:05 AM

That is why I'm just betting the Totals w/ +money only. So far, so good. I just started tailing you last week.

**bihon** · 01-09-15, 09:41 AM

Originally posted by a4u2fear

Yes, SOs are likely the reason we are 8-10 units off, and that's with 50/50 outcome.

I can check 1P but not soon

Checking any other play on those games couldn't provide better results UNLESS you can find some common denominator e.g. is there any correlation among all those games ending in SO. Otherwise you can't pinpoint the SO games in advance. If you could, then RT draw would be the best bet.

I would be also interested in your results for ALL the games played, as your original system was devised in that way, right?

**Slanina** · 01-09-15, 08:10 PM

I don't think anything needs filtered. The backtesting showed amazing success. It's just in a big rut. It was even up almost +13 units before it started going South. I'm sure there were some ugly month long runs in prior years.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-09-15, 08:19 PM

Maybe this evening is our turning point. 5 goals in the first!

**ToyotaLC** · 01-09-15, 08:23 PM

I think we had this last time an O/U was posted at 6. Maybe TO v Phil? Can't remember. Is it sound logic to bet over whenever they O/U is 6? Looks like this one will also hit.

**Slanina** · 01-09-15, 08:23 PM

Hello, Toronto! Can't ask for a better 1st period then that.

**Slanina** · 01-09-15, 08:25 PM

Originally posted by ToyotaLC

I think we had this last time an O/U was posted at 6. Maybe TO v Phil? Can't remember. Is it sound logic to bet over whenever they O/U is 6? Looks like this one will also hit.

I gotta think long term it will even out. 7 goals is hard to do even with great offenses and bad goalies.

**ToyotaLC** · 01-09-15, 08:54 PM

I agree. Just very rare to see an O/U set at 6. Maybe it is pops up again under is the play considering the last few outcomes.

**a4u2fear** · 01-09-15, 09:02 PM

Please no tie on total, would be depressing

**a4u2fear** · 01-09-15, 09:02 PM

Guys, there are plenty of totals at 6, more than you would think, I have prior data

**ToyotaLC** · 01-09-15, 09:09 PM

Really a4, lots of O/U 6? Man, since I started trailing about month and a half ago, we've only had 2 (both involving the Leafs). I suppose I was wondering aloud if someone should always be inclined to take the over in such circumstances

**a4u2fear** · 01-09-15, 09:28 PM

Guess I meant more than you would think.