A sure way to make $$$$ gambling over a lifetime........

Matt Rain · 03-11-09, 08:21 PM

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MonkeyF0cker · 03-11-09, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by tullamore

Nicky if it is this easy, why let the secret out? Won't people looking for these situations make this types of lines less available.

It's no secret, tullamore. As I said earlier, it is a widely known concept. Pinny has the highest volume of wagers in the world. Thus, their market is deemed closest to efficiency and the results validate that theory.

Nicky Santoro · 03-11-09, 08:22 PM

Originally posted by tullamore

So the biggest reasons for success would be discipline and money management, and if you dont have both you are going to lose, no matter what lines you are betting into.

people will not stick to this.. it`s tough. some will start to bet late tv games when they are 4-11 on the night and will fukk up the system. they will chase too.. very hard to stick to this religiously.. if they do, they win..

MonkeyF0cker · 03-11-09, 08:27 PM

Originally posted by fiveteamer

I don't understand why it is only unders.

Because historically, it would only take 5 cents to overcome the juice on unders. It would, again historically, take more than that to beat the juice on overs. This is not to say that there is not some random walk in those results. There, in fact, could be and the results may deviate back toward 50% in the future. But Nicky would not understand that...

Nicky Santoro · 03-11-09, 08:31 PM

monkey, if you think that 5 cents will beat the vig, then i will make you a deal, I will give you 5 cents better on every closing line at pinny and you play me every over for 1k a game..

fair enough..

we`ll post up with sbr john.

Matt Rain · 03-11-09, 08:31 PM

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MonkeyF0cker · 03-11-09, 08:45 PM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

monkey, if you think that 5 cents will beat the vig, then i will make you a deal, I will give you 5 cents better on every closing line at pinny and you play me every over for 1k a game..

fair enough..

we`ll post up with sbr john.

Read my post again, genius. I said historically it would take MORE than 5 cents on overs. You don't account for the phenomena of random walk AT ALL. So it may indeed take more than 5 cents on unders in the future. Am I willing to bet on either case (beating Pinny totals one way or the other by only 5 cents)? No. I'm not. I'd want at least 10.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-11-09, 09:38 PM

And assuming that you have the results at your disposal, there is a way to calculate the validity of such data. The following webpage provides insight into those calculations:

Answers - The Most Trusted Place for Answering Life's Questions

http://www.answers.com/topic/checking-if-a-coin-is-fair

Answers is the place to go to get the answers you need and to ask the questions you want

donjuan · 03-11-09, 09:51 PM

Monkey owns Nicky again. Yawn.

Nicky Santoro · 03-11-09, 09:54 PM

donny, took you long enough.. too predictable how you always come in my threads..donny, you and monkey would never be able to figure out something like this, so you always bash me.. donny, i will make you the same deal.. 1k a game across the board, i give you 5 cents off every total and you bet every over.. fair enough

if i am wrong about all this, then you will take offer. if you dont take offer, then shut the fukk up and get out of my thread, and i will say it now, shut the fukk up and get out my thread cause i know you wont do it, so stop talking a big game..

if i am clueless, then you will take my offer.. but you wont... so get lost..

MonkeyF0cker · 03-11-09, 10:05 PM

Yeah, beating Pinny closers is NEVER discussed in the Think Tank or anywhere else. You are the first, Nicky. I hope you can sense the sarcasm.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-11-09, 10:07 PM

And you still have yet to comprehend my statements on the overs after how many posts?

donjuan · 03-11-09, 10:20 PM

donny, took you long enough.. too predictable how you always come in my threads..donny, you and monkey would never be able to figure out something like this, so you always bash me.. donny, i will make you the same deal.. 1k a game across the board, i give you 5 cents off every total and you bet every over.. fair enough

if i am wrong about all this, then you will take offer. if you dont take offer, then shut the fukk up and get out of my thread, and i will say it now, shut the fukk up and get out my thread cause i know you wont do it, so stop talking a big game..

if i am clueless, then you will take my offer.. but you wont... so get lost..

You fail at reading comprehension, yet again.

shantystar · 03-12-09, 02:56 AM

Originally posted by Nicky Santoro

Boys, i gave you guys that great tip on how to be thin because im a nice guy cause you all know when you think of nice guys, the 1st name that comes to your mind is nicky santoro.... you`re welcome....

so since i am a good guy, here is the secret formula to make money over a lifetime.. Its full proof.

Since gambling has started, there have been way more unders than overs.. but if you bet every under in sports, you will go broke because of the vig. The vig will just eat you up at the end. So this is what you do to avoid it...

When pinny has an NFL game total at 36.5 ov -105-- 36.5 un -105, all you have to do is get a 36.5 un even somewhere and you have a + even bet going for you here.

if pinny has a hockey total 5.5 ov -110---5.5 un even, all you have to find is a un 5.5 +105 or better and you will take the money over the long haul.

if pinny has a mlb total of 8.5 ov -115--8.5 un +105, just find a un 8.5 +110 and you are good to go.

Just beat pinnys closing line by 5 cents or more is all you need and play every under in every sport, BUT it must be 5 cents better or you DO NOT play it. IF not 5 cents better, you LAY OFF IT..

i promise you will win at the end. in the 15 or so yrs of research i have put into this, there have been much more unders than overs and this is a large enough sample size.

You`re welcome..

oh yeahhh!

reno cool · 03-12-09, 03:05 AM

It seems that overs have been historically overpriced. Sure the linemakers can make that adjustment starting today. But they wont because they know people like betting overs. So Nicky's advice is valid as long as not too many actually adapt it.

MonkeyF0cker · 03-12-09, 03:23 AM

Yeah, reno, to some extent. But we were discussing Pinny closers so it's more of a market determination. Is it really overvaluation or simple variance and random walk? You CAN find out by calculating the posterior probability density function. However, you CAN'T simply assume like Nicky has. That could lead to some catastrophic results...

Casi · 03-12-09, 03:25 AM

Pinny doesn´t always have a sharp line, they do not have an opinion on all games...
If they get 1 sided action on such a game they simply try to even it out, and -115 +105 does NOT mean that getting it for -110 at another book is a sharp play.

The only way to always win in the long run (besides the obvious like arbing or bonus whoring) is catching big moves.
And this is work, you sit before a line screen.