Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[dlunc3]

in regards to high pressure situations

[stevenash]

Hey Nash what do you think of the marlins and Fernandez tonight really like his numbers against the phillies they have a really hard time hitting him and he's on an extra day of rest. Burnett is pitching for the phillies he's struggled a lot against the cubs his last time out and I think he chokes under pressure. I believe it's a pressure situation here for the phillies they are 0-3 to start at home and to lose this game to the marlins and start 0-4 I think would come down heavy on them. Would love to hear your insight on this game.

Also I like the orioles I know the juice is like -150 but Tillman has been pitching great and I really like how the orioles bats came a live against the Yankees last series I think blue jays will struggle in this situation and also think McGowan is horrible for the blue jays and the orioles will pound him....would appreciate your knowledge on these two games.

Sounds like you already know what you like.

Words of advice: follow your heart, you like Fernandez? bet the kid.

Another option in the Oriole game is the FF, avoid the bullpen.

[derekjeter8]

Sounds like you already know what you like.

Words of advice: follow your heart, you like Fernandez? bet the kid.

Another option in the Oriole game is the FF, avoid the bullpen.

Thanks Nash love what you are doing here thanks for the hard work you put in

[stevenash]

Red Sox -117 (Lester) over Yankess (Sabathia)

Hit yesterday's play with Brewers for 2* at +109

YTD 9-2
+ 16.32 *

I just wrote up a 30 minute piece here, and the web site locks up.
OK I gotta do a few things, no time for rewrite, but in a nut shell,

Like tough as nails lefty Jon Lester (and I am a Yankee fan) to silence Yankees bats.
Good spot for Lester here, Sox sport a little better lineup tonight and a better starter entering the game.

Sox -117 2*

Ask yourself this?
Why are the Red Sox favorites on the road in hostile territory?
Hmmmm

Sox

[Madison]

Hit yesterday's play with Brewers for 2* at +109

YTD 9-2
+ 16.32 *

I just wrote up a 30 minute piece here, and the web site locks up.
OK I gotta do a few things, no time for rewrite, but in a nut shell,

Like tough as nails lefty Jon Lester (and I am a Yankee fan) to silence Yankees bats.
Good spot for Lester here, Sox sport a little better lineup tonight and a better starter entering the game.

Sox -117 2*

Ask yourself this?
Why are the Red Sox favorites on the road in hostile territory?
Hmmmm

Sox

Other than papi's homer their O is O ffensive. Like the play just not the way the sox are hitting. Hate to think they might wake CC.

I'm 0-0 with your picks, but GREATLY appreciate your input. THX! Nasher!

[Jayvegas420]

What do you like at 10:30 Nashy, for when we're completely wasted.

[stevenash]

If bet: SD goes later if Boston wins early

If Boston wins at 7:00, SD goes for 2*, if Boston loses, this is a no play.

What do you like at 10:30 Nashy, for when we're completely wasted.

Try Cashner over Porcello.

You can get a tough, under the radar, stud (Cashner) at home, versus a Tiger team that ain't really hitting the way Detroit should, minus the DH in the NL park, in a park that is pitcher friendly.

SD thinks it can hang with LA and is actually a pretty good team.

SD at home pick 'em

[blackeyeshamus]

Red Sox n Spanks in notoriously long games. Very surprised if it's over by ten. Thanks for the heads up plays, mr. Nash.

[stevenash]

Red Sox n Spanks in notoriously long games. Very surprised if it's over by ten. Thanks for the heads up plays, mr. Nash.

If specified, if plays only go if the first bet wins, Sox game can go to 2am, SD game kicks in only if Boston wins.

I don't want to play 2 games in one day unless I am really, really strong on both this early in the season, thus, the if bet.

[blackeyeshamus]

My apologies. Thanks, again.

[lovetobet]

He's heating up; He's on Fire!!!

[ipaulster]

11-2!!! Congrats and thank you

[No coincidences]

Incredible start, Nasher. Nice work.

Being selective is the way to go.

[stevenash]

Incredible start, Nasher. Nice work.

Being selective is the way to go.

Thanks Coiner, spot plays has always been my style.

That, and I can't stress money management enough.

Appreciate it.

[AndrewMcCutchen]

U are simply the man! You and ithinkiamgood are two most GANGSTA 'cappers on this site! Not only that, you two seem like legit, straight up good people...people I'd call my friends. You two, among many others on this forum, provide invaluable information to so many people, without asking for anything in return. I wish there was more we could do for you for all the great insight and $$ picks u give to others. Maybe you should go to your local post office and go rent a P.O. Box. That way, you could post your PO BOX address and accept "donations" from the crew that follows you daily. I sure as hell would LOVE to be able to at least ship you a nice giftcard or something along those lines.

I tip my cap!

[stevenash]

^
That's nice of you to say, thanks.

I'm not comfortable with pay for plays, it's prostitution and sleazy.

I'm just a math and baseball geek that likes doing this, applying numbers to baseball, it's a numbers driven game.

[Bhoban10]

Whats your plays for 4/12 nash?

[stevenash]

I dunno yet, later I'll have opinions, listen though, law of averages dictates I can't maintain this pace, and I won't, no handicapper can stay almost 90 percent, and there are better ones then me.

[shopbar picks]

Fantastic. Hit the sox. And the over in the rockies game. Great work thanks.

[AndrewMcCutchen]

^
That's nice of you to say, thanks.

I'm not comfortable with pay for plays, it's prostitution and sleazy.

I'm just a math and baseball geek that likes doing this, applying numbers to baseball, it's a numbers driven game.

I agree with the prostitution and sleazy comment, I just wanted to show my gratitude. I've been a math guy for as long as I can remember, as well as a baseball fanatic. I'm 30 and have been betting baseball/playing fantasy baseball for almost half my life. I can't get enough. Best of luck the rest of the way sir.

Just also wanted to bounce this off of you or anyone else...I looked at today's card and one line screamed at me. It was the total in the Royals/Twins game tomorrow, 7.5. I love the under here. Did a little digging, and these stood out:

- KC is struggling to score on the road so far in 2014, scoring 3, 1, and 1 runs in their 3 away games so far.
- KC is 27th in MLB in runs this year, that was before tonight's 1-10 defeat by the twins...
- MN is hot on offense, 7th so far in MLB, but they've scored 10 runs 3 times this year, so they are very hit or miss
- I think they miss today facing off vs James Shields
- In the last 3 years, in away games, Shields is 24-15 with a 3.04 ERA (compared to 20-16 3.25 ERA at home)
- In the last 3 years, Shields is 4-2 with a 3.35 era vs the Twins (3-1 2.76 ERA at Target Field)...he dominates that weak lineup!
- MN is going with Ricky Nolasco...He's not great, but he's not completely awful either. I think he can keep in check the KC offense which is ranked 27th in runs so far. Plus, Nolasco has never faced the KC Royals. A majority of these players have never seen him so I feel that could work to Nolasco's favor.

- Lastly, and very important to me when betting on over/unders, is the quality of the two teams bullpens. And in this case, they both have stud bullpens with stud closers.

I see this as a 3-1...5-2 at worst game in favor of the Royals. Maybe even 2-0 if Big Game James is feelin' it. What'dya think???

[Bhoban10]

yea i feel you. I've had some bad luck the past couple days hoping to get a win today though. let me know what you think the best picks for 4/12 are my man. appreciate it.

[stevenash]

^
Concerns are Kubel is very streaky and right now he's loving it in Minnesota., and and a look at the rest of the Twin roster, they hit Shields too, be cautious there, I know where you are coming from, but that total is not automatic.

[AndrewMcCutchen]

gotcha...I never go too high on totals anyways, but as always, appreciate the advice.

[Bhoban10]

whats your best plays today nash?

[stevenash]

YTD 11-2
+ (whatever) 16* or something, doesn't matter.

MASTERSON -1.5 run line +125 over White Sox

Even with the Cuban additon, White Sox are a bad, bad, offensive club.
Paulino starts for Chicago, I'll be nice, he's a hamburger.
Santana, Swisher, As-Cab, Brantley, Kipnis etc al should have their way with him.

I really think Cleveland can name the score in this spot.

Game is in Chicago, so I get the ninth inning at bat reagardless, this is a run line spot I look for.

Masterson and the Tribe 2* (Masterson must start)

[xauwatroi]

I went big on Indians. Bol nash

[actafoolzz]

Cleveland -1.5 over White Sox you mean?

[stevenash]

Cleveland -1.5 over White Sox you mean?

Yea, what did I say I was in a rush?

[stevenash]

I'll fix it when I get in, 15 mins

[AndrewMcCutchen]

Damn, missed the Nash play by about 5 minutes...Good luck with the tribe, like the pick. Hopefully Kipnis gets you the extra runs you need (He's on my team!).

[stevenash]

Brantley with the stick, keep the chain moving fellas...............

[mcdonae101]

Wtf is masterson doing

[stevenash]

Wtf is masterson doing

Not like him to puke up a 3-0 lead like that.
Plenty of time left though, this smells like one of those 12-8 games.

[Monitor-Tan]

take indians live in game

[jay89]

Liked masterson's numbers last season vs CWS. but CWS is leading in offensive categories and at home as well. ended up playing against paulino (tt o4.5).