Nash's 2014 All things MLB Talking Baseball Thread

[Big Bear]

I got nothing today, was close to pulling the trigger on Houston at +175, I still might, but not worthy of a play.

Hit our Mariner play last night for 2*

YTD

8-2 +14.18 *

any chance Paxton is okay to start Sunday?

[stevenash]

any chance Paxton is okay to start Sunday?

Dunno

[PAULYPOKER]

GameDate	Date Placed	Sport	Description	Risk/Win
Ticket#:2466529 Apr 09 07:07 PM	Apr 09 06:47 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [969] HOUSTO +175 ( ACTION )

[stevenash]

^
It's a no play, if it wins, no credit, if it loses, no deduction

This is to be counted as a no play

37948243-1

4/9/14 7:01pm

$140.00

$259.00

Pending

4/9/14 7:05pm MLB Baseball 969 Houston Astros +185* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Toronto Blue Jays (L Harrell - R must Start B Morrow - R must Start)

[PAULYPOKER]

How bout just a lean?

[TankHankerous]

GL buds

I'm on Mets ML with wheeler (+150) and under 8 in the Bronx (-110)

Let's go Tanaka!

[dlunc3]

any chance Paxton is okay to start Sunday?

McClendon said dl is likely

[DOM-Ganador]

Hey Nasher, only 2 NBA games tonight and I have no clue if any of the teams will show up due to the
playoff implications.
Think Dallas will bring it and Spurs could lay down, but probably waiting until playoffs when I know teams will bring effort.

Have some small action on the Masters, but would love a bases pick for today. Not begging, just hoping.Cheers.

[KawadaKicks17]

Why do people just assume teams bring effort in the playoffs? It's a absurdly incorrect way to think.

If the team isn't going to bring effort EVERY SINGLE NIGHT, they probably won't bring near as much in the playoffs as you are thinking.

[High3rEl3m3nt]

Why do people just assume teams bring effort in the playoffs? It's a absurdly incorrect way to think.

If the team isn't going to bring effort EVERY SINGLE NIGHT, they probably won't bring near as much in the playoffs as you are thinking.

If teams aren't bringing effort every night and they manage to make the playoffs, those players that were half-assing it would probably be more focused.

However, I tend to agree with the premise that trying harder in baseball rarely yields better results. In nearly every other sport, where trying harder or giving more effort is a good thing, baseball is a different story. More important to stay within your abilities and maintain focus, then to step outside of who you and try to give more.

[stevenash]

Brewers +109 (Estrada) over Philadelphia (Lee)

Bells and whistles should go off, red flags should be raised when you see one of the elite left handed pitchers in the game, Cliff Lee, a -119 favorite at home, agianst Estrada and the Brewers.

To the untrained eye, and even the moderate baseball fan, the initial reaction would be "shouldn't that line be at least -135 or -140?"

After Cliff Lee's opening day performance, the one where the Phillies offense gave his six runs in the second inning, in which he treated that 6-0 lead like a case of poison ivy and proceeded to give 8 runs back, I thought there was something wrong.
He has real bad abs, been placed on the DL several times because of abdoman problems. Lee said "it was one of those games", I am no so sure, Phils rallied late, Lee got a very ugly 'w' in a 11-8 final, giving up 8 earned, 11 hits, in five full innings using 101 pitches.

Very ugly.

Next start earlier this week, against the Cubs, he throws seven scoreless, but gives up ten hits, and needs 100 plus pitches again in seven innings. A timely DP and a couple of timely K's will get you 10 hit shutouts (well, seven inning shutouts)

I don't know if he has ab or any other ailments right now, I do know Lee has used about 210 pitches in April in his first two starts, or the equivalant of three starts in two games. I do know he is taxing his not very good bullpen, and I do know he can't locate his cutter, which is one of the reasons he's getting smacked around. You can not keep getting w's with spit and glue and smoke and mirrors.

There's two sides to every story, there's two sides to ever game.

As a handicapper, I ask myself, "what reasons are there to back the Brews tonight"
I know already Lee, despite two wins, is not shrarp, has been worked hard, and the lineup is aging, with a couple of exceptions.

Well, always start with the starting pticher.
Estrada is much better than people think.

2012 made 29 starts, very nice 1.14 WH/IP, ERA 3.64, don't need to look at the HR allowed column to figure out he gives up one too many homers for a low WH/IP (good control) mediocre ERA totals. Quick look at HRA column confirms he does allow a few more homers than one would like. What I do like is that over 9 K's per 9 innings stat.

2013 Estrada made 21 starts, same story, rock solid WH/IP and K ratio, HRA and ERA little high.
Still, the big picture is a very good number 3 starter, good, not great number 2 starter.

Bottom line, he's not Lee, but can be trusted even with the homer a game stat, and he's off to a good start.

I'm really getting long winded here
After breaking down the Brewer lineup, and the Phils lineup, there is no comparison, with Braun raking like 2010, and Gomez hitting like last year, and Segura, and LuCroy and everbody else, I can see why they are a top three NL offense right now.

Looking at past history, this lineup has hurt Cliff Lee

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/batvspitch/_/id/5353/cliff-lee

Both bullpens are ordinary at best.

Feeling here is too much offense on the Brewer side, Lee had better be lights out to tame that lineup, Brews bats are lethal, can overcome an Estrada mistake, Phils bats are no longer scary, Howard's days are done, Utley is on the back end of his career too....

Play here is Brews, +109 2*

Posted official record is still

YTD 8-2
+ 14.18

Brews +109 2*

[You mad bro]

[stevenash]

Cold Pitcher Matchups – April 10, 2014

Edit Matchup Criteria

Cliff Lee	PHI vs MIL 7:05PM	99	27	11	9	12	5	26	.273	.314	.559	.873

[You mad bro]

[stevenash]

lol
One thumbs up would have been enough though.
lol

[Cuse0323]

Nice insight on the game, best of luck.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Much respect for this thread. Writeup swayed me from the fence to the Brew Crew. BOL.

[stevenash]

If teams aren't bringing effort every night and they manage to make the playoffs, those players that were half-assing it would probably be more focused.

However, I tend to agree with the premise that trying harder in baseball rarely yields better results. In nearly every other sport, where trying harder or giving more effort is a good thing, baseball is a different story. More important to stay within your abilities and maintain focus, then to step outside of who you and try to give more.

The operative word is focus, you get it.
Lack of focus leads to errors, errors that give teams at bat four outs in an inning.
Execute properly, eliminate the other teams chances of extended innings, it very important.
That fourth out will bite you on the ass, almost every time.

[JonEJet]

My man Estrada outdueled Lee...and now we're in to their pen

GO BREW CREW

[ipaulster]

Thank you again, Nash! Yes, my only 2 posts here on SBR have been directed towards you in appreciation. Your analysis is consistently spot on. You are by far the best here.

[stevenash]

Thank you again, Nash! Yes, my only 2 posts here on SBR have been directed towards you in appreciation. Your analysis is consistently spot on. You are by far the best here.

Thank you for that.

Now my haters are going to start accusing you as being a shill of mine, even though those of you who have been following me for years know I don't play like that.

Ummmm, don't expect me to go 83 pervcent for the rest of the year though, but I'm off to a pretty good start.
I usually struggle in April, I tweaked a few things in my hanicapping methods for the beginning of the year.

Glad to help.

[JonEJet]

Dude is on fire

Greatly appreciate it.

[Monitor-Tan]

You can go 83% if you BELIEVE!!!!!

[AntGualdieri1]

ur killing it. keep it up bud cheers

[daneault23]

Nasher, I'm goin to the Giants game tomorrow night vs the Rockies. Bumgarner is around -165 vs De La Rosa with total at 7. Anything stick out on this game? I'm sure you'd look it over anyway, but just curious as to your initial lean, if any.

Keep up the good work my man.

[shopbar picks]

Thanks for the pick. Great write up.

[Linkan]

Thanks Nash. Really impressed and in awe of your knowledge and your generous sharing of it!

[stevenash]

Nasher, I'm goin to the Giants game tomorrow night vs the Rockies. Bumgarner is around -165 vs De La Rosa with total at 7. Anything stick out on this game? I'm sure you'd look it over anyway, but just curious as to your initial lean, if any.

Keep up the good work my man.

Enjoy the game, nothing like live baseball and 9 dollar beers I say.. Secret is stuff like 3 nips of JD in each pants pocket, you are good to go.

Too much vig on Bummy, but the over (8?) is the way to go there I think, Rox hit LHP hard, and SF will score off of that gas can.

Have fun

[Wesley]

nash

[oldscho0led]

Nash your knowledge in baseball,together w/ No Coin, is unmatched here at SBR

Thanks for the winners

[daneault23]

Enjoy the game, nothing like live baseball and 9 dollar beers I say.. Secret is stuff like 3 nips of JD in each pants pocket, you are good to go.

Too much vig on Bummy, but the over (8?) is the way to go there I think, Rox hit LHP hard, and SF will score off of that gas can.

Have fun

One step ahead of u my man. Taking the train up there and drinking is allowed so me and my girl are gonna down some before we head into the game as well as bring food so that saves us some money. Was thinking over as well.

[blowseq]

Great, great, great... BOL Steve

[El Nino]

Thanks for the Brewers last night. Pounded them.

[derekjeter8]

Hey Nash what do you think of the marlins and Fernandez tonight really like his numbers against the phillies they have a really hard time hitting him and he's on an extra day of rest. Burnett is pitching for the phillies he's struggled a lot against the cubs his last time out and I think he chokes under pressure. I believe it's a pressure situation here for the phillies they are 0-3 to start at home and to lose this game to the marlins and start 0-4 I think would come down heavy on them. Would love to hear your insight on this game.

Also I like the orioles I know the juice is like -150 but Tillman has been pitching great and I really like how the orioles bats came a live against the Yankees last series I think blue jays will struggle in this situation and also think McGowan is horrible for the blue jays and the orioles will pound him....would appreciate your knowledge on these two games.

[dlunc3]

Hey Nash what do you think of the marlins and Fernandez tonight really like his numbers against the phillies they have a really hard time hitting him and he's on an extra day of rest. Burnett is pitching for the phillies he's struggled a lot against the cubs his last time out and I think he chokes under pressure. I believe it's a pressure situation here for the phillies they are 0-3 to start at home and to lose this game to the marlins and start 0-4 I think would come down heavy on them. Would love to hear your insight on this game.

Also I like the orioles I know the juice is like -150 but Tillman has been pitching great and I really like how the orioles bats came a live against the Yankees last series I think blue jays will struggle in this situation and also think McGowan is horrible for the blue jays and the orioles will pound him....would appreciate your knowledge on these two games.

pitched lights out against the phills in the world series a few yrs back from what i can remember