135th Kentucky Derby

[floridagolfer]

Who was the last jockey to win the Derby on his first try? Anyone?

I see what there is to like about I Want Revenge, but I'd like him more with a jockey who's experienced that first quarter of a mile in front of 150,000 screaming lunatics.

[The General]

Weather forecast for Louisville is not so Bright with rain predicted all day.

6 am
57°F
Feels Like
57°F 9 am
55°F
Feels Like
53°F 12 pm
55°F
Feels Like
52°F 3 pm
58°F
Feels Like
57°F 6 pm
60°F
Feels Like
60°F 9 pm
57°F
Feels Like
57°F

[jjgold]

Tri Box

1-2-4-7-10-12-16


Tri Key

12/1-2-3-4-7-10/1-2-3-4-7-10

[Dark Horse]

Dunkirk comes in with the fastest Carroll number, when he finished second to Quality Road. Dunkirk is the only horse with a number >970. Horses >960 are Pioneer of the Nile, Chocolate Candy, and I Want Revenge, with Mr. Hot Stuff knocking on the door at 959. (I did throw out the Aqueduct numbers, which I can calculate if anyone has the track constant).

Dual qualifiers: Pioneer of the Nile, West Side Bernie, I Want Revenge, Chocolate Candy.

Pioneer of the Nile has beaten the competition (in this race) every chance he got, is coming off four straight wins, and he may not take no for an answer here either. Only ran on synthetic surface, though.

I'm not sure if this race is worth a bet. The odds don't look so hot.


==================================

[The General]

Time to head ov to the track isn't it?

[thezbar]

Racing luck is going to play a major role in the outcome of the Derby. Add a possible off track to the mix and that makes it difficult to feel strong about any one runner. On paper I pick I Want Revenge. I like his race two back and it appears he is ready to run another good race. I have doubles working with IWR #13 and Chocolate Candy #11. Candy is breed for this longer distance and horse's that have run at Santa Anita have displayed a superior fitness level when moving to a traditional dirt surface. Of the others,#3 Mr. Hot Stuff is a closer I will use in tri's and super's, #5 Friesan Fire is on a savor pick 3 ticket, But I don"t care for the long gap since his last race, nor his recent workout at Churchhill. If he wins I'm in trouble. #7 Papa Clem is a toss out off his latest work. #5 Hold Me Back is a closer I'll use in the minor spots. #15 Dunkirk could be the best but I'm thinking he's not seasoned enough for this mile and a quarter. #16 Pioneer of the Nile will have to be used because he runs his race and that could be enough to hit the board.

My trifecta play 13 with 11,15,16 with 3,5,11,15,16 total $15.00 based on a 1 dollar wager.

[thezbar]

ntra.com is reporting I Want Revenge will be scratched. I will have to rethink my plan if so.

[rpbrownie]

Just saw the conference on sportscenter its confirmed and he is out

[repski]

guys don't leave out Regal Ransom or Desert Party...from what I've read the Sheik is coming and he never comes unless they think they have a great shot.....Thorograph Sheets are picking Regal Ransom...fwiw

[rpbrownie]

good to know thanks repski BOL today

[MBENZ]

Dunkirk to win it

Exacta box 15,19,16 and 5

Triple box 15,19,16 and 5

Proceed to window and collect.

[Kav]

pioneer of the nile is my pick tonight.

[unknown Gambler]

The 5 horse HOLD ME BACK, should be a beauty.

2$ tri..........key the 5 with the 10,11,12,15,16.
2 tri............ the 10,11,12,15,16 with the 5 with 10,11,12,15,16.

50$ win the 5, 50$ place the 5. plus a few small exactas


BOL IN THE RACE.

[EastsidaProduct]

My Trifecta:

1)Chocolate Candy
2)Dunkirk
3)Westside Bernie

----------------------------

[ijustwant2bpaid]

cant believe chocolate candy is owned by jenny craig lol

[SportsLockPicks]

11-5-15 tri book it

[SportsLockPicks]

11-5-15-17 super, huge payout

[EaglesPhan36]

All $7 to win.
Hold Me Back
Desert Party
Genral Quarters

[sharktank1]

Here's my '09 Derby $ 10.00 Superfecta:

# 16: Pioneer of the Nile
# 11: Chocolate Candy
# 12: General Quarters
# 17: Summer Bird

GL guys!


Captain Shark

[The General]

Picking a winner boils down to a few fundamentals.

http://sports.yahoo.com/rah/news;_ylt=AofZ_sCfT7.RydehG_yHRkAX47kF?slug=ys-forbesderbypick050109&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

•Speed. The most practical starting point for picking a winner is checking out the Beyer Speed Figures printed exclusively in the DRF. These figures are a numerical representation of a horse’s performance, based on the final time of the race and the inherent speed over the track in which it was run. Figures are interchangeable from track to track, despite the surface, distance or class level. Simply, it is a way to compare one horse against another by how fast he runs. The higher the Beyer Speed Figure, the better the performance.

A good point of reference in picking your Derby winner is this: The average winning Derby Beyer Speed Figure is 109. Big Brown earned exactly a 109 winning last year’s edition. This year’s leaders by the numbers: I Want Revenge (113), Dunkirk (108) and Friesan Fire (104).

•Experience. Of course the need for speed has to be balanced against the horse’s experience. Not since Apollo in 1882 has a horse won the Derby without first racing as a 2-year-old. Since 1944, 53 horses have come into the Derby bearing that cross. Just six have finished in the money, most recently Curlin, who was third in 2007.

But here’s where size matters. No entry in the last 62 years has won the Derby without having run a mile and an eighth. Keppler recommends your selection must show a win or sharp second in such a race.

It’s also a good idea to pick a horse that has run in one of the “big three” prep races. Overall, 45 percent of the Derby winners have emerged from one of them: Blue Grass (23), Wood Memorial (19) and Florida Derby (19).

•Handling. Unlike coached team sports, horse racing is one that depends on the performance of its management, specifically the trainer and jockey, and their record. Keppler says to avoid those who are winless the first Saturday in May, until they prove otherwise.

Among the 2009 field, Dunkirk trainer Todd Pletcher has gone 0 for 21 at the Derby. Mr. Hot Stuff jockey John Velazquez Jr. has been cold in 0 of 9 Derby starts.

Pioneer of the Nile’s trainer, Bob Baffert, on the other hand, is going for his fourth Derby victory. His past winners include Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998) and War Emblem (2002).

On the flip side, it’s also important to see how the horse handles itself in workouts the week before the event. Although sharp workouts are common leading up to the race, those Derby hopefuls that work poorly rarely run well on race day. The DRF updates its Web site daily with workout information.

One overrated factor Keppler advises to ignore? The horse’s post position at the starting gate. Big Brown did it from the extreme outside, Post 20, last year, and horses breaking from the auxiliary gate (post 15 and higher) are a combined eight for 134 in the history of the race, but six of those wins have occurred in the last 13 years.

Keppler’s last piece of advice: Don’t bet the favorite. Only 51 of the post-time favorites have ever won the Kentucky Derby. Plus, the beauty of a long shot winner is that the payouts are always better. Check out the largest payouts in Derby History, including the most famous, Donerail, whose 1913 win still stands as the biggest long shot in the event’s history, paying off at $184.20.

And should you lose? As Keppler will quickly point out, the Preakness is just two weeks away.

[pavyracer]

I placed my bet for $500 on #15 Dunkirk to win.

Good luck gentlemen.

[slacker00]

Hold Me Back +1415

[Dfjay9]

did that just happen?

[EaglesPhan36]

Damn. I was betting on jockeys and read too much BS that turned me off Borel's horse. He was literally my 4th choice and I made 3. That dude is the balls.

[Dfjay9]

the inside rail is his strong suit. holy damn.

[FrozenMAN]

typical derby outcome......

[daggerkobe]

$7500 horse beat million dollar dog foods.

[Slim]

Papa Clem missed 3rd by a nose.

[The General]

And now we move to Derby 136. Great story written here today.

Glad to see that win.

$103 winner

[Flyers09]

every year, always a long shot..

[FrozenMAN]

if i hear he drove 21 hours one more time LOL, unreal

[Boner_18]

if i hear he drove 21 hours one more time LOL, unreal

He got pissed at this question in the interview directly following the win and he stormed off. What a prick.

[ByeShea]

I don't blame him. There's a lot more to talk about than his 21 hour car ride. Phenomenal effort and a balls out ride by Borel.

The only people who picked this horse are those who liked his name. No one even had him as dark horse.

[Richkas]

Mountaineer 9th

$100 wps #3 Trust or Bust

[Dark Horse]

F*cking mud. Only thing I was right about was assigning the public favorite (Friesan Fire) a very low speed figure. He beat only one horse. Something to build on. lol

Borrell is a lucky bastard to have the rail open up twice in three years. But that still doesn't account for that crazy burst of speed. Isn't the Derby supposed to be where three year olds run out of steam?

$2 trifecta paid 41K. Why would anyone ever again want to bet on a favorite?