Dollars2Donuts Daily NBA, NHL and NFL wagers

[FreddDS]

Another crazy night of profits! You're in full on beast mode at the moment. Thank you, D2D!

[mikmik]

Thanks for the plays and your time.

[xelemental]

Awesome! Up +$500 today. Did a 2nd half bet on Suns -6 as well. Had a feeling they were going to make a comeback.

[lividrat]

D2D must have something similar.

[madshakes]

Another great night, D2D!

[House]

Thanks again Donuts

[Deol]

Great work D2D!!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Thanks everyone, a fun night for sure. Nice to go out with the fiance and her family and come home to some good finishes. And nice to come home to all of the positive reinforcement on the thread.



I didn't get to see the Pistons game, did anyone watch it? Was the tempo and the game flow like I said? I saw the the Pistons were up for a lot of the game as I had said....love some feedback there for future considerations.

On to tonight:

Today:

3 - 2

+ $485


Total (4 days):

21 - 10

+ $1822

Just like last night, we won the important games and took a few one unit losses. I feel like I am getting a good handle on a lot of the games....and it is too bad we took that last second half a point loss on the Lakers game, that would have made a great night, even better. Tomorrow will bring a smaller NBA card, but I see a couple of NHL games that I like.....until tomorrow.


D2D

[radostin.dimi]

Good job man keep it up!

[Smoke]

[twestacott]

Great work D2D!!!! I'll trade a couple small loses to hit the 3 bigger plays any night. The Lakers game was so close.

What are your NHL leans tonight? I am liking the Buffalo TT under, Ottawa ML, Carolina ML and the under in Ottawa and Carolina on first glance but have to look into games further later today.

[twestacott]

I'll also add the Flames in regulation to that list of leans. Arizona has been brutal on the road and I think everyone knows what the Flames have been doing.

[Russian Rocket]

Thanks everyone, a fun night for sure. Nice to go out with the fiance and her family and come home to some good finishes. And nice to come home to all of the positive reinforcement on the thread.



I didn't get to see the Pistons game, did anyone watch it? Was the tempo and the game flow like I said? I saw the the Pistons were up for a lot of the game as I had said....love some feedback there for future considerations.

On to tonight:

Today:

3 - 2

+ $485


Total (4 days):

21 - 10

+ $1822

Just like last night, we won the important games and took a few one unit losses. I feel like I am getting a good handle on a lot of the games....and it is too bad we took that last second half a point loss on the Lakers game, that would have made a great night, even better. Tomorrow will bring a smaller NBA card, but I see a couple of NHL games that I like.....until tomorrow.


D2D

solid work Ducky

[Rudeboy]

D2D what you liking for pucks tonight? I have a feeling you like the Jets again

[Dollars2Donuts]

Thanks everyone.....unfortunately I do not have the time today to do any write-ups on the games. I basically write my thought process out, so for those of you wondering how to pick games, concentrate on the things that I look for.

On to today:

273750079-1	11/13/14 1:23pm	$117.00	$100.00	Pending	11/13/14 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 4 Carolina Hurricanes -117* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Winnipeg Jets
273750079-2	11/13/14 1:23pm	$236.00	$200.00	Pending	11/13/14 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 7 San Jose Sharks/Tampa Bay Lightning Over 5½ -118*
273750079-3	11/13/14 1:23pm	$140.00	$100.00	Pending	11/13/14 7:35pm Reduced Hockey 8 Tampa Bay Lightning -140* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> San Jose Sharks
273750079-4	11/13/14 1:23pm	$130.00	$100.00	Pending	11/13/14 9:05pm Reduced Hockey 14 Calgary Flames -130* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Arizona Coyotes
273750079-5	11/13/14 1:23pm	$200.00	$210.00	Pending	11/13/14 9:35pm Reduced Hockey 15 Ottawa Senators/Edmonton Oilers Over 5½ +105*
273750079-6	11/13/14 1:23pm	$100.00	$102.00	Pending	11/13/14 9:35pm Reduced Hockey 16 Edmonton Oilers +102* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Ottawa Senators
273749962-1	11/13/14 1:21pm	$140.00	$100.00	Pending	11/13/14 8:05pm Reduced Basketball 502 Toronto Raptors -140* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Chicago Bulls
273749962-2	11/13/14 1:21pm	$107.00	$100.00	Pending	11/13/14 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 504 Memphis Grizzlies -6 -107* <small style="padding: 0px; margin: 0px;">vs</small> Sacramento Kings
273749962-3	11/13/14 1:21pm	$103.00	$100.00	Pending	11/13/14 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 503 Sacramento Kings/Memphis Grizzlies Under 189 -103*
273749962-4	11/13/14 1:21pm	$157.50	$150.00	Pending	11/13/14 8:35pm Reduced Basketball 505 Philadelphia 76ers/Dallas Mavericks Over 210½ -105*

For really the first time you are seeing a few juiced plays....and I am ok with that given the way today's card plays out. My favourite play overall may be Tampa Bay, but you will notice that I only risked 1.4 units....only because I am juice averse at this time.

Good luck.

[GzaTheGenius]

Loving Tampa tonight as well, also really liking the rangers. Too much juice on them for ya?

[Jayvegas420]

GL tonight.
No NFL?

[IRISH626]

Thanks Donuts! Good Luck to you!

[dalogester]

If someone could post his picks,or pm them to me I would appreciate it. I'm on mobile I'll give points, any takers?

[Playoff_Beard]

How do you feel about the line movement in Tampa? Seems to be going the other way although the public is on the Lightning.

[TrojanMan8]

If someone could post his picks,or pm them to me I would appreciate it. I'm on mobile I'll give points, any takers?

Since many posters on mobile will ask.

Risk	To Win	Plays
$117.00	$100.00	Carolina -117* vs Winnipeg
$236.00	$200.00	San Jose/Tampa Bay Over 5½ -118*
$140.00	$100.00	Tampa Bay -140* vs San Jose
$130.00	$100.00	Calgary -130* vs Arizona
$200.00	$210.00	Ottawa/Edmonton Over 5½ +105*
$100.00	$102.00	Edmonton +102* vs Ottawa
$140.00	$100.00	Toronto -140* vs Chicago
$107.00	$100.00	Memphis -6 -107* vs Sacramento
$103.00	$100.00	Sacramento/Memphis Under 189 -103*
$157.50	$150.00	Philadelphia/Dallas Over 210½ -105*

[gregmav1]

If someone could post his picks,or pm them to me I would appreciate it. I'm on mobile I'll give points, any takers?

Hurricanes -117 1 unit
Sharks/Lightning Over 5.5 -118 2 units
Lightning -140 1 unit
Flames -130 1 unit
Senators/Oilers Over 5.5 +105 2 units
Oilers +102 1 unit
Raptors -140 1 unit
Grizzlies -6 1 unit
Kings/Grizzlies Under 189 1 unit
76ers/Mavs Over 210.5 1.5 units

edit: someone just posted them before me

[HeinrichII]

For the ones on mobile (like me), hit the Quote button on D2D picks message and you will be able to see the picks. Its not so clear to read but its enough for a solution.

D2D, you're on a great run, keep up the great work and thank you for sharing.

[frugalgambler]

GL D2D. Too bad there will be no your writeups today; they are well written and insightful.

[Playoff_Beard]

For the ones on mobile (like me), hit the Quote button on D2D picks message and you will be able to see the picks. Its not so clear to read but its enough for a solution.

D2D, you're on a great run, keep up the great work and thank you for sharing.

Genius

[spider]

If someone could post his picks,or pm them to me I would appreciate it. I'm on mobile I'll give points, any takers?

$117.00	$100.00	Carolina Hurricanes -117* vs Winnipeg Jets
$236.00	$200.00	San Jose Sharks/Tampa Bay Lightning Over 5½ -118*
$140.00	$100.00	Tampa Bay Lightning -140* vs San Jose Sharks
$130.00	$100.00	Calgary Flames -130* vs Arizona Coyotes
$200.00	$210.00	Ottawa Senators/Edmonton Oilers Over 5½ +105*
$100.00	$102.00	Edmonton Oilers +102* vs Ottawa Senators
$140.00	$100.00	Toronto Raptors -140* vs Chicago Bulls
$107.00	$100.00	Memphis Grizzlies -6 -107* vs Sacramento Kings
$103.00	$100.00	Sacramento Kings/Memphis Grizzlies Under 189 -103*
$157.50	$150.00	Philadelphia 76ers/Dallas Mavericks Over 210½ -105*

[RollinDo]

Really like a lot of these today, especially Raps, TB Over, TB.
But my play of the week so far we are split on.
Got Edmonton Under...good size play.
Just curious as to your thinking on that one.

[twestacott]

Thanks everyone.....unfortunately I do not have the time today to do any write-ups on the games. I basically write my thought process out, so for those of you wondering how to pick games, concentrate on the things that I look for.

Can you clarify the things that you look for in a game?

[twestacott]

Stupid double posting internet connection

[Smoke]

[Dollars2Donuts]

Really like a lot of these today, especially Raps, TB Over, TB.
But my play of the week so far we are split on.
Got Edmonton Under...good size play.
Just curious as to your thinking on that one.

The biggest reasons are Edmonton versus an Eastern opponent and Ottawa against a young team with a weak defensive scheme.

The Oilers (who should not be underdogs here, thus the ML play on them) are playing well against the East but getting killed versus the West. This isn't a big surprise as the Oilers are quick, skilled and matchup well against almost every team in the East, who play a much more open style of play. One of those teams that doesn't is Ottawa, but given the venue and the quality of their opponent the Sens will open up their game and skate.

Add to that it is a Canadian matchup and it will be televised nationally and this only adds to both teams motivation. And yes, for those of you out there (and there are a lot) that happen to think that every team plays hard every night or that motivation is not a key factor in the NHL and NBA....you are wrong. In certain cases it can be the largest consideration for me.

I think this game goes over easily and can see 3-4 goals in the first period alone.

Prediction: 5-3 Oilers victory.

[Dollars2Donuts]

Can you clarify the things that you look for in a game?

Wow. That may be the toughest question anyone has ever asked. There must be thousands of determining factors. Long term historical trends, short term trends, similar opponent analysis, motivation (see above), scheme analysis, player on player analysis, short term player trends, long term player trends, coaching styles and location are just a few off of the top of my head. These all need to be weighted and balanced and then a decision needs to be made.

Sports wagering is not about picking the winner (although that is fantastic and is our goal in its simplest form), it is about analyzing the matchup and determining your weighted results and making a decision about the precision of your analysis...then weighing all of those statistics against the line to see if a wager makes sense.

My process each and every day:

1. Read through the previous day's results and the next day's games, not reading anything in depth beyond just the frnt page (no game analysis at all).

2. I write down my initial leans, with ZERO information on the game beyond what I have in my head and write these down.

3. Forget about everything for an hour or two.

4. Come back to the games and do a deeper dive. Read as many previews as you feel you need to get a handle on the game. Research the starting lineups, look at historical data and trends in that data.

5. Once again, write down a score for that game, using all of the above info and then look back at your original leans and compare. Also write down the strength of that play.

6. Open your book and check out your lines.

7. See which lines work best with your analysis....and look for outliers. If you believe a certain game is 50/50 and you can get the dog at +150 that becomes a very strong play....it is those outliers that you want to focus on. Same thing, you think a basketball game is going to hit 220 and the o/u is 196, this becomes an outlier and a very strong bet.

You alao muat remember that you absolutely need a history with sports and the intuition that comes along with it. Intuition is our mind taking a million factors into account and processing them like a computer. There is no such thing as a 'hunch' gambler....and there never will be.


NOW, it is very important that when predicting your games that you do NOT try to guess the line. There is a huge difference between guessing the line and trying to figure out how you would rate the game. This can be tough at first, but it is imperative that you are able to separate the two.


It is is tough to put all of this down on paper. I can only compare it to my career. I am in sales and am very successful in my role. Some people think there is ONE way to sell....I see it all the time. I do not subscribe to that school. There are many different ways to sell and there are infinite combinations of ways to 'cap'. Whatever way you choose, just make sure you put your heart into it, you manage yourself and you will most likely be successful.

At the same time...if you can't put the work in....don't waste your time or your money.


D2D

[Ardmorite]

New register but have been following your thread for a long time. Love the great info u give out. Keep it coming.

[FlyinAir]

Well said DD, good luck today

[Dollars2Donuts]

Adding a play on the Bills Dolphins game tonight.

Dolphins -4.5 @ -105

$210 to win $200