Parlay Celtics ML and Cavs ML = Even money pay-out

fearless · 02-08-09, 11:15 AM

Based on line movement:

Celtics ML - OUT
Cavs ML- IN
Magic ML - IN

pavyracer · 02-08-09, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by fearless

I'm liking this bet right now. What does everyone think?

I have parlayed the Spurs +250 with the Lakers +185 for 10 to 1 odds.

seaborneq · 02-08-09, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I have parlayed the Spurs +250 with the Lakers +185 for 10 to 1 odds.

taking both road teams is too risky, choose one home team and split the money. I can't see two of the best teams in the league losing on their home floors.

fearless · 02-08-09, 12:19 PM

If I was gonna make a dog parlay it would be Spurs ML with Twolves ML. Let's see how it goes.

pavyracer · 02-08-09, 12:20 PM

It has the same probability as two home favs covering today but with 10 to 1 odds instead of 1 to 1 odds. I only need to hit one of these plays every 10 to win the same amount of money with playing both favs with 4 teams with very good winning records.

Mac4Lyfe · 02-08-09, 12:32 PM

Spurs will be well rested to take on Boston. Popovich aint no dummy and that was a calculated move to get ready for their trip out east. This game will be very close and I won't be surprised if the Spurs win convincingly.

Lakers may be out of sync team wise with the Radmon trade. They also got all the calls at home. I'm going Cav's and Spurs today.

A pick I really like is the Net's +11.5 over the Magic. The Magic are a totally different team without Nelson and the Net's are on a 4 game win streak with the last 2 being blowouts.

seaborneq · 02-08-09, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

It has the same probability as two home favs covering today but with 10 to 1 odds instead of 1 to 1 odds. I only need to hit one of these plays every 10 to win the same amount of money with playing both favs with 4 teams with very good winning records.

Let's compare apples to apples. These home teams have the best records in the league, one of them undefeated at home through nearly 50 games of play, the other is defending champs coming off of a recent home loss. Not the same probability as just two home favs.

pavyracer · 02-08-09, 12:35 PM

The way I see it seabonerq is the two best East teams playing the two best West teams. Anything can happen and both games are toss ups.

So a 10 to 1 has much more value than a 1 to 1 parlay.

fearless · 02-08-09, 12:36 PM

The Hornets are in big trouble! Watching line movement.

Before the big 3 arrived Duncan had NEVER lost to the Celtics in his whole career. I think the Spurs are gonna shock people today. I didn't guarantee a win but I think it's like 50/50.

ryanXL977 · 02-08-09, 12:39 PM

those arent gimmy games
either road team could win, esp lakers

Mac4Lyfe · 02-08-09, 12:42 PM

Originally posted by fearless

The Hornets are in big trouble! Watching line movement.

Before the big 3 arrived Duncan had NEVER lost to the Celtics in his whole career. I think the Spurs are gonna shock people today. I didn't guarantee a win but I think it's like 50/50.

I like the Spurs as well... Is Chris Paul still out?

fearless · 02-08-09, 12:44 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

those arent gimmy games
either road team could win, esp lakers

I've bet against Boston. Either team could lose especially Boston. Cavs should definitely win. Almost a lock but not quite.

fearless · 02-08-09, 12:45 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I like the Spurs as well... Is Chris Paul still out?

Yes. I think the Hornets might be the fade of the day.

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:04 PM

Originally posted by fearless

The Hornets are in big trouble! Watching line movement.

Before the big 3 arrived Duncan had NEVER lost to the Celtics in his whole career. I think the Spurs are gonna shock people today. I didn't guarantee a win but I think it's like 50/50.

Celtics -7 second half now it's literally a 50/50 shot.

Mac4Lyfe · 02-08-09, 02:08 PM

Originally posted by fearless

Yes. I think the Hornets might be the fade of the day.

If so, I will fade pretty big. I'm going to wait right until tipoff though. You never know when a guy makes a miraculous recovery that energizes the team/crowd.

pavyracer · 02-08-09, 02:09 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

I have parlayed the Spurs +250 with the Lakers +185 for 10 to 1 odds.

If the Spurs win I have a nice hedging opportunity.

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:14 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

If so, I will fade pretty big. I'm going to wait right until tipoff though. You never know when a guy makes a miraculous recovery that energizes the team/crowd.

I'm saying that based on line movement and common sense that's a great play. I'm not guaranteeing anything.

donjuan · 02-08-09, 02:15 PM

If the Spurs win I have a nice hedging opportunity.

Or you could have just bet on the Spurs and not paid the vig on a hedge.

Robust · 02-08-09, 02:17 PM

that rlm on the cavs looks real good.. still sticking with my numbers, but I lean heavily on rlm in most games.

good luck fearless

Robust

pavyracer · 02-08-09, 02:18 PM

Yeah but if the Spurs lose I don't have to risk more money on Lakers.

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:22 PM

Cavs win should not be a problem.

ryanXL977 · 02-08-09, 02:40 PM

lakers will win +180

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

lakers will win +180

I feel much better about my pick now.

ryanXL977 · 02-08-09, 02:50 PM

good to hear
fade away, but i dont see howd you make much money on nba fading me. fade me on nfl or ncaa, but i wouldnt fade me on nba or mlb. gl to you

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

good to hear
fade away, but i dont see howd you make much money on nba fading me. fade me on nfl or ncaa, but i wouldnt fade me on nba or mlb. gl to you

I'm not fading you. I started this thread like 15 hours ago. What an ego.

ryanXL977 · 02-08-09, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by fearless

I feel much better about my pick now.

pretty clearly referring to me, so im not sure if thats my ego there

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:56 PM

Originally posted by ryanXL977

pretty clearly referring to me, so im not sure if thats my ego there

How could I be fading you when I made this pick official like six hours ago. I'm saying that you taking the other side makes me feel much more comfortable.

fearless · 02-08-09, 02:57 PM

Ryan, another one goes on ignore.

ryanXL977 · 02-08-09, 02:57 PM

so the implication is that i am bad at nba,

gotcha

gl dude

Doc JS · 02-08-09, 03:12 PM

Originally posted by pavyracer

If the Spurs win I have a nice hedging opportunity.

Pavy,
If the Spurs win, how do you determine the amount to hedge to maximize your winnings?

Doc

fearless · 02-08-09, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by Doc JS

Pavy,
If the Spurs win, how do you determine the amount to hedge to maximize your winnings?

Doc

Call in Ganchrow.

Mac4Lyfe · 02-08-09, 03:23 PM

It's not IF the Spurs win, it's NOW that the Spurs have won....

pavyracer · 02-08-09, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by Doc JS

Pavy,
If the Spurs win, how do you determine the amount to hedge to maximize your winnings?

Doc

Doc,

I would only hedge with the ML for my original unit size. So for 1 unit and the ML for Cavs at -200 I would put 2 units on the Cavs. If Lakers win I win 7 units. If Lakers lose I'm even.

I can also put 4 units on the Cavs and guarantee one unit win or 5 units win with Cavs loss.

ryanXL977 · 02-08-09, 03:28 PM

who is the genius who posted this thread
moron

imawiener · 02-08-09, 03:34 PM

02/08/09 Lakers (LA) +8 15:35 ET
(-170)