Help with line movements!

[wizcodlifa]

I saw it on vegans insider. Jesus. It was late last night

[brettd]

Brett...can I ask what some of your parameters were for "steaming" in terms of how much of a move, or how many books needed to move? And I assume you were using Sports Insights or Don Best?

I was using Don Best. In terms of the conditions for steaming, I'll leave that for you to work out.

It takes a while to get a handle of what lines moves mean at certain books. But once you do, you will win at a solid clip until you are restricted. No-one likes a steam chaser and you won't get much love from the book's trading team.

[brettels]

covers.com

[husky]

I was using Don Best. In terms of the conditions for steaming, I'll leave that for you to work out.

It takes a while to get a handle of what lines moves mean at certain books. But once you do, you will win at a solid clip until you are restricted. No-one likes a steam chaser and you won't get much love from the book's trading team.

Thanks Brett. I suppose you had notifications set up for when a line moved? I am assuming that watching books like Pinny, Bookmaker, and 5Dimes would be beneficial and watch for moves ocurring at the same time.

[brettd]

Thanks Brett. I suppose you had notifications set up for when a line moved? I am assuming that watching books like Pinny, Bookmaker, and 5Dimes would be beneficial and watch for moves ocurring at the same time.

I interfaced with the Don Best API to construct custom notifications. Don't just watch books 'like' Pinny, Bookmaker or 5Dimes. One thing I learned is that different books host different client profiles who are in turn good/bad in specific markets.

[MikeTizzy]

game info, and amount money on either side of market moves lines one way or another. This i know for sure. But usually the game dynamics within that specific game and the edges whichever side has, doesnt usually correlate at all to the lines itself. A perfect example i have in mlb. D'backs Miley whenever he faces the Padres, always always get hit hard by most if not all of their hitters and hardly ever fairs well, as in odds are stacked against him. The final scores always correlate this dynamic as well, you look them up if u like. But the thing is, the lines always move towards the D'backs and the last matchup he had vs the Pads, i believe it closed at -175 @home. And once again he and D'backs lost. So how aren't the padres favored at least a bit in this matchup?? What i find to be true is, lines have no correlation to the highest probable outcomes, and very few trends actually exist as facts. I take a game by game approach, and only track what metrics and stats that are relevant to that specific game, and apply new intangibles if needed. use my IQ of the game at hand. This i found to be most successful for sure. So what im suggesting is, dont waste ur time of tracking those data. Line movements is for marketing purposes, and to adjust info coming into that specific game. Thats pretty much it.

[brettd]

game info, and amount money on either side of market moves lines one way or another. This i know for sure. But usually the game dynamics within that specific game and the edges whichever side has, doesnt usually correlate at all to the lines itself. A perfect example i have in mlb. D'backs Miley whenever he faces the Padres, always always get hit hard by most if not all of their hitters and hardly ever fairs well, as in odds are stacked against him. The final scores always correlate this dynamic as well, you look them up if u like. But the thing is, the lines always move towards the D'backs and the last matchup he had vs the Pads, i believe it closed at -175 @home. And once again he and D'backs lost. So how aren't the padres favored at least a bit in this matchup?? What i find to be true is, lines have no correlation to the highest probable outcomes, and very few trends actually exist as facts. I take a game by game approach, and only track what metrics and stats that are relevant to that specific game, and apply new intangibles if needed. use my IQ of the game at hand. This i found to be most successful for sure. So what im suggesting is, dont waste ur time of tracking those data. Line movements is for marketing purposes, and to adjust info coming into that specific game. Thats pretty much it.

At the end of the day, i'll quote Pinnacle's Head of Sportsbook, "money talks".

Those with an edge have BR's that eventually grow to a point where they influence the market. If you can figure when those with an edge are betting, then you will gain an advantage also. However it's not the best way to make money in sports betting.

It's better to be the 'originator'; the one with the models, so you are the one with first mover advantage. But for many people, steam chasing is the closest they'll ever get to holding an advantage.

[Big Bear]

ask no coin he studies that stuff all day