Nuggets -7.5 (Game 5)

[The Kraken]

But you actually did pay extra for the +7.5 because the rest of us got +8 at the same price. +7.5 was +101 when I got the 8. I actually got it at -108

You win by a hook and declare you got a sharp # when you didn't even get the best #

Anyways congrats on your win.

[tto827]

You're too nice kraken
This guy is a grade a moron

Bragging about the fact that him betting +7.5 makes the line move to 8

[bubblebuttluv]

So you do make good betsStop the juicing dawg

Well you know, we all have our moments homeboy.

[bubblebuttluv]

You're too nice kraken
This guy is a grade a moron

Bragging about the fact that him betting +7.5 makes the line move to 8

You just like talking mad shit over the internet.

[k4cowboys4k]

You just like talking mad shit over the internet.

No, its the fact that you're proving yourself a moron by thinking betting the +7.5 caused a move to +8 and then in turn thinking your +7.5 bet was sharp

[Potentate]

To be fair though, if you like the favorite, -6 is still better than -7.5 or -8. And like y'all are saying, if you like Warriors, wait for the Nuggets to make their first really big run and when the public starts hammering the nuggets, take the live line on the Warriors.

Guys, y'all are missing the real opportunity to give props here... POTENTATE threw multiple units on a +13 live line after the Nuggets made their first big run! That's called execution and might I say it's a fairly sharp move...

[agharah1]

Being sharp is about getting the best number on the side all the data points to. If you had a chance to get Golden State +8 and instead you got it +7.5, then you got it after all the real sharps bet the line down. You didn't get the best line, so the fact that you won doesn't make you sharp, it just makes you lucky.

[StevenSuarez]

[phillybadboy]

bubblebutt is sharp. rest square, i tailed huge.

[JayLA]

can it be argued a line this close should have been avoided? maybe betting live was the better move.

[Art Vandelay]

Actually I always think 7 is the key number. Team usually keep fouling if they are down by 6. Usually, they stop fouling when they're down by 7 , especially if they don't have multiple timeouts. I could be wrong but as far as I remember, Celtics did the same thing in game 1 against Knicks ( same spread as well ). I think mathematically, its impossible to mount a comeback down by 7 and not having the possession of the ball. Tell me how often a team wins a game in that situation?

Not too often. A 3 possession game with 25 seconds to play and the opponent has the ball. You just take the "cover" for your fan base and go home for Game 6. And by the way, GS will win that one!

[Potentate]

I think the one mistake most cappers made here was giving the Warriors just a tad too little credit and OBVIOUSLY, the sharp ass line was a reflection of that. Everyone knew the Nuggets were going to be in good form with their backs against the wall at home. Everyone "knew" they would win and everyone knew it would be by more than a few points. The mistake was not realizing that even if the Nuggs pulled it off in the end, it would be hard for them to beat the Warriors by 7 or more points. The books got the public (taking the chalk at home) by a point or so. Happens all the time.

Knowing this angle gives you the live backdoor cover play, which is my personal favorite. ALPO, for life.

[The Kraken]

You're too nice kraken
This guy is a grade a moron

Bragging about the fact that him betting +7.5 makes the line move to 8

I was trying to give him the benefit of the doubt of just not understanding but he's obviously not interested in anything other than chucking darts.

can it be argued a line this close should have been avoided? maybe betting live was the better move.

It can Jay but honestly it's a futile argument. The problem with argument is that it's made with the luxury of hindsight which we could never have before placing the bet. You often run into similar scenarios with live betting.

[k4cowboys4k]

I think the one mistake most cappers made here was giving the Warriors just a tad too little credit and OBVIOUSLY, the sharp ass line was a reflection of that. Everyone knew the Nuggets were going to be in good form with their backs against the wall at home. Everyone "knew" they would win and everyone knew it would be by more than a few points. The mistake was not realizing that even if the Nuggs pulled it off in the end, it would be hard for them to beat the Warriors by 7 or more points. The books got the public (taking the chalk at home) by a point or so. Happens all the time.

Knowing this angle gives you the live backdoor cover play, which is my personal favorite. ALPO, for life.

How did the books get the public? According to SBR over 60% was on Golden State. Is this number wrong?

[The Kraken]

K4, very much so. Those %'s on all sites are crap. Very unreliable.

[Potentate]

How did the books get the public? According to SBR over 60% was on Golden State. Is this number wrong?

I'm not sure it's necessarily wrong, but that's why I threw in the parentheses (taking the chalk at home)... It would have been better to say "the squares" instead of the public.

[k4cowboys4k]

Ok, wasn't sure how reliable these numbers are or if you guys had more accurate percentages from another site

[tto827]

Ok, wasn't sure how reliable these numbers are or if you guys had more accurate percentages from another site

I go to SBR, covers, scoresandodds, and vegasinsider, you can usually get a feel and just ignore it if one place has a huge discrepancy.

[secret007]

Not too often. A 3 possession game with 25 seconds to play and the opponent has the ball. You just take the "cover" for your fan base and go home for Game 6. And by the way, GS will win that one!

lol clippers fouling down 7 and Memphis has the ball with 10 secs remaining.

[vyomguy]

lol clippers fouling down 7 and Memphis has the ball with 10 secs remaining.

This is what pissed me off about warriors. They had 25 seconds left and decided not to foul. Whereas clippers kept fouling even down 7 and just 10 seconds left.

[amrit]

^^ my exact thoughts! In the Denver game it cost me the win, and the Clippers game it cost me my under...talk about getting fukked twice.

Any plays tomorrow Vyom?

[bubblebuttluv]

I see a lot of keyboard warriors spent time on commenting on my shit. I just got done cashing on Grizzlies second half and came back here to see the hate.

[bubblebuttluv]

Y'all let me know if you guys want some winning plays tomorrow. I'm giving this shit out for free.

[The Kraken]

Bubbles nobody hates you. Just pointing out the flaw in your logic. Winning a few bets doesn't make you sharp nor does winning a bet mean you made a sharp bet. Even the squarest of squares hit close to 50%.

Common guy, you're not big time enough to have haters.

[tto827]

Please BubbleButt, give us some more winners after the fact

[secret007]

This is what pissed me off about warriors. They had 25 seconds left and decided not to foul. Whereas clippers kept fouling even down 7 and just 10 seconds left.

The "right" thing is not to foul. Stop fouling when your team does not have any chance to make comeback! You have 47 freaking minutes to try to win the game and you fail and suddenly you want to do something when you cant win? Ridiculous.

[secret007]

^^ my exact thoughts! In the Denver game it cost me the win, and the Clippers game it cost me my under...talk about getting fukked twice.

Any plays tomorrow Vyom?

What under? is it the second half under? i thought 2nd half O/U is set at 90.

[Aye J Mac]

^^ i put 45 k on denver ML and 100 k on the spread ..all day

im glad i took that hook -7 (push) and won my moneyline.. hahaha loser!!

[19th Hole]

guys got it all wrong
even if nuggets go down some, live lines will still have at least -6, or something close to pregame spread. Unless they go down by20, doubt you get anything around 4. Books arent dumb, theyre down 3-1 @ home, they know(or at least theyre gonna protect themselves) the nuggets comeback is inevitable if they go down a bit. Im gonna take denver 1st quarter/1st half. Gotta think they come out blazing with their season on the line. If you like gsw, id wait to get a live line.

Seems like a +7.5 GS and Nuggets ML kind of game.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

[bubblebuttluv]

Please BubbleButt, give us some more winners after the fact

It's bubblebuttluv not BubbleButt. Come correct, f.u.c.k.e.r.

[Smoke]

This is what pissed me off about warriors. They had 25 seconds left and decided not to foul. Whereas clippers kept fouling even down 7 and just 10 seconds left.

Lion relax buddy its only a game

[TheMoneyShot]

This is what pissed me off about warriors. They had 25 seconds left and decided not to foul. Whereas clippers kept fouling even down 7 and just 10 seconds left.

Correct. 25 seconds left... not fouling. extremely suspicious. That's when you know some casino in vegas took in way too much on one side... and said listen... we need this side to win OR ELSE. No excuse to not foul... plenty of time left. We've seen 7 pt leads erased in 18 seconds in this league before.

[You mad bro]

YAY I WIN GS +8 ... yeah all good after the fact .

half these people didnt even post until the game was over who they had

[Smoke]

You mad bro is right