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Dd great job... Might be time to bump up the plays a bit...Props.
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Thanks boys.
It was a small day for me with only a few hundred bet across 6 games. I will be back to normal amounts when the games justify it. The Indiana pick I am quite proud of.....I think everything else was on the other side, and to hit the ML on it was fun.
GL tonight everyone!Comment -
Donut for the win
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Indiana was gift-wrapped on a silver platter, how anyone could have justified playing the Knicks for the series or even this game is beyond me. Pacers are basically a faster, younger, bigger, stronger version of the Celtics, who lets be honest, if they could shoot the ball better than a JCC team, probably would still be playing.Comment -
Alrighty guys, off to the airport again....but before I go here is a recap of yesterday:
Yesterday:
5-1
3-0 in MLB
2-0 in NBA
0-1 in NHL
+ $306
Totals (81 documented days):
596-490-30
+ $ 12,489.35
Play of the Day (NO CHANGE):
32 - 16
+ $5029.93
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So, yesterday was this thread's 30 day mark. Here is a quick recap for everyone reading:
228 wins
171 losses
+ $6146
POD:
13 wins
5 losses
+ $1493
Now, those are all awesome numbers....I mean I think our win-rate could be a few percentage points higher, BUT a couple of big things.....we are showing consistency, we have grown for 81 days and in fact my bet-sizing will be adjusted to show that quite soon (right now my unit size is approximately $50 and we generally bet 1-5 units per play, soon it will be $75 per unit as we have almost reached our next BankRoll level).
Even with that there is one number that means more to me......a lot more. In the last 81 days we have gone from being a small group, and moved into a different level......in the last 30 days we have over 90,000 views.....which of course equals over 3000 hits per day. I cannot tell you how much those numbers mean to me. I just want to thank the people that have stuck it out (Coreos, fitguy67, Kpn, funguys_2005, Minnesota_Nice, bald_guy and DiggetyDaggetyDo and tto just to name a few) and all of the people that have more recently hopped on board (Smoke, MonkeyMoney, etc, etc).....and of course I have forgotten a load of you, I hope I haven't offended anyone!!
Of course everyone knows that I never suggest that people tail the picks.....but to those that do, I raise my glass and salute you for having the confidence to put your money where my mouth is.
This website has meant a lot to me.....it has helped me control my bankroll management skills and other posters have given me ideas and suggestions that I would never have thought of! In other words this place means as much to me as seeing consistent winners mean to others. I think everyone who has read my thread understands that I have only been doing this for 5 months total and that I have much to learn, and by my own admission I know I can be better....but I hope over these last 81 days I have helped some people and that I have proved that I have the talent to do this.....as I have mentioned before statistics used to be a bit of a hobby for me....so I am thinking that we are getting to the point that we have become statistically significant.
Once again I am off to the airport....and one more thing before I close my laptop.....I can assure you that as long as I am making good wagers, and as long as people are reading this, I WILL be posting.....
BOL today.....
D2DComment -
Thank you for this nice ride D2D! BOL to you!Comment -
good ishhh donuts!!!
need some insight into the NBA game today.....
i had a bad night yesturday picking the knicks!!!!
lastly do you think its a bad idea doing quarter bets? as in which team will win the quarter?
i thought knicks would stay in the lead in the 2nd and i was so so wrong!!! lost 400 last nightComment -
Best post I read all year ! Here here, keep it up D2D. Great fellow this one here...Comment -
Ur a fkin champ D2D! Cheers to your success
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Great work D2D!!! Nice to see you starting to hit baseball. I haven't been following that one, but have been tailing pretty much everything else especially the POD's. For me Baseball took the longest to figure out. It's not like the other sports because they play everyday and one player (the pitcher) can always make a huge difference. Football, basketball and hockey are more team, momentum and attitude driven. You seem to bet a lot like me, where as you follow stats, but how teams are doing currently and how they will react to their last game are major factors. Baseball that doesn't matter nearly as much. Just an FYI I have had by far the most success in Baseball since they added the 1st 5 line. Now I strictly follow starting pitchers and how they perform versus certain teams, stadiums, etc..and bet the first 5 80% of the time also taking into consideration all the other factors.
Keep up the good work and looking forward to more success...and I told you that was a great Avatar!!!!!!!! LOL...Now no more changing her until there is a cold streak or Smoke brings back the scary dude grinding his nuts on the pole in the pool!Comment -
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Drink a beer on the plane. You deserve it, D2D.
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Appreciate all the time and effort you put in pal, it obviously doesn't go unnoticed or unappreciated.. Hell, after about 4 of your posts you collect enough points for a free pizza.. Dominos must think you have one hell of a scam.. Thata boy.. I've always thought of sports betting as a test.. You can take the test alone, and best of luck to you.. Or brainstorm and take the test as a group.. Now thats where I like my odds.. BOL GangComment -
Well, thanks for all the kudos guys....much appreciated.
Now, on to another day.....you will see something that hasn't been around in a while, a good ol' Teaser. Those of you that have followed from the start will know that they have treated us VERY well with a record of 12-2 on non-multiple teased bets. Today's is WAY smaller than most as I don't usually bother with anything less than 3 games on a ticket, but I like this one so much....boom.
Also, I know not everyone follows in baseball, and I get that....I had less than a stellar start going under .500 for the first 3 weeks of the season, but I am starting to pull it out better now. I am not going to say that it was unlucky, but I will say that it seemed that every game had something odd in it, a late inning blown save or something.....I am seeing value that I didn't recognize before, our games aren't breaking down and we are 12-4-3 over the last 3 days....and I honestly believe, for the first time, the MLB will work out for me just as well as hoops and puck have.
You will also notice that I have a first half play on MIA. I cannot be sure what the final score is (I am still leaning Heat cover 12....couldn't bet it because of player status and now the line has moved so much that it is a NO PLAY for me), but one thing I am sure is that the Heat are coming out and looking to show the world something. They are embarrassed that they lost their streak to an undermanned Bulls team and tonight they will come out firing.....the layoff should not mean anything.
You will notice there is one total in here for tomorrow's game....Memphis/OKC over 186. I don't see any way this game doesn't go over....in fact this game may go over 200. But I have a thing about betting too far out, so I wouldn't let myself put anything more than a 2 unit play on it.
Here are the rest of today's plays:
PS, NO POD for today....178450663-1 5/6/13 3:32pm $71.50 $50.00 Pending 5/6/13 10:15pm MLB Baseball 958 San Francisco Giants -143* <small>vs</small> Philadelphia Phillies (C Lee - L must Start M Bumgarner - L must Start) 178450663-2 5/6/13 3:32pm $102.00 $100.00 Pending 5/6/13 7:05pm MLB Baseball 959 Oakland Athletics -102* <small>vs</small> Cleveland Indians (J Parker - R must Start U Jimenez - R must Start) 178450663-3 5/6/13 3:32pm $151.00 $100.00 Pending 5/6/13 7:10pm MLB Baseball 962 Boston Red Sox -1 -151* <small>vs</small> Minnesota Twins (V Worley - R must Start C Buchholz - R must Start) 178450606-1 5/6/13 3:31pm $50.00 $50.00 Pending 5/6/13 10:15pm Reduced Baseball 957 Philadelphia Phillies/San Francisco Giants Over 6 +100* (C Lee - L must Start M Bumgarner - L must Start) 178450606-2 5/6/13 3:31pm $50.00 $52.50 Pending 5/6/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 961 Minnesota Twins/Boston Red Sox Under 8½ +105* (V Woley - R must Start C Buchholz - R must Start) 178450606-3 5/6/13 3:31pm $50.00 $52.50 Pending 5/6/13 7:10pm Reduced Baseball 963 Toronto Blue Jays/Tampa Bay Rays Over 7½ +105* (M Buehrle - L must Start J Hellickson - R must Start) 178450505-1 5/6/13 3:29pm $105.00 $100.00 Pending 5/7/13 9:35pm Reduced Basketball 711 Memphis Grizzlies/Oklahoma City Thunder Over 186 -105* 178450505-2 5/6/13 3:29pm $108.00 $100.00 Pending 5/6/13 7:05pm Reduced Basketball 704 Miami Heat 1st Half -7 -108* <small>vs</small> Chicago Bulls 178450423-1 5/6/13 3:27pm $135.00 $100.00 Pending 2 Team Teaser (ties push) T tp 7nfl 7½fb & 5½bk Pending 5/6/13 9:35pm NBA Basketball 702 San Antonio Spurs -3½ * <small>vs</small> Golden State Warriors Pending 5/6/13 7:05pm NBA Basketball 704 Miami Heat -6½ * <small>vs</small> Chicago Bulls 178450283-1 5/6/13 3:25pm $125.00 $100.00 Pending 5/6/13 7:05pm Reduced Hockey 9 Boston Bruins -125* <small>vs</small> Toronto Maple Leafs 178450283-2 5/6/13 3:25pm $50.00 $57.00 Pending 5/6/13 8:05pm Reduced Hockey 13 Anaheim Ducks +114* <small>vs</small> Detroit Red Wings
D2DComment -
Good Thread D2D,
I should spend more time here...Comment -
Oh No! I just went to book a bet in the ATP.....hit confirm and I was seconds too late. Had Dimitrov -4.5 and the match at under 20 games (+105). Oh well.....I will keep an eye on it, but I bet that match comes through.Comment -
Thanks LKid, I think we bet a lot of different stuff....I read a lot of your stuff when wading through college hoops (where I did quite well, but still have a TON to learn). Anyway, I hope to see you around often, I know you always have a clear and concise way of looking at the games.
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One of only a couple regular threads worth a read.... great insight into the OP's bets, very honest humble guy, answers just about any question posters ask, not to mention guy is hitting at a fukkin great clip!
I don't tail the guy, but have decided I will be forwarding the max. 2pts/day to him as I respect what he does - seems like a real class-act.Comment -
Hey, thanks for popping in.
A few things for you to chew on (and these can all be very tough):
1. You can never turn things around in a day. If you try and make up for that $400 loss today you will certainly end up $800 in the crapper. So, when asking for help do not expect a miracle.....I have had a 5-18 day that cost me somewhere in the neighborhood if 15% of my Bankroll and the next day I bet exactly the same amounts on all of my bets. It happens to everyone, it is how you react that differentiates you from the next guy.
2. The Knicks were not a good pick last night (lol).
3. Quarter bets are for complete and utter suckers and they hold zero value in the world of sports wagering. I may have a great idea of what team will be more motivated to win any night, or what team matches up better, but only a magician can tell you when that will happen. In the NBA, or to be less specific, basketball, there are bigger swings than in any other sport and anyone that says they can predict that....well, kudos to them, because they are better than I am.
4. If you want my advice, come up with a comfortable unit price for yourself by taking your max bet and dividing it by 5....then tail one of the better people here and do not go outside of what they do. You will begin to see patterns if sports wagering is for you, and you will know that you can do it on your own.
5. Ask questions of knowledgeable bettors....or post your thoughts if they go against that bettor and you will learn a load from their answers.
Ok, off to lunch and I am going to follow Diggity's advice and have a few brews too.
GL tonight everyone.
D2DComment -
Thanks for the quick reply. They have it starting at 5:10 eastern now. Only got it at -5.
Have you checked your sportsbook again?Comment -
D2D I just played Dimitrov, it's back up.Comment -
Yep, it is off the board at Dimes....Dimitrov is a far superior player, but doesn't have a great reputation on clay due to a few losses where he looked a little lazy (one recently to Robredo). They are both 21 and because this is on clay and in Spain Marti is getting a lot more respect than he deserves from the books....the public loves the Spaniards on their own clay. Marti has not beat ANY player inside the top 100 this year....and Dimitrov is currently in the 28 spot.
I will say I loved it at -4.5....but -5 is still an ok bet....Comment -
do NOT uise any direct-from-your-bank-ac-to-book methods...if u already have...STOP...instead open an ac with Skrill and use that as the liason between your bank ac and the books (Skrill can be used for all sorts of non-gambling related stuff as well, such as Skype credit etc...so is ideal cover from BigBrother knowing absolutely everything u do)...
any book worth a shit works with Skrill (Bodog.ca just dropped using it, so I won't be using them anymore)...
use Skrill (and NOT your bank ac's or ccd from now on...it's worth taking a few days off from gaming to get setup with Skrill...
very late in D2D's "first day" thread...or very early in this thread, I made a very long post on how to use Skrill to backstop a multi-book operation...could be helpfulComment -
D2D, first - awesome thread and you seem like a great guy. I've just started betting so I'm in the earliest of all stages as far as learning goes. People like you make me feel confident that I at least have a chance to turn a profit in all this.
Anyway, for the past few weeks I've always bet X units TO RISK, whether it's a -XXX or +XXX. Is there any strategy to playing for X units on -XXX and risking X units on +XXX, or is it just personal preference?
EDIT: Also shouldn't you be getting -120 odds on that teaser? Additionally, I think if you teased 5 points with ties winning you would get -115 odds.Last edited by Conrad99; 05-06-13, 05:19 PM.Comment -
Good question....it is definitely personal preference.
As the majority of my bets are small +'s or -'s I never gave it a great deal of thought. I generally bet more (with the juice) on the -'s and less when I have the +. As long as your bet-sizing is consistent you will be fine....pick one way and stick with it.
You should find out pretty quickly if you have an innate ability.....and if you ever find yourself guessing (and believe me a lot of people do), OR if you are undecided on a game and then you find that when you read an article you find that you are easily swayed, then it will be a rough road for you.
GLComment
Go units, go! (hmmm...actually a better chant is "Come units come")
PS, NO POD for today....