MLB Picks - Duggly, TTO, and Deemer

[mcduggly]

Alright guys, so I was looking at something and wanted to know what everyone thinks of it. Would there be any sort of advantage to selling half a run on whole numbered totals in exchange for an extra 25 or so cents? Like for the Brewers/Cubs game, the total is set at O/U 7 @-115, but you can take the option to go with under 6.5 @+115, which is an extra 30 cents there, and either way, you cash with a score of 6 or less. The only thing you're giving up is that tie if the total is 7, so I guess my question is do you guys see it beneficial to take that risk and lessen the juice on these totals?

[BigDeem5]

I mean it is kind of like taking -1.5 and selling to -1.... I do it if I'm confident, if you think the Under 7 is a safe bet, why not sell the half?

[BigDeem5]

3-2 +2.99 units

Overall 13-16 -5.66 units

Tomorrow :
Cards ml +103 2x
Tigers ml -121 2x
Rays rangers und 9 -105 2x

Adding another unit to Cards ml +106...

Getting Westbrook @ home with + money is a steal in my opinion (3x) total on em

[hockey216]

play me heads up Deem.

[tto827]

+2.69 units yesterday to bring it to a total of -3.26 units
would have been a great day if Halladay had returned to form, I think its bound to happen, he's too smart to not adjust to what he has and find a way to make it work. Gonna have to wait and see on him.

Today
Brewers -103 1u
Brewers -1.5 +160 1u

White Sox +139 2u

Moving on from the shit above............... -7.29 units

Good lucking card today

St Louis Cardinals +114 2u

Brewers -117 1u
Brewers -1.5 +145 1u

Tampa +108 2u

Oakland +112 2u

White Sox +151 2u

[sweep]

On White Soxas well TTo, GL. Masters par 3 tourny on espn at 3pm. FYI guys

[mcduggly]

On White Soxas well TTo, GL. Masters par 3 tourny on espn at 3pm. FYI guys

I've never watched that par 3 tournament before, but I might actually make time for it. Looks interesting.

[tto827]

Skipper across 16 is always great to watch.

Might have to throw some cash down on somebody for that while I'm studying so I can multi-task.

Sox could really use a win here.

[sweep]

Skipper across 16 is always great to watch.

Might have to throw some cash down on somebody for that while I'm studying so I can multi-task.

Sox could really use a win here.

Be wary if betting par 3 at bovada, they hangin lines on guys who not even playing: Check this out:

<!-- title / author block -->Lkids Maters Contest participants: Check-in

sweep

[tto827]

Be wary if betting par 3 at bovada, they hangin lines on guys who not even playing: Check this out:

<!-- title / author block -->Lkids Maters Contest participants: Check-in

sweep

Saw that post thanks Sweep

[sweep]

Saw that post thanks Sweep

obv was suppose to say "Masters" and not "Maters"

[BigDeem5]

Stl great start! Up over 3units to start day!

[tto827]

Stl great start! Up over 3units to start day!

I wanted to take them at -9.5 but just took ML instead

[EXhoosier10]

Alright guys, so I was looking at something and wanted to know what everyone thinks of it. Would there be any sort of advantage to selling half a run on whole numbered totals in exchange for an extra 25 or so cents? Like for the Brewers/Cubs game, the total is set at O/U 7 @-115, but you can take the option to go with under 6.5 @+115, which is an extra 30 cents there, and either way, you cash with a score of 6 or less. The only thing you're giving up is that tie if the total is 7, so I guess my question is do you guys see it beneficial to take that risk and lessen the juice on these totals?

I'd be more confident selling from 7.5 to 7, but if you feel really confident in only 3 or 4 runs being scored and the total 7, why not bet it? if you're not super confident but still think the total will go under 7, don't buy down. You should be able to make a little extra money buying if you are selective with it

[tto827]

Alright guys, so I was looking at something and wanted to know what everyone thinks of it. Would there be any sort of advantage to selling half a run on whole numbered totals in exchange for an extra 25 or so cents? Like for the Brewers/Cubs game, the total is set at O/U 7 @-115, but you can take the option to go with under 6.5 @+115, which is an extra 30 cents there, and either way, you cash with a score of 6 or less. The only thing you're giving up is that tie if the total is 7, so I guess my question is do you guys see it beneficial to take that risk and lessen the juice on these totals?

Sorry Duggly meant to address this earlier.

You'd have to find push rates for MLB totals (that may be hard to do and require some personal data collection on your part). SBR's Half point calc might help a little, but it won't be accurate enough.

Usually you cannot sell points for enough $$ for it to be worth it, but there are some times. And with your example, 3-3 games heading to extra innings are fairly common, which would fukk you hard.

[BigDeem5]

Detroit up 6-1... now down 8-6..

Fuk their bullpen.. They better get the bats going again.

Cash our under in the Rays game

[mcduggly]

Detroit up 6-1... now down 8-6..

Fuk their bullpen.. They better get the bats going again.

Cash our under in the Rays game

I've made some good money just from betting the Rays and Rangers under this year so far. I think both offenses are overrated right now.

[BigDeem5]

I'm 2-0 +5.12 units... but Detroit is going to bone me unless Cabby or Prince bails me out

[pulledclear]

Hey Reemer, tell Macdummy to stop trolling the grown ups. Thanks!

Vegas odds Macdummys IQ

104 Under -120
Over EV

[BigDeem5]

2-1 +2.7 units today

Overall 15-17 -2.96 units

[tto827]

Moving on from the shit above............... -7.29 units

Good lucking card today

St Louis Cardinals +114 2u

Brewers -117 1u
Brewers -1.5 +145 1u

Tampa +108 2u

Oakland +112 2u

White Sox +151 2u

+2.44 units today with oakland looking very good, too bad there was rain in Chicago so Milwaukee couldn't beat them down.

[mcduggly]

Yesterday's Results:

Minnesota Twins @+133
Rays/Rangers under 9 @-105

-.05 units today


Updated Record:

24-19 (+6.34 Units)


Today's Plays:

Detroit Tigers @-127
Texas Rangers @+139 (2x)
White Sox/Nationals over 8 @-105

[BennyBigNuts]

Yesterday's Results:

Minnesota Twins @+133
Rays/Rangers under 9 @-105

-.05 units today


Updated Record:

24-19 (+6.34 Units)


Today's Plays:

Detroit Tigers @-127
Texas Rangers @+139 (2x)
White Sox/Nationals over 8 @-105

I'm on Tigers today but first 5 innings. Cant stand to watch that bullpen another game. So bad.

[tto827]

-2.61 total

Giants -142 1u
Giants -1.5 +115 1u

White Sox +137 2u

Next few days are about golf

[mcduggly]

I'm on Tigers today but first 5 innings. Cant stand to watch that bullpen another game. So bad.

Looking good so far. I have never bet any first 5 inning bets in the few years that I have bet MLB games. I'm assuming the basic strategy for them is to place those for teams with bad bullpens or who have an all-star ace like Cain or Strasburg?

[BigDeem5]

Yeah, bad bullpens and stud starter.

[All Business]

Mcdugg any particular reason you're taking the Rangers over the Mariners with Felix starting?

[BigDeem5]

2-1 +2.7 units today

Overall 15-17 -2.96 units

Indians ml (2x) -105

only play today

[You mad bro]

keep it goin .. pretty soon money will be rakin in

[mcduggly]

Mcdugg any particular reason you're taking the Rangers over the Mariners with Felix starting?

King Felix struggled against the White Sox and only had 3 striekouts against them. Rangers offense > White Sox offense. His fastball was noticeably slower than what it has been in the past, which was also concerning. He also has an ERA of over 4 against the Rangers (I know hey don't have the same lineup but they are still dangerous). All of that, combined with the fact that their offense isn't great aside from Michael Morse (Saunders isn't in the lineup tonight, either), I saw a lot of value at that +139 line. If the line was lower, it's a totally different story.

[mcduggly]

keep it goin .. pretty soon money will be rakin in

I'm hoping so. I usually start off slow to start the season, just like any other sport.

[pulledclear]

[mcduggly]

Yesterday's Results:

Detroit Tigers @-127
Texas Rangers @+139 (2x)
White Sox/Nationals over 8 @-105

+4.52 units today


Updated Record:

27-19 (+10.86 Units)


Today's Plays:

Cincinnati Reds @+100
Philadelphia Phillies @-119
Toronto Blue Jays @-101
Detroit Tigers @-111
Rangers/Mariners over 6.5 @-115

[Smoke]

Mcdugger red hot

[mcduggly]

Mcdugger red hot

Thank Jesus you changed your avatar. Much easier to look at.