MNF

[pico]

tampa ml +165

i might get screwed with a fg. oh well.

[LT Profits]

I only played Panthers -2 1st Half

[riggs]

Re-thinking Tonight's Game

The more I look into it, I think this is either a no play or a small play on Carolina-3. My early lean was Tampa, case in point:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3, I really like this game. I have already expressed my opinion of Garcia, I honestly believe he's a top QB in the league and by far the most underrated QB in the NFL. TB with Garcia is more than a formidable team. Last week's game vs. NO wasn't nearly as close as the score would have you believe. TB physically dominated NO on both sides of the ball and held Drew Brees in check, for the most part. Carolina won a big game in GB, YES THEY DID, but how many times has Carolina beat a team on the road in dramatic fashion only to come home and lose the next week??? Sometimes to crap teams too!!! Carolina is the most inconsistent team in the NFL from week to week. I absolutely love the Bucs in this spot.

WARNING: TB has several injuries on the Defensive Line, 2 starters are questionable and 1 is out indefinitely. I'm waiting on this one to pull the trigger either way! I might make a small play on the over AND NOW LEANING THE OTHER WAY IN FAVOR OF CAROLINA! If Tampa is short-handed by 3 on defense (especially the D-Line) there's no reason to bet them in this spot. Add to that, Carolina is home (6-0 on the year) and this game is much more important for them.

[pico]

good info riggs.

[Shark79]

Anybody looking at the OVER on this one?

[fiveteamer]

Tampa is a different team at home.
They can be had on the road, Carolina is playing pretty well. I would def. buy the half point, though.

[bypp]

Tampa kicked the crap out of Carolina in week six, 27-3. Now, it was at home for the Bucs, but still. Delhomme turns over the ball constantly, and both teams are going to be fired up to take the lead in the NFC South. Right now I'm leaning Bucs, but I'm gonna keep doin some research on it. It'll probably be a small play no matter what because it's just hard to predict what Panthers team is going to show up.

[pico]

how many points is this home field advantage. i think it is more than 3 pts

[fiveteamer]

If you like Tampa, I'm pretty sure the line will go to 3.5 before kick off.

[MrMonkey]

Thanks for the update!

The more I look into it, I think this is either a no play or a small play on Carolina-3. My early lean was Tampa, case in point:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3, I really like this game. I have already expressed my opinion of Garcia, I honestly believe he's a top QB in the league and by far the most underrated QB in the NFL. TB with Garcia is more than a formidable team. Last week's game vs. NO wasn't nearly as close as the score would have you believe. TB physically dominated NO on both sides of the ball and held Drew Brees in check, for the most part. Carolina won a big game in GB, YES THEY DID, but how many times has Carolina beat a team on the road in dramatic fashion only to come home and lose the next week??? Sometimes to crap teams too!!! Carolina is the most inconsistent team in the NFL from week to week. I absolutely love the Bucs in this spot.

WARNING: TB has several injuries on the Defensive Line, 2 starters are questionable and 1 is out indefinitely. I'm waiting on this one to pull the trigger either way! I might make a small play on the over AND NOW LEANING THE OTHER WAY IN FAVOR OF CAROLINA! If Tampa is short-handed by 3 on defense (especially the D-Line) there's no reason to bet them in this spot. Add to that, Carolina is home (6-0 on the year) and this game is much more important for them.

Riggs, appreciate you coming back with this. Really liked Carolina all week but yours was a good writeup to possibly stay away or go small. When you put out a play that early for MNF, things can change so much, especially sometimes with outcomes from Sunday. Thanks.

MrMonkey

[fiveteamer]

riggs, are you a Tampa Bay fanboy???

[MrMonkey]

If you like Tampa, I'm pretty sure the line will go to 3.5 before kick off.

Fiveteamer, so you really believe it will go to 3.5? No way can do Carolina at that, better do it now then, just not liking the 1-1.25? Push won't hurt me.

MrMonkey

[fiveteamer]

Well it's already 3.5 at Matchbook and it's -3 -120 at pinny, pretty sure the line will move.

[LT Profits]

FYI:

Collectively, NFC South teams are an unbelievable 23-2 straight up in all home games this season, going a wallet filling 18-6-1, 75.0 percent against the spread. Furthermore, in divisional games, NFC South home teams are a perfect 9-0 straight up and 8-1 ATS, winning those critical home battles by an average of +13.3 points.

Carolina fits the mold, as they are 6-0 at home with an AMOV of +14.7 points per game.

[fiveteamer]

Thanks LT. Good info.

[pico]

i think that is why tampa is +165.

if they're at a neutral field, tampa should be around -130

[LT Profits]

Not knocking your play pico, reason I only played Carolina first half is that I expect them to get off to good start at home, but Tampa Bay defense is awesome and I think they will make the proper adjustments at halftime.

[pico]

+165 is like 37.74% chance of winning.

i think that is about the right odds for tampa today.

[pico]

accuscore has tampa 29% chance of winning.

[Salcas]

WagerType: TeaserDate:Team:
Dec 08NFL [163]BUCCANEERS (TB) +13EV (B+10)
Dec 08NFL [163] TOTAL o29-110 (B+10) (BUCCANEERS (TB) vrs PANTHERS (CAR))
Dec 08NBA [703] WARRIORS (GST) +10½-110 (B+7)

[fiveteamer]

That makes sense LT.

Going to take them 1st half. -2.5

[Bake]

I'm going TB +10, o31 on a 7 point tease (-130). TB keeps it close here and I don't think the o31 should have any problem covering. Yes, I am getting juiced at 20% but I didn't like either line by itself. Let's go Bucs

[Sforz]

Panther -3 (-120)

[riggs]

riggs, are you a Tampa Bay fanboy???

Haha, not at all. At the moment I have no team in any professional sport, the only teams I like are the one's who win me money from week to week. Following teams with your heart is reserved for little kids and perpetual teenagers! I think I stopped following teams when I was about 18-20, somewhere in that age range.

I like teams with good coaching, strong line play, good defense, and a QB who knows how to manage games. TB has all 4 components, BUT, with injuries on the D-Line against a team who loves to run the ball and make big plays down the field off play action = disaster!

[whatdafuxup]

Anybody looking at the OVER on this one?

I was thinking about taking the over, but everyone being on the under is making me nervous.

[fiveteamer]

I was thinking about taking the over, but everyone being on the under is making me nervous.

That should make you un-nervous.

[jjgold]

Teaser is way to go on this game either side if your doing a 10 pointer with hoops

[Brock Landers]

this division is Totally hometeam dominant, as LT stated earlier, eye poping stats home vs road.

[AC1318]

TB will not cover the 10 either

[jjgold]

Carolina -2.5 1st half

God Bless

[pokernut9999]

how many points is this home field advantage. i think it is more than 3 pts

Home teams are 23-2 in the division this year.

[MoneySportsGuy]

I like Tampa Bay to win this

[losturmarbles]

i live in NC and normally see every carolina game. carolina is NOT a good football team, they are WAY overrated right now. and they will get exposed.

carolina is 2-3 ats in their last 5, 0-2 ats in their last 2 at home.

since their bye,
they played terrible @ oak and only won because oak was even more terrible than they were
came close to losing to det at home
got their butt kicked @atl
and got lucky @gb

tb's defense is going to be the difference here. carolina's losses this year are against teams with above average defenses. WHO has carolina beat? all their wins have come against below average defenses.

the only thing that gives me pause is to what extent the injured defensive players that are out for tb will have on the game.

if it wasnt for that, tb+3.5 is gold. i still might play it small.

[losturmarbles]

also the nfc south home record trend is due to break

and carolina WILL miss the playoffs, just watch.

[boys/heels fan]

I am a N.C. native as well and not a Panthers fan but I like Carolina -3 (local) for 1 unit. Jake will throw for at least 250 yards and the current at home streak along with the defensive injuries for TB make this a small play.