El Niño's NHL Thread

[El Nino]

El Nino---You have been POTM every month!!
You handle yourself with dignity and respect the opinions
of others...Unlike those who may have won.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Lookin' at Ott.....
I know...I know...

Thanks, pal. I still can't figure Ottawa out. I had an early lean on the under 5 (+125) but it probably lands on the number. If it was in Ottawa, I would say there is probably value. Tough road game for the Sens though.

[El Nino]

3/13

Calgary Flames (-110)

YTD
55-44-1 +22.29u

Short card, not in love with any of the plays. Just an action play here. Rolling with the home team in this match-up again. Howard is out with the flu, Gustavsson in net for the Red Wings. Flames average more goals/game, have the better power play%, and take less penalties/game.

[El Nino]

Kip stands on his head and the Flames net 5 goals on only 22 shots. 1-0 +0.91u

YTD
56-44-1 +23.20u

[fitguy67]

the smooth (...well, as smooth as can be expected in this game) sailing continues

[TheMoneyShot]

El Nino Keep it going!

[El Nino]

3/14

Pittsburgh Penguins Regulation (+120) 3u
Pittsburgh Penguins -1.5 (+210)

YTD
56-44-1 +23.20u

[El Nino]

Adding: St. Louis Blues (-140) 2u

[tto827]

Don't know if its worthy of a play in a true thread dedicated to hockey, but my Blackhawks are NOT losing a third game in a row.

[loodachris99]

What time did pitt game start? I checked thread at 657 to tail 7 pm games n nothing posted... Then checked again to look for 730-8 games at about 7:20 n saw ur post at 7:07 but the game had already started... Assuming maybe it was a 7:10 start?? Oh well gl nonetheless and I'm wit ya on the blues as well!!

[Russian Rocket]

What time did pitt game start? I checked thread at 657 to tail 7 pm games n nothing posted... Then checked again to look for 730-8 games at about 7:20 n saw ur post at 7:07 but the game had already started... Assuming maybe it was a 7:10 start?? Oh well gl nonetheless and I'm wit ya on the blues as well!!

dude...jesus fukkin christ ....what planet are you on?

[loodachris99]

dude...jesus fukkin christ ....what planet are you on?

Ummm...sorry....???

[El Nino]

Posted very late, stupid daylight savings. BookMaker had the Pitt game listed at 4:15, posted at 4:07 my time. Usually, they let you bet until the puck drops.

[Russian Rocket]

Posted very late, stupid daylight savings. BookMaker had the Pitt game listed at 4:15, posted at 4:07 my time. Usually, they let you bet until the puck drops.

Get that money Nino!

[El Nino]

Don't know if its worthy of a play in a true thread dedicated to hockey, but my Blackhawks are NOT losing a third game in a row.

I took a quick look, but as weird as it sounds, I'm not betting against Columbus. The value was on them. Blackhawks should win, but not a lot of people thought the Blue Jackets would win 5 in a row either. Scrappy team that's always within a goal.

[El Nino]

the smooth (...well, as smooth as can be expected in this game) sailing continues

El Nino Keep it going!

[El Nino]

Dupuis!

[El Nino]

hahahahahaha unreal

[El Nino]

I will never complain about a bad beat again. Most improbable PL cover ever!

[fitguy67]

you know we bitch at the GGods when improbable shit detrimental to our bet happens...but we fail to express our gratitude to them when equally-improbable parcels are delivered in the knick of time--this is the third time in the last handful of days that our puckline tickets were rescued from the garbage...and credited nicely to Nino's unit count.

Thank you GGods for what happened in Toronto!

[El Nino]

you know we bitch at the GGods when improbable shit detrimental to our bet happens...but we fail to express our gratitude to them when equally-improbable parcels are delivered in the knick of time--this is the third time in the last handful of days that our puckline tickets were rescued from the garbage...and credited nicely to Nino's unit count.

Thank you GGods for what happened in Toronto!

Not sure if you saw it, but the Leafs got a Power Play 6-4 faceoff in Pitt's end 22 seconds left. Scrum play in front, Craig Adams chips it out and scoots all the way down the ice and in. Leafs fans go home.

[El Nino]

3-0 +7.13u

YTD
59-44-1 +30.33u

[DiggityDaggityDo]

Solid work you have going here, nino.

[DennisGreen]

Unreal wins on the Pens, congrats

Was looking like a 1-0 Leafs final for the longest time Pens exploded.

[El Nino]

Solid work you have going here, nino.

Thanks, Triple D.

Unreal wins on the Pens, congrats

Was looking like a 1-0 Leafs final for the longest time Pens exploded.

Yep, back to back 3rd period comebacks for the Pens. Pretty sick turn of events.

[El Nino]

3/15

Calgary Flames Regulation (+125)

YTD
59-44-1 +30.33u

[DiggityDaggityDo]

3/15

Calgary Flames Regulation (+125)

YTD
59-44-1 +30.33u

El Nino,

Which book are you using?

5Dimes has Calgary -145 (1st 60 minutes)

[El Nino]

El Nino,

Which book are you using?

5Dimes has Calgary -145 (1st 60 minutes)

BookMaker has Calgary -140, +125 Regulation. If it goes to OT, the regulation bet loses.

[altieriflyers]

Best of luck tonight El Nino, keep it up!

[El Nino]

Best of luck tonight El Nino, keep it up!

Thanks, pal.

[DiggityDaggityDo]

BookMaker has Calgary -140, +125 Regulation. If it goes to OT, the regulation bet loses.

Ah OK. I wasnt sure how that worked.

Good luck.

[Dollars2Donuts]

3-0 +7.13u

YTD
59-44-1 +30.33u

Great day Nino! We ended up on the same games....I even had the Pens PL.......it made up (mostly) for my NCAA work.

Continued success!

[Dollars2Donuts]

Great day Nino! We ended up on the same games....I even had the Pens PL.......it made up (mostly) for my NCAA work.

Continued success!

Oops...looks like we got on the opposite side tonight....all the best anyway!

[El Nino]

Oops...looks like we got on the opposite side tonight....all the best anyway!

Never go against the family, Donuts

[fitguy67]

now up to 31.33 units (with complete 1-3 unit discipline throughout...if brock doesn't claim 'em...make sure to burn those damn rubber-bands, lol)...well done!

now let's talk best MMA play for tomorrow...
______________
best value on the card i could find (locked in yesterday but lines haven't moved much since, i don't think)
Condit by Dec +220..........0.45x to win x
Hendricks by KO +290.......0.35x to win x

altogether risking just 0.8x,
worst case you lose the 0.8x , but obvious "paths to victory" analysis suggests there's a very substantial likelihood of one hitting...
yeilding either 0.65x if Condit wins (a -125ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)
or yielding 0.55x if Hendricks wins (a -145ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)

Considered as a whole, it's like a "double-chance" bet in soccer..with a payout in the -135ish area...meaning this play has value if the true probability of it hitting (ie. one of the 2 events occurring) is at least 57.5%...

I think the probability of either a Condit decision or a Hendricks KO is well over that thresh-hold.
_________

"I showed you mine"...now it's your turn, pal... what u got cookin', MMA-wise?

[El Nino]

now up to 31.33 units (with complete 1-3 unit discipline throughout...if brock doesn't claim 'em...make sure to burn those damn rubber-bands, lol)...well done!

now let's talk best MMA play for tomorrow...
______________
best value on the card i could find (locked in yesterday but lines haven't moved much since, i don't think)
Condit by Dec +220..........0.45x to win x
Hendricks by KO +290.......0.35x to win x

altogether risking just 0.8x,
worst case you lose the 0.8x , but obvious "paths to victory" analysis suggests there's a very substantial likelihood of one hitting...
yeilding either 0.65x if Condit wins (a -125ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)
or yielding 0.55x if Hendricks wins (a -145ish payout rate on the 0.8x risked)

Considered as a whole, it's like a "double-chance" bet in soccer a...with a payout in the -135ish area...meaning this play has value if the true probability of it hitting (ie. one of the 2 events occurring) is at least 57.5%...

I think the probability of either a Condit decision or a Hendricks KO is well over that thresh-hold.
_________

"I showed you mine"...now it's your turn, pal... what u got cookin', MMA-wise?

Well it's actually +31.58u since it was a 1u wager to win 1.25u Condit is my fav bet on the card, although I believe he can finish Hendricks as well. Hendricks by KO/TKO would be the obv. Hedge. GSP by decision is an auto bet along with fight goes the distance. Hedge would be Diaz ITD. Haven't browsed the lines a whole lot yet. Best of luck!