any more picks for tonight Nino?
I had faith in the third the whole way knowing there was 0 chance the hawks get shutout!! cash it!!
I had faith in the third the whole way knowing there was 0 chance the hawks get shutout!! cash it!!
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MMA is a different animal. The lines fluctuate so much that you rarely have pick 'em fights. When JDS fought Cain for the rematch I believe JDS opened around -150ish and was -200ish by fight time. For MMA betting, -175 isn't too terrible. Although the props for Struve ITD and by sub were how I would have went. I liked everything Struve did on the ground except that sloppy arm bar attempt toward the end of the 2nd round. I gave Struve the 1st round and the 2nd round was close, but I gave it to Struve as well, I could see if they scored it for Hunt though. Struve was basically a standing punching bag for the 3rd round. He did not use his length at all. I think he threw 2 or 3 leg kicks and one was late in the fight when he was already gassed out. Effective leg kicks and going upstairs would have kept Hunt at bay. Hunt walked into effective striking range and teed off with some nasty shots whenever he wanted. Broke Struve's jaw.Originally posted by fitguy67Nino, I wasn't bitching at all...I was in on Struve all by myself...my point was to win a unit u have to risk so much more on the big favorites than you do on the small-faves and dogs. Watching that manlet pummel-video the other day activated my spidey-sense that Hunt could screw up my night. The hedge
turned on for the first tym...and it worked out as a "pleasant lesson", turning the surprise loss/disaster into a surprise-loss/push.
So from now on it's mostly dogs and small-faves for me. When the occasional big-fave bet has legitiamate value (Texeira over Page, and Macida over Hendo, and Struve last night all come to mind)...fly with 'em...but pay the relatively-inexpensive "upset insurance" tax to prevent losing an inordinate amount of capital.
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BTW, post-regulation crapped on Montreal & Anaheim games which were obviously capped well enough...keep doin' what your doin' bro...cuz ur havin' a great season.
I hear what you're saying about picking up value on fighters who have a puncher's chance, I would be careful with that strategy though. My personal favorite strategy is betting the grinders against impressive, yet untested or overrated strikers. The market/public overvalue a fighter coming off a KO victory against a fighter whose only chance of winning is grinding out a decision. See Stephen Thompson vs. Matt Brown. That faggy Canadian on TUF against Colton Smith. Silva vs. Fitch. Even Lombard vs. Okami on this last card.Comment -
3/3
Adding: Vancouver Canucks (-125)Comment -
Anything food for thought for tonight? After a 1-5 day I need some help!Comment -
lol D2D did you click on the wrong thread? Regardless still happy to see your picks, even if they are on Nino's thread lolComment -
3/4
New Jersey Devils +100
Grand Salami OVER 21.5 Goals (-115)
YTD
44-35-1 +17.27uComment -
Like it...and I'm coming to see why HRElement claims that NHL & MLB are all you really need to get thru a year of sport-betting...ML-bets (not spreads like Baskets/Football or complicated 3-way considerations in Soccer)...just who'll win the damn game...
Better because motivation is much more of a "given" (=much less of a variable)...u can count on teams to try to win...harder to count on their dedication to beating another team by "enough" or coming close "enough" in defeat...u play--first and foremost-- to win
so go Devils!Comment -
3/5
Tampa Bay Lightning +105 2u
Winnipeg Jets(-110)
Minnesota Wild +160
YTD
45-36-1 +17.14uComment -
Originally posted by El Nino
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Originally posted by El Nino
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Wild should not be +160 imo either.Comment -
you're right BigDaaaay...they should be close to +220Originally posted by BIGDAY
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Know fuuck all about NHL bud but I've been informed that Winnipeg is indeed the play tonight! Is this info true:
Florida are without key players goalie Theodore (15 games), Kulikov (20 games) and Weaver (19 games), also Versteeg (7 games), Jovanovski (5 games) and Caruso (2 games), while Upshall (8 games) is also expected to miss out. ????Comment -
that don't matter though in NHL...Ottawa is a good example...they've been running hot for weeks without 40% of their core stuffOriginally posted by VaughanyComment -
Originally posted by Russian Rocket
Ottawa has lost their last 3 games......the injuries tend to come through in the end, even if teams can get past them for a week or two.
I am shocked that Minnesesota is only +160. My dad taught me years ago not to ever bet against a streak.....
LOVE the TB pick there, but I got them at +112. I have noticed a big difference between your payouts and mine....what site do you use Nino? 7 points on a nightly basis can be a MONSTER swing....are you shopping your lines?Comment -
check their record before these 3 game strike ...Comment -
Originally posted by Russian Rocketyou're right BigDaaaay...they should be close to +220
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See Post #1. 1 book, doesn't give the best lines for NHL and MLB.Originally posted by Dollars2DonutsComment -
Yeah, Vaughany I believe Florida has been dealing with injuries all season. They are playing terribly this season. 3-5-4 at home (3-9 for gambling purposes) and they have a whopping -27 goal differential. The next worst in the league is Columbus at -17. Jets are the play all day, pal.Originally posted by VaughanyComment -
nino hawks are going to win manComment -
How'd that work the last time they met?Originally posted by ChicagoBlackhawk
Or last season?
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4-1 after the 1st periodComment -
Originally posted by El NinoHow'd that work the last time they met?
Or last season?
Nino I had faith in you this past month, but after burning this money, you sir are off the follow list lol. sorry man that comment was just incredible. How does one of the Hawks first games (before they even went on much of a run might I add) losing to Minn have anything to do with tonight after winning so much. Dumb Dumb Dumb
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Originally posted by ChicagoBlackhawkNino I had faith in you this past month, but after burning this money, you sir are off the follow list lol. sorry man that comment was just incredible. How does one of the Hawks first games (before they even went on much of a run might I add) losing to Minn have anything to do with tonight after winning so much. Dumb Dumb Dumb Nino is good peoples pal!
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Looks like we are buried as Jets down 4-1 in 3rd period. Took them in last man standing contest.Originally posted by El NinoComment -
D2D...Residents of the USA are at a big disadvantage to most of the rest of the world when it comes to sports betting. A lot of the better cappers here, like Nino, have to live with this reality, yet still manage to do quite well even without access to the best prices. If you are one of the lucky ones and you find it's easy to always beat the quoted line...quietly enjoy this benefit...but it's not a good idea (it's not good etiquette) to rub your better prices in the OP's face...be grateful for the pick at the quoted price...and the fact that you can usually beat it..but don't remind the capper of the painful fact that they've got a bigger vig-burden than lots of their tailgaters.Originally posted by Dollars2Donuts
If Nino had Matchy and Pinny he'd own the Wild
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Nino, couldn't you switch your NHL and MLB betting to 5dimes...their prices are almost identical to Pinny's...but Bookmaker/DSI and Heritage are a good-deal crappier than that.... If I was US-res, I'd be 5dimes primarily for 80%-plus of my plays...with one of youwager/heritage/bm as secondary...and one of intertops/bovada for occasional square-priced bargain-outs...
It's always amazed me how well your doing with your NHL, having to rely on BM prices...5dimes are wayyyyy better for MLB/NHL than BM...(and are a must-have for MMA-weenies as well, as you know)Comment -
great day for u nino. lol. lets get outta the redComment -
Good bet-sizing there dude...we hit the double-bagger to compensate for most of the damage from the 2 singletons that didn't hit.
Just lyk in poker...it isn't just how much you win when you win...
it's also how little you lose when you lose
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Did you seriously just say that a prior matchup between the Wild and Blackhawks had no bearing on capping this game?Originally posted by ChicagoBlackhawkNino I had faith in you this past month, but after burning this money, you sir are off the follow list lol. sorry man that comment was just incredible. How does one of the Hawks first games (before they even went on much of a run might I add) losing to Minn have anything to do with tonight after winning so much. Dumb Dumb Dumb
Wild were 2-1-1 against the Hawks last seaon. 1-0 this season to date. 4 out of those 5 games went to a shootout. This is about finding VALUE, pal. You will NEVER get value betting on a hyped team on a winning streak. I was on the wrong side of the last Blackhawks bet in Detroit. The Books and the public will continue to over value the Blackhawks. If you want to tail -180 favs you can PM Brock Landers or Philly Flyers.
P.S. when a line opens at -195 and drops 30 cents with over 70% of the public on the Blackhawks, you might want to do one of these
P.P.S. Never fukkin' heard of yaComment -
you can do one of these all you want. I've been rolling in cash every game on the hawks lol. -195 or not
and all I said was you basing this game on how the Wild won in a S/O against the hawks early in the season on fluke alone was not very good reasoning. your trying to look cool winning a bet against the hawks.
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Thanks, Fitter. This card was all about value town. I was obv. most confident in the Lightning (2u) and thought I'd pick up 1 out of the other 2 plays. Jets dropped their pants and Wild fought back to make it a game halfway through the 3rd.Originally posted by fitguy67Good bet-sizing there dude...we hit the double-bagger to compensate for most of the damage from the 2 singletons that didn't hit.
Just lyk in poker...it isn't just how much you win when you win...
it's also how little you lose when you loseComment -
Congrats. Link me to your thread with your daily picks, please. I would love to see how this strategy works out for you long term.Originally posted by ChicagoBlackhawkyou can do one of these all you want. I've been rolling in cash every game on the hawks lol. -195 or not
and all I said was you basing this game on how the Wild won in a S/O against the hawks early in the season on fluke alone was not very good reasoning. your trying to look cool winning a bet against the hawks.
BOL on your wagers.Comment -
Great grinding on the ice ...
solid approach and a fun thread.
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Originally posted by 19th HoleGreat grinding on the ice ...
solid approach and a fun thread.
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Originally posted by fitguy67D2D...Residents of the USA are at a big disadvantage to most of the rest of the world when it comes to sports betting. A lot of the better cappers here, like Nino, have to live with this reality, yet still manage to do quite well even without access to the best prices. If you are one of the lucky ones and you find it's easy to always beat the quoted line...quietly enjoy this benefit...but it's not a good idea (it's not good etiquette) to rub your better prices in the OP's face...be grateful for the pick at the quoted price...and the fact that you can usually beat it..but don't remind the capper of the painful fact that they've got a bigger vig-burden than lots of their tailgaters.
If Nino had Matchy and Pinny he'd own the Wild
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Nino, couldn't you switch your NHL and MLB betting to 5dimes...their prices are almost identical to Pinny's...but Bookmaker/DSI and Heritage are a good-deal crappier than that.... If I was US-res, I'd be 5dimes primarily for 80%-plus of my plays...with one of youwager/heritage/bm as secondary...and one of intertops/bovada for occasional square-priced bargain-outs...
It's always amazed me how well your doing with your NHL, having to rely on BM prices...5dimes are wayyyyy better for MLB/NHL than BM...(and are a must-have for MMA-weenies as well, as you know)
I am sorry, but 'rub it in his face' has NOTHING to do with anything I was trying to accomplish. If you read my thread you will understand that I am reasonably new to online capping. I have NO idea what challenges others go through.....I was actually just trying to help him.
I could have PM'd him I am sure.....but I am a regular reader of Nino and he has helped me out in the past....it was an honest question, and I was only wondering why he was't using a service like 5dimes......I have noticed many times that his lines seem a little off....and he has options!
BOLComment
