Will Roger Federer win the next major? What are the odds in your mind?
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I think -500.Comment -
-125Comment -
+250
Andy Murray won on merit yesterday, nothing fluky about it.Comment -
No and I will bet u on that CrazylComment -
In my mind he's +250. Probably still too shaky by Australian, especially wirh rust. Could lose to anyone. Admittedly Nadal is not as much of a threat, but who knows. Sadly, he'll probably be worse next year than this year.
But line will probably be -125 with books recognizing everyone will want to bet him.
-500 is crazy. I imagine you'll be pounding the line when it comes out ~ -125?Comment -
02:00 AM1001 R. Federer+215 1002 R. Nadal+420 1003 N. Djokovic+539 1004 A. Murray+474 1005 J. W. Tsonga+1702 1006 A. Roddick+3468Comment -
Line on fed will probably drop as tourney opensComment -
Fed will def. be +$ (maybe +150-250) for the Aussie.Comment -
Fed is washed up. He should give that US open trophy to Murray since he beat the true champ.
I can see him losing in the earlier rounds. Prob quarters.Comment -
It was an exaggeration but to prove a point.Originally posted by mathdotcomComment -
+245 BetFairComment -
As long as he's healthy and motivated, Roger is always one of the favorites to win any tourney he enters. I think with Nadal on the sidelines, Roger can regain his #1 ranking. I think he's very motivated to break Sampras' record of 14 Slams.Comment -
I already think Roger is winning the next French Open. Nadal ran hot for a while, but is no different than positive variance.Originally posted by Tchocky
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Federer winning next french open?
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Giants winning the Super Bowl?Originally posted by mathdotcomFederer winning next french open?
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Bet365 has Nadal to win it outright at -250. That's one of the most ridiculous odds I've seen.Originally posted by CrazyLI already think Roger is winning the next French Open. Nadal ran hot for a while, but is no different than positive variance.
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Similar to bookies overpricing the Yankees and Patriots of last year all the time. They know the squares will bet blind.Originally posted by meganieBet365 has Nadal to win it outright at -250. That's one of the most ridiculous odds I've seen.Comment -
crazy the vip mod,do you know anything else about life other then tennis and contests and food differences between ny and texas.Comment -
I`ll be amazed if Federer wins any of the slams next year,there are too many good players now.Comment -
Dont talk about the Patriots Loco L ....Originally posted by CrazyL
I havent seen if theres any odds posted but I do see this hitting within the -200 -250.
Regardless of what his condition or mental game is on .... all squares know 2 or 3 names in tennis (NADAL - FED and RODDICK) therefore the books can easily win here.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a -300 on himComment -
I wasn't even talking about plain overpricing.Originally posted by CrazyL
That's last year's odds:
Rafael Nadal Roger Federer 6-1 6-3 6-0 -333
Rafael Nadal Novak Djokovic 6-4 6-2 7-6(3) -455
Rafael Nadal Nicolas Almagro 6-1 6-1 6-1 -1667
Rafael Nadal Fernando Verdasco 6-1 6-0 6-2 -3333
Rafael Nadal Jarkko Nieminen 6-1 6-3 6-1 -10000
Rafael Nadal Nicolas Devilder 6-4 6-0 6-1 -10000
Rafael Nadal Thomaz Bellucci 7-5 6-3 6-1 -10000
So I could have gotten -128 just by backing him every round. And that was when he didn't lose more than 10 games every match till the semi final. Now you can't expect him to do that every year, so likely his odds could go up at least 2-3c against top 5 players. At the same time his odds will be worse than last year, because he's the No. 1. And if you sum that up you could get about the odds of at least -170 or so. That's why -250 is just ridiculous. Not to start with the overpricing simply by name you were mentioning.
To go back on topic:
My book seems to overrate Nadal's chances (+250) on hard and slightly underrate Federer's chances (+175). I think +150 or so seems to me about right.Comment -
I'd put Fed at +250 to win the Aussie.Comment -
Even when Fed was in his prime he couldn't touch Nadal. Now Nadal is even better, and Federer is much worse, yet this is the year you think he takes the French?
This can only happen if you think Nadal won't be anywhere as good as he was last year, and that Fed will be a lot better rather than a lot worse. Did Nadal even drop a set in the French last year?
Unless you're saying Fed might be a good bet at +600 or something, then alright, but certainly he is not more likely to win than Nadal. I like you crazyl, but your tennis caping is sometimes really baffling. Still can't forgive you for laying -700 on Ivanovic.Comment -
The next major is the Aussie Open, not the French.Comment -
The Oracle that is Pinnies says:
Le Fed +215
Muscles from Mallorca +425 (ridiculous overrating, he has no chance)
Muzza +476
Faker +525
General Jo +1700
Delpo +3000
Allserveandnothingelse +3500
Fat Dave +3500
Fixer +3600
Superman +6500
That Latvian Bloke that Nobody knows Well enough to give a good nickname +7400
Reeeeee-char +7500
Forehando +7500
The Baghdaddy +9300
WalkslikeaDuck +9700
RidiculouslyTall&UngainlyCroatNo1 (no, not Ivo) +10400
RidiculouslyTall&UngainlyCroatNo2 (no, not Ivo either )+10400
Beachboy +12000
Bigberd +12000
MadMarat +12300
TheWorstTopTenPlayerEver +14900Comment -
Yeah how ridiculous to bet on the then #1 tennis player in the world on a surface she's powerful enough to dominate on when she's on.Originally posted by mathdotcomComment -
She was #1 for what, a couple of weeks? This is not the old Federer we're talking about. You let your hots for her dictate your bet.
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you are really something. this is the exact thing you said in august when fed was losing meaningless tune-up matches for the us open, i told you then and i will say it again to get it through your thick skull,Originally posted by daggerkobe
FED WILL BE A FACTOR ON ANY GRAND SLAM ON CEMENT OR GRASS
THROUGH 2010
good luck seeing anyone stop him from beating pete's 14 slams
its not if, but when, fed will get his 15th slamComment -
i agree that it should be a minus number, crazyl, but no so highOriginally posted by CrazyL
maybe -175
when will ppl understand (directed at some others in here)
FED ONLY BRINGS HIS BEST TO GRAND SLAMS, WHICH IS WHY LAST YEAR, AN OFF YR FOR HIM, HE MADE THE AUSSIE SEMIS,
FRENCH FINAL, WIMBLEDON FINAL, and won the US OPEN
in the aussie he had mono, but even w/out it probably woulda lost to surging joker-vich
in the french, he lost to the greatest clay-courter ever
in wimbledon, he did not lose, nadal won it. it was called the greatest match ever by many tennis historians
in the us open he strutted his stuff
bury this guy like you guys did in august and you will be made to look foolish (again)
this post brought to you by "hoopster42", one of a handful of ppl here at SBR who said last August that fed was NOT DONE when most posters buried himComment -
Anybody got odds on this?Originally posted by Shark79Dont talk about the Patriots Loco L ....
I havent seen if theres any odds posted but I do see this hitting within the -200 -250.
Regardless of what his condition or mental game is on .... all squares know 2 or 3 names in tennis (NADAL - FED and RODDICK) therefore the books can easily win here.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a -300 on himComment -
Let's see, if hoopster will dig out this thread with his "I told ya so"...
@Shark79
Do you mean Nadal for Roland Garros?Comment -
please make some predictions that come true or stfu!Originally posted by meganie
good day to youComment -
I love Federer but I don't think that he has a 25% chance to win the Australian Open next year. Gun to head I would take Djoker.Comment -
What do you estimate his chances are at a RG win?Originally posted by WheellComment
