Guys if sports betting was beatable why would.........

[jjgold]

Roniie you get banned at books because of this

Pinnacle has Mets -115 and Bet Green has them at -102

Even though books would be very profitable booking this bet they are brainwashed into thinking your betting some off line

Ronnie you still cooking in that small deli??

[wantitall4moi]

If this is true, why do books limit guys or ban them outright for being "sharp"?

GOOD books dont you guys all play at trash total shit books so of course those books who dont have enough money to pay their electric bills are going to limit/ban players they think can beat them.

The ONLY offshore place I got booted from was SIA, and EVERYONE got booted from them eventually.

I took more money of of Pinnacle, Canbet, and the Greek than you guys have seen, never got limited never got banned, never got anything. I did have multiple accounts but that is beside the point, and if these math guys were so smart they would have multiple accounts at the same book to to take advantage of their so called edges.

As far as variance, another math catch phrase. Variance is based on a finite principle. where there is a KNOWN mean. There is no such thing in sports betting, the only mean people can use is the ones book set and players try to figure out. You can try and estimate variance, but you still have to have the known end product to do so. The closing line doesnt count, thats where people fail. Because they think it does.

You dont think guys with actual brains dont know how to do it? You dont think they have all tried? Why havent they figured it out well enough yet? if anything "Variance" is code for "math doesnt work but we have a word that explains why, but we still try to apply math because it is the 'best' way to approach it".

[benjy]

Just because you can't exactly determine what the value of variance is does not preclude it from existing.

Math does work for a lot of things w/ variance. To imply otherwise is just silly.

But when I referred to variance I was simply referring to the ups and downs (a form of variance) in betting even if one did have a winning model.

[ronald]

GOOD books dont you guys all play at trash total shit books so of course those books who dont have enough money to pay their electric bills are going to limit/ban players they think can beat them.

The ONLY offshore place I got booted from was SIA, and EVERYONE got booted from them eventually.

I took more money of of Pinnacle, Canbet, and the Greek than you guys have seen, never got limited never got banned, never got anything. I did have multiple accounts but that is beside the point, and if these math guys were so smart they would have multiple accounts at the same book to to take advantage of their so called edges.

As far as variance, another math catch phrase. Variance is based on a finite principle. where there is a KNOWN mean. There is no such thing in sports betting, the only mean people can use is the ones book set and players try to figure out. You can try and estimate variance, but you still have to have the known end product to do so. The closing line doesnt count, thats where people fail. Because they think it does.

You dont think guys with actual brains dont know how to do it? You dont think they have all tried? Why havent they figured it out well enough yet? if anything "Variance" is code for "math doesnt work but we have a word that explains why, but we still try to apply math because it is the 'best' way to approach it".

So are you saying that books are cutting into their bottom line when they ban "sharp" players? Would they be better off just keeping them at regular limits because the juice will ultimately cause the sharps to lose?

[Fishhead]

LMAO.

That's a whole lot of ignorance.

[ronald]

GOOD books dont you guys all play at trash total shit books so of course those books who dont have enough money to pay their electric bills are going to limit/ban players they think can beat them.

The ONLY offshore place I got booted from was SIA, and EVERYONE got booted from them eventually.

I took more money of of Pinnacle, Canbet, and the Greek than you guys have seen, never got limited never got banned, never got anything. I did have multiple accounts but that is beside the point, and if these math guys were so smart they would have multiple accounts at the same book to to take advantage of their so called edges.

As far as variance, another math catch phrase. Variance is based on a finite principle. where there is a KNOWN mean. There is no such thing in sports betting, the only mean people can use is the ones book set and players try to figure out. You can try and estimate variance, but you still have to have the known end product to do so. The closing line doesnt count, thats where people fail. Because they think it does.

You dont think guys with actual brains dont know how to do it? You dont think they have all tried? Why havent they figured it out well enough yet? if anything "Variance" is code for "math doesnt work but we have a word that explains why, but we still try to apply math because it is the 'best' way to approach it".

How did you hammer these books if your premise is that books are not beatable?

[ronald]

Roniie you get banned at books because of this

Pinnacle has Mets -115 and Bet Green has them at -102

Even though books would be very profitable booking this bet they are brainwashed into thinking your betting some off line

Ronnie you still cooking in that small deli??

Looking to expand. Might open a Deli near the BOCA RATON in Las Vegas......

[CanuckG]

wanty needs to stick to the hooker reviews

http://forum.sbrforum.com/saloon/1564159-wantitall4moi-pays-sex-proof-inside.html

[ApricotSinner32]

Math only works if the games are not rigged.

[acl123]

Somebody answer the original question

[ApricotSinner32]

ACL making a living with a guranteed salary as long as you do your job compared to dealing with the swings of gambling is a safer route to go.

[William Walters]

Does this guy ever make a bad post??

Uh.......yes........quite a few to be exact. He's actually quite the moron.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-talk/1454076-lakers-will-lottery-team.html

[jjgold]

Ganch got buried chasing parlays.. he had some system and it failed

Does he even work at Heritage anymore??

[Sam Odom]

jj ,

'Sharps' are always talking about 3-team parlays - See , the math works better. That is why they are Sharp

[jjgold]

Gamblers Anon is full of Actuaries

I think I just ended the thread with another win

[Darkside Magick]

Ganch got buried chasing parlays.. he had some system and it failed


Does he even work at Heritage anymore??

Even when using Kelly criterion ...ganch always said play the parlays on the calculator.....

[acl123]

Gamblers Anon is full of Actuaries

I think I just ended the thread with another win

Are you saying actuaries lose too?
Or are they preying on the gamblers?

[MonkeyF0cker]

GOOD books dont you guys all play at trash total shit books so of course those books who dont have enough money to pay their electric bills are going to limit/ban players they think can beat them.

The ONLY offshore place I got booted from was SIA, and EVERYONE got booted from them eventually.

I took more money of of Pinnacle, Canbet, and the Greek than you guys have seen, never got limited never got banned, never got anything. I did have multiple accounts but that is beside the point, and if these math guys were so smart they would have multiple accounts at the same book to to take advantage of their so called edges.

As far as variance, another math catch phrase. Variance is based on a finite principle. where there is a KNOWN mean. There is no such thing in sports betting, the only mean people can use is the ones book set and players try to figure out. You can try and estimate variance, but you still have to have the known end product to do so. The closing line doesnt count, thats where people fail. Because they think it does.

You dont think guys with actual brains dont know how to do it? You dont think they have all tried? Why havent they figured it out well enough yet? if anything "Variance" is code for "math doesnt work but we have a word that explains why, but we still try to apply math because it is the 'best' way to approach it".

Mean and variance estimates are not unique to sports betting. They are applied to MANY real-world distributions.

You know absolutely nothing about statistics nor mathematics. It's time you quit posturing like you have a clue what you're talking about.

[Smoke]

wanty needs to stick to the hooker reviews

http://forum.sbrforum.com/saloon/156...of-inside.html

wanty needs to stick to the hooker reviews

http://forum.sbrforum.com/saloon/156...of-inside.html

Uh.......yes........quite a few to be exact. He's actually quite the moron.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/players-ta...tery-team.html

lol

[bettilimbroke999]

To get +110. To not have to worry about getting money down, getting limited etc.

Exactly

You make alot more gettin paid 1.1 than you do .91

[wantitall4moi]

Mean and variance estimates are not unique to sports betting. They are applied to MANY real-world distributions.

You know absolutely nothing about statistics nor mathematics. It's time you quit posturing like you have a clue what you're talking about.

yeah no shit theyre applied to a lot of things, but generally those things are anythng like sports betting. There are so many variables in sports betting it is IMPOSSIBLE to use math.

Just off the top of my head in the NFL...

officiating, replay, scoring system, penalties, injuries, kickers, emotion, that is before you even get to the lines and odds. But with those you have variables as well.

So youre trying to predict something based on a theory using theory to justify the prediction. Yeah that makes sense.

Like I said line up all the math guys in the world and have them start picking football games. Hell line up the math guys who bet now and see how they stand. Most math guys are practicing risk avoidance not actual betting. They play numbers and hope theyre right enough to eeek out a minuscule profit. Nothing wrong with it, but if they had a clue as to what they were doing they could use what they know and push it a little further. But they get so stuck on the numbers and the 'market' and the odds and whatever else they like to hash over they lose the big picture.

On top of all that I have yet to see ANY math guy give a reason as to why they like a game, IF they even give an opinion in the first place. You will have the obligatory 'model says' guys or 'computer says' guys but other than that math guys dont say shit except 'math is the only way to go'. I have yet to see one PROVE it.

But of course that always comes back with the expected response of 'why would we show people out advantages' which is just the same bullshit excuse EVERY LOSER gives when they dont have a legit answer.

[wantitall4moi]

And you guys can laugh all you want about my lakers lottery prediction the truth is, and something you fools will never understand is that they sucked ATS. So even though they didnt make the lottery they were still one of the best fades in the history of the NBA. I surely didnt see anyone bragging about how much money they made betting on the Lakers last season or how much the made from them on futures.

Where were all the models and math guys there? I made a statement and I stuck by it all season and I cashed about 85% betting against the Lakers all season. Shit, they were about 67% on the blind, so any fool could have just bet against them every game and made more money than they ever had gambling. Including the play offs lakers were 27-41 ATS versus the best number, against generic numbers they were 30-44. I will let all you math guys figure out what percentage that actually is.

So laugh it up all you want, I made money, thats all that matters. Considering I hadnt bet the NBA in about a decade and had that kind of 'success' says a lot. But it really had nothing to do with anything other than fading a couple over rated teams and following a bunch of under rated teams. All of them i mentioned BEFORE the season started by the way.

[MonkeyF0cker]

yeah no shit theyre applied to a lot of things, but generally those things are anythng like sports betting. There are so many variables in sports betting it is IMPOSSIBLE to use math.

Just off the top of my head in the NFL...

officiating, replay, scoring system, penalties, injuries, kickers, emotion, that is before you even get to the lines and odds. But with those you have variables as well.

None of that can be quantified? Are you stupid? Nevermind. I know the answer.

So youre trying to predict something based on a theory using theory to justify the prediction. Yeah that makes sense.

No. If you understood what you were talking about, it might make sense to you.

Like I said line up all the math guys in the world and have them start picking football games. Hell line up the math guys who bet now and see how they stand. Most math guys are practicing risk avoidance not actual betting. They play numbers and hope theyre right enough to eeek out a minuscule profit. Nothing wrong with it, but if they had a clue as to what they were doing they could use what they know and push it a little further. But they get so stuck on the numbers and the 'market' and the odds and whatever else they like to hash over they lose the big picture.

Keep pontificating what people using statistical methodologies actually bet. It makes you look like a complete moron.

On top of all that I have yet to see ANY math guy give a reason as to why they like a game, IF they even give an opinion in the first place. You will have the obligatory 'model says' guys or 'computer says' guys but other than that math guys dont say shit except 'math is the only way to go'. I have yet to see one PROVE it.

But of course that always comes back with the expected response of 'why would we show people out advantages' which is just the same bullshit excuse EVERY LOSER gives when they dont have a legit answer.

Show me one gambler that is here to prove to you that they win, and I'll show you a loser.

[William Walters]

None of that can be quantified? Are you stupid? Nevermind. I know the answer.



No. If you understood what you were talking about, it might make sense to you.



Keep pontificating what people using statistical methodologies actually bet. It makes you look like a complete moron.



Show me one gambler that is here to prove to you that they win, and I'll show you a loser.

wanti getting absolutely embarrassed. unreal. fukkin boot in the eye. dirt kicked in face.

[brumbies]

Ganchrow go work for heritage??
Guy was a math wiz.

If Ganchrow can't do it, do you think we degenerates can? Also heard rumours that the legendary Durito is now working a 10/hr job.

[jjgold]

I do not know how you thrown turnovers into any math model

Turnovers are the one thing that no one can predict therefore making sports betting almost impossible

Models can win short term like any other system nothing wins long term but scalping and middles

[notsosharp]

Heard the same thing... He was fading Player in Baccarat using a martingale... Player won 15 straight

Is this a joke?

[ChuckyTheGoat]

If Ganchrow can't do it, do you think we degenerates can? Also heard rumours that the legendary Durito is now working a 10/hr job.

Was Ganchrow a winning sports-player?

[Sam Odom]

Is this a joke?

You can hear anything... but may be true

[brumbies]

Was Ganchrow a winning sports-player?

Nah, if he is, what is he doing working for Heritage?

[SBR_John]

The handful of most successful sports gamblers are real cappers. Of course capping in itself requires decent math skills.

The largest group of winners are math grinders/angle shooters. Guys who can polish middle out of a crap book with a bonus and scoop a few bucks, the Durito types. It's a lot of work and robs you of time you could be doing something meaningful. I've never met a rich math grinder and doubt I ever will. course ive never met a rich gambler either so maybe it is time to move on.

[Sam Odom]

I've never met a rich math grinder and doubt I ever will.

[byronbb]

A model is going to give you an opinion on a game based on stats. However, unknown information is where the gold is. That said, when you arb a square line vs Pinny you lose at Pinny and win at the square book. This is just a fact. So beating the closing line is a valid concept on average. Outside of this lies those game where there is information that is not public and that will have a real impact on the game. You have to either get that yourself by hiring barrelled in CIA ops, or infer it from the lines when the books are taking leans or when there is obvious sharp/public splits on a side.

As for sharps going broke, its not surprising. A sharp likes to think he is a cold calculating math machine when deep down he is a degenerate gambler though and through. Phil Ivey and Doyle are incredible poker players and have won reams of money, but they will be degenerates until the day they die.

[wantitall4moi]

A model is going to give you an opinion on a game based on stats. However, unknown information is where the gold is. That said, when you arb a square line vs Pinny you lose at Pinny and win at the square book. This is just a fact. So beating the closing line is a valid concept on average. Outside of this lies those game where there is information that is not public and that will have a real impact on the game. You have to either get that yourself by hiring barrelled in CIA ops, or infer it from the lines when the books are taking leans or when there is obvious sharp/public splits on a side.

As for sharps going broke, its not surprising. A sharp likes to think he is a cold calculating math machine when deep down he is a degenerate gambler though and through. Phil Ivey and Doyle are incredible poker players and have won reams of money, but they will be degenerates until the day they die.

A SMART guy is going to arb Pinnacle within itself. To do this you obviously have to take leads and buy back. But again a SMART guy is going to know the games to bet.

Pinnacle is going to beat 99% of the online books 100% of the time BOTH ways. There are maybe 3 books that you might get 3 or 4 cents from online. Vegas and locals can be more and are really the best options.

[antifoil]

they paid a premium for his ability to generate dual lines.