Packers -8

[Demonata]

Packers will be scoring at will.

[RL75]

go check out how many ppg the "best team in football" gives up.

2.5 PPG fewer than "the hottest team in the NFL"

[No coincidences]

regardless, i still don't think you would be on the packers if it was 65% their way. i looked at all your plays tonight and each one was on the 30-40% "non public" side of the wager. i really don't get why you are so extreme in that regard.

30-40% is extreme? Especially when you have subjective numbers that can be open for interpretation -- you're basically talking about a toss-up for which side the public is backing. I think you're reading way too much into how much I make plays based on strictly fading the public.

Now with that being said, the public can't pick dogs. Of course there are times when they do, but it's a pretty good bet against -- especially when you get the best player in the game and the defending SB champs at -7.5 or -8 on their home turf.

Let me ask you this, Dex: the Giants were what, +5 at home vs. Green Bay the first time around? And they lost by 3? And now they open at -9? Does that make sense to you? If the Giants were the play, I figured the line would open at +6.5.

Now let me say this: the Giants and Packers have been my kryptonite this year. I'm not guaranteeing anything. I just like Green Bay in this spot, and I'll probably play it big. I see value with the Packers, not the Giants. Just my take. We'll see what happens.

[lakerboy]

Dexter if you are gonna let those reg season stats of the packers influence your bet then i dont think that is wise. They had tons of injuries all year. They are pretty healthy now. This was the best d in football last year. There isnt much difference this year except injuries. The giants will be done in the 3rd qtr if not before that.

[Dexter]

2.5 PPG fewer than "the hottest team in the NFL"

hottest team in the NFL factors in their recent streak. the number you are looking at for the giants factors in what they gave up earlier in the year when banged up on defemse. best team in the NFL looks at the season as a whole. im sorry but i have a difficult time calling a team that has the worst statistical defense and a below avg scoring defense the best in the NFL. Best QB, and Best Offense.....sure.

[Dexter]

Dexter if you are gonna let those reg season stats of the packers influence your bet then i dont think that is wise. They had tons of injuries all year. They are pretty healthy now. This was the best d in football last year. There isnt much difference this year except injuries. The giants will be done in the 3rd qtr if not before that.

so have the giants - difference is the giants defense has looked great the last few weeks, while the packers defense has continued to show how weak it is.

as usual, love your arrogance and confidence. that 100x win got you right back to your normal self

[naslax13]

Sadly i agree, and I'm a huge gmen fan. I think they will come to play but i dk if the pressure will get to him, he will probably expose the shitty secondary. Too many ppl on the bandwagon and the books go out and open the line at 8.5, if it was 6.5 i would feel good with gmen but vegas aint giving them much of a shot here, they want all the giant money

[Dexter]

30-40% is extreme? Especially when you have subjective numbers that can be open for interpretation -- you're basically talking about a toss-up for which side the public is backing. I think you're reading way too much into how much I make plays based on strictly fading the public.

Now with that being said, the public can't pick dogs. Of course there are times when they do, but it's a pretty good bet against -- especially when you get the best player in the game and the defending SB champs at -7.5 or -8 on their home turf.

Let me ask you this, Dex: the Giants were what, +5 at home vs. Green Bay the first time around? And they lost by 3? And now they open at -9? Does that make sense to you? If the Giants were the play, I figured the line would open at +6.5.

Now let me say this: the Giants and Packers have been my kryptonite this year. I'm not guaranteeing anything. I just like Green Bay in this spot, and I'll probably play it big. I see value with the Packers, not the Giants. Just my take. We'll see what happens.

i meant extreme in that you will almost never take a public play. 90% of the time, you side with the 40% or < team.

the last thing i am about to do is get into a discussion with you about why a line is where its at etc....you know i can give a shit less about that garbage, as i do not let the books play mind games with me. you read waaaaaay too much into lines and what they should be in your opinion etc etc....and you know i am not the only person to mention that to you. for whatever reason, you choose this route then to simply looking at the game and looking at some movement.

[lakerboy]

Dexter read the post between yours and mine. That guy knows what he is talking about. Btw why isn't the line going down more since money moves lines and u did say more sharp money was on the giants. I'm with you on balty pal. Hope u hit it hard.

[Dexter]

Dexter read the post between yours and mine. That guy knows what he is talking about. Btw why isn't the line going down more since money moves lines and u did say more sharp money was on the giants. I'm with you on balty pal. Hope u hit it hard.

pretty sure i never said "sharp" money was on giants...if i did, i dont recall.

i will leave the line movement reads to you, but i see the line opening at 8.5 at BM, and going to 8 then 7.5. Pinnacle shows an open of 9 with a drop to 8 and the Giants are being juiced.

Vegas shops - Mirage opened at 9 and went to 7.5. Hilton did the same.
Im sorry, but the Packers are not going to drop to a 7pt favorite at home in the playoffs. This is staying 7.5-8. I have +9 so im fine with a 28-20 game. Push for you, win for me....

If this line opened at 9, and went to 10 with 65% on the Giants - then yes, i would not like my bet as much. fading RLM to the favorite is something i dont like to do....this line has done whats its supposed to.

[meader99]

so have the giants - difference is the giants defense has looked great the last few weeks, while the packers defense has continued to show how weak it is.

as usual, love your arrogance and confidence. that 100x win got you right back to your normal self

When was the last time the Packers whole defense played a game that mattered? I can't remember. They sat Woodson and Matthews in week 17....Pickett was out for 3 weeks and two starting line backers were out when they played the Giants. If you are going to apply injuries and missed games, apply them to both teams.

[Dexter]

When was the last time the Packers whole defense played a game that mattered? I can't remember. They sat Woodson and Matthews in week 17....Pickett was out for 3 weeks and two starting line backers were out when they played the Giants. If you are going to apply injuries and missed games, apply them to both teams.

are you a packers fan, or does the avatar have to do with a bet you have on GB?

i hear you - so just to be clear, you expect the packers defense to show up tomorrow and be the defense they were in the 2010 playoffs? (by the way, i pounded GB throughout the playoffs last year in EVERY round). why? because of their defense. this year, i see the giants defense as the one peaking at the right time. and i am not a giants fan.

[No coincidences]

i meant extreme in that you will almost never take a public play. 90% of the time, you side with the 40% or < team.

the last thing i am about to do is get into a discussion with you about why a line is where its at etc....you know i can give a shit less about that garbage, as i do not let the books play mind games with me. you read waaaaaay too much into lines and what they should be in your opinion etc etc....and you know i am not the only person to mention that to you. for whatever reason, you choose this route then to simply looking at the game and looking at some movement.

I lost well over 30 units siding with two public plays in the past few months thank you very much. They were my two biggest plays of the year, and they were both disasters.

As far as "reading too much into the lines," possibly -- but these are NFL playoff lines. Do you think they will be soft? They're going to put the Giants at an enticing price because it's the Giants and books know a lot of people will go by what they saw last week and the first time these two teams played.

If this line goes to 7, I will be worried. If it doesn't, I won't. The move from 9 to 7.5 means nothing to me.

[Demonata]

Packers are good at covering, especially in the playoffs. They will cover 7.5 here.

[Dexter]

I lost well over 30 units siding with two public plays in the past few months thank you very much. They were my two biggest plays of the year, and they were both disasters.

As far as "reading too much into the lines," possibly -- but these are NFL playoff lines. Do you think they will be soft? They're going to put the Giants at an enticing price because it's the Giants and books know a lot of people will go by what they saw last week and the first time these two teams played.

If this line goes to 7, I will be worried. If it doesn't, I won't. The move from 9 to 7.5 means nothing to me.

you shouldn't make a 2 game sample steer you away from some public plays imo. if you believe so much in fading the public, why in the world would you make huge plays on public choices....you made a bad decision weighting those games - that's all.

im just a firm believer in that happy medium - making "sharp" and "square" plays....your plays are ALWAYS "sharp."

[Dexter]

I will have a writeup on the game. I'm not from Wisconsin. News flash: the Packers are the best team in the NFL. By the way, they were also 11-5 ATS this year.

[Dexter]

I'll clear up what I'm saying in my writeups tomorrow. Anything can happen, but odds are remarkably against a NYG win. You don't know what you are getting into, Giant bettors.

[chargers4222]

maybe this kid is a good fade...will start next week, hopefully him and goaty are both on the 49ers