Packers -8

[No coincidences]

Beating Dallas twice and the Jets once to close out the year is no small accomplishment.

Seriously SK? Three wins over arguably the two most dysfunctional teams in football is an achievement?

[fergie's balls]

beating the Cowboys twice in games Cowboys needed for playoff lives should not be overlooked. Jets also playing for their playoff lives in that game. Giants been playing in nothing but pressure for three straight weeks and Packers have not been under ANY pressure in a month. this counts for something!

[suicidekings]

Seriously SK? Three wins over arguably the two most dysfunctional teams in football is an achievement?

When in a win or go home situation, the gravity of the games is greater, so yes. But the real point of that statement was that the team is firing on all cylinders at the most critical time. Wouldn't you say that the books opening this game at NYG +9/+8.5 is showing a decent amount of respect to the Giants going to Lambeau to face the 15-1 Packers on a bye?

[lakerboy]

When in a win or go home situation, the gravity of the games is greater, so yes. But the real point of that statement was that the team is firing on all cylinders at the most critical time. Wouldn't you say that the books opening this game at NYG +9/+8.5 is showing a decent amount of respect to the Giants going to Lambeau to face the 15-1 Packers on a bye?

Yes books are giving the giants that respect but also because they know everyone knows the first meeting was close and public will look at any line over 10 and pound new york. books think its gonna be a 10 point win probably. -8 is a dead number.

[Weeton]

When in a win or go home situation, the gravity of the games is greater, so yes. But the real point of that statement was that the team is firing on all cylinders at the most critical time. Wouldn't you say that the books opening this game at NYG +9/+8.5 is showing a decent amount of respect to the Giants going to Lambeau to face the 15-1 Packers on a bye?

What matters is they are getting hot at the right time. I'd lean towards GB winning, but by -8...that doesn't seem as certain. And for what it's worth, Eli has been stellar 4q this season, which makes me feel like NYG can safely nestle themselves in that +8 realm.

[Dexter]

I see everyone seems to be back on the Giants' bandwagon -- especially given their lopsided playoff opener and how close this game was during the regular season.

I've been fading Green Bay almost all season and it's borderline hazardous to my health. Now the Giants are suddenly the trendy dog -- that's typically when they go splat. I think the Packers win this game going away.

Let's get real here: you're going to fade Rodgers on his home turf against an erratic team like the G-men? Who knows what you'll get from the visitors. I do know what we'll get from Green Bay. Pack by at least 10. Might be my biggest NFL bet of the year.

how are they erratic? they have looked great for 5 of the last 6 games with the only bad game the expected letdown vs Wash....Green Bay's defense is not good. I will take the better defense getting 9 pts in any playoff game.

[Dexter]

The move from -9 to -8 or even -7.5 is irrelevant. Books are collecting the juice on the Giants right now. Only a dip to -7 would be significant, and even then I wouldn't be too worried given how many people will take the Giants as an underdog both ATS and SU.

is it irrelevant or convenient for your argument?....

[suicidekings]

Yes books are giving the giants that respect but also because they know everyone knows the first meeting was close and public will look at any line over 10 and pound new york. books think its gonna be a 10 point win probably. -8 is a dead number.

Maybe. I would think that there will be a lot of GB money coming in on the weekend (How can it not on the 15-1 public darling?), both in teasers and at the number. Right now, you can take the Packers -7 (-121) at Pinny, or tease it down to -2 from -8 (+105), so anyone that likes the Pack is getting a very good number at the moment. Personally, I'd rather have NYG +14 than GB -2.

It seems counter-intuitive to me that the closing line will end up favouring the Giants, and if it does, that's pretty significant.

[Dexter]

Maybe. I would think that there will be a lot of GB money coming in on the weekend (How can it not on the 15-1 public darling?), both in teasers and at the number. Right now, you can take the Packers -7 (-121) at Pinny, or tease it down to -2 from -8 (+105), so anyone that likes the Pack is getting a very good number at the moment. Personally, I'd rather have NYG +14 than GB -2.

It seems counter-intuitive to me that the closing line will end up favouring the Giants, and if it does, that's pretty significant.

do you think this line has a chance of closing at 10 or >?

[suicidekings]

do you think this line has a chance of closing at 10 or >?

I think the best line for the Giants was the opening +9. I think if it got back up to that level, there would be too much interest in the Giants to ever make it to 10. I'm not touching this game, but if +10 ever appeared, I think I would have to play it.

The more I think about this, why are the books offering a Wong teaser on the Pack so freely? If the Pack is the right side, the opportunity to hit them at less than a field goal should be getting hammered...

[BaLLcappin99]

no coin just be honest and admit you are on the packers because the public % distribution is on majorly on the giants

[lakerboy]

Too much thinking going on in here. I repeat the packers will blowout the giants.

[No coincidences]

is it irrelevant or convenient for your argument?....

A move from -9 to -7.5 or +9 to +7.5 is always irrelevant to me, regardless of who I do or don't like.

Other leans for the weekend:

Niners +3.5
Niners/Saints under 47.5
Ravens/Texans under 36

[No coincidences]

no coin just be honest and admit you are on the packers because the public % distribution is on majorly on the giants

Early yes, but those numbers are skewed and not accurate at all vs. where they'll end up. Who from the casual betting public bets these games 4, 5 or 6 days ahead of time?

I agree with LB in that I honestly feel like taking the Giants is overthinking the situation. I'm not guaranteeing anything -- that's just my opinion.

[Dexter]

Too much thinking going on in here. I repeat the packers will blowout the giants.

love the arrogance LB.....your opinion is all that matters!!!

[Dexter]

Early yes, but those numbers are skewed and not accurate at all vs. where they'll end up. Who from the casual betting public bets these games 4, 5 or 6 days ahead of time?

I agree with LB in that I honestly feel like taking the Giants is overthinking the situation. I'm not guaranteeing anything -- that's just my opinion.

you told me that the public bet % numbers even overnight are pretty much where they will wind up. so i think its safe to say you're confident the "public" will be on the giants.

you agreed with LB.....no way! lol

yeah, i didnt really "overthink" anything. i am pretty decisive when i make my plays. though i wouldnt be shocked to see you change your opinion on this come sunday. cmon nocoin, dont be afraid to come into "squareville"!!

[StackinGreen]

I'm with you, No Coincidences.

At home, the Giants are a much different team, and they are now going to the best team's home field. People are going to be surprised at how much more (relatively) pressure Green Bay gets than NYG, who absolutely need D-line pressure to have any chance in this game.

[Dexter]

I'm with you, No Coincidences.

At home, the Giants are a much different team, and they are now going to the best team's home field. People are going to be surprised at how much more (relatively) pressure Green Bay gets than NYG, who absolutely need D-line pressure to have any chance in this game.

dude....hush. you bet the packers every week. you have to be from Wisconsin or something.

[k13]

no coin just be honest and admit you are on the packers because the public % distribution is on majorly on the giants

That's how most of you got buried with LSU.

Big difference between the public liking a fave and a dog.

All year everyone wanted to bet the better team and better QB yet now they love the giants.

[StackinGreen]

dude....hush. you bet the packers every week. you have to be from Wisconsin or something.

I will have a writeup on the game. I'm not from Wisconsin. News flash: the Packers are the best team in the NFL. By the way, they were also 11-5 ATS this year.

[Dexter]

I will have a writeup on the game. I'm not from Wisconsin. News flash: the Packers are the best team in the NFL. By the way, they were also 11-5 ATS this year.

you have wheels of cheese in your fridge. admit it.

yeah, the best team in the NFL is dead last in total defense...

there is no clear cut "best team" imo....anyone of these teams left can win the SBowl execept denver and hou.
trust me - its scary to bet against rodgers, but timid betting is not going to get you far in this game....

[jon101]

Definitely shop for the 1 point difference at -7 as this will be a tough win since they are banged up.

[lakerboy]

love the arrogance LB.....your opinion is all that matters!!!

Destroyed the nfl playoffs every year. This year won't be any different.

[No coincidences]

you told me that the public bet % numbers even overnight are pretty much where they will wind up. so i think its safe to say you're confident the "public" will be on the giants.

you agreed with LB.....no way! lol

yeah, i didnt really "overthink" anything. i am pretty decisive when i make my plays. though i wouldnt be shocked to see you change your opinion on this come sunday. cmon nocoin, dont be afraid to come into "squareville"!!

When did I say that?

Only way I'll change my opinion of going big vs. going small on GB is if the line dips below 7.5, and I just don't see that happening. I've watched both of these teams play at least 10 times this year, including the game against each other. At Lambeau, I'm not interested in the Giants at all.

[Dexter]

When did I say that?

Only way I'll change my opinion of going big vs. going small on GB is if the line dips below 7.5, and I just don't see that happening. I've watched both of these teams play at least 10 times this year, including the game against each other. At Lambeau, I'm not interested in the Giants at all.

about a year ago when you were looking at public bet %'s overnight and my argument was that its a waste of time to look at that before game-day. you said that if it shows 80% to one team, there was no doubt that they would still be about a 60% choice gameday. i can care less about public bet %'s, so i really dont know how that fluctuates.

regardless, i still don't think you would be on the packers if it was 65% their way. i looked at all your plays tonight and each one was on the 30-40% "non public" side of the wager. i really don't get why you are so extreme in that regard.

[p19101]

about a year ago when you were looking at public bet %'s overnight and my argument was that its a waste of time to look at that before game-day. you said that if it shows 80% to one team, there was no doubt that they would still be about a 60% choice gameday. i can care less about public bet %'s, so i really dont know how that fluctuates.

regardless, i still don't think you would be on the packers if it was 65% their way. i looked at all your plays tonight and each one was on the 30-40% "non public" side of the wager. i really don't get why you are so extreme in that regard.

kid is trying to be cool...

[Stevedore]

...

[Jhart2838]

Too much thinking going on in here. I repeat the packers will blowout the giants.

Why? Because they blew them out last time? And so what if the Packers are healthier then last time around....so are the giants!

[Mr Handicapable]

I'm with you, No Coincidences.

At home, the Giants are a much different team, and they are now going to the best team's home field. People are going to be surprised at how much more (relatively) pressure Green Bay gets than NYG, who absolutely need D-line pressure to have any chance in this game.

I doubt some of you people even watch these teams? Eli always seems to have his clunkers at home if he's going to have one. He was laying a turd vs the Jets till Cruz took a short pass 99 yds. I've also watched the Pack all year and if Matthews doesn't get there than nobody gets there. They also tackle like $hit....the Bell kid from the Bears ran all over them even with 8 in the box. I don't think a team can change their season long trends just because of an extra week off. No way whatsover that NY can't exploit that secondary with Nicks, Cruz, and Manningham. Everyone else has thrown all over GB with much worse than that. If Jennings/Starks are back to normal then it could be a track meet both ways but Finley/James Jones drop almost as many as they catch. Overall Rodgers, Crosby, and Lambeau will prob pull it out but it should be a great game. The Giants are coming in with a ton of confidence and Eli could easily pull a backdoor too if need be....Giants are the play imo.

[Snowball]

I would buy to -6. 5D has them at -7.5
agreed, Giants love has gone too far.
tease with Houston or Denver possible

[StackinGreen]

I'll clear up what I'm saying in my writeups tomorrow. Anything can happen, but odds are remarkably against a NYG win. You don't know what you are getting into, Giant bettors.

[No coincidences]

kid is trying to be cool...

I'm trying to be "cool" by taking the best team in the NFL record-wise at home as a more than 1 TD fave?



Bets don't get much more square/boring than that -- at least in theory.

[meader99]

you have wheels of cheese in your fridge. admit it.

yeah, the best team in the NFL is dead last in total defense...

there is no clear cut "best team" imo....anyone of these teams left can win the SBowl execept denver and hou.
trust me - its scary to bet against rodgers, but timid betting is not going to get you far in this game....

Silly me, I always thought it was points that won and lost football games, not yards.....

[Dexter]

Silly me, I always thought it was points that won and lost football games, not yards.....

go check out how many ppg the "best team in football" gives up.

[meader99]

Iknow what they give up.....It's not even close to last. You boys are missing the biggest factor in the game....turnovers. If Eli turns the ball over Green Bay will roll. Only game Green Bay lost all year was the one they didn't force any turnovers. Giants can have their yards, points win games.