Saints -3 -125 vs. San Fran

[MidgetTossers]

Your thoughts?

[warriorfan707]

[Megatron]

Niners!!!! But I'm just a homer...

[MidgetTossers]

the saints just put up 45 on detroit at home..guess they will do that with ease on san fran right?

[mngambler]

the fade Brees crew will be buried once again next week...I can already hear it now "but, but its on the road" like I give a shit if its on the road, I'll take Brees and his 450 and 4td average by a field goal any day of the week and twice on tuesday against Smith and his 20% redzone offense...fg's not gonna get it done,,sorry

[warriorfan707]

the fade Brees crew will be buried once again next week...I can already hear it now "but, but its on the road" like I give a shit if its on the road, I'll take Brees and his 450 and 4td average by a field goal any day of the week and twice on tuesday against Smith and his 20% redzone offense...fg's not gonna get it done,,sorry

U do that pal

Lets see how it works out for you

[rdkjglsk]

every game saints play seems to have people getting progressively more hostile

[Dexter]

are you kidding me.....sf is +3 at home to the saints? wow....i would have made SF the 3 pt choice. i will no doubt take SF....

[LLXC]

Sf +3.5

[MidgetTossers]

are you kidding me.....sf is +3 at home to the saints? wow....i would have made SF the 3 pt choice. i will no doubt take SF....

[MidgetTossers]

classic offense vs defense...we shall see how it turns out..i for one cannot wait...like ive said before this year has already been way more than i expected and i'm gonna just enjoy the ride

[chopperocker]

its a bit juiced up. ill let it shake out. if you like the SFO side id wait cuz this # will move in ur favor.

[mngambler]

U do that pal

Lets see how it works out for you

ok don't worry pal...I've said the exact thing in every single multi page "fade Brees" thread dating back to Vikes when clowns like you said "Brees is bad on the road...2 many points to give on the road even against the Vikes, etc. etc." then I said the same exact thing once again when they torched the Falcons....and I said it again this week and took them at -10, plus a tease as well...for a total of 13.6 unit profit in all 3 weeks (4 total bets) so ya don't worry I'm not really sweating a few units against a offensively weak 9'ers team...but thanks for your concern pal

[warriorfan707]

its a bit juiced up. ill let it shake out. if you like the SFO side id wait cuz this # will move in ur favor.

I seriously doubt that.

It is slightly possible it moves to 4 max.

I think it is very likely it ends at 3.5 or 3.

[MidgetTossers]

so saints point totals on grass in away games this year...34@G.B(loss)...23@JAX(LOL)....30@ CAR(great defense there)...20@TB(loss)(ROFL)...22@Tenn(LOL )

Not a great point output against some pretty shitty teams and even shittier defenses...yea, niners have no shot here

[warriorfan707]

so saints point totals on grass in away games this year...34@G.B(loss)...23@JAX(LOL)....30@ CAR(great defense there)...20@TB(loss)(ROFL)...22@Tenn(LOL )

Not a great point output against some pretty shitty teams and even shittier defenses...yea, niners have no shot here

[mngambler]

so saints point totals on grass in away games this year...34@G.B(loss)...23@JAX(LOL)....30@ CAR(great defense there)...20@TB(loss)(ROFL)...22@Tenn(LOL )

Not a great point output against some pretty shitty teams and even shittier defenses...yea, niners have no shot here

ya and with all that said the Saints still average more pts ON THE ROAD then the 9'ers average AT HOME over the last half of the season...whats your point?

[warriorfan707]

ya and with all that said the Saints still average more pts ON THE ROAD then the 9'ers average AT HOME over the last half of the season...whats your point?

The Saints havent faced the Niners defense yet

[MidgetTossers]

ya and with all that said the Saints still average more pts ON THE ROAD then the 9'ers average AT HOME over the last half of the season...whats your point?

im not here to argue with u dude..just play the saints and be happy..man, i wonder how the hell they had the same record if they didnt average as many points as the saints..can u explain that to me...if u dont get my point then im not gonna explain it to you..this isnt sunday school son..have a nice day and good luck to you

[mngambler]

The Saints havent faced the Niners defense yet

I realize this, and I'm well aware Brees is not as huge of a beast on grass, but man they haven't last in basically 2.5 months and they are just scorching hot right now, so tough for me to fade Brees esp. because he has been so good to me lately, is the line confirmed at -3 for the most part?

[warriorfan707]

Its Saints -3.5 -105 on 5dimes

+3.5 is -115

[MidgetTossers]

I realize this, and I'm well aware Brees is not as huge of a beast on grass, but man they haven't last in basically 2.5 months and they are just scorching hot right now, so tough for me to fade Brees esp. because he has been so good to me lately, is the line confirmed at -3 for the most part?

pinnacle is -3 -125 for saints right now

[zsr]

Haven't watched a lot of niners games, the few I've seen, isn't there pass d there weakness? Along with o-line..if get down early theyll be in a world of trouble, if they can establish the run and ball hog this could be one hell of a win. Will be a great game either way.

[mngambler]

im not here to argue with u dude..just play the saints and be happy..man, i wonder how the hell they had the same record if they didnt average as many points as the saints..can u explain that to me...if u dont get my point then im not gonna explain it to you..this isnt sunday school son..have a nice day and good luck to you

na dude didn't mean to start some gay e-argument, just a tough time fading Brees right now...I know SF defense is tough but aren't you honestly concerned with San Frans below avg red zone % and do you think they can honestly keep up on offense?

[warriorfan707]

Keeping up on offense is pretty easy when you have the best defense in the NFL

[MidgetTossers]

na dude didn't mean to start some gay e-argument, just a tough time fading Brees right now...I know SF defense is tough but aren't you honestly concerned with San Frans below avg red zone % and do you think they can honestly keep up on offense?

of course im concerned with their redzonre offense but something tells me that harbaugh and roman will have some play calls up there sleeve for this game..shit they won 13 games with a vanilla offense..if this was last year under singletary i would be really afraid but i have complete faith in harbaugh..san fran is +28 in turnover ratio this year..if you watched the game tonight, the lions had a few shots at interceptions and didnt get any...the niners get those and they just dont turn the ball over...saints wont be able to run and the niners will and if its that type of ball control game the niners have a great shot..i think 23 points will win this game for san fran..i honestly do

[GamblerSpirit]

The world is going to get buried with the Saints next week.

[mngambler]

of course im concerned with their redzonre offense but something tells me that harbaugh and roman will have some play calls up there sleeve for this game..shit they won 13 games with a vanilla offense..if this was last year under singletary i would be really afraid but i have complete faith in harbaugh..san fran is +28 in turnover ratio this year..if you watched the game tonight, the lions had a few shots at interceptions and didnt get any...the niners get those and they just dont turn the ball over...saints wont be able to run and the niners will and if its that type of ball control game the niners have a great shot..i think 23 points will win this game for san fran..i honestly do

see I have 9'ers around the same number at best, but think Saints can cover it..27-21, 24-17 something along those lines...now if its a random week 7 and its Brees on grass I don't like it much against this Defense, but with everything on the line and the momentum the Saints are riding I think they can pull it out...either way its an avg. to slighty above avg. play for me...nothing crazy, at least I believe it will be a damn good game either way compared to the crap we had to watch earlier this afternoon

[GamblerSpirit]

at least I believe it will be a damn good game either way compared to the crap we had to watch earlier this afternoon

Amen. **** the NFL, and this bullshit they created. The refs just control the game now...who's to say they don't profit from their calls?

[MidgetTossers]

see I have 9'ers around the same number at best, but think Saints can cover it..27-21, 24-17 something along those lines...now if its a random week 7 and its Brees on grass I don't like it much against this Defense, but with everything on the line and the momentum the Saints are riding I think they can pull it out...either way its an avg. to slighty above avg. play for me...nothing crazy, at least I believe it will be a damn good game either way compared to the crap we had to watch earlier this afternoon

well thats why they play the games!...yes it should be a great game...good luck to you...




but i hope u lose this play...

[KuLaPhU]

Jim harbaugh will play mind games he will call some crazy plays fake punts, field goals etc. just like college football. I see Brees get sack at least 3x and at least 3 picks. there's no way red and gold lose this one and if they do? maybe just a point or 3. I'll take frisco +pts

[suicidekings]

The hostility in this thread is funny.

The one point I'd add regarding SF's defense is that their big strength is in their ability to stop the running game (They're ranked #1 in rushing defense). Their strength against powerful passing attacks is not nearly as robust. Romo put up 345 yards against them, playing half the game with a broken rib. Vick threw for 416 yards. Several others managed 300+ yard days despite multiple sacks & interceptions cutting their production. Seeing as SF's path right now would likely be the Saints, then the Packers (and then potentially the Patriots), they have virtually no chance of running all the way to the Superbowl.

That being said, Brees is the best QB they will face this season, to date, who is defended by one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL (NO is ranked #1 at Football Outsiders), and throwing to one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps around. SF has particular trouble with RBs receiving out of the backfield (Sproles) and has a much harder time with QBs who spread the ball around to multiple receivers rather than focusing on their top #1/2 options.

SF is a good team, but they don't have the firepower to win a shootout. They should have some success in containing the NO running game (although NO is loaded at the RB position as well) but when it comes down to stopping Brees and the NO passing game, I find it hard to believe that SF is going to be very successful. Detroit has a better secondary than SF and the Saints ripped it apart tonight, simply because Brees had as much time as he needed to sit in the pocket and wait for his receivers to find space for him. The mismatch between SF's pass rush and NO's pass protection is just as extreme as the one we saw tonight (SF is ranked #22 in pass rushing).

I'm not in a huge hurry to bet the Saints because I have futures on them already, but I like them at -3 and will watch the price to get the best deal possible. Anyone taking the Niners on the premise that "defense wins championships" or "home dogs have value" is going to be disappointed because this game really comes down to the matchup issues listed above. IMO, the Niners dream season is over.

[MidgetTossers]

The hostility in this thread is funny.

The one point I'd add regarding SF's defense is that their big strength is in their ability to stop the running game (They're ranked #1 in rushing defense). Their strength against powerful passing attacks is not nearly as robust. Romo put up 345 yards against them, playing half the game with a broken rib. Vick threw for 416 yards. Several others managed 300+ yard days despite multiple sacks & interceptions cutting their production. Seeing as SF's path right now would likely be the Saints, then the Packers (and then potentially the Patriots), they have virtually no chance of running all the way to the Superbowl.

That being said, Brees is the best QB they will face this season, to date, who is defended by one of the best Offensive Lines in the NFL (NO is ranked #1 at Football Outsiders), and throwing to one of the deepest and most talented receiving corps around. SF has particular trouble with RBs receiving out of the backfield (Sproles) and has a much harder time with QBs who spread the ball around to multiple receivers rather than focusing on their top #1/2 options.

SF is a good team, but they don't have the firepower to win a shootout. They should have some success in containing the NO running game (although NO is loaded at the RB position as well) but when it comes down to stopping Brees and the NO passing game, I find it hard to believe that SF is going to be very successful. Detroit has a better secondary than SF and the Saints ripped it apart tonight, simply because Brees had as much time as he needed to sit in the pocket and wait for his receivers to find space for him. The mismatch between SF's pass rush and NO's pass protection is just as extreme as the one we saw tonight (SF is ranked #22 in pass rushing).

I'm not in a huge hurry to bet the Saints because I have futures on them already, but I like them at -3 and will watch the price to get the best deal possible. Anyone taking the Niners on the premise that "defense wins championships" or "home dogs have value" is going to be disappointed because this game really comes down to the matchup issues listed above. IMO, the Niners dream season is over.

always respect your opinions SK but i honestly don't believe this will be a shootout and i really dont think the saints secondary is better than San Frans...the niners have given up big yds to vick and romo but they still only gave up 27 to dallas(OT) and 23 to philly...and rookie aldon smith(14 sacks) and justin smith(defensive player of the year) will definitely be in brees' face..BOL to you

[Koldazzice]

anyone who wants the niners needs to scoop them now - u think they are moving this game past 4?
Learn2VEGAS. 75% will be on the saints but yet the line will move to 3 cause of sharp money - get the 3.5 while you can.
Or wait if your a saints backer. wanna beat the line take niners +3.5 and hope to get -2.5 on saints.

[suicidekings]

always respect your opinions SK but i honestly don't believe this will be a shootout and i really dont think the saints secondary is better than San Frans...the niners have given up big yds to vick and romo but they still only gave up 27 to dallas(OT) and 23 to philly...and rookie aldon smith(14 sacks) and justin smith(defensive player of the year) will definitely be in brees' face..BOL to you

Never said that. The Saints secondary has a much easier task in this game than the Niners secondary as Alex Smith won't spread the ball around as much, or throw downfield as often as Brees. Even if you take the PHI/DAL output as 24/23 in regulation, that means they put up approximately their season averages against the SF defense (23.1 & 24.8 respectively). New Orleans averaged 10 points more than that this season at 34.8ppg. The Saints will try to make it a shootout.

Anyways, I'm not here to fight. Just thought I'd throw in my two cents. Good luck to you MT