Wager that I can't hit at least 18 of the next 23 games - ThrowDown Thread

[StackinGreen]

Back story:

After over a year I've been emailing with friends who had challenged me to a contest. They said I couldn't hit 70% picks NFL. After stating that % doesn't mean much, only ROI really matters, I still took them up on the challenge. Well, as it turns out, combining a hot start last year and an average season so far this year, I need to go 18-5 to show them who's boss.

Can I do it? It all began with New Orleans -8.5 tonight (as you can see on the other thread).

I'm getting back to JUST top plays. Sparingly, but successful.

[BernardMadoff]

Id bet you real money you wont and we can do paypal for the exchange.

[Dexter]

$Green = The King



kid makes it rain on his bookies head

[StackinGreen]

Real?

Id bet you real money you wont and we can do paypal for the exchange.

Not Ponzi money? What's your offer?

I hope you're one of these strokes that says, "Even money."

Having said that, if you still reply with that, it would be as funny as it is embarrassing.

[StackinGreen]

$Green = The King



kid makes it rain on his bookies head

I still love you, Dex. Change that avatar though, please. I'm tired of looking at it.

[BernardMadoff]

I gotta give you odds on something youre guaranteeing? Fine, what odds would you like?

[Love The Action]

Back story:

After over a year I've been emailing with friends who had challenged me to a contest. They said I couldn't hit 70% picks NFL. After stating that % doesn't mean much, only ROI really matters, I still took them up on the challenge. Well, as it turns out, combining a hot start last year and an average season so far this year, I need to go 18-5 to show the who's boss.

Can I do it? It all began with New Orleans -8.5 tonight (as you can see on the other thread).

I'm getting back to JUST top plays. Sparingly, but successful.

No. I doubt it. The lines will be getting sharper and you have really cooled off this season after a good season last year. Good luck though. The odds of going 18-5 in the NFL is remote at best

[StackinGreen]

1-0.

[BernardMadoff]

State the odds.

[StackinGreen]

I gotta give you odds on something youre guaranteeing? Fine, what odds would you like?

This is what I don't get about some people. When did I ever say I was guaranteeing anything? I asked, can I do it?

You said, "No. I don't think you can." Which is fair.

So what's your offer?

[ebelisle22]

alright so whats ur second bet, tomorrow? lets hear it

[BernardMadoff]

This is what I don't get about some people. When did I ever say I was guaranteeing anything? I asked, can I do it?

You said, "No. I don't think you can." Which is fair.

So what's your offer?

Im giving you the option to pick the odds.

[StackinGreen]

LTA, I would be skeptical too.

Bernie, it might take a while.

That was the whole problem I had this year. I still bet games at lesser "advantage" but that's not a smart thing to do if you want to win this percentage type game. I'm still up this year, but it's obviously nowhere near my run from last year (what could be).

I have a good feeling about the playoffs. I agree, in general, the lines are tight. But they are every year. So nothing's changed.

[StackinGreen]

Im giving you the option to pick the odds.

If I were responding to another guy's thread who said, "I'm going to hit 78% of my next 23 picks," I'd say he'd have around a 5-10% chance, knowing nothing about him.

Is that what you were thinking? I like the challenge. I don't know if I'll do it, but I know I can do it.

[BernardMadoff]

Ok no money we'll just see if you can do it, good luck on this.

[Ab34]

yeah good luck man

[Love The Action]

I like the challenge. I don't know if I'll do it, but I know I can do it.

Anyone can do it. but it would be extremely rare. It could be a completely randon phenomena. However, the odds of you doing it are remote, especially based on your YTD. I like that you started the thread with a win from tonight's game rather than starting fresh. Always helps to have a head start

But I'm confused. First you said this:

Yeah, a weird year so far. Do you think it'll straighten out a bit or will this last until the playoffs?

But then you said this:

I have a good feeling about the playoffs. I agree, in general, the lines are tight. But they are every year. So nothing's changed.

So are you saying there is something "weird" about this season like you wrote in the one sentence or do you believe that this is a normal year as you stated in the other sentence.

I think the NFL and the inevitable variance has caught up with you just a bit after a great season last year. However, as your sample size expanded, the losses eventually came. That is why you will not go 18-5 for the rest of the year. You already had your big run for this particular sample of bets. Mathematically speaking, the odds of having two great runs like that within such a small sample as yours (i.e. under 100 games) is remote at best. Good luck though, I just don't see it happening. Who knows though, maybe Christmas will come early for you

[StackinGreen]

Yes, let's see.

LTA, would you call it random if I do in fact hit it?

I'll get it, it will just take time.

[Love The Action]

Yes, let's see.

LTA, would you call it random if I do in fact hit it?

I'll get it, it will just take time.

Nope, not necessarily. You asked whether it could be done and I responded affirmatively. Conceivably, one could go 18-5 by throwing darts and getting "lucky." In your case, I would say much less randomness is involved because of your previous record over the 50-60 game small sample. If you go on another run like 18-5, there would be less randomness involved this time and such a streak is to be more likely the result of "skill" than luck. Now all you need to do is win.

[StackinGreen]

k

Nope, not necessarily. You asked whether it could be done and I responded affirmatively. Conceivably, one could go 18-5 by throwing darts and getting "lucky." In your case, I would say much less randomness is involved because of your previous record over the 50-60 game small sample. If you go on another run like 18-5, there would be less randomness involved this time and such a streak is to be more likely the result of "skill" than luck. Now all you need to do is win.

Cheers brother, it's gonna happen. It will take a while.

People in the past have asked me, "Why don't you just stick to your top (TOP) plays?"

It's a good question. Feelings? As humans, we like to have entertainment/action, to a certain degree. There is a place for that if you aren't a horrible picker.

Should I just stick to the 15-20 bets per year that I feel I have a large advantage on? Probably.

[ijenpo]

If you play 23 games every week, you're bound to hit it.

If you say you want to hit 18-5 on you're first try, you're pushing it.

[shocktopme]

.

18-5...................M/L or spead or both???Thats tough either way!!!!!!!!Good luck

[visualrealism]

Get that $$$

[StackinGreen]

Good to see you Visual. Ijenpo,

I was called out and I need it to be on this run. 17 to go before I lose 6 ...

[StackinGreen]

18-5...................M/L or spead or both???Thats tough either way!!!!!!!!Good luck

Spread of course, bro. Or low risk teasers.

[StackinGreen]

I bet the Jacksonville/SD over on Monday and it hit, but even looking back couldn't possibly call that a top play. I'm just finishing my research up but I'll almost certainly have a play for tonight's game. Let's push it to 2-0 boys, when it matters most.

[StackinGreen]

CLE/PIT under 40

[StackinGreen]

Let me just tell you boys, I can sense it. It is StackinGreen's time. Enjoy the ride that is about to come.

[shocktopme]

.

[Coach Potato]

are you only playing your best plays stack?

[StackinGreen]

Yes sir

are you only playing your best plays stack?

Yes, I was called out and from here on out, I'm going to prove what I always meant to.

2-0. I need 16 more now before 5 losses, as detailed in the original post.

It's going to happen.

[Coach Potato]

Yes, I was called out and from here on out, I'm going to prove what I always meant to.

2-0. I need 16 more now before 5 losses, as detailed in the original post.

It's going to happen.

Good luck then . How many units do you play them at? Because they are you're top plays of the week do u play them all the same?

[StackinGreen]

Do whatever you think is best. But first, change that avatar.

[ClimbSomeRocks]

I doubt you can do it, but I'll be really impressed if you do. I'll probably start tailing because I definitely think you can hit 55% or higher

[visualrealism]

Man you really need to 18-0 to shut some people up. People stay hating..