Toddorts NFL 2011-2012 Season Picks

toddorts · 12-12-11, 12:47 AM

Another great Sunday! Record was 13-7-1, +5.27 units. For those of you wondering, no, I'm not really as good as this year's record makes me look.

Over the long haul, my record is much more typical of any pretty good NFL handicapper. Over the past three seasons (how long I've been tracking it), I've had a 57.14% winning percentage on sides, and 55.56% on totals. Definitely very profitable, but not nearly as profitable as this year's record would make it seem.

Record:

64-32-2
66.67%
+27.79 units

toddorts · 12-12-11, 04:27 PM

On tonight's game, I've got no play on sides. Some subjective factors would indicate that the Seahawks are the best play on the spread, but I never bet based on subjective factors. I'm a numbers guy. So I'm passing on the side. I'm feeling pretty good about a play on the total, though:

Rams @ Seahawks UNDER 38 -110

toddorts · 12-13-11, 12:10 AM

Close, but no cigar. Record for the night was 0-1, -1.0 unit.

Record:

64-33-2
65.98%
+26.79 units

toddorts · 12-15-11, 04:49 PM

Time for Thursday night football! A lot of people are worried about the spread on the Jaguars because of some injuries, but my formulas still figure them to cover this spread pretty easily. On the total, the under is about as close to a sure thing as you can find in NFL wagering. Note that that doesn't mean that it actually is a sure thing, so you shouldn't "go big" on it. There is no such thing as a true "sure thing" in any sports betting, so I'm a firm advocate of flat betting a percentage of your bankroll (preferably 1%) on every bet you make. The picks:

JAGUARS @ Falcons +14 -110
Jaguars @ Falcons UNDER 42 -108

toddorts · 12-16-11, 12:31 AM

And that's exactly why I say that there's no such thing as a sure thing.

Really surprised that the Falcons were able to put that many points on the board. Anyway, tonight's record was 0-2, -2.0 units. Remember, there's an additional game on Saturday night this week. Hopefully I do better then than I did tonight.

Record:

64-35-2
64.65%
+24.79 units

toddorts · 12-17-11, 04:57 PM

Ah, Saturday night football. Excellent, since I've had to work Sunday and Monday nights all month. This one is a bit close to call on both the side and the total, but my model has it worth a play on both. Heritage has the line on the total at 47.5, but most books have 47, which is still fine. Don't take 46.5, though. The picks:

Cowboys @ BUCS +7 -110
Cowboys @ Bucs UNDER 47.5 -108

toddorts · 12-17-11, 11:21 PM

Thought for a little while there that both bets may go down in flames, but turned out 1-1 for the night, -0.08 units.

Record:

65-36-2
64.36%
+24.71 units

toddorts · 12-18-11, 06:19 AM

Ok, football Sunday time! Here are the picks for the 1pm games. The picks for the later games will be posted early afternoon after I get some sleep.

Redskins @ Giants UNDER 46.5 -110
Redskins @ GIANTS -6 -110
Packers @ Chiefs UNDER 46 -108
Saints @ Vikings UNDER 53 -108
SAINTS @ Vikings -7.5 -108
Seahawks @ Bears OVER 35 -110
Seahawks @ BEARS -3.5 -108
Dolphins @ Bills UNDER 41 -110
Panthers @ Texans UNDER 45 -108
Panthers @ TEXANS -6 -108
Titans @ Colts UNDER 41.5 -110

toddorts · 12-18-11, 03:08 PM

Got a lot of plays today. Here are the late afternoon and night game picks:

Lions @ Raiders OVER 47.5 -110
LIONS @ Raiders -3 +110
Patriots @ Broncos OVER 47.5 -108
Jets @ Eagles OVER 44 -108
JETS @ Eagles +3 -110
Browns @ Cardinals UNDER 37 -108
BROWNS @ Cardinals +6 -108
Ravens @ Chargers OVER 44 -110
Ravens @ CHARGERS +2.5 -108

toddorts · 12-19-11, 12:41 AM

Pretty good day. And even better, Tebow got hammered by Brady and the Pats. Hopefully ESPN will now shut the hell up about Tebow already! Anyway, today's record was 12-7-1, +4.02 units.

Record:

77-43-3
64.17%
+28.73 units

toddorts · 12-19-11, 06:17 PM

Great game tonight for monday night football. The Rapist is playing, but he's injured. The lines seem to be factoring the injury pretty heavily, and I think overstating the effect of it. I still see the Steelers winning this game outright by maybe a field goal, so getting three points is a good play. The total is a closer call, but the injuries on both sides help, I think, so I'm comfortable with the under at 38. If all you can find is a 37.5, I'd be more hesitant, but I'd probably still take it. The picks:

STEELERS @ 49ers +3 -115
Steelers @ 49ers UNDER 38 -108

toddorts · 12-20-11, 12:50 AM

Mixed bag tonight at 1-1, -0.08 units.

Record:

78-44-3
63.93%
+28.65 units

toddorts · 12-22-11, 04:06 PM

I'm passing on tonight's game, both total and side. Going by pure numbers, as I always do, both are too close to call. If you're a subjective factors guy, then this game becomes too unpredictable. The Colts could be highly motivated to get a second win in a row, or they could just not care, since their season has basically been a waste. The Texans already have a playoff spot locked, so they could be playing lots of second and third string players. So, whether you like numbers or subjective criteria in making picks, this one isn't a good idea to play in my opinion. Just enjoy watching.

toddorts · 12-24-11, 07:06 AM

Football Saturday this week. Here are the picks for the 1pm games. The 4pm and later games will have picks posted early afternoon, as usual.

Raiders @ Chiefs OVER 42 -108
RAIDERS @ Chiefs +2.5 -103
Broncos @ Bills OVER 43 -108
Broncos @ BILLS +2.5 -103
Jaguars @ Titans UNDER 40 -108
Jaguars @ TITANS -7 -110
Cardinals @ BENGALS -4 -108
Dolphins @ Patriots OVER 50 -108
Dolphins @ PATRIOTS -9 -110
Browns @ Ravens UNDER 38.5 -108
Giants @ Jets OVER 47 -108
Giants @ JETS -3 +102
Bucs @ Panthers UNDER 47.5 -108

toddorts · 12-24-11, 03:18 PM

Time for the afternoon picks:

Chargers @ Lions UNDER 53 -110
49ers @ Seahawks UNDER 37.5 -108
49ers @ SEAHAWKS +2 -110
Eagles @ Cowboys OVER 50 -110
Eagles @ COWBOYS +1 -108

toddorts · 12-25-11, 02:47 AM

Well, basically a do-nothing day. Hopefully the next two nights will make up for it. Record for today was 8-8-2, -0.52 units.

Record:

86-52-5
62.32%
+28.13 units

toddorts · 12-25-11, 04:27 PM

Only one play on tonight's game. On sides, the spread is sharp, in my estimation. Only the total has value:

Bears @ Packers OVER 41.5 -108

toddorts · 12-26-11, 04:31 PM

Forgot to update the record after last night's game. It was 1-0, +0.93 units.

Record:

87-52-5
62.59%
+29.06 units

toddorts · 12-26-11, 04:33 PM

Should be a good game in New Orleans tonight, and I've got picks on both the side and total:

Falcons @ Saints UNDER 53 -108
Falcons @ SAINTS -7 -108

toddorts · 12-27-11, 05:50 PM

Forgot to update the record last night. Went 1-1, -0.07 units.

Record:

88-53-5
62.41%
+28.99 units

toddorts · 01-01-12, 06:55 AM

Alright, it's week 17. Time for the final week of the regular season. Here are the picks for the 1pm games, with the late afternoon games to follow around 2pm or so:

Redskins @ Eagles UNDER 45.5 -108
Redskins @ EAGLES -8 -108
49ers @ Rams OVER 35.5 -108
BEARS @ Vikings +2 -110
Lions @ Packers OVER 41.5 -108
Panthers @ Saints UNDER 55 -108
Panthers @ SAINTS -7 -110
Titans @ Texans OVER 39 -108
Titans @ TEXANS +1.5 -108
Jets @ Dolphins UNDER 39 -108
JETS @ Dolphins +3 -110
Bills @ Patriots OVER 49.5 -108

toddorts · 01-01-12, 02:53 PM

Man, lots of games with value today! Here are the rest of the picks:

Bucs @ Falcons OVER 45.5 -108
Bucs @ FALCONS -9.5 -108
Cowboys @ Giants OVER 47.5-108
Ravens @ Bengals OVER 37.5 -110
Steelers @ BROWNS +7 -108
Chargers @ Raiders UNDER 48.5 -108
CHARGERS @ Raiders +2.5 -103
Chiefs @ Broncos OVER 37.5 -108
Chiefs @ BRONCOS -2 -108
Seahawks @ Cardinals UNDER 40.5 -108
SEAHAWKS @ Cardinals +2.5 -108

toddorts · 01-02-12, 03:14 AM

Damn, that was a great way to end the season! This has been one hell of a great regular season for me. Let's hope it continues into the post-season. Even if it doesn't, I'll still be up significantly for the year, making for three straight winning seasons. I'm happy.

Record today was 16-7, +7.79 units.

Record:

104-60-5
63.41%
+36.78 units

toddorts · 01-07-12, 09:50 AM

Playoffs time! I'm really looking forward to it this year. Lots of good games ahead. After a great regular season, hopefully I can keep the streak going all the way through the postseason. Wish me luck! Here are the first postseason picks:

Bengals @ Texans OVER 38 -108
Bengals @ TEXANS -4 -108
Lions @ Saints UNDER 59.5 -110
Lion @ SAINTS -10.5 -108

toddorts · 01-08-12, 02:16 AM

A great start to the postseason! Went 3-1 for the day, +1.78 units.

Record:

107-61-5
63.69%
+38.56 units

toddorts · 01-08-12, 09:14 AM

Time for today's picks. Tougher calls than yesterday, but still plays on sides and totals for both games.

Falcons @ Giants OVER 47.5 -108
FALCONS @ Giants +3 -105
Steelers @ Broncos OVER 33.5 -108
Steelers @ BRONCOS +7.5 -108

toddorts · 01-09-12, 01:53 AM

Mixed result today at 2-2, -0.15 units.

Record:

109-63-5
63.37%
+38.41 units

toddorts · 01-14-12, 09:20 AM

Back to postseason football! I know everyone is focused on this Tebow game for some reason, and everyone wants some action on it, but frankly, the line is just too sharp. At a 13.5 spread, there isn't any value there. If you absolutely have to take someone, then I would lean towards the Broncos, but I really recommend avoiding a side and just sticking with the total where I think there is some value. Anyway, here are my picks for the day:

Saints @ 49ers UNDER 47 -108
SAINTS @ 49ers -3.5 -108
Broncos @ Patriots OVER 50 -110

toddorts · 01-15-12, 12:30 AM

Damn, Tebow got hammered! I didn't get to watch the game because I was working, but 45-10 is a lot worse than I figured it would be. Anyway, record for the night was 1-2, -1.09 units.

Record:

110-65-5
62.86%
+37.32 units

toddorts · 01-15-12, 08:50 AM

Here are today's picks. Should be two good games.

Texans @ Ravens OVER 36.5 -110
TEXANS @ Ravens +7.5 -108
Giants @ Packers OVER 53 -108
Giants @ PACKERS -7.5 -103

toddorts · 01-16-12, 01:02 AM

Mixed day at 2-2, -0.15 units.

Record:

112-67-5
62.57%
+37.17 units

toddorts · 01-22-12, 07:08 AM

Alright, time for the big day! Unfortunately, the 49ers/Giants game is too close to call on sides, but at least I could find some value on the total, so I've got plays on both games. I think the Patriots win by about 10, so the spread at -7 isn't too bad. Should be two good games. Here are the picks:

Ravens @ Patriots OVER 50 -110
Ravens @ PATRIOTS -7 -108
Giants @ 49ers OVER 41.5 -108

81_84 · 01-22-12, 08:25 AM

Been peeking in your thread all year. Very well done sir.

I like all your plays todays , Bol.

I think everyone is making to big a deal about the weather in SF.

toddorts · 01-23-12, 12:02 AM

Damn, bad day. Went 0-3, -3.0 units. Definitely two really good games, though.

Record:

112-70-5
61.54%
+34.17 units

toddorts · 02-04-12, 04:00 PM

The lines have settled down, and I don't think the odds are getting any better by tomorrow, so I'm going ahead and locking in my plays for the Super Bowl. Here they are:

Giants @ PATRIOTS -3 +100
Giants @ Patriots OVER 54 -108