Toddorts NFL 2011-2012 Season Picks

[toddorts]

Well, I've been posting all of my MLB and NHL plays, so I might as well post my NFL plays, too. Not much time before I have to go to work, so no big write-up, but my one play for the night's game:

Raiders @ Chargers UNDER 48 -105

Raiders @ Chargers

Couldn't find an edge on either side, but I see this one going under. My model puts both teams scoring between 17-27 points. Close, but it's the best play I can see on tonight's game.

[toddorts]

Well, the game went about as expected. Record for the night was 1-0, +0.95 units.

Record:

1-0
100%
+0.95 units

[toddorts]

Today's picks, with no time for write-ups:

Titans @ Panthers UNDER 46.5 -105
Redskins @ DOLPHINS -4 -108
Redskins @ Dolphins UNDER 37.5 -105
Texans @ Bucs OVER 45.5 -108
Bills @ Cowboys UNDER 48.5 -108
Steelers @ Bengals UNDER 41 -110
Broncos @ Chiefs OVER 42 -108
SAINTS @ Falcons PK -108
Saints @ Falcons UNDER 50 -110
CARDINALS @ Eagles +13.5 -108
Cardinals @ Eagles OVER 46.5 -110
Rams @ Browns UNDER 36.5 -108
Ravens @ Seahawks OVER 41 -108
Giants @ 49ers OVER 42.5 -110
PATRIOTS @ Jets +2 -108
Patriots @ Jets OVER 47 -110

[toddorts]

Damn, I wish everyday went that well. It was a really tough card on the spreads, so I had to resort to lots of totals, but they definitely turned out well. Record for the day was 11-4-1, +6.18 units.

Record:

12-4-1
75%
+7.13 units

[toddorts]

Let's see if I can keep the winning streak going. My one pick for tonight's game:

Vikings @ Packers UNDER 50 -108

Vikings @ Packers

Normally a 13 point spread would be a great opportunity to find value on the dog, but not in this game. I see 13 as being a very sharp spread, with my formulas coming up with 12. My model requires a 4 point overlay between my calculation and the posted line, so not even close to a play on the side. I do see a little bit of value on the total, though. I see the Packers getting around 28 points, maybe 31, so if they can keep the Vikings under 3 touchdowns, which my formulas figure as likely, then this one probably stays under 50.

[toddorts]

Well, couldn't continue the winning streak, unfortunately. Record for the night was 0-1, -1.0 unit.

Record:

12-5-1
70.59%
+6.13 units

[toddorts]

One play on tonight's game:

Jets @ Broncos OVER 40 -108

Jets @ Broncos

With a 6-7 point spread, this one is too close to call on sides. My model has the Jets winning this one by about a touchdown, so the spread is exactly where it should be. On the total, though, I'm pretty confident in the over. I see the Jets scoring between 24-31 points, while the Broncos get in the range of 17-24. Even if both teams score at the bottom of that projected range, then they still break 40. Unless these teams have really bad nights, then the over should be a pretty safe call.

[toddorts]

Really surprised at this one. I still can't stand Tebow, though. A few games do not an NFL quarterback make. Record for the night was 0-1, -1.0 units.

Record:

12-6-1
66.67%
+5.13 units

[toddorts]

No time for write-ups, but here are today's picks:

TITANS @ Falcons +6.5 -108
Titans @ Falcons UNDER 44.5 -110
Jaguars @ BROWNS -1 -108
Panthers @ Lions OVER 47.5 -108
Cowboys @ Redskins OVER 41.5 -108
SEAHAWKS @ Rams +3 -108
Seahawks @ Rams UNDER 40 -108
CHARGERS @ Bears +4.5 -108
Chargers @ Bears OVER 45 -108
EAGLES @ Giants +6 -108
Eagle @ Giants OVER 45 -108

[toddorts]

Another great football Sunday! Record for the day was 9-2, +6.31 units.

Record:

21-8-1
72.41%
+11.44 units

[toddorts]

Only pick on tonight's game is on the total:

Chiefs @ Patriots UNDER 46.5 -108

[toddorts]

I'm on a roll! Record tonight was 1-0, +0.93 units.

Record:

22-8-1
73.33%
+12.37 units

[toddorts]

Happy Thanksgiving! The picks for a great day of turkey and football:

Packers @ Lions UNDER 55.5 -110
Dolphins @ Cowboys UNDER 45 -108
DOLPHINS @ Cowboys +7 -108
49ers @ Ravens OVER 40 -108
49ers @ RAVENS -3.5 -105

[toddorts]

A great Thanksgiving, and a great day in football betting! Record for the day was 4-1, +2.71 units.

Record:

26-9-1
74.29%
+15.08 units

[toddorts]

Let's see if I can keep the streak going. My picks for the 1pm games, mostly on totals:

Cardinals @ Rams UNDER 40 -108
CARDINALS @ Rams +2.5 -108
Bills @ Jets OVER 42.5 -108
Browns @ Bengals UNDER 38.5 -110
Texans @ Jaguars OVER 37 -108
Panthers @ Colts UNDER 46.5 -108
Bucs @ Titans UNDER 44 -108
Vikings @ Falcons OVER 44 -108

[toddorts]

And the rest of my picks for the day:

Bears @ Raiders OVER 41 -108
BEARS @ Raiders +3 -115
Redskins @ Seahawks OVER 37.5 -108
Patriots @ Eagles OVER 50.5 -108
Broncos @ Chargers OVER 41.5 -110
Steelers @ Chiefs UNDER 41 -108

[toddorts]

Another good day in NFL betting. Record was 8-6, +1.4 units.

Record:

34-15-1
69.39%
+16.48 units

[toddorts]

Two picks tonight:

Giants @ Saints OVER 51 -108
Giants @ SAINTS -7 -110

[Decep7icon]

Thanks for the plays, Toddorts! Keep it up!

[toddorts]

No problem. Thankfully the NFL is making up for my bad season in the NHL so far.

Record:

36-15-1
70.59%
+18.32 units

[Eterno_Campeon]

Hey Toddorts,
What are you thinking for the Falcons at -2.5 and the Chargers at -2.5?

[toddorts]

Out on a cruise right now, so I won't be doing any numbers on the Sunday games until I get back home on Saturday. Just logging into the internet a few minutes a day while I'm out on the water. It gets a bit expensive otherwise.

[toddorts]

Took a moment away from my cruise to make a pick on tonight's game. Only the total has value, unfortunately. On sides, the Eagles are likely to win by about a field goal, so the posted spread is sharp. On the over, if you can't find a 43, then 43.5 is still good value.

Eagles @ Seahawks OVER 43 -108

[toddorts]

Another win! Record tonight was 1-0, +0.93 units.

Record:

37-15-1
71.15%
+19.25 units

[toddorts]

My first NFL picks for the day:

Titans @ Bills UNDER 43 -110
Chiefs @ Bears OVER 36 -108
Chiefs @ BEARS -7 -108
Bengals @ Steelers UNDER 43 -108
Jets @ Redskins OVER 38.5 -103
JETS @ Redskins -3 +110
Falcons @ Texans OVER 37.5 -108
Falcons @ TEXANS +2 -108
Panthers @ Bucs UNDER 47 -108
Broncos @ Vikings OVER 37 -108
Broncos @ VIKINGS +1 -105
Colts @ Patriots UNDER 49 -108

[toddorts]

The rest of my picks in the NFL today:

Lions @ Saints UNDER 54.5 -108
Lions @ SAINTS -8.5 -108
Rams @ 49ers OVER 38 -108
RAMS @ 49ers +14.5 -110
Cowboys @ Cardinals OVER 46 -110
Cowboys @ CARDINALS +4.5 -108
Packers @ Giants UNDER 54 -108
Packers @ GIANTS +7 +EV

[toddorts]

Well, the streak couldn't continue forever. Down just a bit for the day. Record was 10-10, -0.47 units.

Record:

47-25-1
65.28%
+18.78 units

[toddorts]

Picks for tonight's game:

CHARGERS @ Jaguars -3 -113
Chargers @ Jaguars OVER 38.5 -108

[toddorts]

Well, a good night tonight made up for a lackluster Sunday this week. Record for the night was 2-0, +1.81 units.

Record:

49-25-1
66.22%
+20.59 units

[toddorts]

Time for Thursday night football! My team, the Browns, are playing their second nationally televised game in a week! Don't see that too often with the Browns. Sure, they're almost certainly going to lose this game, but the spread makes this one interesting, as does the total. If you can't find +EV money on the spread (I got it at Bodog), then a normal dime line is still good value on this pick. My picks for tonight:

BROWNS @ Steelers +14 +EV
Browns @ Steelers UNDER 40 -108

[Decep7icon]

Thanks for the picks once again, toddorts! Hoping a good winning streak this weekend, cheers!

[toddorts]

Man, my Browns just can't pull out a win, even after The Rapist gets injured! But they still covered the spread, so I'm happy. Good night at 2-0, +1.93 units.

Record:

51-25-1
67.11%
+22.52 units

[NeverBackDown]

[toddorts]

Football Sunday again! Lots of good games today. Here are the picks for the 1pm games. I've got to get some sleep, but I should be up by 3pm to post picks for the later games.

COLTS @ Ravens +16.5 -108
Texans @ Bengals OVER 38 -108
TEXANS @ Bengals +3 -118
Chiefs @ Jets OVER 36 -108
Chiefs @ JETS -10.5 -108
Vikings @ Lions OVER 46 -108
Vikings @ LIONS -9.5 -108
Patriots @ Redskins UNDER 47.5 -105
PATRIOTS @ Redskins -7.5 -110
Falcons @ Panthers UNDER 47.5 -108
FALCONS @ Panthers -3 +112
Bucs @ Jaguars UNDER 41 -110
Bucs @ JAGUARS +3 -110

[toddorts]

Sorry for the late post on the later games. Here are the picks, though:

Raiders @ Packers OVER 49.5 -108
49ers @ Cardinals OVER 39 -110
Bears @ Broncos OVER 35.5 -108
BEARS @ Broncos +3 +102
Bills @ Chargers UNDER 49.5 -110
Giants @ Cowboys OVER 50 -110