The quickest $1600 I've made this year...

House · 10-09-11, 10:46 PM

dlunc3,I don't know did he.....I went 12 for 12 today with this trend,won on EVERY GAME.....lets ask him, leafs fan ..what game did ya bet on last week ....

tokio · 10-09-11, 10:51 PM

Was about to go in with the pac/falcons game but my book had it at 5:30. I was like hell no.

House · 10-09-11, 11:06 PM

I know,its scary.....But after we went 11 for 11 today with that trend,I said WTF and put over 800 on it to win 300.....it hit at 8 something on the Falcons TD....early winner

sirpicksalot · 10-10-11, 02:00 AM

Originally posted by leafsfan19

um I think it went like 5-9 last week?

It looks to me that it went 9-7 last week. but depending on the line say -165, betting to win $100 on each would put you in the red to the tune of -$255.
That said, if a bit more research is done to take out the teams that don't convert within 7:30 very often, and look at a few other trends, money can be made.
Nice plays today HOUSE

House · 10-10-11, 09:05 AM

sirpick,thats what I'm trying to say,we need to figure this out....

1.Indoor or Out
2.Rated Offense and Defense
3.Special teams
4.weather
5.style of offense ran by teams
6.teams that average the most points per game ...
7.Quarterbacks
8.teams with the most yards from scrimmage
9.DEFENSE
what else do you guys have......lets figure this out
Hey it was 9-7 last week,it was 12-0 this week....who didn't play this week?

Goodluck · 10-10-11, 11:16 AM

Great work House. I totally forgot about this and got smacked hard.
But to anyone whose wondering "is this guy for real?" theres his original link last week.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nfl-handicapping/1304069-ok-you-ready.html

House · 10-10-11, 11:41 AM

Thanks Goodluk,sorry you got smacked hard today,hopefully that changes next week.We really need to figure out how to cap this bet.....I think its a killer.

Last week I kinda got lucky,betting only the games I played last week...and I kinda blew it on the post (cause of drinking all day)

but there is something to this bet,how many times does something go 12 for 12 ....Just glad I saw it coming.....gotta start putting these in groups for parlays

House · 10-10-11, 12:41 PM

Just put this bet in again for tonight,based on big play guys on both sides here,the Bears special teams(great returners),but horrible defensive backs,make the Bears a good bet against a good passing team,to be scored on quick or to return a kickoff putting them in good starting field position...Detroit giving up early leads,but also scoring quick this year,they're last in the league in rushing ,so they throw it,this is a good team for this bet...I like it ......The bet is YES A TEAM WILL SCORE WITHIN THE FIRST 7:30.......205/100....I know its high,but what do you guys want for a bet that went 12 - 0 yesterday.....you have to pay to play...I guess the books feel they will score quick also....GL people

tj0421 · 10-10-11, 12:46 PM

My book has it at -180. I believe I might take this as well!

calmeat · 10-10-11, 12:46 PM

Hey House,
I like your thinking on this. I guess it would be similiar to what i did with MLB for no/Yes score 1st inning. Have you tracked them the weeks prior, do you have it available to share. I have an idea on one marker but cant go by this week since they have all hit need to see the losers in order to see the trends. Thanks

5 dimes has it at -180

tj0421 · 10-10-11, 12:53 PM

Is there a website or something you can go to in order to find statistics for stuff like this?

jimmcc01 · 10-10-11, 12:54 PM

House: you playing tonights game?

Looked over both teams past 8 games combined and that prop hit 7/8. The only No was CHI/NO on 9/18

CHI : score within 7:30
10/2 CAR @9:34 YES by CAR
9/25 GB @3:35 YES by GB
9/18 NO @6:66 NO
9/11 ATL @9:59 YES by CHI

CHI Offense: Ranked 31
CHI Total Points 94: Ranked 23
DET Defense: Ranked 29

DET : score within 7:30
10/2 DAL @9:28 YES by DAL
9/25 MIN @9:38 YES by MIN
9/18 KAN @10:50 YES by DET
9/11 TB @8:58 YES by DET

DET Offense: Ranked 21
DET Total Points 135: Ranked 7
CHI Defense: Ranked 25

Seems to warner a YES for tonight.

Also, can't find this prop on BetOnline, But available on 5Dimes.

jimmcc01 · 10-10-11, 01:01 PM

Looks like the prop is also available on Bodog as well, for -175

nato3713 · 10-10-11, 01:07 PM

Its available but you can't parlay it on bodog. Any sites that you can parlay team/player prop bets?

House · 10-10-11, 01:07 PM

Thats what Im talking about jimmcc01,thank you for that....we really need to start breaking it down like this and see how it goes....good sh!t

House · 10-10-11, 01:08 PM

nato,thats what Im looking for right now,if anyone finds it..please throw it up here....thank you

ccross2 · 10-10-11, 01:16 PM

BookMaker doesn't let you fwiw. I like this prop play though and am going to play it tonight. I also like the over at 47.

House · 10-10-11, 01:20 PM

Good luck ccross2,I hope we hit it again tonight.....lets get this

ccross2 · 10-10-11, 01:24 PM

I'll be looking for your thread for next Sunday's picks too.

BeBrave · 10-10-11, 01:47 PM

got it

au4040 · 10-10-11, 02:05 PM

My math may be a little off but it looks like this trend is 54-22 on the year. NOT. TOO. SHABBY.

Page Not Found

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AilHB57pK486dEVYTzdhUUkwNTg1d0hnT1psRUg3UGc&hl=en_US

Web word processing, presentations and spreadsheets

Note, I am accounting for ANY score - Touchdown, Field Goal, Safety, anything. If this is incorrect, please let me know.

au4040 · 10-10-11, 02:12 PM

These first 7:30 bets are not EV bets... so to say you put $200 on each and made a quick $1600 is a little off.
I've seen anywhere from -160 to -180.

jimmcc01 · 10-10-11, 02:33 PM

Originally posted by au4040

My math may be a little off but it looks like this trend is 54-22 on the year. NOT. TOO. SHABBY.

Page Not Found

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AilHB57pK486dEVYTzdhUUkwNTg1d0hnT1psRUg3UGc&hl=en_US

Web word processing, presentations and spreadsheets

Note, I am accounting for ANY score - Touchdown, Field Goal, Safety, anything. If this is incorrect, please let me know.

thanks for the spreadsheet.

Haven't used google docs before, can one add to it, is it open. I wanted to also look at other conditions, home/away, dome, offense defense....

House · 10-10-11, 02:36 PM

au4040,First off I never said anything about EV ..Second..To win $200 sir ,I should have made that more clear I guess....and thanks for those stats...good stuff....as far as the -160 to 180 ..I can handle that....I just need the edge on how to cap the yes games,that will also give me the no games...so we'll keep breaking it down...bottom line is ,it went 12 -0 Sunday and like you said 54 and 22 I like those odds...can you post the 22 that didn't hit this year...just curious...if not its cool ...but thanks again...lets get this...my bad ..thanks for the spread sheet

jimmcc01 · 10-10-11, 02:40 PM

Originally posted by au4040

These first 7:30 bets are not EV bets... so to say you put $200 on each and made a quick $1600 is a little off.
I've seen anywhere from -160 to -180.

Doesn't seem off. If he bet 200 for 12 games = 2400. If the average line is -160, wouldn't that make it
Bet 2400 to win 1440?? There probably were a few games with better than -160 to bring it to 1600.
is that right?

rainmaker82 · 10-10-11, 02:42 PM

I am on it tonight as well. Let's make some cash!!

Greyraptor · 10-10-11, 02:53 PM

Just to throw it up, BETUS has the prop...Score in first SIX minutes and it is at -120. Not the 7 minutes that you are getting, but I like the odds. Also, cannot parlay any prop bets.

calmeat · 10-10-11, 03:08 PM

House,
One thing i would look at for no score first inning would the the O/U for the game and for the 1st 5 innings. With that idea i would say we can also look at game O/U and first half O/U or 1st quarter O/U. Just something to add into it. you can look at the past ones and see how it all matches up. Find the O/U that mainly hits your goal and use that as a marker.
For example
Just looking at past weeks from week 3 to today
if the total O/U is over 50 then it is 7-0
if the total O/U is over 45 then it is 10-3

House · 10-10-11, 03:15 PM

m.betdsi has it at 7:30.....yeah GRap , no parlays,got it......how you doing?Who do you like tonight?...I'm on the Lions -6 parlayed to the over........Lions straight up..........I also put half of what I put on the Lions straight up on a teaser + 15 Bears Over 39 .......I think the Lions win from 7-14 points tonight...lets see what happens boys...lets get this!!!

House · 10-10-11, 03:19 PM

Dam Calmeat,thats beautiful.....thank you for that ...I' wanna break down the season from week one real quick ...thanks again bro...good stuff

au4040 · 10-10-11, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by jimmcc01

thanks for the spreadsheet.

Haven't used google docs before, can one add to it, is it open. I wanted to also look at other conditions, home/away, dome, offense defense....

Google Docs can be open to the public but then people can go in and delete and mess with. I'll try to add as much info as I can get. Maybe everyone should take a week or maybe a couple teams and do their research then I can add back in. Looks like a very promising trend, hopefully not too much attributed to early-season no-film-to-study defenses. Props to House, wish I had seen this thread earlier.

au4040 · 10-10-11, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by calmeat

House,
One thing i would look at for no score first inning would the the O/U for the game and for the 1st 5 innings. With that idea i would say we can also look at game O/U and first half O/U or 1st quarter O/U. Just something to add into it. you can look at the past ones and see how it all matches up. Find the O/U that mainly hits your goal and use that as a marker.
For example
Just looking at past weeks from week 3 to today
if the total O/U is over 50 then it is 7-0
if the total O/U is over 45 then it is 10-3

Going back now to add the O/U to the spreadsheet. May have some interesting results...........

jimmcc01 · 10-10-11, 03:31 PM

may be doubling the work here, but I started a spreadsheet with more info.

may add more items as well.

Page Not Found

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnmalhSnIBnFdFBZWnJYeVRTcVYxNi1xS05XQUpyMkE&hl=en_US

Web word processing, presentations and spreadsheets

House · 10-10-11, 03:53 PM

jimmcc,thats awesome....check it out ,even when the Bears game didn't cover the YES ,it happened 40 seconds later......keep it coming you guys...

Greyraptor · 10-10-11, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by House

m.betdsi has it at 7:30.....yeah GRap , no parlays,got it......how you doing?Who do you like tonight?...I'm on the Lions -6 parlayed to the over........Lions straight up..........I also put half of what I put on the Lions straight up on a teaser + 15 Bears Over 39 .......I think the Lions win from 7-14 points tonight...lets see what happens boys...lets get this!!!

House, you da man! I am doing ok, but had a rough weekend going 3-5. Got screwed on the Giants losing to Seattle and Nebraska failed to cover because they friggin kneeled down with a minute to go instead of giving it to Rex Burkhead from the ten yard line. Should have known Bo Pellini wasn't going to do that to his old team.
Anyway, I hadn't made my pick for tonight but was leaning on under but now, may tease Detroit with the under. I see a 24-20 type game. Maybe 27-17. So, because I am not getting the 7:30 and I would have to go with 6:00, should I still go with a score before 6:00? That seems kind of soon. My book isn't giving me 7:30 minutes though unfortunately but in exchange I get a better price.