Bears -1 (-115) x2
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good for you. i only went 1u on the game, but not because of that line move earlier in the week. i had a large loss on over ne so i just wanted to go light tonight. i would have went about 3x had i won that game.Originally posted by suicidekings
mark your calendar for when chi goes to minny - they will avenge this loss, esp if the rookie has some games under his belt. mcnabb is toast...Comment -
10/17
Dolphins ML (+312) x1Comment -
It was a good game. I had a big loss on the Saints earlier so it was nice to end the night on a positive note as well.Originally posted by Dexter
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with all the things you usually write about matchups, I don't understand this. Would wish you luck but I have way more than $100 riding on Jets MLOriginally posted by suicidekingsCause Sleep is the Cousin of DeathComment -
You do know that his 1x may equal a lot more than $100....Originally posted by Goat Milk
Why in the world would you bet such an expensive ML on this game where the Jets could easily be upset? And that question is coming from a guy on the Jets -6.5....Comment -
Goat Mush played some 2-team parlays.Originally posted by Love The ActionComment -
Good luck tonight....
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Because I feel this game should be more like Jets -3.5 and a +312 ML offers a lot of flexibility, unless NY were to take off in this game early. However, even at their best, that's just not the Jets style. That TD return was unfortunate following a no-call on Revis... but we'll see if the Jets can manufacture offense of their own to build that lead or if the Miami defense can clamp down on a terrible Jets offense. I suspect this game will be a close one, at least through the first half. Value play.Originally posted by Goat MilkComment -
Thank you sir.Originally posted by Love The ActionGood luck tonight....
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Brandon Marshall with all the room in the world on the sideline and stumbles out of bounds...
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Strictly speaking, hitting 39% on the season after 62 plays is just as unlikely as hitting 61%... Small consolation, but I'm an optimist.Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Texans ML (+166) x1
Even banged up, I like the Texans here to step up in this key division game. I feel like this game is a coinflip.Comment -
KC +6 (-108) x1Originally posted by suicidekings
I don't even know how I feel about this line, but I know this line is not correct.Comment -
Bears ML (-110) x1Originally posted by suicidekings
Jets ML (+105) x1
Seahawks ML (+171) x0.5
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Jets ML (+175) x0.5Originally posted by suicidekings
Composite line: Jets ML (+128) x1.5Comment -
LIVE (10-6 Falcons, 10:52 2Q):
Lions pk (-105) x2
The Lions have done everything wrong so far, and the Falcons have not really capitalized. I like Detroit to tighten up their game and shut Atlanta down.Comment -
After Rivers interception, (3:57 4Q, 24-21 Jets)Originally posted by suicidekings
SD ML (+387) x0.375
Jets win: +1.55u
SD win: -0.05uComment -
MIN ML (+464) x0.5Comment -
3-3 (+1.55u)Originally posted by suicidekings
Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
MIN 2H ML (+423) x0.25Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
Gl on that Viking ML play SK.
Talking about ML play, I hit this play yesterday on CFB..............LOL +3750
9347096310/23/11 1:28am$375.00$340.05Wager Won93276088-2$10.00$375.00
Win10/22/11 8:00pm Reduced Football 365 Texas Tech +3750* vs OklahomaComment -
That original ML was always going to be a hedge if the Vikes got ahead and then I balked on GB 2H -7 and the line moved on me so I laid off... Another situation where I thought I was being smart by changing my plan on the flyOriginally posted by darkenergy
Nice hit on Texas Tech! that's huge.Comment -
I did so bad in all early games yesterday, so afternoon games I decided to fade couple of top 5 ranking team, which I play TXT, Michigan St. and Tenn, throwing there $10 a piece on ML as lottery ticket and two of them came through.
I begin to scare of football man. For the last two weeks, I did so well on NHL during the weekdays, then come Saturdays and Sundays I gave back all plus more.
This week I managed not to go hyper on football, and I THINK I be able to collect some from my local.
Make around $175 so far on 1:00pm games, here are two play left at
Pending7 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 9½fb & 6½bk
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 403 Washington Redskins/Carolina Panthers Over 35 *
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 404 Carolina Panthers +7 * vs Washington Redskins
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 405 San Diego Chargers/New York Jets Over 33½ *
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 411 Denver Broncos/Miami Dolphins Over 32 *
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 413 Atlanta Falcons/Detroit Lions Over 37 *
Pending10/23/11 4:05pm NFL Football 415 Kansas City Chiefs/Oakland Raiders Under 52 *
Pending10/23/11 4:05pm NFL Football 417 Pittsburgh Steelers/Arizona Cardinals Over 35½ *
and this
Pending6 Team Teaser (ties push) Teaser tp 11½fb & 8½bk
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 402 Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12½ * vs Chicago Bears
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 405 San Diego Chargers +11½ * vs New York Jets
Win10/23/11 1:00pm NFL Football 411 Denver Broncos +10½ * vs Miami Dolphins
Pending10/23/11 4:05pm NFL Football 417 Pittsburgh Steelers/Arizona Cardinals Over 33 *
Pending10/23/11 4:15pm NFL Football 421 Green Bay Packers +½ * vs Minnesota Vikings
Pending10/23/11 8:30pm NFL Football 423 Indianapolis Colts +26½ * vs New Orleans SaintsComment -
My last 2 weeks were brutal. Everything I touched went bad, ranging from unlucky bounces to my teams fully getting blown out. I definitely felt back on my game this week.Comment -
1-2 (+0.25u)Originally posted by suicidekingsComment -
WEEK 8
Patriots -1.5 (-111) x2.5
SF -8.5 (-103) x2.5Comment -
line is up to 2.5 already on bookmaker so a good sign for you. Question:Originally posted by suicidekings
How do you think the situation/matchup favors NE? Seems like a revenge spot for PITT, so i decided to lay off it but you put 2.5x on it so I would love to hear what you have to say about it. You seem pretty spot on latelyComment -
Honestly, I did zero handicapping before buying. I just knew the line would move and worst case scenario I could buy out of it easily. I haven't updated my database for this weekends games yet, but based on last weeks numbers before considering the Pats bye, I have them at dead even when playing at Heinz.Originally posted by dontbuythehook
However, now that I've looked at it more, the thing that I really like about NE here is that when you break down the games Pittsburgh has played this season, they just haven't faced any top tier QBs. Their #1 pass defense is misleading. Here's who they've played and where I rank the team's pass offense:
BAL - Flacco (13) - PIT got completely overwhelmed in this game, and Flacco is really just average.
SEA - Tavares Jackson (26) - This guy is awful and his team is bottom 5
IND - Collins/Painter (28) - No explanation necessary
HOU - Schaub (11) - They did a good job with Schaub, but he was happy to let Foster beat them on the ground, only throwing 21 passes.
TEN - Hasselback (9) - Tennessee is so one dimensional it's painful to watch. They're just not a threat on the ground so you can cheat towards defending the pass and stop them. Houston proved that again today.
JAC - Gabbert (32) - Gabbert is young and not exceptional. JAC has the least productive passing game in the NFL.
ARI - Kolb (16) - Kolb racked up the yards today, putting up 272, which is the most PIT has allowed all year, but ARI's passing game is midrange.
So 3 midrange and 3 horrible passing teams have made Pittsburgh's pass defense look amazing, and when we see Tom Brady come to town, I really think that he's going to overpower Pittsburgh's secondary. In addition to having the #1 pass offense, New England can run the ball as well (#8 in rushing) so with a balanced attack that also features a high powered QB, I think Pittsburgh's defense gets exposed in this game.
At the other end, New England gives up a lot of yards of offense, but they've been very much a bend-don't-break defense in recent years, and if you skim through their opponent's drive logs, they're pretty good at shutting down opponents. In their last game, in 10 scoring drives, Romo only managed 1 TD, despite being one of the better QBs in the NFL (Dallas is 4th in passing offense). Overall, NE is 5th is opponent yards per point, so even facing another capable QB in Big Ben, I feel like NE has a decent edge here and I expect the market to continue backing me in this position. It's already moved to -3 in places now.Comment -
This is the best bet on the board for next week. Cleveland's biggest strength as a team is their pass defense, and SF ranks 30th in pass offense, BUT, San Fransisco really doesn't need to have a strong passing game to win because their team's offense is built around controlling the line of scrimmage through a powerful running game (Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter) and an extremely physical defensive line / linebackers corps that make it very tough for opponents to establish the running game themselves, thereby forcing them into one-dimensional play. Jim Harbaugh has these guys playing his style of football, where field position and high efficiency are key. SF is #1 in scoring offensive efficiency this season in the NFL (10.8 yards per point).Originally posted by suicidekings
At the other end, Cleveland cannot run the ball (30th), and cannot stop the run (27th). They're the polar opposite of the Niners in their inability to control the line of scrimmage. Cleveland still depends heavily on passing (65% of Browns plays are passing plays, 2nd in the NFL) but their productivity been poor this year with only a 56% completion rate (28th). Part of this is McCoy's inconsistency, but he doesn't have a lot of options to throw to. He's getting good pass protection overall so even though he's not being hurried, he's just not making the passes. The Browns leading WR is a rookie, Greg Little with 25 catches on the season. Also, Peyton Hillis' numbers are down this season and the Browns overall lack of depth is a becoming more and more apparent, even today against a soft Seahawk team.
I expect SF to brutalize the Browns here, playing them just like they played the Lions, forcing McCoy to make throws under pressure and prioritizing field position. I feel like this line should be double digits and I'm happy to take the -8.5 with confidence.Comment -
Great analysis SK. I just refuse to play it because of the revenge factor, and I believe PITT may have taken the last few weeks not as serious just marking this game on their calendar. However, given what you pointed out with statistics to back it you definitely grabbed some value on your line and beat the market by a nice amount too. I really was more interested by your SF/CLE analysis though. I marked CLE as a great play here and would have set CLE @ +6 to +6.5 here. I feel like CLE's style counters SF with great defense and getting 8.5 here would be a pretty good bet. You really mapped it out well though and I will most likely just forget about CLE here without regrets. I do remember last year during NBA when you took the Suns over HOU when they were like -5.5 and it was a big play for you - Granted they didn't cover, however Suns definitely came to play that game given their huge 4th quarter comeback by Hakeem Warick and Vince Carter both breaking 30 points and all. Keep it up man, you're definitely appreciated here.Comment -
Database updated and numbers run for next weeks games. I get NE -3.5 and 54.5 for this game as fair lines.Originally posted by dontbuythehookComment -
so would you like the ovr n.engl 50' then?Comment -
I post the totals sometimes, but I rarely play them because I just don't have an intuitive grasp on them. Love The Action is the guy to talk to about totals as he really gets them. I find my numbers tend to come out a little higher than the books, so the margin is probably not very big for this game.Originally posted by Luv2Play2Comment -
LIVE (3-0 JAC, 8:38 2Q)
BAL -3.5 (-116) x0.5
Jacksonville D has looked good, but their offense has done nothing.Comment
