Suicidekings 2011 NFL Thread

[suicidekings]

Keeping it simple to start, with all 1 unit plays for the first few weeks.

Week 1

Panthers +7 (-109)

The Panthers were terrible last season, true. But the Cardinals were also awful, with horrible defense against the running game in particular. This is good for Cam Newton, as that's where his strength lies. Also, if Newton takes advantage of Shockey and Olsen at the TE position, he can be effective in moving the ball without feeling pressured to attempt long passes. The poor preseason showing has to be taken with a grain of salt. The Cards are an excellent first opponent for Newton and the Panthers to build some confidence and work to improve on last season's disaster.

Buccaneers ML (-120)

The Lions are getting too much love. These are two teams with potential that have yet to prove themselves, and I like Tampa in this spot to take control in their home opener.

Eagles -4 (-110)

Let's just say I'm buying the Eagles 100% this season. I feel like they should be favoured by a touchdown here, and like them to assert themselves early in this game.

Leans: Chargers -8.5, Jets -4, Steelers ML

[No coincidences]

Good luck my friend.

[suicidekings]

Good luck my friend.

Here's to a great season for both of us.

[No coincidences]

Here's to a great season for both of us.

Looking forward to it.

Sick of baseball.

[suicidekings]

Looking forward to it. Sick of baseball.

Every year I make an honest attempt to cap and follow baseball, but by the end of May I've lost enthusiasm for it. I've been eagerly awaiting the return of football since the NBA finals ended, as have a lot of us, I think.

[suicidekings]

9/8: Live Betting (7-0 for GB in 1Q)

Saints +10 (-120) x1
Saints ML (+450) x0.25

[7secondsOrLess]

very sexy avatar sk

[suicidekings]

very sexy avatar sk

She inspires my capping. I figured hotter = better results.

Good luck this season, buddy.

[suicidekings]

9/8: Live Betting (7-0 for GB in 1Q)

Saints +10 (-120) x1
Saints ML (+450) x0.25

YTD: 1-1 (+0.75u)

Following this strong performance tonight, I LOVE the Saints to absolutely murder the Bears next week. Hopefully Chicago impresses against the Falcons this week so as to give us a better line on NO in Week 2.

[suicidekings]

Week 1

Panthers +7 (-109) x1
Buccaneers ML (-120) x1
Eagles -4 (-110) x1

YTD: 2-2-1 (+0.55u)

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Saints -7 (+105) x3
Falcons -1 (+130) x1
Titans +6.5 (-111) x1

[suicidekings]

MNF (Live @ End of 1Q, 7-7)

Miami +10.5 (-115) x1
Miami ML (+500) x0.25

[suicidekings]

MNF (Live @ End of 1Q, 7-7)

Miami +10.5 (-115) x1
Miami ML (+500) x0.25

4th & goal... what a pathetic play call.

Edit: and then a wasted TO and terrible clock management to close the game out.

0-2 (-1.4u)
YTD: 2-4-1 (-0.85u)

[suicidekings]

MNF Gm 2 (3-0 Denver, 5:48 1Q)

DEN -4.5 (-101) x1

[suicidekings]

MNF Gm 2 (3-0 Denver, 5:48 1Q)

DEN -4.5 (-101) x1

****...

[suicidekings]

MNF Gm 2 (3-0 Denver, 5:48 1Q)

DEN -4.5 (-101) x1

YTD: 2-5-1 (-1.86u)

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Saints -7 (+105) x3
Falcons -1 (+130) x1
Titans +6.5 (-111) x1

Adding:

Saints -6.5 (-108) x3 (For a total of x6 on the Saints)

[No coincidences]

My only three plays as well SK.

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Saints -7 (+105) x3
Saints -6.5 (-108) x3
Falcons -1 (+130) x1
Titans +6.5 (-111) x1

Chargers +7 (-113) x1
Chargers -3.5 (+404) x0.5

[suicidekings]

Week 2

Saints -7 (+105) x3
Saints -6.5 (-108) x3
Titans +6.5 (-111) x1
Chargers +7 (-113) x1
Chargers -3.5 (+404) x0.5
Falcons -1 (+130) x1 (pending)

3-2 (+5.52u), 1 pending

Adding:

Falcons +2.5 (+103) x2

[suicidekings]

Week 3

Saints -4 (-105) x3
Bengals -2.5 (-104) x1
Lions -4 (+102) x1
JAC/CAR Over 41.5 (-105) x2

[No coincidences]

3-2 (+5.52u), 1 pending

Adding:

Falcons +2.5 (+103) x2

Nice big Saints hit SK! I felt like you and I were the only ones left on them after the big line move this morning....

[suicidekings]

Nice big Saints hit SK! I felt like you and I were the only ones left on them after the big line move this morning....

I love when the forum in general (public) has consensus plays. It makes me feel GREAT when I'm on the other side.

I'd say 99% of the time, the line matters when assessing a play. This game fell into that last 1%. It was all about a team that expects to be playing for the superbowl later this year trying to get back on track after the GB loss. The Bears had no chance today.

And on that note, I totally forgot to place my Saints to win the SB future that I was going to do this morning...

[suicidekings]

Saints -7 (+105) x3
Saints -6.5 (-108) x3
Titans +6.5 (-111) x1
Chargers +7 (-113) x1
Chargers -3.5 (+404) x0.5
Falcons -1 (+130) x1
Falcons +2.5 (+103) x2

Week 2: 5-2 (+8.88u)
YTD: 7-7-1 (+7.02u)

[suicidekings]

New Orleans Saints to win the Superbowl (+1500) x2.5

The Saints have a lot going for them this season. They were statistically one of the best teams in the NFL last year and improved their squad for 2011. They have a fairly soft schedule and I project a 12-13 win season to win their division as the Falcons fall to 10-11 wins in 2011.

At Pinnacle last week the line was +1650, this week it opened at +1500 and after I placed my bet it dropped down to the current +1400. The Saints match up well against the Texans this week and then get Jacksonville and Carolina in Weeks 4/5, Tampa Bay, Indy, St Louis, Tampa again, and then the Falcons heading into their bye week. They should be 7-3/8-2 after this stretch and I foresee their future odds dropping steadily over this period.

[suicidekings]

Week 3

Saints -4 (-105) x3
Bengals -2.5 (-104) x1
Lions -4 (+102) x1
JAC/CAR Over 41.5 (-105) x2

Adding:

Bengals -1 (-110) x1 (for a total of x2)
Eagles -7.5 (-110) x1
Saints -3.5 (+105) x2 (for a total of x5)

I might seem heavy on the Saints right now, but early in the season, I expect the Saints to do very well ATS and for the lines to get steeper on them. I would place this line at Saints -6. Even though the Texans have a solid offense, the Saints D is very good. At the other end, Brees has the capacity to pick apart even the best defensive units, and the Texans are just average in this regard. I expect Houston to have a lot more trouble today establishing their ground game than they did vs IND/MIA.

[suicidekings]

Eagles -7.5 (-110) x1

Adding Live (9:52 3Q, 14-13 NYG)

Eagles -3.5 (+100) x1

[suicidekings]

Live Bet (7:37 1Q, 7-0 GB)

Bears +10 (-108) x2

[suicidekings]

SNF

PIT/IND Under 39.5 (-107) x1

[suicidekings]

Week 3

Saints -4 (-105) x3
Saints -3.5 (+105) x2
Bengals -2.5 (-104) x1
Bengals -1 (-110) x1
Lions -4 (+102) x1
JAC/CAR Over 41.5 (-105) x2
Eagles -7.5 (-110) x1
Eagles -3.5 (+100) x1
Bears +10 (-108) x2
PIT/IND Under 39.5 (-107) x1

Week 3: 2-7-1 (-3.31u)
YTD: 9-14-2 (+3.71u)

[suicidekings]

MNF

Live Bet (3-0 WAS, 10:06 1Q): Cowboys -3 (-104) x2

[suicidekings]

Week 4

Raiders +6.5 (-111) x2
Chiefs ML (+144) x1
Cardinals ML (+104) x1

Also leaning CIN, CHI and PIT, and think the Colts could very well get their first win this week

[dontbuythehook]

0-3 inc

[suicidekings]

Week 4

Raiders +6.5 (-111) x2
Chiefs ML (+144) x1
Cardinals ML (+104) x1

6.5 Point Teaser

Saints -2.5
Bengals +9.5
Chiefs +9.5
Cardinals +7.5
Chargers -0.5
Packers -5.5

1u to win 6u

[suicidekings]

Live Bet (4:05 1Q, 7-0 Texans):

Steelers +6.5 (+105) x1

----------------------------

Live Bet (10:19 2Q, 7-0 Texans, PIT ball @ PIT 5):

Steelers +7.5 (-120) x1