2011 NFL Pro Picks with John Ryan

[John Ryan]

I believe this is critical info for those looking at the Jets/Egales game and we could certainly expect some line movement late on this game pending the result of the early Washington/Giants result. If the Giants win the Eagles are out of the playoff race. With an already 1-5 record they could be completely unfocused at game time and we already know the Jets need the win in the worse way.

For the miracle Eagle playoff hopes should the Redskins win:
The Eagles need to finish the season 3-0 against the Jets, Cowboys and Redskins.
The Cowboys need to finish the season 0-2 against the Eagles and Giants.
The Giants need to lose to the Redskins and Jets, but beat the Cowboys.

To recap, here's how the Eagles can be mathematically eliminated from the playoff race altogether on Sunday. One of the following two scenarios would have to play out:

The Giants beat the Redskins AND the Lions beat the Raiders.
(OR) The Giants beat the Redskins AND the Eagles lose to the Jets.


The total could move on this game and we could also see Vick suddenly pulled form the starting lineup if the Giants win. Stay Tuned.

[John Ryan]

Three 5* Plays for this afternoon:

5* play taking the Colts +7 -110 against the Titans
5* play 'UNDER KC/GB with a posted total of 46 1/2 -110 (Sports Interaction)
5* play on Minnesota +8 1/2 playing the Saints.

I know these are 'ugly' dogs, but again I release these because of undaunted faith in my work and my proven simulator.
I also think an attractive long shot parlay is to take the Vikings and Colts and parlay them using the MONEY LINE for 1.5* amount. Low risk and very high return.

[spippen]

Well Saints have a big match up with Atl Monday night. So maybe Saints will not give an A+ effort in this game. Seahawks may be worth a shot with Bears next match up with Packers. GL on your plays.

[repski]

John,
I believe the eagles still have an outside shot @ wildcard....and that will not be decided until the outcome of the 4:30 games

[justwinthisone]

What do u think of tebo mania vs pats?

[John Ryan]

What do u think of tebo mania vs pats?

I personally think you will see Tebow throw 40 times. He did last week and he has a huge advantage in the TE against the Patriots. I also think Brady will tear up the Broncos secondary. think the Patriots win... and for a lean I do like New England.

[John Ryan]

John,
I believe the eagles still have an outside shot @ wildcard....and that will not be decided until the outcome of the 4:30 games

If Detroit and the Giants win, the the Eagles are out of the playoffs and eliminated. Detroit does play at 4:05, but clearly the number of playoff mathematical possibilities is diminished significantly with a Giants win. Their chances for the wild card are very close to nill... Now, I am not rooting against the Eagles, but was trying to bring attention to possible line movements and even second half betting opportunities for the Eagles game.

[John Ryan]

Well Saints have a big match up with Atl Monday night. So maybe Saints will not give an A+ effort in this game. Seahawks may be worth a shot with Bears next match up with Packers. GL on your plays.

Saints are vulnerable here.. you are correct.. Brees has huge mismatches on a paper, but if they can continue to execute is a completely different story.

[illios]

4pm plays at all?

[Lick496]

how about tonights game?

[John Ryan]

Hello all. No play tonight. Look forward to opportunity for the second half depending on the tone of the first half.

Colts wins! Good for them! No team show go winless, not even in Pop Warner!!!

[illios]

Hello all. No play tonight. Look forward to opportunity for the second half depending on the tone of the first half.

Colts wins! Good for them! No team show go winless, not even in Pop Warner!!!

Good job going 2-1 on those picks. I didn't have the courage to bet on those besides Minnesota and of course I pick the losing one. But I didn't pick Washington so I broke even besides commission. Had a good afternoon going 3-0 with NE, eagles, Oakland!
Hoping you have a 2nd half. I'm going with San diego!

[chief42]

anything for the second half? do you have any leans for this game regardless if you have a 2nd half pick?

[rexieboy]

My 49er$

I love my 49er$ tonight.

[tommyminh]

My6Sen what ya think about tonight ?nghie noi thang quater cua pitt get injurie.

[jjaycuny]

John any play tonight?

[John Ryan]

ok. Folks: let's see what happens tonight. I have a rare 20* Titan Total UNDER. Please bet it accordingly. These are very rare an reliable opportunities. They are NOT guaranteed to win. Nor is anyone's assessment and opinion on anything including the stock market and who will end up being President. Laugh..

But this is a strong play that I am obviously confident will win.

[John Ryan]

One factor that I see is the fact that 49ers are top defense in the redzone and worst offensively in the red zone - or nearly the worst. They play to win and know they can settle for field goals with the tremendous defense they possess. Roethlisberger is not near 100% and 49ers are very strong bringing heat form the edges - especially from his blind side. Watch the Steelers left tackle tonight. He will have his hands full trying to just react to if the blitz is coming or if it is not. I like the 49ers ground game against the Steelers defensive front. This will minimize the blitzes and give the 49ers ample opportunity using play action for ball control-type pass plays. A lot on the line for both teams and both will want to stay close, minimize mistakes and assignments and have a chance to win the fourth quarter. Another scenario si that one of these teams gets off to a 14 point lead and then the game will become and NHL one.. where the leading team will just sit back and prevent and big plays and force the opponent into predictable patterns and routes.

As always share your thoughts. BOL to everyone adn hopefully this will be early Christmas present for all of you.

[BuckeyeMike]

John what # did you get the under at? How do you feel about betting San Francisco money line at -135?

[5mike5]

than you mr. ryan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

appreciated as always and im all over it

[John Ryan]

John what # did you get the under at? How do you feel about betting San Francisco money line at -135?

37 1/2 -103 at Five Dimes.

[John Ryan]

than you mr. ryan!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

appreciated as always and im all over it

cool. Just don't bet over your head and that is for everyone. It's not worth it. Stay disciplined. this is like making FOUR 5* best on the same play; that is all it is.. it is not gold at the end of the rainbow.

I would not be surprised to see this line go off at 38 points. SF has been opening up the offense the past few weeks and throwing more vertical routes. So, if can watch the line; try and get the 38. Based on the sim, if I am right, these plays normally cover by seven or more points, but it does not hurt to try to get the best possible line!

[5mike5]

cool. Just don't bet over your head and that is for everyone. It's not worth it. Stay disciplined. this is like making FOUR 5* best on the same play; that is all it is.. it is not gold at the end of the rainbow.

I would not be surprised to see this line go off at 38 points. SF has been opening up the offense the past few weeks and throwing more vertical routes. So, if can watch the line; try and get the 38. Based on the sim, if I am right, these plays normally cover by seven or more points, but it does not hurt to try to get the best possible line!

i just went with 4x the regular trhat i would on 5* like you said

nothing is a definite by any means, but some are worth the bigger risk and u said

your input is appreciated very much in this thread by the people that understand that winning over a season is the main goal and being disiplined

[BuckeyeMike]

Thanks John.

[John Ryan]

I was just informed that Big Ben may not play. They have about 30 minutes to decide. But, was told that he is hobbling around like an old man and can barely throw the ball. Now, this could be gamesmanship of course, and we all know an little doctor injection can be the cure all for 60 minutes of football. But, this seems to be a very reliable report. Let's see what happens. That total may gone pretty fast, I think, if he is declare ineligible... has anyone heard anything? anything from the Twitter ranks?

[5mike5]

i just saw the tape on NFL32 of him warming up and it looked very vert bad...limping and hobbling and grimicing on
every throw he made

glad i got that 37.5 already

[Monitor-Tan]

John one thing to point, a mobile QB can put up just as many if not more points then a really messed up Big Ben and sending this total over..

[Monitor-Tan]

I like the under if Big Ben plays, but like the over if ben does NOT play.. Just my thought! good luck tonight!

[5mike5]

charlie batch vs niner D?

ill take my chances with that everyday allday

[shookid]

ben will start from espn

[edmskid]

Hey, John, thanks. This is a perfect example where my intuition and the numbers don't agree. Despite the reliably asinine (my6), rude (KH), and inarticulate (both) comments, I'm tending to side with the over scenario. I lack the skill, experience, and statistical depth you've got, but can't help cringing when considering a play on the under. I realize that John Q Public (and his rude, ignorant apostles) are so often caught in the favourite/over category. That's why bookies drive beemers and we putz around in Hyundais. Just wondering how you rationalize those instincts, when staring at the results of the simulator. Anyway, that in mind, I'm going to make a small play on the Pitt Tm Total O17.5, but leave the rest alone. BOL to everyone.

[PStrangers]

According to FOXSports.com Big Ben will be starting the game.

[spurginobili]

The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette is reporting that Roethlisberger will start.

[John Ryan]

I like the under if Big Ben plays, but like the over if ben does NOT play.. Just my thought! good luck tonight!

That is very insightful and I cannot argue those points. However, I will always stick with my 'guns' and play the simulator adn I continue to strongly believe that the defenses will dominate. Both teams want to shorten this game because they are equal opponents, minimizing mistakes and making priority number one not falling behind by two or more scores. Thanks. That was great insight!

[PickMeAwinner]

UNDER it is tonight my GL ya'll