***Donkwin47's 2011 FOOTBALL Season Thread***

[Vuk]

Hey buddy....I don't know if you have access to FCS games but I'm on Murray St. -3 tonight...5Dimes has it up right now...looked into it and that line is too small IMO...take a peek GL!

-Vuk

[Quickbuck?]

Haha, yeah I see that the Cincy TT is now 34.5, the first half TT is 17.5, and the game total is 60.5.. I don't think I move lines, but it is common for lines to move in my favor.. Usually that's just a sign of being on the right side and making good bets that beat the movement. There are many cappers who believe that the ONLY thing that matters in sports betting is beating line movement and getting a better price than the closing line, so it's a nice feeling to have that be a common occurance. BOL!

Yea. I still got on the plays despite the movement. Hopefully the hook doesn't get me.

[Donkwin47]

Hi Donk (and fellow followers). I am new to the forums but just wanted to say that I have been tailing u for about 2 weeks now and am super impressed with your capping to date. Had to pass on my thanks for your willingness to post your plays for free! I was previously brain-washed into believing u had to pay to get so called "quality" picks but I have now seen the light. Keep up the great work Donk - its much appreciated. And dont let the very rare haters get u down - someone always has to put there 2 cents in. Tailing u from downunder and looking forward to smashing the books some more!

I appreciate you taking the time to make your first post. This is why I post. I'm happy to help and glad to hear of others successes due to my posting. We all start somewhere and there was a time when I was a foolish kid who hung around the service plays forums a little too much. Ya live and ya learn! I've seem a few people from down under posting in my thread recently.. Pretty cool.

Thanks again and good luck!

[Donkwin47]

Hey buddy....I don't know if you have access to FCS games but I'm on Murray St. -3 tonight...5Dimes has it up right now...looked into it and that line is too small IMO...take a peek GL!

-Vuk

I don't really mess around with that stuff but best of luck to you, Vuk!

[mpresiv1]

Haha, yeah I see that the Cincy TT is now 34.5, the first half TT is 17.5, and the game total is 60.5.. I don't think I move lines, but it is common for lines to move in my favor.. Usually that's just a sign of being on the right side and making good bets that beat the movement. There are many cappers who believe that the ONLY thing that matters in sports betting is beating line movement and getting a better price than the closing line, so it's a nice feeling to have that be a common occurance. BOL!

Cincy TT even at 34.5 is still a joke they will probably have that by the half

[Donkwin47]

Cincy TT even at 34.5 is still a joke they will probably have that by the half

Haha, that'd be nice.. GL!

[BigBoi]

You have a side or just team totals and totals in general?

[Donkwin47]

You have a side or just team totals and totals in general?

Just totals, no side in this game. GL.

[Scully]

Hi Donkwin. What is your highest play as it relates to your * plays? (ie: 3* or 1*, etc.)

[AribaAriba]

Hi Donkwin. What is your highest play as it relates to your * plays? (ie: 3* or 1*, etc.)

5* is what i saw him played so far, pretty consistent winner with his record(few of legit on the forum)

[aunty jack]

Thanks for the picks Donk. Does anyone on here use bet365 and know how to wager on a single teams total?? I can only find the combined teams totals.

Bet365 is often tardy putting up team totals - although I see they're listed now for this game... albeit a few points higher than Donkwin is betting.

I'd suggest waiting until the game kicks off, and checking the live bet options. If it's a relatively quiet start (ie no touchdowns in the first five minutes or so) you'll soon see the team totals adjusted down accordingly.

Good luck to all who are wagering on this game.

[Thurman]

Just got done reading through all the pages on this thread and wanted to say thanks and congrats thus far. Very admirable that you post your plays (and record) for free. Im going to start tailing now, but can only get the o/u for tonite at 61.5, do you still think its a solid play?

[keemosabi]

Donk, would you still make all your plays at the current lines?

o/u 61.5
cincy TT o/u 34.5

o/u 30.5
cincy TT o/u 17.5

Thanks in advance for the advice.

[Scully]

5* is
what i saw him played so far, pretty consistent winner with his record(few of legit on the forum)

Thanks for that reply Ariba.

[CAS2550]

Donk, would you still make all your plays at the current lines? o/u 61.5 cincy TT o/u 34.5 o/u 30.5 cincy TT o/u 17.5 Thanks in advance for the advice.

i got em late too. like a hour ago. i played them regardless bro. i'd be surprised if we ended up losing by that one point or whatever. i would suggest grabbing them now before it gets even worse

[Scully]

Never say never CAS2550. I've seen it occur many, many times.

[CAS2550]

Never say never CAS2550. I've seen it occur many, many times.

LOL no where in that post was the word NEVER but like i said i'd be surprised if it happened.. of course it could... dont get me wrong

[keemosabi]

i got em late too. like a hour ago. i played them regardless bro. i'd be surprised if we ended up losing by that one point or whatever. i would suggest grabbing them now before it gets even worse

Yea, you're right; I just put the bets in now.

Never say never CAS2550. I've seen it occur many, many times.

That would really hurt if it happens here.

[trubbel]

BOL with your games Donk!!

Icaught this one TT early on so have a very good line me to.

Let´s get the money in!!!!

[Thurman]

I grabbbed it at 61.5, gonna hurt if that 1.5 is the difference but that's life....

[Thurman]

Double post, gd smart phone my ass

[Scully]

LOL no where in that post was the word NEVER but like i said i'd be surprised if it happened.. of course it could... dont get me wrong

You're right but indicating that you would be surprised if you lost by that one point or so difference basically indicates the same thought or idea, if you know what I mean. Don't get me wrong, lets hope it doesn't play a factor but I've seen it come into play many times in the past.

[Donkwin47]

Sorry guys, was in class then grabbed some food n ran some errands, but back for the game now.. To address a few points:

1) My plays are usually around 1.5* to 2* for an average play, anything 3* or higher is a "DONK" play (sort of like a TOP play) that I like a lot and have done very well.. I have had two DONK 4* plays this year, and they're 1-1 so far.. No 5* or higher plays yet. Last year I had 11 plays of 5* or higher, and they went 8-1-2.. I had one 10* play ("of the year") and that play won..

2) As for lines, I don't bet my games expecting them to win by 1 point or the hook.. I won't be around all the time to approve lines, so just think logically.. If the line moves higher, obviously I still like the play, but it has lost value, so it would still be a play, just maybe bet it a little smaller for each half point or point it moves, and pay more attention to key numbers. Example: If I have over 25 and it moves to 25.5 or 26, that's not that important, but If I have over 26.5 and it moves to 27 and eventually to 28, that has lost a ton of value crossing 2 huge numbers, so it would be a small play at best or just a pass.

Hope that helps. GL, guys.

[CAS2550]

donk, thanks again for the plays and the input. no joke. good luck to you and all tailing tonight.

[CAS2550]

im gonna go pro and some of your plays will pay for it donk. thanks bro

[Donkwin47]

donk, thanks again for the plays and the input. no joke. good luck to you and all tailing tonight.

Thanks, CAS. GL to you as well.

[keemosabi]

2) As for lines, I don't bet my games expecting them to win by 1 point or the hook.. I won't be around all the time to approve lines, so just think logically.. If the line moves higher, obviously I still like the play, but it has lost value, so it would still be a play, just maybe bet it a little smaller for each half point or point it moves, and pay more attention to key numbers. Example: If I have over 25 and it moves to 25.5 or 26, that's not that important, but If I have over 26.5 and it moves to 27 and eventually to 28, that has lost a ton of value crossing 2 huge numbers, so it would be a small play at best or just a pass.

Hope that helps. GL, guys.

Thanks for the advice man, it's very much appreciated.

[Donkwin47]

Obviously I'm riding out Cincy Over 9.5 2H as they are Over 16.5 -140.. I was thinking about Hedging the game over and taking 3-0 if Cincy hits their TT but as Bill O'Reilly would say "F*CK IT! We'll do it live!" Let's go for 4-0.. IMO, NC State should have at least 10 more points than they do right now.. They'll score 2nd half and always have the opportunity at garbage time scores. IMO we go 3-1 at worst, so let's go for it..

GL all.

[civdog]

Bang!!! Good job donk!!

[Coach Potato]

Easy money donk. Thanks

[esbenp]

Argh, looks like both teams turned on cruise mode, 3 points away from 61

[SUPREME]

Un. Believable.

[thortada]

what can you do about 3 pts in the 4th quarter? nothing...

still, great picks today. came out of the day up and you can't complain about that. i think you just got incredibly unlucky. been following you the past couple weeks and it's been great. looking forward to your saturday and sunday picks

[Thurman]

what can you do about 3 pts in the 4th quarter? nothing...

still, great picks today. came out of the day up and you can't complain about that. i think you just got incredibly unlucky. been following you the past couple weeks and it's been great. looking forward to your saturday and sunday picks

+1 - those fakking cowards from NC State gave up at the end. Still believe the over was the right play.....

[res11]

Thanks again donk