D3's NFL Plays

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Had a thread last year which was pretty successful for the most part. Finished up at $3845 for the entire season including playoffs but went into the playoffs with a healthy 5k bankroll. Regular season I did much better than the post-season but hoping for the same type of success with almost 4k winnings and I'll be more than happy.

There were a few regulars that were in and out of here pretty consistently last year and I learned a lot from them and they learned a thing or two from me. The key to betting is be VERY PATIENT. Find your spots and hit them hard. Remember, its a marathon not a sprint. I don't know much to stress this but never bet more than 10% on ANY BET no matter how confident you are. Like I said, its a marathon and you have to make sure you live to see another day/game.

Going to be pretty active in this thread shortly. Will have my insight on each division in the next couple of weeks. Cheers to a successful year everyone.

GO FALCONS!!

D3

[Bs1194]

Sounds good. What are your unit sizes?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Starting bankroll this year will be $6500. Stayed away from betting MLB and CFL where I could either build my bankroll higher or lower.

My unit sizes vary. A regular play will be between 5-7 percent. With my starting $6500 bankroll, a 5% bet would be equal to $325. The largest bet will unlikely ever exceed 10% of my total bankroll. I use money management and a certain percentage when thinking of how much to risk. The more I win the bigger my bankroll gets. The 5% standard bet will still be the same, except now my bet will be larger because of the larger bankroll (starting $6500 + winnings) I hope your still following. Its very very simple, but it works. Been doing it for years now and will do the same this year.

[Bs1194]

sounds good. So how many units do you think you profited last season?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I don't go by units just dollar amounts. I finished up a total of $3845 Canadian dollars.

Was enough to send me and my wife to Jamaica for 2 weeks and to fill up a half of years worth of gas in my truck.

[hitman09]

Good to see you back. It's about time man.

[LBDT168]

any preseason plays? for thursday, i am leaning arizona plus the points...thoughts?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I stay away from betting preseason. I've never bet it so why start now. Although, the Cards ML looks like a nice play. Worth a shot imo.

GL

[julio_cat]

Good Luck this year D3
Wise choice not to play preseason, IMO
.

[ink]

had a great run with you last season. looking to do the same again this one! GL D3!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Just going to enjoy watching some of the preseason action, not going to bet it. Counting down the hours...

632 hours 30 minutes until kick-off

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Been working on my Futures bets for this upcoming season for the last week or so now. Will post them when I've completed my list of future bets. Hope everyone is enjoying some preseason football!

[Stevedore]

Good luck on the upcoming season D3, enjoyed your thread last season.

Here are some futures I like:
Chargers over 10
Pitt under 10.5
Rams over 7.5
Detroit over 7.5
Clev. over 6.5

[FlaxMartin]

Wow, man I´ve waited for this to happend since SB.! Go D3!

[dantanner]

I don't go by units just dollar amounts. I finished up a total of $3845 Canadian dollars.

Was enough to send me and my wife to Jamaica for 2 weeks and to fill up a half of years worth of gas in my truck.

You can't spend them pesky units anyway....unless you first turn them into dollars.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good luck on the upcoming season D3, enjoyed your thread last season.

Here are some futures I like:
Chargers over 10
Pitt under 10.5
Rams over 7.5
Detroit over 7.5
Clev. over 6.5

I expect a big season from the Chargers if they're able to stay healthy. They don't have toughest of schedules so 10 wins at least seems reasonable. Their defense is underrated in my opinion and having Jackson back for the beginning of the season only makes that offense that much better.

Another full year under the belts for the young Rams' team. They should be able to mustard up 1 more win this year than they did last year and have a winning season and go on to win the NFC West. I like the Over 7.5 for the Rams, they could surprise some people this year.

Although the Steelers are getting old I can't see myself betting against them to get less than 11 wins this season. They do have a somewhat tough schedule, so I understand your reasoning why you like the under 10.5 but I'm staying away.

I'm not quite sold on the Lions just yet, but they have the potential to have an 8-8 year if not better. Stafford will have a big year but he needs a run game to help him out. Javid Best is a huge question mark on that team and he needs to be better. Their defense is still very young but getting better.

As for the Browns, I'm not quite sure what you see in them. 7 wins is a lot for a team who has to play the Ravens and Steelers twice. They have a pretty easy schedule when they aren't playing their division but there's a lot of holes on that team on both sides of the ball. The bigger question could be is Colt McCoy the real deal or not? Not even close to being sold on them this year and I like Under 6.5 a lot more than the Over.

Just my opinion. Good luck!

[Stevedore]

I expect a big season from the Chargers if they're able to stay healthy. They don't have toughest of schedules so 10 wins at least seems reasonable. Their defense is underrated in my opinion and having Jackson back for the beginning of the season only makes that offense that much better.

Another full year under the belts for the young Rams' team. They should be able to mustard up 1 more win this year than they did last year and have a winning season and go on to win the NFC West. I like the Over 7.5 for the Rams, they could surprise some people this year.

Although the Steelers are getting old I can't see myself betting against them to get less than 11 wins this season. They do have a somewhat tough schedule, so I understand your reasoning why you like the under 10.5 but I'm staying away.

I'm not quite sold on the Lions just yet, but they have the potential to have an 8-8 year if not better. Stafford will have a big year but he needs a run game to help him out. Javid Best is a huge question mark on that team and he needs to be better. Their defense is still very young but getting better.

As for the Browns, I'm not quite sure what you see in them. 7 wins is a lot for a team who has to play the Ravens and Steelers twice. They have a pretty easy schedule when they aren't playing their division but there's a lot of holes on that team on both sides of the ball. The bigger question could be is Colt McCoy the real deal or not? Not even close to being sold on them this year and I like Under 6.5 a lot more than the Over.

Just my opinion. Good luck!

Totally agree with you about the Chargers. They've got a chip on their shoulder and think they start fast this season as opposed to other years.

The Cleveland play is just a hunch that i'll probably not play, like the others though. Basically, the Cleveland play is all about McCoy and Schumur the new coach who is good with Qb's; a definite upgrade over Mangini. McCoy's arm strength looked good against the Packers last night, and I think he's the real deal.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

The Cleveland play is just a hunch that i'll probably not play, like the others though. Basically, the Cleveland play is all about McCoy and Schumur the new coach who is good with Qb's; a definite upgrade over Mangini. His arm strength looked good against the Packers last night, and I think he's the real deal.

You're right, Coach Schumur could make all the difference in McCoy's young career. Its McCoy's team this year so he has to make the most of what he has and hopefully Peyton Hillis can put up the same numbers he did last year. Like I mentioned the Browns' OL isn't very strong and they have some holes in the LB position and at Nose Tackle. They could very well win 7 games with their weak schedule but I wouldn't feel confident in betting it.

[jhack704]

good luck d3

[CHAZ]

Good luck this season D3!!



GO TEXANS

[mlb]

Pack attack is back baby!!! good luck this year D3

[RaRhythm24]

Good Luck D3, thanks for the info on how to be a profitable capper and money management, looking forward to your picks!
ARE U READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!!!!!

[skyscrapers]

Hi D3, may I ask generally how many plays do you usually post here on a typical NFL weekend?

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Hi D3, may I ask generally how many plays do you usually post here on a typical NFL weekend?

3-5 plays weekly. That's including all of Sunday and the Monday night game and also the Thursday night games when those come rolling in later on in the year.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

good luck d3

Good luck this season D3!!



GO TEXANS

Pack attack is back baby!!! good luck this year D3

Good Luck D3, thanks for the info on how to be a profitable capper and money management, looking forward to your picks!
ARE U READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!!!!!

Thanks guys. Best of luck this year as well. Just be patient and let's make sure were still in the game with a healthy bankroll when Week 17 rolls in.

I'M READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL!!!!

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

My futures to kick start the betting season

Green Bay total wins OVER 11.5 +135 (200 to win 270)

Atlanta total wins OVER 10.5 +145 (100 to win 145)

Cincinnati total wins OVER 5.5 -123 (123 to win 100) My favorite future thus far

Cleveland total wins UNDER 6.5 +117 (100 to win 117)

Dallas total wins OVER 9 +122 (200 to win 244)

New England total wins OVER 11.5 +100 (200 to win 200)

Indianapolis to win Super Bowl +1721 (50 to win 860)

[naloboy]

i like ur last pick; got that straight up bet w/ my local here in hawaii. indy 500

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

i like ur last pick; got that straight up bet w/ my local here in hawaii. indy 500

You can never count out the Colts. And the Bowl is being played in their stadium so they'll have that in the back their mind all season. Also, great value at +1721, you can't go wrong throwing 50 bucks on it.

[SportsPedagogy]

Out of curiosity, why the love for the Bengals ... i have them penciled in as my worst team .... looking at 3-13

[FlaxMartin]

Tailing them all!

[BetterBizness]

Hope this thread lasts longer than your CFL one...

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Out of curiosity, why the love for the Bengals ... i have them penciled in as my worst team .... looking at 3-13

They have their main core of returning defensive players back this year. Losing two key defensive players Dhani Jones and Jonathon Joesph. But they were able to replace them both by signing Manny Lawson and Nate Clements. A lot of people are underestimating this defense. In my opinion there are several teams that have much worse defenses than the Bengals.

As for their offense, they have a solid 2 headed run game with Benson and Scott. A young core of receivers who have a ton of potential. AJ Green has a ton of potential along with Jerome Simpson. The OLine returns this year and they protected Palmer for the majority of the season but let's be honest Palmer sucks even when he had Ocho and T.O. to throw too. The biggest hole on this entire team is at the QB position where they have an unproven rookie, Andy Dalton, and Bruce Gradkowski. They aren't even close to a playoff team nor are they built to have a winning season. But 5-6 wins is where I see them finishing around.

Now take a look at their schedule. Their non-division games are: @Denver, San Fran, Buffalo, @Jacksonville, Indy, @Seattle, @Tennessee, Houston, St. Louis, Arizona. Tell me that's not an easy schedule. Let's say their able to get 2 division wins, which is no guarantee but its possible. One win against the Browns and lets say they're able to steal one at home against the Steelers or Ravens. Now out of the games I've listed, they need to win 4 out of 10. Its not a guarantee Over 5.5 total wins for them, but I just wanted to explain my reasoning behind it. It has a shot of going Over 5.5 that is all.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Hope this thread lasts longer than your CFL one...

I straight up gave up with betting CFL before I lost a lot of money. Its a really boring league to watch and its terrible football (I'm also Canadian). Take a look at last nights game. The final score was 36-1. Is that a fukking joke? How do people watch this league nevermind bet on it.

[Sunde91]

My futures to kick start the betting season Green Bay total wins OVER 11.5 +135 (200 to win 270) Atlanta total wins OVER 10.5 +145 (100 to win 145) Cincinnati total wins OVER 5.5 -123 (123 to win 100) My favorite future thus far Cleveland total wins UNDER 6.5 +117 (100 to win 117) Dallas total wins OVER 9 +122 (200 to win 244) New England total wins OVER 11.5 +100 (200 to win 200) Indianapolis to win Super Bowl +1721 (50 to win 860)

to be honest and give feedback, I am stratching my head at most of these

Cincy Over is your favorite play laying -123? It's +money everywhere. The under has been obliterated after opened around 7. Team has Rookie Andy Dalton at QB, shit coach who needed to be fired last year, shit D. No stability or direction whatsoever. 6 wins is a triumphant success for that team.

ATL plays a very tough schedule where I could see 9-7. Losses PHI, @TB, @GB, @DET, @IND @HOU, @NO.

Manning is not even sure to start season, and he is way behind. Colts to win SB really suspect.

I like Dallas Over at that pice. Vig is on the over at some places. Could see a 10-6 season, though 9-7 seems most likely, but the +money makes it worthwhile

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I entered in the wrong odds for that Cinci Over 5.5 wins. I don't know why the hell I posted -123 when I have it at -105. It was a mistake on my end. And just another person underestimating the Bengals defense. I wouldn't be surprised to see Dalton do a hell of a lot better than Newton this year. Bengals OVER 5.5 it'll surprise a lot of people this year.