2011 NFL System - JM and Modified

[on3]

no, not a play. only when a team loses 3 in a row SU and ATS. the 2 in a row and ATS only applies if a team is at .500 or better.

[Kev the Brit]

on3, do you use the closing line or the opening line when comparing a team's score ATS?

Keep up the good work

Kev

[Kev the Brit]

looks like we got 5 potential games to watch out for this weekend to see if they qualify for our first set of plays....anyone else agree?

Yeh, Buddy, agreed. And I have another 5 that lost their games SU and ATS last week and are now potential Week 5 plays.

[NZT-48]

Yeh, Buddy, agreed. And I have another 5 that lost their games SU and ATS last week and are now potential Week 5 plays.

ok good deal thanks Kev just wanted to make sure is all

[SUPEREAGLE43]

On3, what percentage of bankroll do your recommend for a unit. While following your baseball thread, my base unit was 0.5% of my total bankroll. Do you recommend something similar here? How many units do you anticipate this system to make? Thanks.

[Bocahdcp]

This kind of thread is exactly what I was looking for when I joined up. I am looking for some solid guys with a system that will finally give me a good shot at beating my book. Thanks a ton I look forward to your advice.
GL

[oklahoma]

whats the rule on ATS pushes? Miami pushed today, does that make it a no play?

[on3]

updated:

system record: 0-0
units: +0

Labby line (1 unit = $100)

50-50-50-50
50-50-50-50
50-50-50-50

system week 4 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

Indianapolis (pending)
St Louis (A) to win 100

system week 5 potential plays (lost 2 SU and 2 ATS):

philly
chicago
jacksonville

system week 6 potential plays (lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

arizona
cincinnati
houston
atlanta
new england
ny jets

mod system record: 0-0

mod system week 5 potential plays (.500 or better record, lost 1 SU and 1 ATS):

new england
houston
ny jets

[Kev the Brit]

whats the rule on ATS pushes? Miami pushed today, does that make it a no play?

Miami closed in Vegas at +2 so, for the purposes of JM and on3, they won the game ATS and are no longer in focus.

Kev

PS. Oops. Since writing the above nonsense, I have been made aware of my error. Miami were -1.5 ATS. Kev

[Wallco99]

"

[alexknyc]

Didn't JM have a system where you take home dogs +10 or more against a team playing on a surface that's different from their home field? The Colts last night fit that scenario.

[hagball52]

On3 if you become an sbr pro we could give you more points. Just a thought. You contribute a lot.

[oklahoma]

does anybody here actually place their bet in early in the week(today)? or do they wait til the day before and watch the line movement?

[h00dini]

does anybody here actually place their bet in early in the week(today)? or do they wait til the day before and watch the line movement?

i place my bets on game day.

[Kev the Brit]

"

[on3]

I was seeing Cleveland -2 for moat of the week until they finally ruled out Hillis. I didn't track the closing line, but it does look like Miami was the favorite by kickoff. I will adjust and have Miami as a play.

[oklahoma]

i place my bets on game day.

good to know. i was curious as miami is getting juiced at +9 at pinny with some books already having moved to +7.5

[on3]

does anybody here actually place their bet in early in the week(today)? or do they wait til the day before and watch the line movement?

if injuries a question, then i place them on gameday. if teams are healthy, i try to get the best line possible. this weekend, i hated playing detroit at -3 for a push instead of at -2.5 for a win.

[thebestthereis]

9 is because of teaser action, the difference between 7.5 and 9 is nothing. but it will matter in a teaser, which will see sd bets

[Wallco99]

What is the actual rule we are using for ATS pushes? It doesn't state it in the PDF. Are we counting it as a win for the team, since the rule says a team must LOSE three straight both ATS and S/U, and that obviously wouldn't happen in there was a push? Or does that game count as a no play, and the next game would be the next one in progression?

[on3]

this is the third year i am playing the system and a push is just as good as a 'win' when determining who qualifies for a play. now we will buy off numbers like 3, 7, 10, 14 when we make actual plays so that pushes are not a factor for the most part.

[on3]

system week 4 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

Miami +7.5 (buy hook) (A) to win 100
St Louis PK (A) to win 100

[Wallco99]

this is the third year i am playing the system and a push is just as good as a 'win' when determining who qualifies for a play. now we will buy off numbers like 3, 7, 10, 14 when we make actual plays so that pushes are not a factor for the most part.

Thanks

[alexknyc]

Just got an email from JM:

First, just an update for you that we've closed out on this MLB
season. Earlier this month, I was sending out notices on all the
September system selections just for record-keeping purposes. The
system makes it very clear that you do not wager in September
because of the great risks involved. Many members voiced their
concerns that there's no need to send out these selections if they
are not part of the official system bets, therefore I have ceased
sending out those notices. We officially finished off the 2011 MLB
season this year with an immaculate record of 31-0! Cheers!

But I'm also frowning because you missed out on yet another PERFECT
winning run so far in my NFL Betting System That Has Never Lost

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[knugen]

Nice With some JM action on sunday

[cmdyrds]

thanks guys for the work put in.

[on3]

Didn't JM have a system where you take home dogs +10 or more against a team playing on a surface that's different from their home field? The Colts last night fit that scenario.

thats just the HUFT. it's been around forever, historically it hits around 60%.

HUFT = home underdog, (opponent on) foreign turf

[alexknyc]

thats just the HUFT. it's been around forever, historically it hits around 60%. HUFT = home underdog, (opponent on) foreign turf

That's the one.... The Colts covered too.

[Brundle99]

Does anyone have the JM NFL PDF?, last year I got the 'JM NFL System' and also the 'Ultimate NFL System PDF too,

but the difference is: "you compare the stadium surface of the team playing at home against the stadium surface that the away team is used to be playing on".

and the second is: "betting that one team is going to win at least one game in a consecutive 3-game series if they have just lost 3 consecutive games both straight up as well as on the spread."

[uup115]

this is the third year i am playing the system and a push is just as good as a 'win' when determining who qualifies for a play. now we will buy off numbers like 3, 7, 10, 14 when we make actual plays so that pushes are not a factor for the most part.

JM's email claims, "The system goes by the 3-game A-B-C series like
you've always known, and best of all - the odds are never more than
-110!" How do you buy the half and maintain these odds?

[Wallco99]

JM's email claims, "The system goes by the 3-game A-B-C series like
you've always known, and best of all - the odds are never more than
-110!" How do you buy the half and maintain these odds?

I don't believe it is worded quite like that, because if the team we are playing is the favorite, then we are playing the money line. There is a good chance that would be higher than -110 also. I believe he says "MOST plays are -110" not all plays.

[mantorras77]

system week 4 plays (lost 3 SU and 3 ATS):

Miami +7.5 (buy hook) (A) to win 100
St Louis PK (A) to win 100

I got Miami +9 on bodog and St. Louis +2 on bookmaker

[hagball52]

I don't believe it is worded quite like that, because if the team we are playing is the favorite, then we are playing the money line. There is a good chance that would be higher than -110 also. I believe he says "MOST plays are -110" not all plays.

You are absolutely correct. When he was marketing his system to me he claimed there was the possibility of over 100 plays and the juice was never more than -110 but then I bought his system and the real truth came out. He the said that actually there were only 15 - 20 plays a year and that most of them were -110. You would have to bet money line on favorites but almost were never playing favorites. Very similar to what he is doing right now, still trying to market his "NFL Never Lost in 89 years" system. His recent email states that you just missed out on a big win and you should buy his system now so you don't miss out on the next winning bet but he doesn't tell you that won't happen until next year. He sure can market his services.

[uup115]

The last win he was referring to was the GB(B) fade against CAR. "Fade the Superbowl champion for a 3 game chase at start of next season".

[DustyDiamond]

Sorry for the rookie question but what does "buy hook" stand for?