BetterBizness' NFL Playoff Thread...

[BetterBizness]

Based on the preview... Things have gone on schedule... so now do we bet that things totally f up and the Eagles find the heart to win this game.. Or they stay with the current and *longer* Packer trend that they will shut them down... As noted the 3Q has NOT been a strength for Phily the past half dozen games.. Their comeback trail is usually in the 4th...

Estimations? Phily -4? -4.5...

Remember that the Bay has not been outscored in their past 11 by MORE than 4 in a 2H... lets see what the line is and possibly go after it...

[BetterBizness]

ugh... Phily -1... kinda hoping we'd get 4... But they have shown ZERO life... hmm... And it's being hit hard by Phily backers... I say lets take the best price and go..

2 Units GB +1 (+107)

[RAK]

Wow!! Philly -1

[BetterBizness]

Arguably the Money line has some value here giving almost a quarter extra... (+130) ...

[BetterBizness]

23 is a nice number to go low on as well.. Just not sure If I want to test it...

[BetterBizness]

If Phily opens it up it could push the number over... just not happy with it...

[BetterBizness]

Really, the only thing keeping Phily in this game is the fumble on the first drive... We got that back at least...

[BetterBizness]

STILL Alive on the 2H after Akers Misses... I doubt we get the game though unless GB takes a long drive and scores here... the deeper the game goes, the more "prevent" is in effect to f us...

[Bluedragon]

What's up BB. Nice to see you back in action. Can we say......"he missed by akers" ??? lol

[BetterBizness]

Hey Dragon... I laughed.... Too bad Vick didn't uh... er... I danno...

Anyhow... so we got the matchup we asked for... A Phily Comeback Vs a Green Bay Offense that moves the ball with 3 minutes left.... Lost the 2H ... F... oh well.. lets just get the game....

[BetterBizness]

Interesting... on that play before the 2 minute warning you'd almost rather Rogers throws it and hope its incomplete...

Well not really but you get the idea... 2 minutes left now with no stops for Phily...

Couldn't have analyzed the play any better... but I literally still have NO clue whether or not we get the win with the comeback kings...

[BetterBizness]

Why not just move the Eagles to the 8 yard line and put 14 seconds on the clock... we all know that's what going to happen... It's in the script....

[BetterBizness]

Fn REF gets in the way when he goes to tackle Jackson...

[BetterBizness]

but what is the trend saying of Trailing in the 2H? Basically if history follows the trend, the Packers will be up at SOME POINT in the second half when Vick will attempt to weave his magic...

Nice when what you say actually happens...

GOodnight Comeback Kings!

[BetterBizness]

I think the pick here is the Pack... on the Road... ending the huge year for the Eagles...

If you like the Pack, now with 20 minutes before kickoff... you can find them +3 at Bodog... and if you like the Eagles.. -1 On Pinny and others...

I will also say that this play may have a slight correlation to it in that IF GB IS able to stop Phily, particularly in the 2H, that they would have done it with solid methodical drives keeping Phily's offense off the field... and keeping the score down...

Thus

4 Units Packers +1 (+101)
1 Unit parlay Packers +1 + Under 46.5 (+258)

Cash

6.5 Units

MINUS the 2 Sheity units lost on the 2H... (If I thought Phily were the comeback kings why didn't I lay off the 2H?)

Net +4.5 Units....

[BetterBizness]

Overall Wilrcard Weekend

NO/Sea = +9.25 Units
NYJ/Ind = -2.5 Units
Bal/KC = +2.9 Units
GB/Phi = +4.5 Units

Minus 0.5 Unit Parlay (3/4)

Net Week 1 Playoffs: +13.65 units

[BetterBizness]

Last time I went 4-0 in the first week of the CFL playoffs, I went 0-4 the next week... Maybe something to watch out for...

[BetterBizness]

As we're all excited for the next weeks odds...

Saturday
Bal @ Pitt -3.5 O/U 36.5
GB @ Atl -1 O/U 45.5

Sunday
Sea @ Chi +10 O/U 40
NYJ @ NE -9 O/U 45.5

[BetterBizness]

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh -3 O/U 37

Interesting... You know I like to look at Strength of Schedule alot... Pitt in their 12 wins beat THREE teams over .500... Atl Week 1, Tampa Before they knew how good they were, and Baltimore by 3... The rest were just good old fashion beat downs on Cinci and Cle (4W)..Car, Oak, Buf, Mia and Ten ... But of course their LOSSES were pretty quality opponents... Baltimore...NO, NYJ, and NE...

So they basically beat down bad teams, beat a couple good teams early (Sans Big Ben).. lost real important games to Strong teams, and barely beat the team that they are playing tomorrow if not for big hair forcing a fumble late... to win by 3...

Baltimores S.O.S wasn't the greatest either... as they basically played a similar schedule... Split the Divisional Pit games, although Split with Cinci (week 2 when Cinci was going to the Superbowl)... their other 3 losses were also quality opps... NE by 3, and Atl by 5... as far as the magic number 3... they basically lost 2 this year by more.. and by NO MORE than 5.. EVER..

so will things go as ordered and this matchup stays within the 3... I'm leaning Yes... Quite honestly, nearly EVERYTHING about this game screams tight... Obviously Pitt COULD win by 25... but it would take a pretty lackluster effort by Baltimore to get there... anything CAN happen.. and does... but in a game like this outside, in the cold... with Ravens on a 5 game winning streak and unloading last week on the Chiefs... I think they may catch Pitt a bit rusty with the fact that the last 2 snoozers the Steelers played were the final 2 weeks of the season against Carolina, and Cleveland... then the bye week.. Obviously they will come to play, but this may have a bit of an early advantage to the Ravens since they are in Top form, having to fight to make the wild card although also getting the benefit of Cinci and Cleveland late as well...

I am mostly basing this game on a top form team meeting a team that hasn't played a relevant game in a month... could be a trap of course, but then again why overthink what is given... let's call it a FG game and see where it lies at the end...

Keep in mind these 2 teams have played 7x the past 3 seasons... inc 1 playoff game... FIVE have been decided by a FG... the other 2 were Pitt by 4, and the playoff game by 9... Flaccos rookie season...(2008 Playoff Game was within 2 when Big Hair took it to the House with under 5 left)

Not going to attempt to go into the total in this game as I believe it has as much chance of being a field position 10-7 game, as it does a 31-28 shootout, which would be much more fun to watch of course...

2 Units Baltimore +3.5

[BetterBizness]

Leaning on GB tonight but don't really feel comfortable as I'm moving and can't focus... Hopefully Balt can hang in the 4Q...

[BetterBizness]

SCrew it.. BAsed on last week I'm still a believer in the GB 2H monster... Revenge game too boot...

2 Units - Green Bay +1

[BetterBizness]

We lose -0.2 Units on the Juice of the Ravens game but still up +13.45 units...

Really was amazing that that game was lost by a TD ... Green Bay is still a HOT HOT team and REFUSES to lose, particularly as the game progresses... Either they are in Chicago or Seattle Next week... I would love their chances in Both....

[BetterBizness]

Seattle @ Chicago -10 O/U 42.5

This weeks storyline with the Hawks is pretty much the same story it was last week.. but now the Hawks have ZERO chance not because they are playing the Champs, but because they are on the road, where they Notoriously SUCK...

Heres the thing though... We know momentum, no pressure, and sound execution from the Offense are reasons for...

Now lets look at the Bears entire season in a few lines...

At one point this team was 4-3 and TRAILING @ the 0-8 Bills but figured out with 5 minutes left how to figure it out... and so a potential 4-4 team turns into a 5-3 team and goes on to win 4 in a row after that vs Min, Mia, Phi & Det... Which isn't the worst strength of Schedule... but certainly not the best either... Really Chicago got 5 of their 10 wins within their division.. Rolling over Det and Minny, and splitting with GB...

Chicago down the stretch looked "decent" but not really... losing 2 of 4 and of real concern is how they actually "tried" to beat the Pack in that last week, but didn't... This may also play into next week pending how this week goes...

Last time the Bears came off the bye week they played Buffalo and slowed the pace with long controlled drives... when they played Seattle the game was all about stalled drives with some points in the middle... Under? Possibly?

It's no secret Seattle has just 2 wins on the road... one in Chicago... the other in Ari... Last year... just 1 win... 2008...2 wins... Even in their playoff run on 07... just 3 wins... Clearly the chances of winning are small.. But I do look back and see a little bit of something with regards to the spread... Despite the Hawks a pitiful road team... In 2007, after beating the Cowboys as 2.5 point dogs in the now infamous Romo botched pin.. The next week they went to you guessed it... Chicago.. as 9.5 point dogs to a 15-3 Bears team... and were up 3 in the 4th Quarter and lost in O.T...That was a superbowl bound team...

Blah blah blah.. thus....

5 units Seattle +10
2 Units Under 42.5

[BetterBizness]

Not the worst possible day in Chicago... Drinking the Seahawk Kool-Air watching the pre-game seeing Hasselbeck tell everyone it's like playing when we were kids...

Adding

1 Unit Seahawks ML +380

[BetterBizness]

Watching Jay Cutler be serious makes me think he's concentrating on throwing 3 picks...

[BetterBizness]

Over Under 5.5 Bears fans shown during Anthem with beers in their hands...

[BetterBizness]

Already in Lots of trouble....

[BetterBizness]

Just how we drew up a cover/under... Early Bears TD combined with Beasthawk TE looking out with concussion...

[BetterBizness]

Back to reality... down 8 units and it's only half time...

Don't want to bet much on the next one, but I will take a flyer on the Jets and all the hype...

1 Unit parlay NYJ +350 + O45

[Scully]

Whoaaaaaa.
Takin' a hefty chance eh BB. I certainly wish you all the best as it will certainly pay handsomely should Fat-ass Ryan's unit win SU.
However this team simply doesn't know when to stop talkin' b.s. and we know where that got them last time they played Brady & co.
Now it will most definitely not be a 45-3 butt-kicking like we saw back in week 13 on Monday night but I somehow for the life of me cannot see this team knocking of the Pats today in New England.
I suppose at 1 unit though, it's not a major risk in any case.

[BetterBizness]

Back to reality... down 8 units and it's only half time...

Don't want to bet much on the next one, but I will take a flyer on the Jets and all the hype...

1 Unit parlay NYJ +350 + O45

I liked the Jets all week... Give Lakerboy props for giving me the confidence to jack it to 3 units instead of just 1... Helped I was on tilt after the SeaChickens...

Basically I draw down a unit on the day, down 8 units on the Hawks game, but make most of it back, with the Obvious looking 24 points in the 4Q, which we win in the last minute...

[BetterBizness]

Whoaaaaaa.
Takin' a hefty chance eh BB. I certainly wish you all the best as it will certainly pay handsomely should Fat-ass Ryan's unit win SU.
However this team simply doesn't know when to stop talkin' b.s. and we know where that got them last time they played Brady & co.
Now it will most definitely not be a 45-3 butt-kicking like we saw back in week 13 on Monday night but I somehow for the life of me cannot see this team knocking of the Pats today in New England.
I suppose at 1 unit though, it's not a major risk in any case.

Just steaming Scul... Happened just like we drew it up... Onside kick late that finds FG range and end up running for a TD followed by a last minute TD...

[BetterBizness]

Week 2 Playoffs

Lose 5.1 Units (Sea -102), Lose 2.2 Units Under (-110), Lose Sea ML ... = 8.3 Units
Cash 7.30 Units on Parlay...

Net Divisional Playoffs = -1 Unit

Net = +12.45 units...

[BetterBizness]

Not a ton of write up.. But I had every intention in the world to play this game under...

Then look back at history.. Both this years and the previous years these teams have made the post season... There is VERY little other then the recent game at the end of the year to guide me to under even though we KNOW the number has dropped a point and a half... Weather is non factor in my opinion as both as cold weather teams... Gonna go public on this one

5 Units Bears/Pack OVER 42

[BetterBizness]

I have a lean on the Packers in this game, but I am going to see how the first half plays out and may attack the 2H line...