Some of you know me from my CFL, Canadian Football thread... Going to attempt my version of The run to the SuperDuper Jerry Jones Mobile Bowl...
Best Bets to all...
Best Bets to all...
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NO -10.5 @ Sea O/U 45.5
So far... I have one analysis on the Seahawks game I will pull from Lakerboys thread that I did yesterday...
Seahawks Upset? Any chance?
Few possible reasons for an upset special that work for the SeaChickens, if even a 10 point cover...
1) Seattle has a HUGE advantage of PLAYING the Saints in week 12... Hasselbeck was 32 of 44 for 366 yards... 1 TD 0 INTs...
Brees was 29 of 43 for 382 yards.. 4 TD's - 2 INT's.... (1 in garbage time)
RB Lynch - Last 4 games avg's 3.8 or better YPC... had 2 of his 3 fumbles of his Seahawks career... Vs the Saints...
After the Adjustments were made in the 27-16 (NO) 1H - it was a 7-3, 2H (NO) ... Seattle only had the Ball 3x in that half, with 2 of their drives stopped because of the fumbles by Lynch...
Coaches make adjustments... Carroll will make them after getting to play them once already...
2) The Saints Momentum - Big thing is the 6 game winning streak - At 4-3 they Clearly needed some help... Playing at Home to Pittsburgh - They were on the verge of dropping to .500 .. Literally in the final few minutes with Pitt driving down 3, NO gets a fumble off a big Pitt gain and drives the other way to win by 10... Huge Win makes them 5-3, and now the next 5 Games, they beat up 5 - Sub .500 teams... In order - The Panthers, a Bye, the Seahawks, Dallas (by 3), Cinci (by 4), and St. Louis ... Only Seattle (At the time) was a team over .500 ...
They close out the season losing to a Tough Raven team.. Beating Atlanta Late, and losing in a throw away today ...
Obviously the second half of the season has been Good to them... They beat who they had too.. But Early on this team was 3-2, beating Minny (5 points), SF (3 points), and Carolina (2 points) .. Losing to Atlanta and Arizona... They were a VERY average team that did what they had to... but Had the Benefit of a Schedule which now at the end of the season turns out to be very favourable...
3) 12th man blah blah blah... Fact is, fans tonight were into it.. They cared... I've been to these games.. For an open air Stadium, you just can't understand how acoustically it is incredible to hear the deafening tone during the NFL Championship game 5 years ago.. They AVERAGE 2 Opponent False Starts PER GAME in their field... It's rediculous how it affects you...
4) Weather in Seattle... It's Rainy... Relatively Cold... And so far the expected Weather forecast is - SURPRISE - Cloudy, rainy, and a high of about 40... Last year NO played Both games up until the Bowl at home in the dome...
In fact, the LAST time NO played in a significant game that being Outdoors had any effect... Dec 11, 2008.. A night game in Chicago that started in 28 degrees (F), 60% Humidity - They lost 27-24 .. Brees was 24-43 for 232 yards - 2TD's and 2 INTs...
Before that... Dec 30, 2007 - @ Chicago again - 30 Deg (F) - 90% Humidity - They lose 33-25... Brees 35-60 for 320 yards... 3 TD's, 2 INTs...
Oh before that... You'll never believe it...Conference Championship @ Chicago - Jan 21, 2007, 28 Deg, 86% Humidity... rainy... Lose 39-14 - Brees 27-49 for 354 - 2 TD's -1 INT...
Of course, it could just be CHICAGO that has their number of course... Or CHICAGO has the distinct advantage of being a team that can play better in the Cold at Home... (Unless they are playing the Pats of course)...
So if you are looking for reasons why they COULD win... there are a few... Of course the Saints ARE the better team... But until they beat Pitt in week 7, they were NOT the better team against anyone... Seattle, until they beat the Rams... Were NOT the better team against many except when they HAD to win...
Brees has to overcome a completely different type of game... Throwing the ball in a wet, cold, hostile environment, PLUS banging up ANOTHER Three starters today after 6 of them were already banged up... they also have to travel 3000 miles and play across 2 time zones, on a short week...
can THEY be the better team in 6 days? Can they at WORST cover 10.5 points???
I'm thinking yes...
Final bets to be determined as game time approaches...Comment -
NYJ @ Indy -3 O/U 44.5
Indy is everyone's darling again after the 11 INT's in 3 games debacle that nearly cost the Colts a chance to play in the post season... But with that said... So were the Jets?
Firstly, Lets make it pretty clear how the Colts got here... they won out the last 4 games of the season... Fighting off the Beaten up Titans, the Raiders, and the team they HAD to beat in the Jags... No question they did what they had to do, but can they do it again... Versus a much higher quality Opposition?
Looking at the Jets, who everyone wrote off for dead just a month ago... They walked into Steel City and not only hung with the Steelers, they beat them despite Pitt's best attempt to put them away up 17-10...
Most people forgot the big winning streak, 9 of 10 that the Jets put up over the course of the year... Beating NE early in the year.. and a bunch of what we now know as "gritty" teams in Detroit and Cleveland.. Unfortunately, the rest of their wins as we ALSO now know, were against a pretty weak schedule, including Houston, Cinci, Minny, Buffalo (2x) and Miami...
Every win the Jets had though, it was Clear that the offense was effective as their lowest scoring WIN was 22 points... in Pittsburgh... The rest were typically in their mid 20's, into the 30's...
Indy's Defense may be prime picking for what may be a ripe looking OVER 44.5 ... Other than the Tenn final game of the year, Indi Defense has not allowed LESS then 24 points in their last 7...
This just seems to have a 30-27 game written all over it in the Dome...
My clear lean right now is OVER in this game first... with the Jets Covering second... lets see how the week plays out...Comment -
Good luck BB!
Nice to see some nice analyzes with some effort in them.
Aren't you afraid of the Jets D might showing up and shutting down Indy?
How about teasing Jets and Seahawks?Comment -
what's with all the teasing? If you think your pick has value then don't tease. Of course I'm not sure about either of these two games so I can't even consider teasing of value here.Comment -
Thanks J -Originally posted by The J-DizzleGood luck BB! Nice to see some nice analyzes with some effort in them.
Aren't you afraid of the Jets D might showing up and shutting down Indy?
How about teasing Jets and Seahawks?
I figure that is always the worry when the playoffs start... Field Position type of games that teams who just weeks ago were opening up the playbook, decide that they are going to just stick to a basic strategy to start, feel out the opposition, exchange a few field goals to start... and the OVER is f'd...
But look at last year... Same scenario with the Jets in Indy... (But Colts D was better)... Game starts out with 0 in Q1... 30! in Q2 on route to a 30-17 Over...
Also look at recent Jet Early starts...
24-17 Vs Bears after 1H (Good Chi Offense)
10-10 with Steelers after 1H (Good Steeler Defense)
3-10 with the Fins (Bad Mia Offense)
3-24 with NE (Good NE Offense)
Again, last year the Jets held Sanchez in check alot... 8/15 - 144 type games... primarily just game managing... This year the past 4 games (Not inc Buf)
Chi - 24-37 -269
Pit 19-29 - 170
Mia - 17-44 - 216
NE - 17-33 - 164
Cin - 16-28 - 166
How about the past 5 games from Indy... what do QB's do Against them?
Ten - Collins - 28-39 - 300
Oak - Campbell - 29-42 - 231
Jac - Gerrard 24-38 - 294
Ten - Collins - 28- 39 - 244
Dal - Kitna - 18-26 167
Oddly enough Kitna had the lowest Production of any of them... (Although RB Choice had 100, and Jones had 83) but obviously they were exploiting the poor indy Run D... Which is Great... Jets have some of that... but this doesn't "feel" like those 10-7 games in the past... Of course there is some gut feeling here.. it is gambling...
But I figure, as in this cowboys game, that EVEN if Coach Ryan wants to change the game plan and say... We're going to POUND the ball every chance we get... That's ok too because Colts Run D is the worst in the league... That combined with Payton's natural ability to get 3 TD's in a game like this... I feel that the over has ALOT of potential and will likely bet it strong...Comment -
I am in some agreement here... But IF I was to tease for a TD... Seahawks +17.5, and Jets>indy Over 36.5 has some merit ... But the problem with a teaser like this is that my feeling on BOTH of these games, is either Hawks play close... or, as alot of people will want to lay into me later for.. the Wheels Fall off and they lose by 30... Same with the Jets... Both Teams decide 8 minute Drives are the wave of the future, and then settle for FG's the whole time... They you just created a No Value prop for 1:1 ...Originally posted by wquineComment -
Also something I just wrote In lakerboys thread I'll put in here about the previous history of the Weather games of the Saints the past 3 years...
4 inches of Snow in Vancouver, which likely means snow this week in Seattle... at worst cold and humid... I've also pointed out NO has lost their last THREE games in below average weather, ALL with BREES having big numbers, but BIG PICKS.... one against a 7-9 Bears team, another against a 9-7 Bears team... and the other in the same year in the NFC championship game where they were crushed...
Dec 11, 2008- (L) 27-24 Brees was 24-32 - 243 Yards - 2 TD's 2 INT's
Dec 30, 2007 -(L) 33-25 Brees was 35-60 - 320 yards - 3 TD's 2 INT's
Jan 21, 2007 - (L) 39-14 Brees was 27-49 - 354 Yards - 2 TD's 1 INT ...
so it's a GIVEN - Brees puts up 29-47 for 305 yards for 3 TD's and 2 INT's... Clear GIVEN - But obviously Seattle BAD right .. we know this... Because those BEARS teams in the past must have LIT UP the Saints D... RiGHT? the ONLY way they could win the game right...
Dec 11, 2008 - Orton 24-40 - 172 - 0 TD's, 1 INT - RB Forte 11 - 34 1 TD
Dec 30, 2007 - Orton 12-27 - 190 - 2 TD's, 1 INT - RB Peterson 21-91 0 TD's
Jan 21, 2007 - REX GROSSMAN - 11-26 - 144 yards 1 TD - 0 INT - Jones - 19-123 - 2TD's
Way too many guys who "think" they know football/sports... and don't realize that even in a BLOWOUT, there are usually made up by one or two plays EARLY/Midway that typically knock another team on their ass and they can't get up... What part of Kyle Orton, or Rex Grossman screams SUPERSTAR? Why do you think you are GETTING 5:1 on your money???
Again... this COULD be a blowout, no one is questioning how good NO is... but the past shows that with a SIMILARly composed team, with many of the SAME players and Coaching staff, there is at least a DECENT possibility that the game stays close... and IF it stays close... I would LOVE to take my shot at 5:1 down 7 in the 4th...Comment -
Looking rainy and cold in Seattle... ML is dropping... Clearly at least a 1x play on Sea ML for me... and looks like 3x with the 10.5 ... Also liking the 2 Game Parlay with Sea +10.5 and Jets/Ind Over...Comment -
42 Degrees and big humidity... More importantly... There is a Huge Controversy "Brewing" @ Qwest Field...
Bottoms up, Seahawks fans.
Fans who purchase a 20-ounce beer Saturday at Qwest Field will pay the 16-ounce price after a video brewed up a controversy about whether beer-drinking fans have been getting their money's worth.
The video, which was posted on YouTube and Facebook, shows a man pouring liquid from a taller cup to fill a shorter cup, both with Seahawks logos. With a cheering crowd as the soundtrack, he says, "Hold it!"
Later, he yells, "Call the cops!"
A 20-ounce beer at Qwest Field costs $8.50, $1.25 more than the supposed16 ounces, according to a Seahawks spokeswoman. But for Saturday's NFC wild-card game against the New Orleans Saints, all beer will be 20 ounces and cost $7.25.
"This is the first time we have been alerted to this fact," said a statement from First & Goal, which manages the stadium for the Seahawks. "Upon our internal investigation this afternoon, we discovered the cups that are marked 16 oz. hold 20 oz. of liquid. Fans who purchased a 16 oz. beer actually received 20 oz. of beer for the 16 oz. price. Fans that purchased the 20 oz. beer received the amount they purchased."
Sounds like a good deal, unless fans who bought 20-ouncers are upset about the extra buck-and-a-quarter they didn't need to shell out.
The statement said First & Goal officials did not know when the mix-up began and would try to solve the problem as quickly as possible.
Take your time. Until then, most Seahawks fans will view it as a glass half full — and drink up.
Comment -
Another small write up I had in LB's thread that MAY apply...
Not one person actually has any good to say about the Saints that matters...
1) They are superbowl Champs... So what... They won last year... If the MIGHTY Carolina Panthers got 5 more yards on the last drive on week 3, the Champs are 1-2 and likely NOT making the playoffs... they did.. they made a run.. here we are... Yes.. they are good... Clearly... But How good...
2) Saints won 6 in a row... 7 of 8 even....As mentioned... Against what we know now were weaker teams...
Dallas - Should have Lost if Roy Williams wasn't an idiot...
Cinci - Last Minute Come From Behind
St. Louis - on Saints 4 Yard line Bradford INT in last minute of First half returned - Game over...
Cleveland in Week 6 - Colt McCoy TORCHES the Saints for 9-16 - 74 Yards Passing... to win 30-17 IN Orleans...
Brees in that game was 37-56 for 356 yards w 2 TD's and 4 INTS... AT HOME... In the DOME... against a 1-5 CLEVELAND team...
3) NO Dominates ALL important Stats... - Sure.. They do... But again... Winning against a weak schedule, while the Hawks got the Sheit kicked out of them... ALOT...
Want SOME sort of Bullsheit Stats that show at least a hope to match all the Bullsheit Stats that have been displayed so far -
Seattle's Defense has allowed 4.2 Y/C Rushing.. NO.. 4.3...
Leon Washington is 3rd Leading Kick returner with 1461 Yards - NO Leader Returner - Roby who is now on the IR... Pierre Thomas is in Charge of that department now along with the Bushman...
Sacks - Sea 13th Ranked (37) - Clemons (11) - Sea Brock (9) Ranked 10th and 22nd in the NFL
NO - 18th ranked (33) Ellis (6), Smith (5.5) - Ranked 39th, and 49th ...
INT's - Seattle Ranked 26th with just 12 picks - 5 of which are to S Thomas (5) - 9th in NFL..
NO - Seattle Ranked 32nd -With Leader Jenkins (2) - 58th in NFL
Really..Stats are nice when building a case.. they are tools... The difference is the little things... which one of them I'm saying is the conditions of which the game is being played... A tipped ball here, a bad decision there... Seattle Stays close... and makes a game... Or NOT... Brees opens up with a 74 yard drive and Washington Fumbles the Kickoff to make it 14-0 Saints 4 minutes in... Maybe that will happen... I'm just saying I don't think it will...
anyone that thinks this game isn't even a "little" tougher than it sounds... take the easy 10.5 and kill it... Make us all proud...Comment -
With Ivory and Roby out... Henderson, who has 6 kick returns this year will be the man... Possibly the Bushman, but he has only returned it once this year..
Out of 52 Kick Returns this year, Roby and Thomas have returned it 40x (77%)...Comment -
Pinny is gifting NO on a platter at 9.5 30 min before game time... Clearly Sea has ZERO Chance right
.. Books LOVE giving away $
Comment -
1 Unit - Sea +423
3 Units - Sea +10
2 Units - Sea +7 1H
0.5 Units Parlay - Sea + O45.5 + NYJ + O44.5Comment -
Wow... NO didn't score a TD on their first drive... How did that not happen?Comment -
Hawks can't compete... Saints are Bigger, Stronger.. Better looking...
They win in EVERY major Statistical Category... They will be up 35-0 at HALF TIME...Comment -
Hawks aren't up.. Clear MISPRINT!!Comment -
Ok WTF... we'll take out first, and probably ONLY cash of the night
CASH
2 Units - Sea +7 1HComment -
TD Hawks... up 11... Superbowl Champs way too good though...Comment -
Uh o... AD Saints now with 6 min left... down 4...Comment -
uhhhh
OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
MMMMMMMMMMMMMM
GGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!Comment -
Books baybee!... BOOKsSSSS!!!Comment -
great job that was money you just made my friendsbrComment -
What the heck...
Originally posted by BetterBiznessComment -
Cash...
+9.25 UnitsOriginally posted by BetterBizness
Still alive...
0.5 Units Parlay - Sea + O45.5 + NYJ + O44.5Comment -
Pure Press on momentum....
3 Units NYJ +1
5 Units Over 44Comment -
Over looks in tough... could be 5 units given back in a hurry... but the thing is they ARE passing it... just not completing it... Lots of stopped clock at least...Comment -
WOW... hell of an ending to save face on a Horrible Over call...
Got some of that over money back on that kick taking an in game line of 32.5 though... I HEART Nick Folk!!!Comment -
Baltimore -3 @ KC O/U 40.5
I used to be a HUGE KC fan back in the day... Now though.. for some reason.. Not so much...
I look at the Chiefs this year and Despite all the hype... Did they really Win the Division, or was it a SD team that beat themselves... Clearly with 2 Duds in Oakland and Denver there was really just one team to beat... which they did...once...
Why I mention the division is that in in my opinion.. THIS was the worst division in Football... The only team that was REALLY, REALLY good... beat themselves, and gave the honour of representation to This KC team that won just... no lie... TWO of it's inter-divisional games... They lost BOTH games to the Raiders, 1 to the Chargers, and 1 to the lowly Broncos... The 2 wins they got were by a TD to SD and by 4 to those same lowly Broncos...
Now winning 10 games is always a good thing.. but as we look at quality of wins... Who did they beat... No really?
The 5 out of 6 to end the year... Ten, StL, Den, Sea, Ari...
The 5 of 7 to start the year - SD, Cle, SF, Jac, Buf...
Of these... what, Jac and SD are of some sort of quality... but the rest?
Did I mention they lost TWICE to the RAIDERS???
Baltimore on the other hand... won 12 games... Losing only to NE, Atl, Pit, and well Cinci (?)...
Arguably, their final 6 of 7 they beat up on some bad teams as well...
Cinci, Cle, Hou, and Car... but also had some good wins against NO and TB... They also beat the Jets, PIT, and Miami this year... (Scoring 26 on the tough Fish D)... They also won 4 games in arguably the toughest division in football splitting their Games with Pit and Cinci.. and beating a gamey Cle team twice...
Just based on Quality of schedule I think looking at this game Baltimore is in a VERY good position to beat up on what I feel is a much lesser team in the Chiefs...
In Fact to take it a step further... the Baltimore Losses were literally by an average of 4 points... (5,5,3,3) ... They are in EVERY game, and when it comes to the spread of 3 points, just ONE time didn't cover 3, which was in week 1 @ the Jets...
I'm mostly basing this play on Quality of Schedule, and what they've done with it... I believe that the upsets stop tomorrow, and that the line which was readily available in many places at 2.5 early in the week, is now 3 everywhere... and now most are juicing it...
I don't see this as a gimme, but I really don't feel KC is in a good spot here...
Thus
4 Units Baltimore -3
1 Unit OverComment -
GB @ Phi -1,-2,-3 O/U 46.5
The odd line with about an hour to do reflects the fact that Whatever side you're on.. You're getting the line you want... Pinny Is as low as -1, and BoDog -3 ... more on this later..
The Pack are in this game despite losing 3 of 4 after they were 7-3... Forcing them to win their last 2 to get into the playoffs... All in all the Pack have just ONE really good game/half played in their last 4, and that's literally the 2H vs the Giants... It's not exactly inspiring confidence in betting the pack... Despite their best effort as 14 point dogs versus the Pats, the Pack have NOT put together a complete game of dominance in 5 weeks at home vs the 49'ers...
Green Bay has LOST their last 3 on the road, (by 4,4,3) versus NE, Det, and Atl... Now off to Phily...
Phily has lost 2 in a row, but throwing out the last throw away vs Dallas, they lost unexpectedly vs Minny playing their backup QB Webb... Before that, they were on the ropes in EACH of their last 3 wins (NYG, Dal, Hou) going into the 4Q... Every game, particularly the Giants game, they came from behind... Looking further at this odd trend...
Phily, taking away their last game vs Dal, has been behind after 3Q in their last FIVE games , (despite being ahead Vs the Giants 6 games ago, were also behind early in the 4th) ...
Are the Packers worthy of a 1H bet .. well since there are no 3rd Q bets... using the same games, Phily in order of recency has been 0,-21, +4, +10, -8, +10 ... so no... Clearly No huge advantage there... but what is the trend saying of Trailing in the 2H? Basically if history follows the trend, the Packers will be up at SOME POINT in the second half when Vick will attempt to weave his magic...
So what's that say about the Packers 2H?
In order of recency... Their past 11, Pack have shown in 2H - (points allowed, Differential)
Vs Chi 0 (+10)
Vs NYG 3 (+21)
@ NE 17 (-4)
@ Det 7 (-4)
vs SF 3 (+17)
@ Atl 10 (+4)
@ Min 0 (+14)
vs Dal 0 (+17)
@ NYJ 0 (+6)
vs Min 7 (+7)
vs Mia 10 (0)
They have lost just 2 - 2nd halfs... all by 4, BOTH on the road vs NE (No Rogers), Det (Rogers got knocked out)... Rogers is a 2H guru... the ONLY games GB lost this year in the second half were WITHOUT Rogers... I am going to say that unless Phily gets a HUGE lead, as they did vs Washington, that it's VERY clear that GB are 2H masters... I am daring to say that Phily, if down, will NOT be able to recover this time around against a team that Specializes in stopping you with their OFFENSE as MUCH as their Defense...
I think the pick here is the Pack... on the Road... ending the huge year for the Eagles...
If you like the Pack, now with 20 minutes before kickoff... you can find them +3 at Bodog... and if you like the Eagles.. -1 On Pinny and others...
I will also say that this play may have a slight correlation to it in that IF GB IS able to stop Phily, particularly in the 2H, that they would have done it with solid methodical drives keeping Phily's offense off the field... and keeping the score down...
Thus
4 Units Packers +1 (+101)
1 Unit parlay Packers +1 + Under 46.5 (+258)Comment -
Nice write ups. I been on GB all week good luckComment -
WOW.. What a gift from Pinnacle giving the Phily Backers -1... Definitely look for a better number if you are on the Pack....Comment -
Cash 3 Units on the Incredible 2H Defense of the Ravens... The only thing they didn't do is score a TD for the over...Originally posted by BetterBiznessComment -
Loving our start... lets see if we can hold on to this pace in the 2QComment -
Any leans for 2H?Comment
