Does the public EVER take a home dog? Week 4

[NFL49ers]

What was the homedog ATS record last week?

[rallymonkey]

on the jags already at +9

and i kno they arent at home but 9ers +7

[canepole]

go ahead

[jaks440]

I'm on Jax -- will be on the Browns too...although that is my homer pick so very little $$

I have Lions and Panthers as system plays, although I don't think I have enough confidence to actually put a bet down on either of those teams at this point (with injuries/rookie QB)

[dwang0725]

I live in NY and it's so hard taking the Giants -4 over a 3-0 team. They have looked horrible over their first 3 games.

[BillAccpetor]

Road dogs are the way to go... Esp. in NFL...

Forget the home dogs they will rarely cover the spread...

[bretb27]

Public is getting killed this year....Vegas won with the Chiefs, Bills, Falcons, Browns, Rams and Bears covering. Only 4 games went the public's way this week. Look to play against the public so far.

I was with the public on the eagles, Bengals, and steelers and cashed all three. Of course the public will be wrong more than they are right, but that's gambling. Like you guys said earlier you have to pick your spots.. just taking every dog or fading the public doesn't guarantee money. I will be with the majority this week on the jets and bears, call me square I don't mind a bit.

[onetrickpony]

I dont know the homedog ats but i know the ats dog is 29-18-1, will this trend continue for anybody that keeps track for past years?

[BustedPretext]

Yeah it's cool to be super "sharp" and bet week 3 Jax and TB heavy as home dogs.

Until Sunday at 5pm when you're out a couple hundy. Public isn't always wrong, Vegas isn't always right. Know your spots and pick your plays.

I like bears +4 this week despite the short week and road game. Giants are in a bad way and getting worse. CHI should keep it close. I also like Buffalo at home. Jets offense really isn't THIS good. Believe me. Fitzpatrick is a bit of a spark, Edwards was a statue and king of the checkdown.

[borednaz]

I like the Bears and I like the Eagles. However sometimes it's more profitable just sit at home and enjoy a game or two. I really want to just watch those two.

[JR007]

What was the homedog ATS record last week?

check LB thread I posted it in there.

[mandude]

Yes the home dogs look like theyll be barking again this week. I'm not a fan of Jax +9. They have shown me nothing at all but I can't say I like laying -9 with Indy here. I think Stl +1 may be a good play but I need to see Jacksons status for this one. They held him out of practice today with a groin problem. If he's good to go they have a good shot at covering this. If not I'm not sure I want to put money on Stl without their best player. That guy has made Bradfords job a lot easier with the attention he demands from opposing defenses.

[k13]

Yeah it's cool to be super "sharp" and bet week 3 Jax and TB heavy as home dogs.

Until Sunday at 5pm when you're out a couple hundy. Public isn't always wrong, Vegas isn't always right. Know your spots and pick your plays.

I like bears +4 this week despite the short week and road game. Giants are in a bad way and getting worse. CHI should keep it close. I also like Buffalo at home. Jets offense really isn't THIS good. Believe me. Fitzpatrick is a bit of a spark, Edwards was a statue and king of the checkdown.

If you took Dal Jax TB Chiefs ML like a sharp, you'd be up money.

Sure the public will win some but in spots like these, more often they will lose.

Betting public road dogs with the line moving the other way, that's even a better idea lol

[big0mar]

I like Browns and Rams.

Jags are going to get crushed though. They are so slow on defense.

[JimmysEgo]

I'm on the Bills. Home dog. Against the public. Line moved in the wrong direction then came back to where it started.

[Pauulzcappin]

How did this do on week 3?

[NardVa]

Browns +3 (98% on Cincy so far)
Rams +1 (75% on Seattle)
Jags +8 (97% on Indy)
Raiders +3 (96% on Houston)
Dolphins +1 (81% on New England)

Also, have to fade the favorite public road dog -- it's going to be the Bears. 72% already on Chicago +4.

Giants -4

I like the Rams, Browns and Dolphins at home to all win straight up. If I had to go with just one it would be the Dolphins at home.

[uanl]

i think there is very good value on teams like the jags, browns, raiders, bills ..maybe rams...right now because after 3 weeks the public perception is probably to fade these teams..so the line is probably a little inflated which favors and gives value to these teams that the public see as bad...

my top lean right now is the browns..i also like bills, rams, dolphins in that order... not sure i wanna play raiders or jags

[lakerboy]

Road dogs are the way to go... Esp. in NFL...

Forget the home dogs they will rarely cover the spread...

home dogs are 13-8 ats this year . road dogs are doing good as well at 15-12


dogs are 28-20 overall. thats money.

[DblDeuce]

I'm all over the Browns +3!

[DblDeuce]

Best bet for me!

[dakid420]

Rams won't cover

[JimmysEgo]

Home dog parlay party package coming right up.

[k13]

How many dogs have won SU this year so far?

[Rookie-Capper]

Rams could win but dont over spend

[No coincidences]

Browns +3 (98% on Cincy so far)
Rams +1 (75% on Seattle)
Jags +8 (97% on Indy)
Raiders +3 (96% on Houston)
Dolphins +1 (81% on New England)

Also, have to fade the favorite public road dog -- it's going to be the Bears. 72% already on Chicago +4.

Giants -4

You're right!



I just had a long conversation with two of my square buddies about taking the Giants on SNF. They both thought I was nuts. Again. Just like the week before and the week before that and the week before that.

Public's betting trends are like a broken record. These guys are proof positive. They just can't get it through their heads that inferior teams can and will cash at home.

4-1 with Dolphins pending....

[No coincidences]

FTR, that's 16-7-1 on my posted home dogs this season.

A lot of + money. You should be well into the black if you're tailing these plays. Just remember:

1) Take home dogs, especially if RLM validates the play
2) Fade popular public dogs; they're horrible at picking them
3) Buy low, sell high in the NFL (NYG-CHI tonight a perfect example)

[rallymonkey]

FTR, that's 16-7-1 on my posted home dogs this season.

A lot of + money. You should be well into the black if you're tailing these plays. Just remember:

1) Take home dogs, especially if RLM validates the play
2) Fade popular public dogs; they're horrible at picking them
3) Buy low, sell high in the NFL (NYG-CHI tonight a perfect example)

miami fits to a 't' then, no? rlm...even crossed zero...coming off a national tv loss

[No coincidences]

miami fits to a 't' then, no? rlm...even crossed zero...coming off a national tv loss

Yes, they do -- if you feel comfortable betting against NE.

I'm always skittish about going against the Colts or Pats in any spot, but the Dolphins do fit this formula very well.

[uanl]

FTR, that's 16-7-1 on my posted home dogs this season.

A lot of + money. You should be well into the black if you're tailing these plays. Just remember:

1) Take home dogs, especially if RLM validates the play
2) Fade popular public dogs; they're horrible at picking them
3) Buy low, sell high in the NFL (NYG-CHI tonight a perfect example)

well said No Coin. I was able to make a killing today!

cheers

[jeeves]

Nice weekend, sir

[No coincidences]

FTR, though, Pinny still has MIA at +1.

I'll keep an eye on the line movement and bet -- or not bet -- accordingly tomorrow night.

[No coincidences]

well said No Coin. I was able to make a killing today!

cheers

Nice weekend, sir

[JNic]

jax played very well im kicking myself for not backing them

[No coincidences]

Even for CAR +21? I have numbers favoring Detroit and Carolina. Any team going to the superdome is going to come in full force...yes even the shitty ones. This is NFL.

CAR+21/DET+22

We'll see.

Nice call.

It's always better to go in that direction with teases vs., say, teasing GB and NO down.

You get the occasional blowout in the NFL that will hurt, but they don't happen very often -- especially with 12-plus point faves. Those definitely aren't the money makers.