Does the public EVER take a home dog? Week 4

[No coincidences]

Browns +3 (98% on Cincy so far)
Rams +1 (75% on Seattle)
Jags +8 (97% on Indy)
Raiders +3 (96% on Houston)
Dolphins +1 (81% on New England)

Also, have to fade the favorite public road dog -- it's going to be the Bears. 72% already on Chicago +4.

Giants -4

[chimp]

at least 3 out of those 5 home dogs will cover imo

[falconticket]

Rams might

[slacker00]

Rams + Phins are setting up for a perfect wong teaser. Just gotta let that line move 1/2 a point through the next few days.

[McBa1n]

4 of the 5 lines listed are pretty juicy for taking the chalk, if you asked me. Jags +8 being the only one I'd hesitate on. Of course, I agree with the assesment that probably 3 of those home dogs will cover.

[t-wizzle]

No coin, you loveeeee home dogs.

[SpreadSniper]

the public are sheep being herded by what looks like "easy money"

[Hat McCulloch]

Houston and the Bengals look easy, but ya never know. the Rams have played tough all year. Dolphins can hang with New England but the Pats are one of those teams who could look bad against Buffalo then win by 28 the next week

[bretb27]

didn't the public do pretty well last week? You know just because the majority of people are on a bet doesn't make it a bad play. Bookies also make money on people who parlay all of those teams together and go 4 for 5.. meaning you lose money by playing all the "sharp" teams.

[bretb27]

I'm not disagreeing with your above picks, by the way. just thinking out loud

[NOLA42]

Giants looks like the play imo

[No coincidences]

No coin, you loveeeee home dogs.

I've gone 4-2, 4-0-1 and 4-4 with 10 SU wins in the first three weeks at + money -- why wouldn't I?

[No coincidences]

Again, the only thing that concerns me is that oddsmakers like to stomp out trends -- especially in the NFL. So pick and choose the games you like. Don't just blindly take every home dog.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

I like the Jags +9

[Someguy123]

I love Miami here.
I like Raiders.
With a gun to my head choosing from the other 3 teams I would take Jaguars.

I really think Dolphins has better D and Offense than New England. I think it shows over the last 3 weeks.

[hitman2010]

Miamia, Rai and Rams are my favor here.

[HauntingTheHoly]

Browns +3 (98% on Cincy so far)
Rams +1 (75% on Seattle)
Jags +8 (97% on Indy)
Raiders +3 (96% on Houston)
Dolphins +1 (81% on New England)

Also, have to fade the favorite public road dog -- it's going to be the Bears. 72% already on Chicago +4.

Giants -4

Browns push, Rams lose, Jags Cover, Raiders lose, Dolphins win on the ML, and Giants suck my balls (lose).

Send points Sunday evening everyone, thanks.

[rsnnh12]

I'm liking the Patriots this week. The defense has looked pretty shoddy, other than week 1, but that offense is moving almost at will. Over the last 2 weeks, the biggest reason their drives have failed is because of big penalties on 1st or 2nd down, putting them in a hole. If they can get their discipline back in order, they should roll by at least 7 on MNF. If Fred Taylor is back, the combo of him with Benjarvus Green-Ellis and Woodhead makes their running game a threat, and now there are 5 legitimate receiving threats. Don't be surprised if the Pats put up 35+ on this Dolphins team

[jolmscheid]

Browns +3 (98% on Cincy so far)
Rams +1 (75% on Seattle)
Jags +8 (97% on Indy)
Raiders +3 (96% on Houston)
Dolphins +1 (81% on New England)

Also, have to fade the favorite public road dog -- it's going to be the Bears. 72% already on Chicago +4.

Giants -4

Can I ask where you get these public percentages from? Do you just use the SBR odds? Thanks!!

[jolmscheid]

By the way, anyone have a filter where they will bet opposite the public on certain percentages?

[texhooper]

don't bet against peyton manning. it's just not wise, esp after the week one embarrassment. any of those other ones i would take a stab at though, as of today.

[uanl]

hey N.C. .. ur misssing the Bills +5 vs the Jets ..

[officepoolguy]

didn't the public do pretty well last week? You know just because the majority of people are on a bet doesn't make it a bad play. Bookies also make money on people who parlay all of those teams together and go 4 for 5.. meaning you lose money by playing all the "sharp" teams.

Public is getting killed this year....Vegas won with the Chiefs, Bills, Falcons, Browns, Rams and Bears covering. Only 4 games went the public's way this week. Look to play against the public so far.

[htown2la]

cin -3 cleveland will cin will this matchup??? is c. palmer too old

[gryfyn1]

I like the Browns, and the Jags to at least keep it close vs Indy.

Like the Rams too, Sea looks like its going to be one of those teams that plays well at home and like trash on the road. (Rams win the NFC west?)

Dolphins always play NE tough in Miami.

Oakland is really the only one I don't like, Houston can take advatage of a team that makes mistakes --

[No coincidences]

hey N.C. .. ur misssing the Bills +5 vs the Jets ..

You're right!



I just had a long conversation with two of my square buddies about taking the Giants on SNF. They both thought I was nuts. Again. Just like the week before and the week before that and the week before that.

Public's betting trends are like a broken record. These guys are proof positive. They just can't get it through their heads that inferior teams can and will cash at home.

[therber2]

Tease Carolina and Detroit. What do you guys think?

[Rod1010]

Giants Eagles Browns dolphins are my plays for the week.

[uanl]

Tease Carolina and Detroit. What do you guys think?

i think there are better teases out there...detroit will probably be without jhavid best and carolina has looked really bad. ..both teams will be on the road...

[uanl]

Giants Eagles Browns dolphins are my plays for the week.

like them all except the eagles...i'll be on the skins

[Jhart2838]

Tease Carolina and Detroit. What do you guys think?

actually i would tease NO down and the total up to play the under. There is NO WAY i would put my money on a rookie quarterbacks 2nd start in the superdome.

[therber2]

actually i would tease NO down and the total up to play the under. There is NO WAY i would put my money on a rookie quarterbacks 2nd start in the superdome.

Even for CAR +21? I have numbers favoring Detroit and Carolina. Any team going to the superdome is going to come in full force...yes even the shitty ones. This is NFL.

CAR+21/DET+22

We'll see.

[agharah1]

I like the Texans because the Raiders are just so incredibly bad. I get that Houston's D isn't that great but when you've got Bruce Gradkowski missing wide open receivers it doesn't really matter. Miami/New England, Seattle/St. Louis, and Cinci/Cleveland are tossups. Jackonville has shown me nothing, and if Philly's D which gave up 32 pts to the Lions could handle them I don't see why the Colts would be any different. As for Chicago and New York, it would be mind boggling that the Bears have the chance to start 4-0 because their first four opponents out-choked them. The key to beating the Bears is to sit back and wait for them to beat themselves. But that hasn't been happening.

Detroit hasn't beaten the Packers on the road in almost 20 years. After the way the Pack screwed up vs. the Bears you can pretty much expect them to name their score vs. the Lions at home.

[OTL]

I love Miami here.I really think Dolphins has better D and Offense than New England. I think it shows over the last 3 weeks.

Miami should be able to run the ball at will against the Pats, and their defence will take care of the rest.

[Rod1010]

like them all except the eagles...i'll be on the skins

i meant the skins too my bad. eagles -6? are you kidding!!!