Pocket Change's "Keeping Track" NFL Picks

[PocketChange]

Here is the full lineup:

Week 9 Sunday November 7

Chargers @ Titans
Play : Under 50
- No Gates, where are Chargers going to get points from?

Cardinals @ Vikings
Play: Vikings -7.5

Bucs @ Falcons
Play: Falcons -10

Jets @ Lions
Play: Lions +6

Chiefs @ Raiders
Play: Under 41



-- Dropped my Chargers lean due to Gates inactive. Everything else is solid.

[PocketChange]

Worst week this year. Will recap shortly.

[PocketChange]

Week 9 Sunday November 7

-RECAP-


Chargers @ Titans
Play : Under 50 LOSE
- No Gates, where are Chargers going to get points from?

Cardinals @ Vikings
Play: Vikings -7.5 LOSE

Bucs @ Falcons
Play: Falcons -10 LOSE

Jets @ Lions
Play: Lions +6 WIN

Chiefs @ Raiders
Play: Under 41 LOSE


Week 9: 1-4 -3.3 units
Overall 14-13 +5.4 units

[PocketChange]

Week 10 Sunday November 14

Chiefs @ Broncos
Play: Broncos +1.5 5 unit play

Cowboys @ Giants
Play: Cowboys +12.5

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Play: Seahawks +4

Chaser today with the Bronocs game. No way they lose ATS as home dogs this year.

[PocketChange]

3-0 on the day today with a big cash on my first 5 unit play of the year. Great way to follow up a bad week. More to come.

[PocketChange]

Week 10 Sunday November 14
-RECAP-

Chiefs @ Broncos
Play: Broncos +1.5 5 unit play WIN 49 Broncos 29 Chiefs
-This was my largest unit play thus far. Last time Broncos as home dogs was vs Jets deservedly so. This time against division opponent? @Broncos is tough, no way they lose twice ATS as home dogs.

Cowboys @ Giants
Play: Cowboys +12.5 WIN 33 Cowboys 20 Giants
Cowboys have talent, and the shakeup at HC is what was needed for it to show up. Giants have no right to be laying that many points against talent.

Seahawks @ Cardinals
Play: Seahawks +4 WIN 36 Seahawks 18 Cardinals
-'Hawks playing for 1st place +4 was a gift. I'm guessing people forgot that the previous week drubbing at the hands of the Giants saw Whitehurst behind center.

Chaser today with the Bronocs game. No way they lose ATS as home dogs this year.

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3-0 on the day, huge bounce-back week. I haven't had any consecutive losing weeks. This week I didn't get too hasty, I picked my spots and put the money on the table with a good hand.

WK9: 3-0 +7 Units

[PocketChange]

Not a ton of games to like this weekend. Although I really like the Bills in Bills @ Bengals.

[PocketChange]

Week 11 Sunday + Monday November 21 + 22

Raiders @ Steelers
Play: Steelers -6.5 (hook)

Bills @ Bengals
Play: Bills +5

Cardinals @ Chiefs
Play: Cardinals +9 3 UNIT PLAY

Broncos @ Chargers
Play: Chargers -9.5 4 UNIT PLAY
Play: Over 50


I am looking to have a huge week this week. Chargers could be favorited by 2 TDs and they would still cover. Also, I have capped that game at a total of 59. If you'll see my past picks I don't take overs that often but this one is a good one. Nevermind some of the injury concerns the Chargers have, they are rested and will come out firing in their typical second half of the season form. I'll take Bills two-in-a-row over the trainwreck that is the Bengals. +5 is good. Chiefs are not a top tier team that can be giving away 9 points, give me a break.

[PocketChange]

2-1 on Sunday but Cardinals losing pick was a 3 unit play. Should have stuck with my gut about the Bills play and put the $ there. No worries, tonight will be huge.

[PocketChange]

Missed going 4-1 this week by a missed field goal last night on the total. It's alright, another consecutive winning week. Recap to follow.

[PocketChange]

Week 11 recap

Week 11 Sunday + Monday November 21 + 22

-RECAP-

Raiders @ Steelers
Play: Steelers -6.5 (hook) WIN 35 Steelers 3 Raiders

Bills @ Bengals
Play: Bills +5 WIN 49 Bills 31 Bengals

Cardinals @ Chiefs
Play: Cardinals +9 3 UNIT PLAY LOSE 31 Chiefs 13 Cardinals

Broncos @ Chargers
Play: Chargers -9.5 4 UNIT PLAY WIN 35 Chargers 14 Broncos TOTAL:49
Play: Over 50 LOSE


I am looking to have a huge week this week. Chargers could be favorited by 2 TDs and they would still cover. Also, I have capped that game at a total of 59. If you'll see my past picks I don't take overs that often but this one is a good one. Nevermind some of the injury concerns the Chargers have, they are rested and will come out firing in their typical second half of the season form. I'll take Bills two-in-a-row over the trainwreck that is the Bengals. +5 is good. Chiefs are not a top tier team that can be giving away 9 points, give me a break.

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Good call on the Chargers and Bills. Chargers -9.5 was my play of the year. Rivers just carves the Broncos in November. Bills have a team fight in them and the Bengals have zero chemistry. +5 was gracious. My only total play fell short by a missed FG. I think I'm going to just lay off the Chiefs now. They have legitamate threats at RB WR TE DEFENSE and special teams talent.

Was hoping for 4-1 but a winning week is a good week. Thanksgiving plays coming up.


WK11: 3-2 +2 units

2011 to date: 20-15 +14.4 units

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[PocketChange]

Week 12 Thursday November 25 -HAPPY THANKSGIVING-


Patriots @ Lions
Play: Over 51 5 UNIT PLAY

Bengals @ Jets
Play: Jets -8.5
Play: Under 43 3 UNIT PLAY


Patriots @ Lions. This total will be ridiculous. Big televised stage, Lions at home. Pats will hang 5+ TDs on 'em themselves with the Lions cleaning up in garbage time-- if not actually keeping it competitive. Either way it goes over. Jets game will be something like 20-7. Bad Bengals run D, lots of Jets grinding run game with an early lead. Bengals just won't put up that many points.

Don't fade me on Thanksgiving.


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[PocketChange]

Today I am thankful for the fight the Lions have shown all year:

Patriots @ Lions 38-24 with half a quarter to go. Patriots have just hung their 5th TD.


Thanksgiving dinner will taste even better tonight.

Guaranteed +1 units today, waking up early in the AM to purchase new toys.

Best of luck to you all, I would advise taking the @Jets under.

[PocketChange]

Very good Thanksgiving. 3-0 +9 units. Just got back from purchasing ridiculous toys. Some black Friday deals are legit, and some have sucker written all over them.

Even though Thanksgiving is over, I am thankful for the JV team that is the Bengals.

Recap to follow.

[PocketChange]

Just realized we're 9-2 through the past 3 weeks. Things are heating up.

[PocketChange]

Week 12 Thursday November 25 -HAPPY THANKSGIVING-

-RECAP-

Patriots @ Lions
Play: Over 51 5 UNIT PLAY WIN 45 Patriots 24 Lions / Total =69

Bengals @ Jets
Play: Jets -8.5 WIN 26 Jets 10 Bengals
Play: Under 43 3 UNIT PLAY WIN Total =36


Patriots @ Lions. This total will be ridiculous. Big televised stage, Lions at home. Pats will hang 5+ TDs on 'em themselves with the Lions cleaning up in garbage time-- if not actually keeping it competitive. Either way it goes over. Jets game will be something like 20-7. Bad Bengals run D, lots of Jets grinding run game with an early lead. Bengals just won't put up that many points.

Don't fade me on Thanksgiving.



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Total on the Pats @ Lions was indeed ridiculous with the Pats almost single-handedly covering it themselves. Lions kept it competitive enough that the Pats needed to keep scoring-- one scenario I predicted would play out. Shame on those who took the Bengals ML. Despite not always winning in convincing fashion, the Jets just find a way to win. The Bengals? Exactly. The Bengals are in such disarray, do not discount team chemistry. In addition, do count on points being left on the table. 10 points at halftime? Under was a real beauty.

Do not play for televised action. You should feel that each bet defines you. How would my friends feel about me taking the Bengals ML? Friends don't let friends make ass-hat picks.


WK12: 3-0 +9 units

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[PocketChange]

Week 12 Sunday November 27


Rams @ Broncos
Play: Broncos -3.5

Packers @ Falcons
Play: Falcons -2

Chargers @ Colts
Play 1: Chargers +3 3 UNIT PLAY
Play 2: Under 51.5


Rams have yet to win on the road under rookie Bradford, and it's not likely going to turnaround @Denver. With the "spygate" 2.0 revelation, McDaniels' job is seriously on the line. He will have the team ready to play big. Chargers have always played the Colts well. They just seem to have their number. I have been eyeing this game for a while and I'm glad the Chargers are sitting at 5-5. It's November, you know what the means for the Chargers. Don't be fooled by the high powered offenses here, you're likely to see plenty of defense. See some of their most recent past match-ups.


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[PocketChange]

Correction: That is Week 12 Sunday November 28 above.

Might be adding a play. I keep looking at the Seahawks but I said I would stay away from the Chiefs.

[PocketChange]

I am going to $hit on the books this week. With Thursday's games I like my chances of going 7-0. At worst I see 6-0-1.

I WOULD ADVISE AGAINST CHARGERS ML. I can see them losing by a late field goal. Just take the points at worst end in a tie.

The over in that game is also a bad bet.

[PocketChange]

Matty ice getting it done. I am gonna go ape$hit this week.

Parlayed all my points also on Den -3.5 / Bolts-Colts under 50.5

[PocketChange]

Getting things going now. 3-1 today hitting the big 3 unit play, 6-1 on the week including Thursday. Despite the total being very close to going over in tonight's Bolts & Colts game, under was the correct play all along. I warned strongly against falling in love with the two prolific passers. Recap and explanations to follow.

[PocketChange]

Bankroll up. I will continue to grind but I have also afforded myself the luxury of mixing in some parlays. Today would have seen a loser however with Denver deciding to show up late. I really liked that play. I will be very picky.

[PocketChange]

Week 12 Sunday November 28

-RECAP-


Rams @ Broncos
Play: Broncos -3.5 LOSE 36 Rams 33 Broncos

Packers @ Falcons
Play: Falcons -2 WIN 20 Falcons 17 Packers

Chargers @ Colts
Play 1: Chargers +3 3 UNIT PLAY WIN 36 Chargers 14 Colts

Play 2: Under 51.5 WIN Total: 50


Rams have yet to win on the road under rookie Bradford, and it's not likely going to turnaround @Denver. With the "spygate" 2.0 revelation, McDaniels' job is seriously on the line. He will have the team ready to play big. Chargers have always played the Colts well. They just seem to have their number. I have been eyeing this game for a while and I'm glad the Chargers are sitting at 5-5. It's November, you know what the means for the Chargers. Don't be fooled by the high powered offenses here, you're likely to see plenty of defense. See some of their most recent past match-ups.


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The way the Broncos played in the 4th was how I was certain they would look out the gate and all the way through. Bad loss. The Pack/Falcons game was too easy to pick. You've got a fairly even matchup and you're getting the home team at less than a FG. A home team that has Matt Ryan behind center. You saw it in the 4th.

Bolts/Colts total was a fantastic play. As I mentioned previously there would be more defense than initially thought; Chargers not scoring a TD until the 4th and the Colts only putting up 14 points. The opportunistic defense that the Chargers showed however I could not account for, putting up two pick-6's. In the end, even with those two plays, the total stays under. I really felt this game would end something like 24-23, given their past matchups and didn't feel comfortable enough taking the ML. Congratulations to those who pulled the trigger on that call.



Week 12: 6-1 +13 units

Year-to-date: 26-16 +27.4 units


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[PocketChange]

Some guys are playing the entire week's lineup. Really? I suppose if it works for you--great! But personally I think there's just no way you can get an angle on that many games.

[PocketChange]

Glad I have been staying away from any Chiefs games, I can't figure this team out. I will warn however that I see a lot of people are taking the Broncos at +9 -- don't. I would stay away from this game. Broncos already in shambles, add to it no Dawkins a DB and a WR. I just can't bring myself to lay that many points with the Chiefs--no bets for me.

[PocketChange]

Week 13 Leans: Bills, Dolphins, Bucs, Cowboys, Ravens, Rams/Cards Over

Full lineup/analysis to follow

[PocketChange]

Week 13 Sunday December 5



Redskins @ Giants
Play: Giants -7 (-115)

Steelers @ Ravens
Play: Ravens -3 (PK)

Rams @ Cardinals
Play: Over 43 2 Units


May add more of the games I was leaning soon, but I LOVE those plays above. Public is on the under Rams @ Cardinals after seeing how inept the Cards are. But I'll tell you exactly what will happen in the game: Rams score quickly and often. Cardinals can't afford to embarass themselves like they did Monday night and will keep it competetive. Just look at the line -- It tells you everything you need to know. Rams are good for a few TDs, are a heavy public favorite against possibly the worst team in the NFL at only -3. Cardinals will play especially after Anderson embarassed himself. He'll be playing with a giant chip on his shoulder. Good for the total.

[PocketChange]

I really want to increase the units on the Rams @ Cardinals game. The more I look at it, the more confident I am. Anybody have opinions on this total? Maybe I will start a new thread to get some.

[PocketChange]

Week 13 Sunday December 5

Adding:

Browns @ Dolphins
Play: Dolphins -5.5 (-105)

Im aware of the Dolphins problems at home, but I just don't see how they don't get it done here. Public heavy on the Browns.
AD out for the Vikings but Gerhart seemed to pick up the slack. With the new coach I just can't fully side with the Bills.

[PocketChange]

If I can have a WK13 winning week, I'll be up over 30 units. With that I would love to turn an office area into my "wagering think-cap area". Anybody have a special area like this? I like to take this seriously. "I’m just telling you, right now, what I do every single week. Every single week, I put my freaking heart and soul into this. I study my ass off. I don’t go out there and laugh. It’s not funny. Nothing’s funny to me." BOL to you all.

[PocketChange]

Awful weekend. Still, it didn't bury me, but I thought I was looking at a pretty solid card.

[PocketChange]

Week 13 recap

Week 13 Sunday December 5

-RECAP-


Redskins @ Giants[/color]
Play: Giants -7 (-115) WIN 31 Giants 7 Redskins

Steelers @ Ravens
Play: Ravens -3 (PK) LOSE 13 Steelers 10 Ravens

Rams @ Cardinals
Play: Over 43 2 Units LOSE 19 Rams 6 Cardinals

Browns @ Dolphins
Play: Dolphins -5.5 (-105) LOSE 13 Browns 10 Dolphins


May add more of the games I was leaning soon, but I LOVE those plays above. Public is on the under Rams @ Cardinals after seeing how inept the Cards are. But I'll tell you exactly what will happen in the game: Rams score quickly and often. Cardinals can't afford to embarass themselves like they did Monday night and will keep it competetive. Just look at the line -- It tells you everything you need to know. Rams are good for a few TDs, are a heavy public favorite against possibly the worst team in the NFL at only -3. Cardinals will play especially after Anderson embarassed himself. He'll be playing with a giant chip on his shoulder. Good for the total.

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Awful week. Mostly close one's except for the @Cards total. I didn't think it was possible for them to embarass themselves that bad two weeks in a row. I hate posting when I have a bad week but here it is anyway. Good news is that I haven't had consecutive losing weeks this year so let's get em next week.


WK13: 1-3 -3.25 Units
To Date: 27-19 (59%) +24.15 Units


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[PocketChange]

Week 14 Sunday December 12

Browns @ Bills
Play: Bills PK

Seahawks @ 49ers
Play: 49ers -5

Bengals @ Steelers
Play: Steelers -9 (EVEN)

Packers @ Lions
Play: Lions +6.5

Looking for the bounceback week. Sure to get it here.


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[PocketChange]

3-0 so far this IS the bounce back.

[PocketChange]

Hope you guys pounded the 49ers. They will CRUSH the Seahawks.