Pocket Change's "Keeping Track" NFL Picks

[PocketChange]

Hi everyone, I am creating this thread for the sake of tracking my plays. I've found some success with the NFL, not really wise with numbers, but I've done ok otherwise based on a few stats and my good 'ole gut!

Monday, September 13

Chargers @ Chiefs

Play: Under 45.5

I expect this game to be something like 24-13. There will be plenty of ground attack between the two with the Chiefs getting the tandem of Jones and Charles established. Of course Chargers will do plenty of the same with their rookie #1 pick RB Mathews. Lots of punting + field goals tonight as these two try to figure out their offenses with new coordinators and players.

[PocketChange]

Monday, September 13

Chargers @ Chiefs

Play: Under 45.5 WIN

I expect this game to be something like 24-13. There will be plenty of ground attack between the two with the Chiefs getting the tandem of Jones and Charles established. Of course Chargers will do plenty of the same with their rookie #1 pick RB Mathews. Lots of punting + field goals tonight as these two try to figure out their offenses with new coordinators and players.

FINAL SCORE : 21-14
-Game looked how I expected it to with KC rarely converting on 3rd down.

NFL 2010 posted record 1-0

[PocketChange]

Week 2 plays coming up soon. Leans: Broncos, Panthers, Redskins

[PocketChange]

Sunday, September 19th

Chiefs @ Browns
Play: Browns -1
-Browns at home is a good pick here. Beat themselves up last week with multiple turnovers after an early lead. KC missing injured Tyson Jackson who had a good game last week. KC just awful.

Seahawks @ Broncos
Play: Broncos -3
Play: Over 40
-Sea plays well at home, but coming into Den they simply won't be able to score enough to overcome the Broncos and their stadium. Broncos O more talented than given credit for. Clear skies.

Texans @ Redskins
Play: Redskins +3
Play: Under 43.5
-Skins home dogs I'll take it. I'm playing it more based on the line with the Texans beating out Indy last week, but the Skins believe in Shanahan already after Dallas. This game will feature plenty of defense with OC Kyle Shan. familiar with the Texans


I like the Panthers -3 but I think I'm going to lay off, still early in the season.

[PocketChange]

Sunday, September 19th

Chiefs @ Browns
Play: Browns -1 LOSE

Seahawks @ Broncos
Play: Broncos -3 WIN
Play: Over 40 WIN

Texans @ Redskins
Play: Redskins +3 PUSH
Play: Under 43.5 LOSE

WEEK 2: 2-2-1

-CHIEFS/BROWNS game will teach me to mess with two suck teams. Will keep this is mind going forward. I just thought it was a good spot--Browns had a chance, thought the home field would be enough but losing by a FG in the fourth.

-HAWKS/BRONCOS - Exactly how I knew this game would unfold. As I mentioned in my picks, Broncos offense at home would light up and the Hawks simply would not be able to keep up in a high scoring match-- hence the over.

-SKINS/TITANS - Titans were the biggest square play on the board. It shouldn't have even got to that 4th and 10 4th quarter miracle TD. Should be a win but I can live with a push. Skins D faded late and surprised me with plenty of offense to upset the under.

[PocketChange]

Sunday, October 3rd

Broncos @ Titans

Play: OVER 44

This seems too easy and it will be too easy. 3/4 public on the over, but it will still be the right play. There will be a lot of breakaway big yard plays. I expect the Titans to put up at least 35+ on their own, and Denver will be chucking it all day without any RB's.

[PocketChange]

Sunday, October 3rd

Broncos @ Titans

Play: OVER 44 WIN

This seems too easy and it will be too easy. 3/4 public on the over, but it will still be the right play. There will be a lot of breakaway big yard plays. I expect the Titans to put up at least 35+ on their own, and Denver will be chucking it all day without any RB's.

FINAL TOTAL: 46

As I mentioned in a previous post, Broncos not given enough credit for their offense.

2010 NFL record: 4-2

[PocketChange]

Week 5 Leans: Lions, Redskins, KC/IND Under

Really like the Lions in this spot. Plays to be posted soon.

[PocketChange]

WEEK 5 Sunday October 10

Rams @ Lions
Play : Detroit -3
-Lots of reasons to like the Lions here. I said I would stay away from ? teams from WK2 but this is too good to pass up. 1. (R) Bradford doesn't get 3 wins in a row especially on the road. 2. Lions need to win before their bye in 2 weeks (WK6 @ Giants).

Titans @ Cowboys
Play : Titans +6.5
-Cowboys will find a way to lose this game or keep it unnecessasarily close.

Chiefs @ Colts
Play : Under 45
-75% of the public on the over lol. Give me a break. Chiefs stay on the ground all day and do an efficient job of keeping 18 off the field-- still will only put up 13 pts.

[PocketChange]

Good weekend, looking to go 3-0. Will recap games with the conclusion of Titans @ Cowboys. Looking good with Titans up a TD to end the half.

[PocketChange]

WEEK 5 Sunday October 10

-RECAP-

Rams @ Lions
Play : Detroit -3 WIN 44-6 Lions
-Lots of reasons to like the Lions here. I said I would stay away from ? teams from WK2 but this is too good to pass up. 1. (R) Bradford doesn't get 3 wins in a row especially on the road. 2. Lions need to win before their bye in 2 weeks (WK6 @ Giants).

Sometimes you simply have to look at the intangibles of the game and pick your spots. Landslide victory from the Lions.

Titans @ Cowboys
Play : Titans +6.5 WIN 34-27 Titans
-Cowboys will find a way to lose this game or keep it unnecessasarily close.

Nail on the head here. Cowboys out of rhythm with their bye week with Titans hungry for a W and it showed both sides. Cowboys did exactly as I expected, imploding with needless penalties and costly turnovers. Titans will get it started, look for them next week.

Chiefs @ Colts
Play : Under 45 WIN 19-9 Colts
-75% of the public on the over lol. Give me a break. Chiefs stay on the ground all day and do an efficient job of keeping 18 off the field-- still will only put up 13 pts.

This was a 3 unit play that was an absolute GIFT. I was shocked to see it @45, more shocked when public play 75% on the over. Chiefs defense is formidable, with only a run game to depend on.

-----

I backed off my Redskins lean unfortunately, but it was the right no-play for me.

Quite honestly, the intangibles don't always lead me to one side (Detriot) but they can lead me to a no play if I'm on the other side. The lesson this week: Don't force anything, don't play too many games, don't fall in love with favorites, watch out for intangibles. Case in point: Chargers / Saints-- I'm sure buried a few-- both games I warned against.


WEEK 5: 3-0 +5 units

[PocketChange]

Haven't formed an opinion for MNF yet, game is a bit tricky for me. Might wait until next weekend-- enjoy the winnings, don't force anything.

[PocketChange]

Haven't formed an opinion for MNF yet, game is a bit tricky for me. Might wait until next weekend-- enjoy the winnings, don't force anything.

Last night's game was indeed difficult. It's as simple as if you picked Jets you're a winner. However, most people don't care after the fact, but was it the correct play before the game started? Jets pulled through on the last minute pick 6, and even still had a chance to lose (ATS) with a 50+ yard jumpball into the endzone thrown by Farve for the last play of the game.

[PocketChange]

Week 6 picks coming up.

[xillent23]

nice picks Pocket Change, will be follwing your thread hopefully i can do as good as you! haha.
I had the over on minn game last night... won that but the pick6 ruined my chances of hitting the parlay!
cmon week 6!

[PocketChange]

Thanks xillent, with a good WK6 I can buy some new toys I've been wanting! I'm still drilling down to my best plays, to be posted soon.

[xillent23]

thank you, please give me some good posts so i can make some money. When are you going to be putting up WK6?

[PocketChange]

Week 6 Sunday October 17

Lions @ Giants
Play : Giants -10
Play : Under 44.5
- Liked the Lions last week, they're in a bad spot this week. Giants need this home game win before traveling to @Cowboys next week before their bye in WK8. I'm not sure the Lions will put up more than 13 points.

Jets @ Broncos
Play : Jets -3 (-120)
Play : Under 41.5
- I usually don't put a ton of stock in injuries, a lot of times it doesn't work out that simply, however, the Broncos are depleted on defense and at RB. I believe the Broncos are actually overachieving at 2-3, and with a softer stretch coming up, this is the one they lose to reflect a below average record. 24-13 Jets

Chargers @ Rams
Play: Under 45
- Chargers defense a bit unnoticed due to their record-- there will be lots of punting in this game. They however, are not a strong road team and I don't expect them to "go all Phillip Rivers on 'em". See their (R) RB Mathews to do some clock-grinding after he was ineffectively misused last week. A lot of points the Chargers have given up have been on ST including last week. They won't let it happen again--coordinator's job depends on it.


Take it for what it's worth but, keep in mind the idea of betting the unders closer to game time. There are a few other games I am eyeing that I will post if I play them.

[Tower]

Thanks! and GL!

[PocketChange]

Thanks Tower, BOL to you. Guess I'll add this: Fade or tail at your own risk!

[xillent23]

pocket change.. im liking those picks! anymore you got?you think they will make the spread?!?! i am thinking of just doing ML if anything & the over/under like u sugggested.

[PocketChange]

pocket change.. im liking those picks! anymore you got?you think they will make the spread?!?! i am thinking of just doing ML if anything & the over/under like u sugggested.

Juice is high on Giants ML @-550. They will cover and then some. Just take the spread on the Jets-- if Jets win it will be by a TD or more.

[D3 Mighty Ducks]

Good luck this week.

[PocketChange]

Week 6 Sunday October 17
-RECAP-

Lions @ Giants
Play : Giants -10 LOSE 28 Giants 20 Lions
Play : Under 44.5 LOSE
- Liked the Lions last week, they're in a bad spot this week. Giants need this home game win before traveling to @Cowboys next week before their bye in WK8. I'm not sure the Lions will put up more than 13 points.

Lions really surprise me here by putting up 20 points. I know they've played well @Giants in years past but this was suppose to be a really good spot for the Giants to win convincingly at home. Would love to have a TD back. Making a mental note of laying a large amount of points + an under is a ?

Jets @ Broncos
Play : Jets -3 (-120) WIN 24 Jets 20 Broncos
Play : Under 41.5 LOSE
- I usually don't put a ton of stock in injuries, a lot of times it doesn't work out that simply, however, the Broncos are depleted on defense and at RB. I believe the Broncos are actually overachieving at 2-3, and with a softer stretch coming up, this is the one they lose to reflect a below average record. 24-13 Jets

This game was Jets or no play from the very beginning. Certainly the linesmakers knew what they were doing when they set the lines-- the Broncos came to play. The depleted Broncos however, let the more -talented- team hang around far too long and the result is what will happen more often than not.

Chargers @ Rams
Play: Under 45 WIN 20 Rams 17 Chargers
-Chargers defense a bit unnoticed due to their record-- there will be lots of punting in this game. They however, are not a strong road team and I don't expect them to "go all Phillip Rivers on 'em". See their (R) RB Mathews to do some clock-grinding after he was ineffectively misused last week. A lot of points the Chargers have given up have been on ST including last week. They won't let it happen again--coordinator's job depends on it.

My play of the week was a good one. Chargers road woes continue as expected, but their defense held the Rams to 20 points. Normally 20 opponent points would result in a win for the high-flying Chargers but this team is just awful on the road.

------

Giants game killed me this week. This team is still incomplete. With Lions QB Hill out of the game the Giants should have been able to shut it down giving the under and the spread a shot. No matter, NFL teams are beginning to reveal their true colors and games will become easier to cap. Many of the home dogs will begin losing ATS. Made it a small profitable weekend with my Chargers/Rams 3 unit play of the week.

WEEK 6: 2-3 +0.7 Units
YTD: 9-5 +7.5 Units

[PocketChange]

Week 7 picks coming up. Leans: Bucs, Chargers, Dolphins, Bears, Seahawks

[PocketChange]

Week 7 Sunday October 24

Rams @ Bucs
Play : Bucs -2.5

Redskins @ Bears
Play : Bears -3

Cardinals @ Seahawks
Play : Seahawks -6.5

No write ups today, but those are winners.

Games I will warn against playing:

Jaugars @ Chiefs- Public heavy on the Chiefs. They don't deserve this much respect. Could be upset at home.

Patriots @ Chargers- Chargers were an early lean for me, there is a lot of bad blood b/w these two. But I had to make it a no play because the Chargers are depleted @ WR. #1 + #2 + Gates. Public all over the Pats, but Chargers are good at home. DO NOT PLAY THE PATS.

[PocketChange]

Week 7 Sunday October 24

-RECAP-


Rams @ Bucs
Play : Bucs -2.5 LOSE 18 Bucs 17 Rams

Redskins @ Bears
Play : Bears -3 LOSE 17 Redskins 14 Bears

Cardinals @ Seahawks
Play : Seahawks -6.5 WIN 22 Seahawks 10 Cardinals

-----
First losing weekend. Pretty bad losses. Back at it week 8.

YTD: 10-7 +6.3 units

[PocketChange]

Week 8 picks coming up. Leans: Lions, Raiders, Saints

[PocketChange]

Week 7 Sunday October 24

Dolphins @ Bengals
Play : Bengals +1 (2 units)
-Dolphins huge emotional/physically draining game last week vs. steelers. Bengals will defend home today.


Redskins @ Lions
Play : Lions -2.5 (3 UNIT PLAY-OF-THE-WEEK)
-Lions better than their record show. Register a win at home today to show that.

Titans @ Chargers
Play : Chargers -4.5 (2 units)
-Another home team better than their record shows. Chargers always play the Titans well.

Bucs @ Cardinals
Play : Cardinals -3 (-125) (2 units)

Steelers @ Saints
Play : Saints -1 (-120) (2 units)
-More home team favorites, public all over road dog Steelers tell me something is up. Saints win big.


Bit of a chaser today after last week but today would be the day. I expect to go 5-0 today--very solid card.

[PocketChange]

Correction: That is WEEK 8 October 31 above.

[PocketChange]

Forgot to include my Raiders pick unfortunately (which was probably the easiest pick of the year) but I won't include it in my posted record. Recap to follow.

[PocketChange]

WEEK 8 Sunday October 31

-RECAP-


Dolphins @ Bengals
Play : Bengals +1 (2 units) LOSE 22 Dolphins 14 Bengals
-Dolphins huge emotional/physically draining game last week vs. steelers. Bengals will defend home today.


Redskins @ Lions
Play : Lions -2.5 (3 UNIT PLAY-OF-THE-WEEK) WIN 37 Lions 25 Redskins
-Lions better than their record show. Register a win at home today to show that.

Titans @ Chargers
Play : Chargers -4.5 (2 units) WIN 33 Chargers 25 Titans
-Another home team better than their record shows. Chargers always play the Titans well.

Bucs @ Cardinals
Play : Cardinals -3 (-125) (2 units) LOSE 38 Bucs 35 Cards

Steelers @ Saints
Play : Saints -1 (-120) (2 units) WIN 20 Saints 10 Steelers
-More home team favorites, public all over road dog Steelers tell me something is up. Saints win big.

------

As I mentioned previously I forgot to post my Raiders pick, but oh well. It was a 4 unit play, it was my favorite pick of the year so far. Got back to another winning week.


Week 8 3-2 +2.5 units
Play of the week: 2-0
Year to date: 13-9 (59%) +8.7 units

[PocketChange]

WEEK 9 Picks coming up. Leans: Vikings, Falcons, Lions, Raiders/Chiefs Under

[PocketChange]

Week 9 Sunday November 7

Chargers @ Titans
Play : Under 50
- No Gates, where are Chargers going to get points from?

Vikings

Falcons

Lions

Raiders/Chiefs Under

Little late on the write up. But those are my picks above. Want to get them in before the games start






Redskins @ Bears
Play : Bears -3

[PocketChange]

Disregard Redskins @ Bears. Accidental copy and paste