CaptNumbers 2010 NFL Thread

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  • CaptNumbers
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-04-10
    • 250

    #1
    CaptNumbers 2010 NFL Thread
    Here is my year long post for my NFL system plays.

    Please consider the following if you decide to follow my plays:

    1. Money Management is crucial. I do not put more than 0.5% of my bankroll on any one game.

    2. I don't put any more weight on one game over another. My analysis looks for large situational variables and tries to take into account the biggest sample size possible. I would NOT RECOMMEND picking select games based on my handicapping. I would play all of them or none.

    4. I have tried to develop a system that fits into my lifestyle. I have a full time job so I will try and get my picks in by the morning of Sunday games and as early as I can for games during the week. Sometimes my system needs me wait to see how the line changes, etc. before making a play.

    5. When I do put my picks out, the line will be based on either 5Dimes, Matchbook or Bet Jamaica, as these are the books I play. The extra 1/2 point (especially in the NFL) or reduced juice is extremely important over the long run, so I encourage you to do your best to find the best wager you can, but don't let it paralyze you. I am a believer that if a play falls within my system, I will make the play getting the best odds possible.

    6. I have 2 different systems that involve playing the same games. One game is a straight One Unit per game system while the other is a modified chase system. I hesitate to call it a "chase" system, but I use different variables relating to my overall results to determine the units I will be betting on each game for that system.

    7. Please feel free to ask questions or comment on any of my posts. I love to discuss the theory used in my sports betting.

    8. Finally, have fun and enjoy yourself. If you aren't doing that then you are probably wagering more than you should be. Good luck to all.
  • CaptNumbers
    SBR Sharp
    • 08-04-10
    • 250

    #2
    09-09-10 Picks

    09-09-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
    Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
    451 Minnesota +205(ML)

    YTD Results
    ATS 0-0-0 – 0% +0.00 Units
    ML 0-0-0 – 0% +0.00 Units
    Straight Up +0.00 Units
    Modified Chase +0.00 Units
    Comment
    • CaptNumbers
      SBR Sharp
      • 08-04-10
      • 250

      #3
      09-12-10 Picks

      Previous Results
      09-09-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
      Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
      451 Minnesota +205(ML) - L

      YTD Results
      ATS 0-0-0 – 0% +0.00 Units
      ML 0-1-0 – 0% -1.00 Units
      Straight Up -1.00 Units
      Modified Chase -1.00 Units

      09-12-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
      Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
      453 Carolina +230(ML)
      456 Buffalo +145(ML)
      469 Oakland +226(ML)
      472 Philadelphia +132(ML)
      474 Seattle +135(ML)

      Good Luck to Everyone!
      CN
      Comment
      • CaptNumbers
        SBR Sharp
        • 08-04-10
        • 250

        #4
        09-12-10 Results

        Tough Week. This is a huge part of sports betting though. If you are unable to deal with days like today, sports betting is probably not for you.

        09-12-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) -2.65 Units
        Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) -2.65 Units
        453 Carolina +230(ML) - L
        456 Buffalo +145(ML) - L
        469 Oakland +226(ML) - L
        472 Philadelphia +132(ML) - L
        474 Seattle +135(ML) - W

        YTD Results
        ATS 1-4-0 – 20.0% -2.65 Units
        ML 0-1-0 – 0% -1.00 Units
        Straight Up -3.65 Units
        Modified Chase -3.65 Units

        If there are picks for Monday Night, they will be posted tomorrow.
        Comment
        • CaptNumbers
          SBR Sharp
          • 08-04-10
          • 250

          #5
          09-13-10 - Monday Picks

          09-13-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
          Modified Chase (1.25 Units Each)
          482 Kansas City +185(ML) (1.25 to win 2.31)

          Good luck to all!
          CN
          Comment
          • CaptNumbers
            SBR Sharp
            • 08-04-10
            • 250

            #6
            09-13-10 - Monday Results

            Previous Results
            09-13-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
            +1.85 Units
            Modified Chase (1.25 Units Each) +2.31 Units
            482 Kansas City +185(ML) (1.25 to win 2.31) - W

            YTD Results

            ATS 0-0-0 – 0% +0.00 Units
            ML 2-5-0 – 28.6% -1.80 Units
            Straight Up -1.80 Units
            Modified Chase -1.34 Units
            Comment
            • CaptNumbers
              SBR Sharp
              • 08-04-10
              • 250

              #7
              09-19-10 Picks - Week 2 - Sunday

              09-14-10 / 09-18-10
              No Plays

              YTD Results
              ATS 0-0-0 – 0% +0.00 Units
              ML 2-5-0 – 28.6% -1.80 Units
              Straight Up -1.80 Units
              Modified Chase -1.34 Units

              09-19-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
              Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)

              213 Pittsburgh +200(ML)
              216 Detroit +6.5 +102
              217 Chicago +7 -102
              219 Tampa Bay +165(ML)
              221 Arizona +6.5 +100
              223 Miami +200(ML)
              234 NY Jets +142(ML)
              235 NY Giants +200(ML)


              Good luck to everyone today!
              -CN
              Comment
              • CaptNumbers
                SBR Sharp
                • 08-04-10
                • 250

                #8
                09-20-10 Picks - Week 2 - Monday Night

                We had a great Week 2 so far with the ML plays really adding overall value to the system. This is a large part of where I find +EV in the NFL.

                Good luck to everyone!
                -CN

                Previous Results
                09-19-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +7.09 Units
                Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +7.09 Units
                ATS 2-1 +1.02 Units
                ML 4-1 +6.07 Units
                213 Pittsburgh +200(ML) - W
                216 Detroit +6.5 +102 - W
                217 Chicago +7 -102 - W
                219 Tampa Bay +165(ML) - W

                221 Arizona +6.5 +100 - L
                223 Miami +200(ML) - W
                234 NY Jets +142(ML) - W

                235 NY Giants +200(ML) - L

                YTD Results
                ATS 2-1-0 – 66.7% +1.02 Units
                ML 6-6-0 – 50.0% +4.27 Units
                Straight Up +5.29 Units
                Modified Chase +5.29 Units

                09-20-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                238 San Francisco +214(ML)
                Comment
                • CaptNumbers
                  SBR Sharp
                  • 08-04-10
                  • 250

                  #9
                  NFL Picks 09-20-10 - Week 2 - Monday Night RESULTS

                  Monday Night Results
                  09-20-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) -1.00 Unit
                  Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) -1.00 Unit
                  238 San Francisco +214(ML) - L

                  YTD Results
                  ATS 2-1-0 – 66.7% +1.02 Units
                  ML 6-7-0 – 46.2% +3.27 Units
                  Straight Up +4.29 Units
                  Modified Chase +4.29 Units
                  Comment
                  • CaptNumbers
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 08-04-10
                    • 250

                    #10
                    09-26-10 Picks - Week 3 - Sunday

                    09-26-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                    Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                    401 Buffalo +14.5 -109
                    403 Cleveland +12.5 -105
                    406 Tampa Bay +130(ML)
                    408 Carolina +161(ML)
                    409 Atlanta +162(ML)
                    418 St. Louis +210(ML)
                    420 Jacksonville +130(ML)
                    422 Denver +5.5 +102


                    Good luck to everyone!
                    -CN
                    Comment
                    • CaptNumbers
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 08-04-10
                      • 250

                      #11
                      09-26-10 Picks - Week 3 - Sunday - RESULTS

                      09-26-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +1.72 Units
                      Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +1.72 Units
                      ATS 2-1 +1.00 Units
                      ML 2-3 +0.72 Units
                      401 Buffalo +14.5 -109 - W
                      403 Cleveland +12.5 -105 - W
                      406 Tampa Bay +130(ML) - L
                      408 Carolina +161(ML) - L
                      409 Atlanta +162(ML) - W
                      418 St. Louis +210(ML) - W
                      420 Jacksonville +130(ML) - L
                      422 Denver +5.5 +102 - L


                      YTD Results
                      ATS 4-2-0 – 66.7% +2.02 Units
                      ML 8-10-0 – 44.4% +3.99 Units
                      Straight Up +6.01 Units
                      Modified Chase +6.01 Units
                      Comment
                      • CaptNumbers
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 08-04-10
                        • 250

                        #12
                        09-27-10 Picks - Week 3 - Monday

                        09-27-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                        Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                        430 Chicago +138(ML)
                        Comment
                        • CaptNumbers
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 08-04-10
                          • 250

                          #13
                          09-27-10 Picks - Week 3 - Monday - RESULTS

                          09-27-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +1.38 Units
                          Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +1.38 Units
                          430 Chicago +138(ML) - W

                          YTD Results
                          ATS 4-2-0 – 66.7% +2.02 Units
                          ML 9-10-0 – 47.4% +5.37 Units
                          Straight Up +7.39 Units
                          Modified Chase +7.39 Units
                          Comment
                          • CaptNumbers
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 08-04-10
                            • 250

                            #14
                            10-03-10 Picks - Week 4 - Sunday

                            10-03-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                            Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                            205 Detroit +14.5 -102
                            207 Carolina +12 -102
                            209 San Francisco +7 -110
                            209 San Francisco +280(ML)
                            214 Buffalo +6 -110
                            216 Jacksonville +7 -104
                            216 Jacksonville +292(ML)
                            218 Oakland +183(ML)
                            219 Arizona +10 -109

                            Here's to hoping that we have a great week. Remember when you gamble daily, you always need to be looking for +EV with your plays. This is one of the cornerstones of the picks I choose.

                            Best of luck!
                            -CN
                            Comment
                            • CaptNumbers
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 08-04-10
                              • 250

                              #15
                              10-03-10 Picks - Week 4 - Sunday - RESULTS

                              10-03-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +2.73 Units
                              Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +2.73 Units
                              ATS 4-2 +1.81 Units
                              ML 1-2 +0.92 Units
                              205 Detroit +14.5 -102 - W
                              207 Carolina +12 -102 - W
                              209 San Francisco +7 -110 - W

                              209 San Francisco +280(ML) - L
                              214 Buffalo +6 -110 - L
                              216 Jacksonville +7 -104 - W
                              216 Jacksonville +292(ML) - W

                              218 Oakland +183(ML) - L
                              219 Arizona +10 -109 - L


                              We had a great chance of having an absolutely fantastic day if the DB from San Francisco would have just laid down after his interception at the end of the game. This is all part of betting though. I know it may seem discouraging when that happens, but keep in mind it is all about finding situations with +EV and the ML plays are a major part of that. Overall, another winning day. You can never complain about that. Remember, do your best to keep your emotions of our handicapping and you will be much better off than the rest of the betting community.

                              Enjoy the rest of your day!
                              -CN
                              Comment
                              • CaptNumbers
                                SBR Sharp
                                • 08-04-10
                                • 250

                                #16
                                10-04-10 - Week 4 - Monday Plays

                                10-04-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                No plays

                                Good luck to those of you who do!
                                -CN
                                Comment
                                • CaptNumbers
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 08-04-10
                                  • 250

                                  #17
                                  10-10-10 Picks - Week 5 - Sunday

                                  10-10-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                  Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                  415 Kansas City +7 +106
                                  420 Cleveland +145(ML)
                                  421 Tampa Bay +6.5 +100
                                  426 Washington +120(ML)
                                  427 NY Giants +152(ML)
                                  430 Arizona +250(ML)
                                  432 Oakland +6.5 -105
                                  432 Oakland +260(ML)

                                  Here's to a great Sunday. Best luck to all!
                                  -CN

                                  Comment
                                  • CaptNumbers
                                    SBR Sharp
                                    • 08-04-10
                                    • 250

                                    #18
                                    10-10-10 Picks - Week 5 - Sunday (Additional Play)

                                    10-10-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                    Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                    415 Kansas City +7 +106
                                    420 Cleveland +145(ML)
                                    421 Tampa Bay +6.5 +100
                                    426 Washington +120(ML)
                                    427 NY Giants +152(ML)
                                    430 Arizona +250(ML)
                                    432 Oakland +6.5 -105
                                    432 Oakland +260(ML)
                                    ***Additional Play – Added 4:45pm***

                                    435 Philadelphia +160(ML)
                                    Comment
                                    • CaptNumbers
                                      SBR Sharp
                                      • 08-04-10
                                      • 250

                                      #19
                                      10-10-10 Picks - Week 5 - Sunday - RESULTS

                                      I can't ask for much better of a Sunday. I really feel as though we are finding the right plays and exploiting the value. Hopefully, this is something we can continue to do for the remainder of the season.
                                      -CN

                                      Previous Results
                                      10-10-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +9.42 Units
                                      Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +9.42 Units
                                      ATS 2-1 +1.00 Units
                                      ML 5-1 +8.42 Units
                                      415 Kansas City +7 +106 - L
                                      420 Cleveland +145(ML) - L

                                      421 Tampa Bay +6.5 +100 - W
                                      426 Washington +120(ML) - W
                                      427 NY Giants +152(ML) - W

                                      430 Arizona +250(ML) - W
                                      432 Oakland +6.5 -105 - W
                                      432 Oakland +260(ML) - W

                                      435 Philadelphia +160(ML) - W

                                      YTD Results
                                      ATS 10-5-0 – 66.7% +4.83 Units
                                      ML 15-13-0 – 53.6% +14.71 Units
                                      Straight Up +19.54 Units
                                      Modified Chase +19.54 Units
                                      Comment
                                      • CaptNumbers
                                        SBR Sharp
                                        • 08-04-10
                                        • 250

                                        #20
                                        10-11-10 Picks - Week 5 - Monday

                                        10-11-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                        Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                        No plays

                                        Good luck to those of you that do!
                                        -CN
                                        Comment
                                        • CaptNumbers
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 08-04-10
                                          • 250

                                          #21
                                          10-17-10 Picks - Week 6 - Sunday

                                          Small card today. There is a 4:00 game that is too close to call right now. I will post it later if it is a play. Good luck to all!
                                          -CN

                                          10-17-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                          Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                          221 Seattle +6 +101
                                          221 Seattle +234(ML)
                                          225 Cleveland +14 -104
                                          Comment
                                          • CaptNumbers
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 08-04-10
                                            • 250

                                            #22
                                            10-17-10 Picks - Week 6 - Sunday - Additional Plays

                                            There were 2 more plays that developed. Here they are. Best luck the rest of the day!
                                            -CN

                                            10-17-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                            Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                            221 Seattle +6 +101
                                            221 Seattle +234(ML)
                                            225 Cleveland +14 -104
                                            ***Additional Plays – Added 3:15pm***
                                            230 San Francisco -7 -108
                                            234 Washington +156(ML)
                                            Comment
                                            • CaptNumbers
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 08-04-10
                                              • 250

                                              #23
                                              10-17-10 Picks - Week 6 - Sunday - RESULTS

                                              10-17-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) +2.31 Units
                                              Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) +2.31 Units
                                              ATS 2-1 +0.97 Units
                                              ML 1-1 +1.34 Units
                                              221 Seattle +6 +101 - W
                                              221 Seattle +234(ML) - W

                                              225 Cleveland +14 -104 - L
                                              ***Additional Plays – Added 3:15pm***
                                              230 San Francisco -7 -108 - W
                                              234 Washington +156(ML) - L

                                              YTD Results
                                              ATS 12-6-0 – 66.7% +5.80 Units
                                              ML 16-14-0 – 53.3% +16.05 Units
                                              Straight Up +21.85 Units
                                              Modified Chase +21.85 Units
                                              Comment
                                              • Seven4os
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 09-10-10
                                                • 61

                                                #24
                                                Profitable day. Nice going.
                                                Comment
                                                • CaptNumbers
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 08-04-10
                                                  • 250

                                                  #25
                                                  Thanks Seven! Let's hope we can keep grinding it out every week!
                                                  -CN
                                                  Comment
                                                  • CaptNumbers
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 08-04-10
                                                    • 250

                                                    #26
                                                    10-18-10 Picks - Week 6 - Monday

                                                    10-18-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                                    Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                                    No plays

                                                    Good luck to any of you who do!
                                                    -CN
                                                    Comment
                                                    • CaptNumbers
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 08-04-10
                                                      • 250

                                                      #27
                                                      10-24-10 Picks - Week 7 - Sunday

                                                      Here is the full card for today. Let’s hope we have a better day in the NFL than we did in College yesterday. Best of luck to all!
                                                      -CN

                                                      10-24-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each)
                                                      Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each)
                                                      405 Cincinnati +180(ML)
                                                      407 Jacksonville +9.5 -108
                                                      413 Cleveland +12.5 -106
                                                      415 Buffalo +12.5 -103
                                                      421 Arizona +7 -107
                                                      Comment
                                                      • CaptNumbers
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 08-04-10
                                                        • 250

                                                        #28
                                                        10-24-10 Picks - Week 7 - Sunday - RESULTS

                                                        10-24-10 Straight Up (1.00 Units Each) -1.15 Units
                                                        Modified Chase (1.00 Units Each) -1.15 Units
                                                        ATS 2-2 -0.15 Units
                                                        ML 0-1 -1.00 Units
                                                        405 Cincinnati +180(ML) - L
                                                        407 Jacksonville +9.5 -108 - L

                                                        413 Cleveland +12.5 -106 - W
                                                        415 Buffalo +12.5 -103 - W

                                                        421 Arizona +7 -107 - L

                                                        YTD Results

                                                        ATS 14-8-0 – 63.6% +5.65 Units
                                                        ML 16-15-0 – 51.6% +15.05 Units
                                                        Straight Up +20.70 Units
                                                        Modified Chase +20.70 Units
                                                        Comment
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