EP36's Half-Time Adjustments

[EaglesPhan36]

Had some moderate success just f-ing around with 2nd half plays during preseason. Wanting to track this as preseason continues and into the regular season where it really counts. All bets are for one unit.

Nothing fancy about how I'll be picking these. Checking stats at half time, basing plays on the total number of plays ran at the half, team's offensive scheme, defense, score, etc. For preseason more-so, knowing the backups and what they're trying to accomplish by being out on the field. Obviously will be picking and choosing games and not doing this for all games. Starting with tonight's Monday Night game.

Nothing "proven" about any of this, just something I wanted to try all season long to see how I do. Follow at your own peril. Beat me like a dead horse for your pleasure.

[EaglesPhan36]

8.23.10: Cardinals-Titans Over 17 [+100]

[SECOND SHIFT]

GOOD LUCK!!! i LIKE IT TOO!!!!

[EaglesPhan36]

RECORD: 1-0 [+1.00]

See yooze guys on Thursday.

[EaglesPhan36]

8.26.10: Rams-Patriots Over 17 [-115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-0 [+2.00]

[EaglesPhan36]

8.28.10: Browns +3 [-105]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-1 [+0.95]

Gonna stick to totals in preseason at least. Smarter plays, I think.

[EaglesPhan36]

8.28.10: Giants-Ravens OVER 17 [-115]
Would expect the Giants to give Manning some more reps after a woeful 1st half offensively. Ravens offense did whatever they wanted against the Giants. Even if Flacco doesn't see any more reps or not many more, Bulger & Troy Smith should still have opportunities to move the ball. Lots of plays run in the 1st half, nearly 67% were passing.

[EaglesPhan36]

8.28.10: Titans-Panthers UNDER 17 [-120]
Panthers have shown ZERO offense from 1st team to 3rd team in the preseason. 0-0 at the half, I don't know that it matters if the starters play another quarter. Look for more bland play to finish it off with the scrubs.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 2-3 [-1.40]

No play. Did not get in time.

[EaglesPhan36]

8.29.10: Steelers-Broncos OVER 17 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 3-3 [-0.40]

[EaglesPhan36]

9.2.10: Bengals-Colts OVER 17 [+100]
Ready to see some rookies and low-end vets make some mistakes that lead to points.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-3 [+0.60]

21 points in the 3rd Q alone.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.2.10: Packers-Chiefs OVER 17 [-110]
Packers haven't gone vanilla too much. Young QBs need some time in this 2nd half. Think these two coaches will let them have their cracks. Jobs on the line, effort hard to the finish line.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 4-4 [-0.50]

Packers kept chucking it but could not finish their drives for crap. Even went with an onsides kick after scoring a late FG. Got the ball down to the KC 29 and failed. Oh well.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.2.10: Chargers-49ers OVER 16.5 [-110]
Yes, another over. Don't know if Volek will play a ton more or if Crompton is going to get more reps for SD. Chargers moved the ball, but Volek was an INT machine + fumbles. Carr & Davis already split time for SF. Running game was good for SF. 46 yard TD for Dixon. Miscues could lead to more points.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5-4 [+0.50]

[EaglesPhan36]

9.13.10: Ravens-Jets OVER 17 [-125]
Ravens had some success passing. Neither could run. Expecting the passing games to do more. Turnovers are going to be massive. Dumb penalties help too.

[Rixsaw]

If Flacco stops lobbing the ball up for grab, the Ravens would be up 21-6. He looks like Marcus Russell in the 1H. I like the over too. Good luck.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 5-5 [-0.75]

Going to also be doing some NCAA 2nd halves as warranted, will post them here to track as well. Fading me is probably well worth your money right now.

[spal2811]

still doing prop bets for the NFL this year Eagles?

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: Ball State-Purdue OVER 21 [-110]
Ball State missed a couple of FGs, but has moved the ball on Purdue. The Boilers are ahead 14-0 - all points in the 1st Q - but really need to put together a nice half somewhere to build some offensive confidence with Marve.

[EaglesPhan36]

I don't do a lot of prop bets in NFL. Team totals now and again when they look good. Trying something new this year to avoid making too many bets hopefully. I am going to try and stick to doing a couple 2nd half bets [probably one per time slot on Sundays] and probably will play the one game every week I feel most confident about.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 6-5 [+0.25]

Thought for sure Ball State missing their XP early in the half was going to bone this, but got it done in the 4th quarter. Makes up for poor prep on my part in picking UNT-Army OVER with the UNT starting QB injured.

[EaglesPhan36]

Never mind. Scratch that ECU pick. Could not get the bet in because my book was being screwy.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: Alabama-Duke OVER 25.5 [-110]
'Bama is in full blow out mode with their backup QB in for some reps already in the 1st half. The plus here is that Duke actually moved the ball well late in the half against the Tide, scoring 13 in the 1st half. I don't think Alabama is going to just be content with handing the ball off on every play and even if they do, Duke hasn't shown the ability to stop them from getting big yards on the ground [163 on 15 carries]. Duke also ran 10 more plays than Bama in the 1st half.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.18.10: Houston-UCLA OVER 28 [-110]
Keenum may be out with a knee injury, but I don't think that is going to slow things down that much. Houston left points on the field with turnovers and their defense can't stop UCLA. Whether it's Keenum or his back-up, Houston has no choice but to play catch-up. UCLA should use this as a chance to build their confidence.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 6-7 [-1.95]

Turnovers crushed that Houston-UCLA one. I think there were three or four turnovers in the red zone.

One play outside of the half time plays on Sunday:

9.19.10: Panthers-Buccaneers UNDER 39 [-110]
Panthers may wind up starting a rookie QB. Bucs offense is hardly potent. Defenses may score more than the offenses.

[EaglesPhan36]

Scratch that. Too late again.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.19.10: Cardinals-Falcons OVER 20 [-105]
Even if the Falcons just try to grind it out on the ground up 24-7, Arizona has not shown the ability to stop them from moving the ball. Arizona has moved the ball, but has made some mistakes to leave points on the field. Anderson should keep chucking it, could mean turnovers and/or points.

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 7-8 [-2.00]

Falcons had a heart up 34 points not going for a FG which would have pushed the 2nd half total. Yay! UNDER for the Panthers-Bucs hit with ease. Looking to Sunday Night next.

[EaglesPhan36]

9.19.10: Giants-Colts OVER 47.5 [-110]

[EaglesPhan36]

Record: 8-8 [-1.00]