Joe_'s '10 Thread

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Finally: Friendly fire is off.

Let's get to work; write-up to follow soon.



9/12/2010: Steelers [Moneyline / +120] ($500 to win $600)

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Finally: Friendly fire is off. Let's get to work; write-up to follow soon. 9/12/2010: Steelers [Moneyline / +120] ($500 to win $600)

This still grades out as my best play tomorrow; $500 added to the moneyline (now +110).

Good luck.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Some thoughts on the Falcon/Steeler match-up:

• I liked the "speed-read" package that Bruce Arians had installed for Dennis Dixon's only action against Baltimore last year. Arians sought option looks against a defense with Jarrett Johnson/Terrell Suggs whom set the edge hard, and had speed to match. Rashard Mendenhall has to really take care of the ball if this is to be the case.
• Yes, Dixon had a rather horrible outing at Denver a few weeks ago, but what I saw was a coaching staff forcing him into purposely unrealistic situations to see how he'd respond in even the most impractical scenarios. In a meaningful outing, those opportunities would be yielded to Jeff Reed, taking the field goal every time.
• Color me unimpressed with Dunta Robinson and his supposed return to form.
• Chris Owens is not tough; Hines Ward might be --- just a wee bit.
• Thomas DeCoud and Curtis Lofton should be the linchpins in this gameplan, keying the run. They are outstanding players, but I think this game could be a showcase of Maurkice Pouncey getting to the 2nd-level to make many-a-key-block.
• Will Witherspoon is an athletic and psychotic freak on the field, but I think Heath Miller will gradually get behind him in soft pockets and settle into a good rhythm with Dixon.
• Trai Essex and Kemo will be a wash, at best, with the interior rotation of Atlanta's, but, with Jonathan Babineaux out, this a much brighter scenario for PITT backers.
• This will be a slow, slow game, ever more so than most would think with PITT's 'D' and Dixon under center; the lack of lateral speed with Max Starks/Flozell Adams will necessitate Mendenahall/Redman taking most of the carries between the tackles.
• Antonio Brown could keep Emmanuel Sanders on the inactive list for a few more games with a possible breakout return here.
• I'm hoping that Arians sticks with David Johnson as the lead blocker in this game --- dude is a fvcking hoss.
• PITT's defense is beyond reproach when hearkening back to '08, as Aaron Smith and Troy were fully healthy --- both have convalesced well.
• With his game based on hustle, technique, and positioning, Sam Baker may even be outworked by Brett Keisel. He may not be overpowered, but, further, Baker's squatty frame should be a major deficiency in trying to keep Deebo square when he's trying to handle his bull-rush; advantage (as always): Harrison.
• Justin Blalock often seems to look just too akward at times, and can't keep consistent contact upon defenders. I think trying to pick up Lawrence Timmons on backside pursuit will be the bane of all those who have Michael Turner starting in their fantasy leagues tomorrow.
• Harry Douglas could be worrisome in the slot, and is a good blocker downfield.
• Aaron Smith is back, yes. And I cannot tell you how crucial this is for what LeBeau wants to accomplish and yield coverage-wise on 1st/2nd-down. Harvey Dahl is tough bastard, but his tougness will be bested here. Tyson Clabo is a large man, but I think Smith will have Clabo's shoulder pad laces undone by halftime (get those hands in, dude, or you're fvcked).
• I'm not going to get really in depth with how integral Troy will be here, but the cover-3 SCIF concept that LeBeau runs keys on his presence.
• Keenan Lewis may see time at left boundary corner in sub packages, as Roddy White is moved a lot; Ike Taylor may be assigned to shadow him pre-snap, and upon motion.
• PITT has the best set of pass rushers in an odd front, and likely in the league. Protect that face, Matty.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

I'll be off at the sportsbook tomorrow, but if I hit with Pittsburgh, I'll let it all ride on my only other play of the day: San Francisco (Moneyline / -145).

Here a few thoughts:

• Gus Bradley was retained by Pete Carroll as the defensive coordinator, but I'm still perplexed as to how preplexed he has appeared managing the skill set at his disposal for parts of last season, and in the preseason.
• Aaron Curry is being misused as an 'elephant' in the scheme, who's being dropped into coverage too often.
• Darryl Tapp was a quality starter and could take pass rush reps inside, but was also misused and then dealt to Philly this offseason.
• Lawrence Jackson: Gone.
• Chris Clemons is being counted on as a consistent pass rusher? I'm not so sure of this proposal.
• Red Bryant has lost some weight, but is now a base-end in a de facto 4-man front?
• These aforementioned factors should auger well for the youngsters on San Fran's O-line.
• There's been too much attrition in trades, yielding too many green players to step up (Walter Thurmond at DB, namely).
• I think Mansfield Wrotto , Tyler Polumbus, Chester Pitts will break down fundamentally as the games progresses, sliding over to left tackle here against Parys Haralson and Travis LaBoy.
• Deion Branch should be the main target here along with John Carlson, but Golden Tate will have to come through in huge fashion as Deon Butler may yet still be just a guy with great speed and no hands/concentration/route option recognition.
• Reggie Smith's emergence as the "super-sub" in Greg Manusky's packages has been huge for this unit.

This game should be really fvcking close, but I think the '9er 'D' will come through with a splash play or two and yield an extra possession than is to be expected in the 2nd half.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Fvck.

This is going to be close.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Lawrence. Fvcking. Timmons.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Troy. Fvcking. Polamalu!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Holy shit.

I'm so glad I did not put those winnings on 'Frisco, or, perhaps, namely Jimmy Raye, Alex Smith, & Michael Crabtree. It was so tempting, but my buddy reminded me of that gambler's fallacy of pushing extra bets that "don't seem" to matter right after one collects his money.

Great fvcking defensive game today. I'll have my projections out within the next day for anyone that cares.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Some thoughts on the Falcon/Steeler match-up:

• I liked the "speed-read" package that Bruce Arians had installed for Dennis Dixon's only action against Baltimore last year. Arians sought option looks against a defense with Jarrett Johnson/Terrell Suggs whom set the edge hard, and had speed to match. Rashard Mendenhall has to really take care of the ball if this is to be the case.
• Yes, Dixon had a rather horrible outing at Denver a few weeks ago, but what I saw was a coaching staff forcing him into purposely unrealistic situations to see how he'd respond in even the most impractical scenarios. In a meaningful outing, those opportunities would be yielded to Jeff Reed, taking the field goal every time.
• Color me unimpressed with Dunta Robinson and his supposed return to form.
• Chris Owens is not tough; Hines Ward might be --- just a wee bit.
• Thomas DeCoud and Curtis Lofton should be the linchpins in this gameplan, keying the run. They are outstanding players, but I think this game could be a showcase of Maurkice Pouncey getting to the 2nd-level to make many-a-key-block.
• Will Witherspoon is an athletic and psychotic freak on the field, but I think Heath Miller will gradually get behind him in soft pockets and settle into a good rhythm with Dixon.
• Trai Essex and Kemo will be a wash, at best, with the interior rotation of Atlanta's, but, with Jonathan Babineaux out, this a much brighter scenario for PITT backers.
• This will be a slow, slow game, ever more so than most would think with PITT's 'D' and Dixon under center; the lack of lateral speed with Max Starks/Flozell Adams will necessitate Mendenahall/Redman taking most of the carries between the tackles.
• Antonio Brown could keep Emmanuel Sanders on the inactive list for a few more games with a possible breakout return here.
• I'm hoping that Arians sticks with David Johnson as the lead blocker in this game --- dude is a fvcking hoss.
• PITT's defense is beyond reproach when hearkening back to '08, as Aaron Smith and Troy were fully healthy --- both have convalesced well.
• With his game based on hustle, technique, and positioning, Sam Baker may even be outworked by Brett Keisel. He may not be overpowered, but, further, Baker's squatty frame should be a major deficiency in trying to keep Deebo square when he's trying to handle his bull-rush; advantage (as always): Harrison.
• Justin Blalock often seems to look just too akward at times, and can't keep consistent contact upon defenders. I think trying to pick up Lawrence Timmons on backside pursuit will be the bane of all those who have Michael Turner starting in their fantasy leagues tomorrow.
• Harry Douglas could be worrisome in the slot, and is a good blocker downfield.
• Aaron Smith is back, yes. And I cannot tell you how crucial this is for what LeBeau wants to accomplish and yield coverage-wise on 1st/2nd-down. Harvey Dahl is tough bastard, but his tougness will be bested here. Tyson Clabo is a large man, but I think Smith will have Clabo's shoulder pad laces undone by halftime (get those hands in, dude, or you're fvcked).
• I'm not going to get really in depth with how integral Troy will be here, but the cover-3 SCIF concept that LeBeau runs keys on his presence.
• Keenan Lewis may see time at left boundary corner in sub packages, as Roddy White is moved a lot; Ike Taylor may be assigned to shadow him pre-snap, and upon motion.
• PITT has the best set of pass rushers in an odd front, and likely in the league. Protect that face, Matty.

I'm watching the replay of this game, and I must say that my Steeler fandom returned.

This PITT defense is the reason that I took this play so large, and why benched Michael Turner in my fantasy league; fvcking domination at the point of attack (even when Casey Hampton was out with an injury).

Nick Eason and Ziggy Hood really surprised me today in rotation.

Timmons, as I thought, was in the backfield all game -- Justin Blalock looked lost.

Deebo and Woodley never let Ryan get comfortable.

Troy was, well, Troy.

Maurkice Pouncey was outstanding and looked like a 10-year veteran.

Flozell Adams exceeded my expectations, though he can still be a liability when making a deep kick-step.

David Johnson was a fvcking beast today in the run game and as I had thought, he was finally used as the primary fullback.



I'll have a write-up for the Baltimore/N.Y.J. match-up tomorrow.

Good luck.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Some musings on BAL/NYJ:

• Even before I perused the "Under Pressure Efficiency Ratings" at footballoutsiders.com I ventured a guess, by just a small set of tape, that Mark Sanchez would be low on the list. If I remember correctly he only edged out Keith Null and Trent Edwards for being the worst quarterback when blitzed/hurried. Mike Pettine may have the more "flashy" defense with the media attention of Rex Ryan's ingenuity, but Greg Mattison takes the same approach with his unit and deploys his attack with equal aplomb.
• Nope, no Ed Reed. Dominique Foxworth: Done for the year. Well, Baltimore must be fvcked, right? Well, I'm not saying that they won't be missed, but Tom Zibikowski has shown himself to be a damn-good center fielder, possessing unexpected range and a penchant for big hits. He's becoming a leader of this defense and Ray has a lot of respect for him back there aligning the secondary.
• Chris Carr, whom I played against in high school, has developed into a quality starter with a comparable skill set to Courtland Finnegan. He has "game" speed, field cognizance, and is very reliable.
• Haloti Ngata is the best run defender in the league by far -- dude could've been a wave player in the league out of high school, and is getting better each year. Damien Woody is the one player that could give him somewhat of a physical challenge, but I think Ngata is going to be reduced pre-snap to collapse Brandon Moore and get Nick Mangold off of his upfield lanes.
• Kelly Gregg retains some of the greatest positional value in the game today. Watching him going up against Nick Mangold will be a treat for football purists.
• I like Cory Redding and Trevor Pryce getting 3rd-down looks against Matt Slauson -- major match-up problem.
• O'Neil Cousins is serviceable, but Jared Gaither will be missed tonight as he outplayed Michael Oher last season. Nonetheless, Oher has been shifted to the left side, and it looks as though that he has stepped up yet again.
• Sione Pouha should cause some trouble when deployed as a 5-tech, but Ben Grubbs has the mettle to make his side work.
• Matt Birk should be a steadying force when shifting the interior protection to take out Ryan's "0-grave" blitz/stunts that he favors so often. He does have to deal with a water buffalo lining up over him in Kris Jenkins, but I think he's savvy enough, having dealt with Pat Williams for a hot second, to know how to reach the shoulder of a dominant nose tackle.
• With Calvin Pace out, I think New York will need to send more pressure than ever to compensate for the lack of fresh bodies on the outside, and I think Cam Cameron will make them pay -- shitty head coach, GREAT coordinator.
• Let's see if Nick Folk doesn't revert to his shaky ways.
• I cannot see the Jets setting the edge on Terrell Suggs or Jarrett Johnson. Unless they go unbalanced for a good portion of the game, New York will have to take what they get trying to get Jameel McClain to overpursue.
• Eric Smith will be the target of a splash play in all likelihood, that is: If Brodney Pool is indeed out.

9/13/2010: Baltimore (Moneyline / +115) [$500 to win $550]

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Congrats, Raven backers.

Ngata is ridiculous.

That is all.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

2-0 so far in the regular season.

I'm finishing up my numbers for my top play, and will have the write-up for it in the next day.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

Wagers so far:

• Washington (Moneyline / +130) [2 units]
• New England (-1.5 / -110) [5.5 units]

[Joe_Shabadoo]

From a separate thread made on Wednesday made to be an addendum here:

As with my Week 1 analysis of the Atlanta/Pittsburgh match-up, my musings:

• As I mention ad infinitum, Haloti Ngata is the best interior lineman in the Game today. Wherever he's lined-up or reduced into pre-snap, Greg Mattison always has at least a contingency built into the defense to look for hot audibles away from Haloti. It may not always go smoothly, but if Jameel McClain can reduce his reaction time and take the correct angle, then the Peyton Hillis's of the world would not be such a hot commodity in the Fantasy world right now.
• Kelly Gregg is a consummate pivot man and I'm really excited to see Maurkice Pouncey match-up with an elite 0-tech. That being said, Pouncey has been a revelation to Steeler fans, whom were used to having Jeff Hartings being on the bottom rung of Steeler-Center-Legend, that have had to deal with Sean Mahan and Justin Hartwig for a hot second now. This is going to be a fvcking battle that every football fan should see.
• Cory Redding: I don't know how his concussion treatment is going so, I think there's going to be an accentuated platoon force of Trevor Pryce, Lamar Divens and Terrence Cody; the latter, finally may get some meaningful action.
• As I mentioned previously, David Johnson has seemed to take his place as the sorely needed lead blocker in this offense. He is dominant at the point of attack and has brought upon a concerted, amalgamation of what Eric Green, Mark Bruener and Dan Kreider afforded in the running game and pass protection in years past.
• LCB, Chris Carr, whom I played against in high school when I was a sophomore, is a highly underrated cover man that is quite similar to Courtland Finnegan. He is a quality, intelligent and hardnosed player with great make-up speed. He should be a good match for Hines Ward.
• Fabian Washington and Josh Wilson are steady and don't really have to worry a whole lot about Mike Wallace's route tree or catch radius, but, his speed can't be ignored. They'll be handcuffed in what they're afforded when dealing with his pure speed.
• Tom Zibikowski is a basically a combination of John Lynch, and Jim Leonard. He is a top-12 safety in my book and gets this secondary in good position.
• Dawan Landry is adept at pattern recognition, making up for his lack of top-end speed.
• I'm still amazed at how good Ray Lewis is. Not much that's new that can be said for him.
• Jarrett Johnson and Terrell Suggs are elite run defenders. I do not expect any team to have much success in setting the edge against these two, even in unbalanced sets. They are underrated, still, athletically and have excellent hand fighting skills.
• I fear that Trai Essex could get the start over Doug Legursky in this game at RG. Essex is, well, just not that good. I just don't see how he gets his spot back, if isn't just in deference to him being a veteran. Legursky has really surprised me thus far, and could be what this line needs athletically to garner some success in establishing a run game.
• Flozell Adams has been another unexpected surprise. He's taken to RT better than I thought that he could at this point of his career. He has really set the tone.
• Max Starks is steady, and still gets a good kick step even though his frame length makes it look like a sedated elephant is try to back up from a snake in its path.
• Pouncey looks like a 10-year vet, and it's just ridiculous how well he's been playing.
• Charlie Batch got away with a lot of poor throws last week, and needs to calm down a bit and take 2-3 yard scrambles when he can get them.
• Bruce Arians has usually had a good chart drawn up for Raven Week, and I think he knows that he has to stick it out with Mendenhall, whom seems to have eschewed his habitual, unnecessary spin moves and stopping his feet upon contact. He's really come along well, and is confident now.
• The unveiling of Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown in this offense will probably be held back unitl Ben's return, but Brown's presence as a returner is something that every team has to account for now.
• Aaron Smith is nearly unblockable. He's just so damned good lining head-up, that no one single player can really handle him by themself. I don't know how he does it as his age, but he's perhaps the 2nd-most valuable player on the team.
• I'm a bit concerned with Chris Hoke's probable absence. He's an integral part of this defense backing up Hampton, and gets a lot of work each game, and in goaline packages. Hopefully Nick Eason can continue his overachieving play.
• Jared Gaither's absence will likely be very prominent here more so than in any other game.
• Joe Flacco has just not done well reading his route keys against Pittsburgh, and I don't think he'll have a better time with Ray Rice going at under 100% at best. Willis McGahee is a top-tier player in blitz pick-up though.
• Derrick Mason working his options against Bryant McFadden would worry me if I was Dick LeBeau.
• Ike Taylor should be put up in a relatively close, inside-out trail technique on Boldin and should play well if he doesn't have to worry about reading Heap/Houshmandzadeh coming back underneath on smash routes, as that's how Cam Cameron has tried to keep the blitzing under control and keep Polamalu reading in a certain spots 7-yds. off of the ball.
• Lawrence Timmons, as I wrote about in the Atlanta game, has really mastered what the 'MAC' is supposed to do in this defense. He's too explosive when backside pursuit is to be accounted for, and is reacting so quickly. He is eerily similar right now to Julian Peterson circa 2000, and is a 2nd pivot piece for Mr. LeBeau, as he can play in the slot, cover a deep third, rush from the second level or with his hand in the ground, and disengage from blocks with his frame length.
• Deebo and Woodley are the best set of pass rushers/run defenders in the league within a 30-front, and, likely, the League. Well, it's certainly debateable, but I think they're set apart since Woodley is such a varied pass rusher as well.
• William Gay has returned to his own level of greatness, going back to the slot.
• The infusion of Stevenson Sylvester, Will Allen, Keenan Allen, Arnaz Battle, Crezdon Butler, Thaddeus Gibson and Jason Worilds into the Pittsburgh coverage units has been invaluable. The special teams are no longer dreadful to watch.

So, after going through this game, with recent history in mind, I'd have to lean towards taking in the value with anything at (-3) or below with Pittsburgh at home.